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Air Force Institute of Technology

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Feasibility Analysis For Predicting A Kinetic Kill Zone For Aircraft Homing Missile Defense, Mark E. Ennis Mar 1994

Feasibility Analysis For Predicting A Kinetic Kill Zone For Aircraft Homing Missile Defense, Mark E. Ennis

Theses and Dissertations

An extended Kalman filter is used to predict a kinetic kill zone for use in aircraft self defense versus homing missiles. The analysis is limited to an in-the-plane analysis and focuses on finding the model parameters which have the largest impact on the predicted kill zone. No attempt is made to optimize the design of the filter model itself. The analysis computes the kill zone relative to an assumed aircraft trajectory using strictly filter computed statistics. No Monte-Carlo simulations are used throughout the thesis. The filter assumed to be on the evading aircraft, uses an onboard laser radar (ladar) to …

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Clustering Techniques In Speaker Recognition, Douglas N. Prescott Mar 1994

Clustering Techniques In Speaker Recognition, Douglas N. Prescott

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis presents a comparison based on identification rate, of three clustering techniques applied to cepstral features for speaker identification. LBG vector quantization as developed by Linde, Buzo and Gray; is used to provide benchmark performance for comparison with Fuzzy clustering (based on the unsupervised fuzzy partition-optimal number of classes, UFP-ONC algorithm by Gath and Geva) and an Artificial Neural Network, the Multilayer Perceptron. Cepstral features from the TIMIT, King and AFIT93 corpus speaker databases are used to produce speaker-identification classifiers using each of the clustering algorithms. The experiment reported evaluates the speaker identification performance using the 20-dimensional cepstral features …

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Application Of Sequential Quadratic Programming To Large-Scale Structural Design Problems, Mark A. Abramson Mar 1994

Application Of Sequential Quadratic Programming To Large-Scale Structural Design Problems, Mark A. Abramson

Theses and Dissertations

Large-scale structural optimization problems are often difficult to solve with reasonable efficiency and accuracy. Such problems are often characterized by constraint functions which are not explicitly defined. Constraint and gradient functions are usually expensive to evaluate. An optimization approach which uses the NLPQL sequential quadratic programming algorithm of Schittkowski, integrated with the Automated Structural Optimization System ASTROS is tested. The traditional solution approach involves the formulation and solution of an explicitly defined approximate problem during each iteration. This approach is replaced by a simpler approach in which the approximate problem is eliminated. In the simpler approach, each finite element analysis …

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A Simulation Approach To Granite Sentry System Analysis, Marilyn J. Bauer Mar 1994

A Simulation Approach To Granite Sentry System Analysis, Marilyn J. Bauer

Theses and Dissertations

This study demonstrated the use of simulation modelling to analyze Granite Sentry system performance. The availability simulation model constructed provides a number of system performance measures as a function of component MTBFs and MTTRs. Analysis of failure data prior to model construction supported the generally accepted use of exponentially distributed failure rates and lognormally distributed repair times.

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Enlistment Response To Changes In Monetary Incentives: Improving The U. S. Army Enlistment Incentive Review And Allocation Process, Chester A. Char Mar 1994

Enlistment Response To Changes In Monetary Incentives: Improving The U. S. Army Enlistment Incentive Review And Allocation Process, Chester A. Char

Theses and Dissertations

This research proposes an analytical approach for assessing efficiency and effectiveness of the Army’s Enlistment Incentive Review and Allocation Process. In this research, the author applies multiple regression- techniques to observations of monthly enlistment contracts for the time period covering October 1987 through July 1993. Bonus contracts, ACF contracts and total contracts were regressed against level of enlistment bonus, availability of the Army College Fund, unemployment rate, and state of U.S. involvement in overseas conflict. The author then used the estimated regression relationships to estimate bonus amounts required to stimulate enlistment and compared performance of true incentive levels against predicted …

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A Heuristic Approach To Determining Cargo Flow And Scheduling For Air Mobility Command's Channel Cargo System, John Fitzsimmons Jr., John Walker Mar 1994

A Heuristic Approach To Determining Cargo Flow And Scheduling For Air Mobility Command's Channel Cargo System, John Fitzsimmons Jr., John Walker

Theses and Dissertations

This research investigated a heuristic approach to schedule aircraft for the channel cargo system of the Unit States Air Forces Air Mobility Command AMC. Given cargo frequency of visit requirements, a fleet of aircraft, and possible routes, the objective of this research was to develop, implement, and test an iterative procedure to efficiently schedule and load aircraft in order to maximize the flow of cargo through the channel cargo system. Once a level of flow was established, attempts were made to minimize cost in terms of cumulative weighted time-in-system CWTIS. A minimum cost flow heuristic, incorporating a successive shortest path …

