Digital Commons Network^™

Using Game Theory To Model Tripolar Deterrence And Escalation Dynamics, Grace Farson

Honors Program: Senior Projects (Public)

The study investigated how game theory can been utilized to model multipolar escalation dynamics between Russia, China, and the United States. In addition, the study focused on analyzing various parameters that affected potential conflict outcomes to further new deterrence thought in a tripolar environment.

A preliminary game theoretic model was created to model and analyze escalation dynamics. The model was built upon framework presented by Zagare and Kilgour in their work ‘Perfect Deterrence’. The model is based on assumptions and rules set prior to game play. The model was then analyzed based upon these assumptions using a form of mathematical …

Daoism And Design: Mapping The Conflict In Syria, Ned Beechinor Marsh, Heather S. Gregg

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

In contemporary military operations, some problems are so complex they do not give way to linear solutions but require problem management instead. Combining the fundamentals of Dao De Jing philosophy with the US military design process offers a new perspective to analyze complex security problems, devise management strategies, and plan military operations. Applying this new approach to the complex security environment in Syria allows for a nonlinear mapping of long-term goals and a new perspective on relationships between key actors, environmental factors that restrict changes in the security environment, and where planners should focus their attention.

Book Review: Walter Scheidel. The Great Leveler: Violence And The History Of Inequality From The Stone Age To The Twenty-First Century, Leland Conley Barrows

Comparative Civilizations Review

Inspired by the work of Thomas Piketty, particularly his Capitalism in the Twenty-First Century (2013), and Albrecht Dürer’s 1497-1498 woodcut, “The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse,” Dr. Walter Scheidel, Professor of Classics and History at Stanford University, argues in his massive 521-page volume that for most of human history reductions in socio-economic equality, supposedly a positive good, have resulted from more-or-less violent compressions entailing destruction and death. The implication is that in “normal” times, societies are characterized by inequality even though it is not perceived as a positive good.

Book Review: Katell Berthelot. Jews And Their Roman Rivals: Pagan Rome’S Challenge To Israel, Joseph Drew

Comparative Civilizations Review

This is a magisterial work, one which sets high the bar in the comparative study of civilizations. In it, Prof. Katell Berthelot covers the sweep of 600 years, from the second century, BCE, to the fourth century, CE, as she analyzes the extensive impact of Rome on Jewish ideas of law, religion, and peoplehood and, secondarily, the corresponding impact of their rivals, the Jews, on Roman society and history.

What Constitutes Evidence For An Historical Explanation?, Kenneth Feigenbaum

Comparative Civilizations Review

What constitutes evidence for an historical explanation? What constitutes evidence for the explanations of the falls and rises of civilization? Better, what constitutes evidence for the best explanation of this phenomenon?

The purpose of this article is to acquaint the readers of the Comparative Civilizations Review with the work of a philosopher of history, Raymond Martin. In particular, I will present his approach on what constitutes how a decision should be made as to which explanation of an historical event is superior to another and why this is so.

All Bark And No Byte: A Case Study On Nuclear Weapons' Role In Cyber Deterrence, Phuc Nguyen

Honors Program: Senior Projects (Public)

In what some scholars consider a marked departure from its traditional policy, the U.S.' 2018 Nuclear Deterrence Posture Review declared that the U.S. would consider the use of nuclear weapons in response to "significant, non-nuclear strategic attacks." However, despite real-world examples of the type of significant cyberattacks on U.S., allied, or partner civilian population or infrastructure alluded to in the Review, the factors that might trigger multidomain escalation remain underexplored, which creates a credibility gap in the U.S.' deterrence policy. This paper explores these factors by providing a case study of the North Korean WannaCry and Russian NotPetya cyberattacks and …

Managing Ethno-Nationalism Within Special Territorial Autonomy Policy: Comparative Cases Between Aceh And Papua, Wasisto Raharjo Jati

Jurnal Politik

The implementation of special autonomy regions is how the central government acknowledges the uniqueness and significant contributions of specific regions to Indonesia. The acknowledgment is then accommodated within special autonomy policies. Starting with Papua in 2001, there are eight provinces with special regions. Despite having a special autonomy status, those provinces may have more problems. The issues are mainly the historical root of integration with Indonesia, resource inequality, and the genuine representations of indigenous people as officeholders. These three issues have been common problems in Indonesia since the up-and-down relationship exists between the central government and those special autonomous regions. …