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A Mean Value Analysis Heuristic For Analysis Of Aircraft Sortie Generation, Richard C. Jenkins Mar 1994

A Mean Value Analysis Heuristic For Analysis Of Aircraft Sortie Generation, Richard C. Jenkins

Theses and Dissertations

The primary objective of this study was to develop an analytical methodology based on the Mean Value Analysis algorithm that approximates the performance characteristics of a queueing network model QNM containing a fork- join queue with probabilistic branching. These performance characteristics are response time, throughput and queue length at each station. The QNM solved contains the essential features of the aircraft sortie generation process. The sensitivity of the methods accuracy to increases in server utilization was determined. The comparisons of the results of the MVA heuristic to the outputs of the Logistics Composite Model LCOM simulation indicate that the heuristics …

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A Comparison Of Variable Selection Criteria For Multiple Linear Regression: A Third Simulation Study, Ertem Mutlu Mar 1994

A Comparison Of Variable Selection Criteria For Multiple Linear Regression: A Third Simulation Study, Ertem Mutlu

Theses and Dissertations

The goal of this thesis research is to introduce and study a modification of Millers Method which we call the Modified-Millers method MM method, study two step subset selection procedures, these of which apply Millers Method in the first step and employs another method Minimum MSE or Minimum Sp or Minimum Cp in the second step and these of which employ another method Minimum MSE or Minimum Sp or Minimum Cp in the first step and applies Millers Method in the second step. The results of all techniques will be compared including the results of the previous simulation studies done …

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A Genetic Algorithm Approach To Automating Satellite Range Scheduling, Donald A. Parish Mar 1994

A Genetic Algorithm Approach To Automating Satellite Range Scheduling, Donald A. Parish

Theses and Dissertations

Satellite range scheduling involves scheduling satellite supports in which a satellite and a specific remote tracking station communicate with each other within a specified time window. As the number of satellite supports continue to increase, more pressure is placed on the current manual system to generate schedules efficiently. Previous research efforts focused on heuristic and mixed-integer programming approaches which may not produce the best results. The objective of this research was to determine if a genetic algorithm approach to automating the generation of 24 hour schedules was competitive with other methods. The goal was to schedule as many supports as …

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Several Modified Goodness-Of-Fit Tests For The Cauchy Distribution With Unknown Scale And Location Parameters, Bora H. Onen Mar 1994

Several Modified Goodness-Of-Fit Tests For The Cauchy Distribution With Unknown Scale And Location Parameters, Bora H. Onen

Theses and Dissertations

Kolmogorov-Simirnov and the Kuiper goodness-of-fit tests are studied for the Cauchy distribution with the unknown location and scale parameters. Monte Carlo simulation studies were performed using maximum likelihood estimation to calculate the critical values for standard Kolmogorov-Simirnov and the Kuiper tests. Then a reflection technique is introduced and the critical value tables are calculated for both the Reflected Kolmogorov-Simirnov and the Reflected Kuiper tests. Several sequential tests are performed by combining standard Kolmogorov-Simirnov and Kuiper in one test, standard Cramer-von Mises and the standard Kuiper in the other and finally the reflected Cramer-von Mises and the standard Kuiper in the …

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A Fortran Based Learning System Using Multilayer Back-Propagation Neural Network Techniques, Gregory L. Reinhart Mar 1994

A Fortran Based Learning System Using Multilayer Back-Propagation Neural Network Techniques, Gregory L. Reinhart

Theses and Dissertations

An interactive computer system which allows the researcher to build an optimal neural network structure quickly, is developed and validated. This system assumes a single hidden layer perceptron structure and uses the back- propagation training technique. The software enables the researcher to quickly define a neural network structure, train the neural network, interrupt training at any point to analyze the status of the current network, re-start training at the interrupted point if desired, and analyze the final network using two- dimensional graphs, three-dimensional graphs, confusion matrices and saliency metrics. A technique for training, testing, and validating various network structures and …

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Assessing The Vulnerability Of Multi-Commodity Networks With Failing Components, Alan R. Robinson Mar 1994

Assessing The Vulnerability Of Multi-Commodity Networks With Failing Components, Alan R. Robinson

Theses and Dissertations

This research proposes an analytical approach for assessing flow disturbance, or compromise, based on limited sampling of arc flow information in multi-commodity, or multiple origin-destination O-D, networks with failing arcs. There were three objectives established for this research. The first objective was to bound the expected flow, given the arcs fail with certain probabilities, which was accomplished by reviewing current approaches for single-commodity networks and extending the results to the multi-commodity case. The second objective was to determine the best placement of flow monitors to obtain the most accurate estimates of O-D pair volumes. This was accomplished using a multi-criteria …

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An Analysis Of Operational Suitability For Test And Evaluation Of Highly Reliable Systems, James N. Serpa Mar 1994

An Analysis Of Operational Suitability For Test And Evaluation Of Highly Reliable Systems, James N. Serpa

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this research was to develop a quantitative measure of operational suitability OS and determine its applicability in making the test length decision prior to Initial Operational Test and Evaluation IOTE. The current approach used by the Air Force Operational Test and Evaluation Center AFOTEC was presented and used to establish the relationships of the test measures. It was established that OS could be represented by a function of operational availability Ao and built-in test effectiveness BE. BE was defined and measures proposed based on the method of data collection. A proposal for predicting Ao, BE, and OS …

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An Efficient Approach To Solving The Optimal Control Of Arrivals Problem, John R. Simeoni Mar 1994

An Efficient Approach To Solving The Optimal Control Of Arrivals Problem, John R. Simeoni

Theses and Dissertations

The optimal control of arrivals problem is one which has many applications in both defense and industry. Simply stated, the problem addresses how to schedule a finite number of customers in a finite number of equal length time slots, where each customers service time comes from a specified probability distribution. There are two cost components, one based on total expected customer waiting time and the other based m the expected amount of time the server stays open beyond its scheduled completion time. Currently, solutions have been developed to the optimal control of arrivals problem, but they are computationally slow and …

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The Effective Use Of Animation In Simulation Model Validation, Christopher L. Swider Mar 1994

The Effective Use Of Animation In Simulation Model Validation, Christopher L. Swider

Theses and Dissertations

This study examined two animation displays moving icons, bar graphs at two presentation speeds to determine how each of these factors affected the animations ability to communicate violations of model assumptions. Subjects viewed animation displays individually and in combination at each presentation speed. Eight problem scenarios were presented to evaluate each animations ability to communicate violations of different assumptions. Each animations communication ability was measured subjectively and objectively. Subjective measures in the form of pairwise comparisons were used to calculate normalized preference ratings for each animation. objective measures included problem identification accuracy and problem time. Subjective results indicated that moving …

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An Rsm Study Of The Effects Of Simulation Work And Metamodel Specification On The Statistical Quality Of Metamodel Estimates, Michael K. Taylor Mar 1994

An Rsm Study Of The Effects Of Simulation Work And Metamodel Specification On The Statistical Quality Of Metamodel Estimates, Michael K. Taylor

Theses and Dissertations

This research investigated the combined influence of simulation work and metamodel specification on the statistical quality of the estimates obtained from the resulting metamodels of the simulation data. A 9 x 2 x 2 experiment consisting of 9 cases of simulation work, 2 levels of metamodel specification, and 2 levels of design fractionation were designed for 8 different configurations of MMk queues. The only observed statistic for this experiment was the average queue length. Simulation estimates for each configurations average queue length were calculated directly from the simulation data. In addition, the metamodels were fit to the simulation data and …

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Proactive Monitoring Of Performance In Stochastic Communication Networks, John C. C. Van Hove Mar 1994

Proactive Monitoring Of Performance In Stochastic Communication Networks, John C. C. Van Hove

Theses and Dissertations

This research proposes several models for placing bounds on the expected values of some dynamic performance measures for computer communication networks with failing components. These models provide an understanding of expected network performance that is useful in the process of proactive performance monitoring and also in defining level of service agreements with network users. There were three objectives for this research. The first objective was to extend some existing models of steady-state stochastic network performance to a dynamic network flow representation in order to capture the dynamic nature of proactive monitoring. The second objective was to convert the extended absolute …

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Analysis Of Thunder Combat Simulation Model, Timothy S. Webb Mar 1994

Analysis Of Thunder Combat Simulation Model, Timothy S. Webb

Theses and Dissertations

TAC THUNDER, or THUNDER, is a two-sided large scale computer simulation model that simulates air and ground combat, logistics, and limited airlift at the theater level. It is in use by several allied nations, major defense contractors, and various Department of Defense DoD analysis agencies. The objectives of this thesis effort were to examine the overall model variability, examine the model output for possible interrelationships, and examine the model sensitivity to input parameters. A univariate and multivariate analysis was performed to examine the first two objectives. The univariate analysis consisted of an analysis of the confidence intervals and replication requirements …

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Optimization Of The Air Apportionment In A Tac Thunder Scenario Using Response Surface Methodology, Steven L. Forsythe Mar 1994