Choices For U.S. Contributions To Nato: Stability Policing In The Age Of Multi-Domain Operations, Nathan M. Colvin

Graduate Research Conference (GSIS)

The United States Army claims they are a “force out of position” and must transform for large-scale combat operations (LSCO). The current narrative toward LSCO warfighting comes at the expense of lessons hard-won over decades of small wars and stability operations. The focus on LSCO is an oversimplification of the complexity and ambiguity of the future operating environment. The Army is trading clarity of narrative at the expense of a force balanced for both LSCO and non-LSCO operations. LSCO perspective assumes a worst-case scenario of war over more likely scenarios of continuous disruptions across a spectrum of conflict, which may …

Ddr, Cassandra Jagroop

Graduate Research Conference (GSIS)

Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration (DDR) has been a facet of post-conflict resolution since the 1980s. DDR seeks to address a wide range of issues varying from security to human rights, law, elections, and governance. One of the major issues arising from a conflict region are armed groups involved in the fighting and how to handle them. These armed groups represent the deep insecurity and lack of faith the population has in the state mechanism (Rondeau 2011, 654), thus in order to move ahead in the post-conflict situation the issue of armed groups needs to be tackled. The evolution of warfare …

Complex Global Value Chains And Economic Interdependence: A New Look At The Opportunity Costs Argument, Melle Scholten

Graduate Research Conference (GSIS)

The classical economic interdependence argument states that trade and investment between countries make conflict less likely, because they increase the opportunity costs of war. War means that trade and investment will dry up, to the detriment of society as a whole. The increased opportunity costs of war (vis-`a-vis peace) means war will be less likely to occur between interdependent states. Certain strands of realism have challenged this assertion. They argue that expectations that trade will decline in future can be a strong incentive for initiating conflict. Giving increasing political and economic tensions between the world’s superpowers – the USA and …

Pla Logistics And Sustainment: Pla Conference 2022, George R. Shatzer, Roger D. Cliff, Kenneth W. Allen, Joshua Arostegui, Justin Boggess, Travis Dolney, Matthew P. Funaiole, Brian Hart, Lonnie D. Henley, Bonny Lin, Erin Richter, Benjamin Rosen, James R. (J. R.) Sessions, Eli Tirk, Joel Wuthnow, Christopher D. Yung

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

The US Army War College People’s Liberation Army Conference (PLA) Conference was held March 31 to April 2, 2022, at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania.

The conference focused on PLA logistics and sustainment. As the PLA continues to build and modernize its combat forces, it is important to examine if the capabilities meant to support combat operations are also being developed.

Specific topics included: 1) China’s national-level logistics, including how China mobilizes national resources for the military and how it provides joint logistics support to the PLA Theater Commands; 2) the logistics capabilities of the different PLA services, especially the Army, Navy, …

Neo-Nazi Postmodern: Right-Wing Terror Tactics, The Intellectual Neue Rechte, And The Destabilization Of Memory In Germany Since 1989, Esther E. Adaire

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation argues that from 1989 onwards an increasingly terroristic neo-Nazi underground in Germany became gradually entangled with the reactionary Neue Rechte, whose crusade against the German culture of remembrance is also a crusade against European integration, increased migration, and the conceits of liberal democracy. This entanglement produced an ideologically coherent extreme-right political movement with a heavily armed and tactical paramilitary faction that has, contrary to what various governments of the Federal Republic have wanted to believe, been developing in Germany since the early 1990s. Moreover, tactics of information warfare initiated by so-called “postmodern” terrorists of the 1990s would, by …

David Versus Goliath: The Power Of Weakness In Asymmetric Warfare—Lessons From History, Nicholas K. Petaludis

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Under what conditions do violent nonstate actors (VNA) succeed against states? Why does David sometimes beat Goliath? Since at least the time of Thucydides and the Peloponnesian Wars, the realist narrative in international relations measures power primarily in relative, coercive, and deterrent terms. Strong states should accordingly face fewer constraints and enjoy more options while pursuing their national interests. Unconventional warfare, and its subsets of terrorism and insurgency, should—given these circumstances, end in VNA failure. Sometimes, however, VNAs find success. By comparing the literature on historical and current case studies, I propose that a set of preconditions and two mechanisms …

Finding Autonomy Under The Russian Bear: Explaining Central Asia’S Response To The Invasion Of Ukraine, Ryan Hitch