Optimization Of The Air Apportionment In A Tac Thunder Scenario Using Response Surface Methodology, Steven L. Forsythe

Theses and Dissertations

To effectively compare different sets of available aircraft, it is necessary to find the apportionment that maximizes the effectiveness of each set of aircraft. This research effort uses an unclassified TAC THUNDER scenario to show how an analyst can use response surface methodology RSM techniques to estimate the relationship between aircraft apportionment and campaign outcomes. The optimal apportionments for one phase of a hypothetical conflict was found by using a steepest-gradient search of the constrained response surfaces. The results are illustrated by illuminating charts showing the various relationships between the number of aircraft in the theater and measures of effectiveness …

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An Integer Solution Heuristic For The Arsenal Exchange Model (Aem), Daniel J. Green Mar 1994

An Integer Solution Heuristic For The Arsenal Exchange Model (Aem), Daniel J. Green

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Force Studies and Analyses Agency sought a method for converting the continuous solution produced by the Arsenal Exchange Model into a feasible integer solution. The current integerization method leaves weapons unused and targets uncovered and could be improved. In the method developed, the noninteger valued variables in the continuous solution are rounded down to the nearest integer to produce a truncated solution. An integer goal program is then used to reallocate the weapons and targets made available in the rounding process. The truncated solution is then combined with the solution of the integer goal program to produce a …

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An Air Mission Planning Algorithm For A Theater Level Combat Model, Brian J. Griggs Mar 1994

An Air Mission Planning Algorithm For A Theater Level Combat Model, Brian J. Griggs

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis describes the development of an air mission planning algorithm for the Joint Staffs Future Theater Level Model FTLM. The overall problem scope was to develop an algorithm to handle major factors bearing on the combat mission planning problem while providing hook-ups for the FTLM architecture. Other aspects of the problem included finding the appropriate level of detail, developing a fast solving technique, and attempting to use existing data. The problem was handled by using some ideas from existing aircraft allocation algorithms and by adding some new techniques. The proposed air mission planning algorithm supplies the optimum degree of …

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An Analysis Of Stopping Criteria In Artificial Neural Networks, Bruce Kostal Mar 1994

An Analysis Of Stopping Criteria In Artificial Neural Networks, Bruce Kostal

Theses and Dissertations

The goal of this study was to decide when to terminate training of an artificial neural network ANN. In pursuit of this goal, several characteristics of the ANN were monitored throughout ANN training classification error rate of the training set, testing set, or a weighted average of the two moving average classification error rate measurements of the difference between ANN output and desired output error sum of squares, total absolute error. or largest absolute error or ANN weight changes absolute weight change, squared weight change, or relative weight change. Throughout this research, the learning rate was held constant at 0.35. …

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An Investigation Of Simulated Annealing Applied To Structural Optimization Problems, Richard C. Mceachin Mar 1994

An Investigation Of Simulated Annealing Applied To Structural Optimization Problems, Richard C. Mceachin

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis investigates the feasibility of using Simulated Annealing SA in structural optimization problems. The investigation involves solving benchmark structural optimization problems with an SA algorithm, and comparing its solutions to those found by four other optimizers. Overall, the analysis shows that SA has limited applicability in structural optimization. Two primary factors were found to adversely impact the performance of the SA algorithm in these problems. These factors are high dimensionality, and high levels of constraint. The difficulty involved in solving these problems with a random search increases exponentially with the number of dimensions. The number, and non-linearity, of the …

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The Use Of L-Moments To Fit The Generalized Lambda Distribution To Sample Data, Robert B. Mohan Mar 1994

The Use Of L-Moments To Fit The Generalized Lambda Distribution To Sample Data, Robert B. Mohan

Theses and Dissertations

The Generalized Lambda Distribution GLD is a four-parameter, continuous probability distribution that is useful for simulation analysis. The strengths of the GLD lie in its abilities to approximate many distributions, represent data when the underlying distribution is unknown, and fit or generate random variates. The method of moments is presently the accepted technique for estimating the parameters of this distribution. However, it is sensitive to extreme observations and subject to large sampling variability as the sample size decreases. L-moments are expectations of certain linear combinations of order statistics. They can be used to estimate parameters and quantiles of probability distributions. …

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An Analysis Of Air Force Acquisition Engineering Officer's Perceptions Of The Adequacy Of Their Preparation For Management, Steven E. Woodruff Mar 1994

An Analysis Of Air Force Acquisition Engineering Officer's Perceptions Of The Adequacy Of Their Preparation For Management, Steven E. Woodruff

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this study was to determine how much time Air Force acquisition engineers spend in performing management functions, how those engineers spend in performing management functions, how those engineers perceive their management training, and which types of training contribute the most to managerial competency. The results from surveys of 215 acquisition engineers assigned to ASCEN, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH and their supervisors revealed that engineers do indeed spend substantial amounts of time performing management functions. Slightly more than half the engineers reported spending at least 50 of an average workday performing management functions. Over 53 of engineers responding to …

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Rapid And Accurate Timing Simulation Of Radiation-Hardened Digital Microelectronics Using Vhdl, Charles P. Brothers Jr. Mar 1994

Rapid And Accurate Timing Simulation Of Radiation-Hardened Digital Microelectronics Using Vhdl, Charles P. Brothers Jr.

Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation presents the development of a fast, accurate, timing simulation capability based on VHSIC Hardware Description Language VHDL without the use of back annotation of timing delay information. This VHDL-based timing simulator is intended for use with radiation-hardened microelectronics in simulating timing of circuit operation in pre-radiation, post-radiation 1 MradSi total dose, and ionizing dose radiation environments. Development of the timing models are presented. The implementation of the timing models are incorporated into a VHDL library composed of basic logic gates and flip-flops. Simulations of complex circuits were run in SPICE and VHDL to assess the timing accuracy and …

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Point And Interval Estimation Of Series System Reliability Using Small Data Sets, Craig J. Willits Mar 1994

Point And Interval Estimation Of Series System Reliability Using Small Data Sets, Craig J. Willits

Theses and Dissertations

This investigation explored the relative performance of several small-sample point and interval estimators for series system reliability. Among point estimators, the maximum likelihood estimator MLE was compared to the corresponding Bayes estimator. In addition, four interval estimators were compared Easterlings modified maximum likelihood integer estimator, the Lindstrom-Madden estimator, and Bayesian probability interval estimators constructed using approximate beta and Bayes Monte Carlo empirical posterior densities. The relative performance of the point estimators was assessed by comparing their mean square errors. For the four interval estimators, the interval coverage probability and the average interval lower bound were examined. The values of these …

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Compression Of A Radar Track Of A Near Earth Satellite Into An Earth Centered Inertial State Vector Using Least Squares Differential Correction, Garry L. Hall Mar 1994

Compression Of A Radar Track Of A Near Earth Satellite Into An Earth Centered Inertial State Vector Using Least Squares Differential Correction, Garry L. Hall

Theses and Dissertations

This study investigated the use of a least squares differential corrector to compress the information contained in a single radar track of a Near Earth satellite into a six element, Earth Centered Inertial state vector and associated covariance matrix. Observations were generated using a truth model program based on two body, J2 geopotential, and atmospheric drag dynamics and consisted of simulated range, azimuth and elevation. Random Gaussian noise was added to the data to simulate real world random errors. The orbital dynamics used in the estimator consisted of two body and J2 geopotential effects which were approximated using a Taylor …

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A Shock Tube Study Of Aerodynamic Heating Of Gaps In A Cylinder Subjected To Supersonic Cross Flow, Douglas D. High Mar 1994

A Shock Tube Study Of Aerodynamic Heating Of Gaps In A Cylinder Subjected To Supersonic Cross Flow, Douglas D. High

Theses and Dissertations

The effects of localized aerodynamic heating in cylinder expansion gaps positioned in cross flow were investigated in a shock tube. For this study, Mach number and Reynolds number were varied from 1.04 to 1.38 and 5 x 105 to 9 x 105, respectively. The cylinder was instrumented with quick response time thermocouples positioned on the surface of the cylinder, the wall of the gap, and the gap floor. Gap aspect ratios varied from 1.23 to 3.69. Pressure gauges were used to measure wave shock speeds, pressure ratios, and transient pressure conditions. Surface temperatures were measured and converted to heat fluxes …

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Resonance Capture In Unbalanced Dual-Spin Spacecraft, Raymond Tsui Mar 1994

Resonance Capture In Unbalanced Dual-Spin Spacecraft, Raymond Tsui

Theses and Dissertations

This study examines the spinup dynamics of dual-spin spacecraft having an imbalanced rotor. Of particular interest is a phenomenon called 'resonance capture' during which the spinup motor torque induces uncontrolled growth of nutation. A captured spacecraft tumbles end-over-end, while an escaped spacecraft experiences little nutation growth. The conditions which lead to both state are analyzed. A set of criteria based on the spacecraft's kinetic energy at the of spinup is used to determine whether or not it has been captured. To calculate the final energies against which these criteria are compared, a set of nondimensional equations of motion are numerically …

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