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

The Russian invasion of Ukraine was one of the most important geopolitical events of the 21^st century, which will have lasting effects on the international community. While the responses of the United States and Europe to Russia’s invasion have been extensively covered, the response of Central Asia has received relatively less attention. Russia’s extensive investments in multilateral regional organizations and Central Asia’s heavy reliance on Moscow for security and economic assistance should predict that Central Asian states would bandwagon with Russia. However, the region has thus far remained officially neutral towards the war and certain states are openly antagonizing …

Heritage Diplomacy: A Case Of The Hashemite Kingdom Of Jordan & The United States, Michelle Rahimi

Capstone Collection

The newer concept of heritage diplomacy is outlined in this paper by first evaluating the various definitions of it presented by scholars in the existing literature. I then attempt to assess how it is postulated to benefit bi-lateral diplomatic relations. The postulated benefits identified are then explored, analyzed, and applied through the lens of a case study between the United States of America and Jordan. The objective of analyzing heritage diplomacy through this particular lens is to identify whether or not heritage diplomacy is capable of cultivating/preserving positive diplomatic relations between states. The paper confirmed that heritage diplomacy has the …

How The Tea Party Captured The Gop Insurgent Factions In American Politics, Zachary Morris

The Journal of Economics and Politics

Blum’s work provides a strong starting point to understand how factions can have a lasting impact on parties. Still, this work offers a theoretical framework to understand how insurgent factions such as the Tea Party can have a lasting effect on the Republican Party. This book review analyzes Blum’s work and provides analysis and gentle criticisms of this work. The Tea Party successfully renegotiated the ideological positions of the Republican Party by using confrontational tactics and challenging established GOP candidates. Through these insurgent tactics, the Tea Party reshaped the Republican Party to embrace reactionary conservatism. This transformation of the Republican …

The Turkish Role In The Eastern Mediterranean Region (2018-2020), Yousef Riad Yousef Al-Jariri

Journal of the Association of Arab Universities for Research in Higher Education مجلة اتحاد الجامعات العربية للبحوث في التعليم العالي

This study provided a detailed description to the Turkish maneuvers and interactions with the most important events in the East-Mediterranean, and the way Turkey had played a balanced role between its strategic interests and its political stand toward the most important international issues, taking into consideration its internal front and the ruling party interests. This study tried to understand and unveil the Turkish leadership mind and its ambitions to become a regional power that has the well, power, and influence to enforce its vision and ambition especially in regard to the gas and North Syria. This study came to highlight …

Theorising From The Land: House Or Tipi Of Ir?, Justin De Leon

Ethnic Studies Faculty Articles and Research

In 2004, Anna Agathangelou and L.H.M. Ling wrote their important intervention, entitled ‘The House of IR: From Family Power Politics to the Poises of Worldism,’ that ordered various theories of International Relations within an analogy of a colonial household, calling instead for a Worldism that builds communities based on interests and support. One glaring omission from this analysis, however, is mention of indigeneity. Increasingly, in North America, the experiences of Indigenous peoples are shaping national imaginations and popular political discourses – take for instance Idle No More, the Truth and Reconciliation Commission of Canada, Standing Rock, and Mauna Kea, to …

The "Othering" Of America: How The Strategic Use Of Crisis And Ressentiment Succeeded In The Trump Era, Laura J. Franklin

Dissertations

The establishment of a crisis theme through public rhetoric often triggers widespread attention, resulting in public concern and media coverage of an issue that could potentially be overblown or deceptive. In right-wing political discourse, this crisis warning is typically delivered by a White male leader with ready access to the powerful news media. An “us versus them” theme often occurs. Within this mode of a hegemonic exclusion, a culture of immigrants or an American minority are often depicted, perhaps aggressively, as a threat: A threat used to motivate, enrage and create the frustrations inherent in ressentiment. This dissertation explores the …

The Ambiguity In International Law And Its Effect On Drone Warfare And Cyber Security, Amina Khan

MA Major Research Papers

Drone warfare and artificial intelligence have considerably shaped cybersecurity and international law over the years. The rapid growth of technology has slowly forced entry into the international and domestic affairs of states. How countries conduct surveillance and practice defence does not look the way it did many years ago. One must observe how the rule of law is affected by technological advancement at the international level where many complexities are seen to rise to the surface. Balancing domestic and international law comes into question when drones and artificial intelligence become key components in state affairs that transcend geographical borders. This …

Examining The Effects Of 9/11: How Did This Event Define How We Described And Treated Terrorism?, Kristeana Nevaeh Banks

Senior Honors Theses and Projects

This paper seeks to examine how the American public defined terrorism after the September 11th Attacks. At this time there is much discourse on the response to the September 11th Attacks with the war on terror, and the war’s effect on both American society and the global community Because of that, this paper takes a step back from simply examining policy to see how the definition formed of terrorism influence the American political view of terrorism, and how it compares to the view of terrorism after the Oklahoma City Bombing.

Through the use of qualitative and quantitative data from Congressional …

Factors That Enable Or Hinder The Transition Of Some Gulf Cooperation Council (Gcc) Countries To Green Energy, Verkine Keukpanossian

CGU Theses & Dissertations

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries continue to play a strategic role in the global energy system. They account for a fifth of the global oil production and enjoy relatively high GDP per Capita, and their economies heavily rely on oil-producing and exporting at a time when the West is pushing towards net-zero, low-carbon emissions by 2050. This study focuses on the energy sector and takes a transdisciplinary look at Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and tries to understand how these rentier monarchies that have built a solid global comparative advantage in producing and exporting oil and …

Multidisciplinary Approach To Civil Conflict: Political, Economic, And Social Determinants Of Violence, Zhamilia Klycheva

CGU Theses & Dissertations

More abundant and less severe than interstate war, civil conflict has filled the news headlines worldwide, especially with nonviolent domestic instability. To this day, no single theoretical framework can fully explain this complex phenomenon. Scholars have often focused on one domain area as a precursor of violence. While such approaches are valuable, they need to grasp the whole picture, as addressing the problem from a single-domain perspective yields weak findings. This dissertation explores specific political, social, and economic factors that impact the onset, severity, and duration of civil conflict and the frequency of nonviolent conflict. It adopts a unified transdisciplinary …

การเรียกร้องสิทธิสตรีที่ตกเป็นเหยื่อความรุนแรงทางเพศในระหว่างสงคราม: กรณีศึกษาสตรีชาวยาซิดีในอิรักกับกลุ่มก่อการร้ายรัฐอิสลาม, จินตนา คำอุดม

Chulalongkorn University Theses and Dissertations (Chula ETD)

สงครามและความขัดแย้งในปัจจุบัน นำมาซึ่งการเกิดผลกระทบตามมามากมาย ไม่ว่าจะเป็นปัญหาด้านความมั่นคง ปัญหาการละเมิดสิทธิมนุษยชน ปัญหาผลกระทบต่อเศรษฐกิจและสังคม โดยเฉพาะอย่างยิ่งปัญหาอันเกิดขึ้นกับผู้หญิง ซึ่งได้รับผลกระทบและตกเป็นเหยื่อโดยตรงจากความรุนแรงของสงคราม สารนิพนธ์นี้จึงต้องการศึกษาประเด็นความขัดแย้งร่วมสมัยในมิติเพศสภาพ โดยศึกษาประเด็นการเรียกร้องสิทธิสตรีที่ตกเป็นเหยื่อความรุนแรงทางเพศในระหว่างสงคราม กรณีศึกษาสตรีชาวยาซิดีในอิรักกับกลุ่มก่อการร้ายรัฐอิสลามหรือไอซิส เมื่อปี 2014 ซึ่งได้กระทำความรุนแรงกดขี่ทางเพศต่อหญิงสาวชาติพันธุ์ยาซิดี ในสงครามการก่อการร้ายตามความเชื่อทางศาสนาของกลุ่มไอซิสในดินแดนตะวันออกกลาง ซึ่งระบอบชายเป็นใหญ่ที่ไอซิสพยายามสถาปนาขึ้นนี้ ถูกต่อต้านโดยกลุ่มสตรีผู้แปรสภาพจากเหยื่อมาเป็นผู้เรียกร้องสิทธิสตรี และยุติความรุนแรงที่เกิดขึ้น งานชิ้นนี้จึงมุ่งศึกษากระบวนการต่อสู้เรียกร้องของกลุ่มผู้หญิงยาซิดีมีรูปแบบและวิธีการต่อสู้อย่างไร ผลการศึกษาพบว่าสามารถแบ่งการต่อสู้ออกเป็น 3 รูปแบบ ดังนี้ 1) การต่อสู้ผ่านวิธีการสันติวิธีและการตีแผ่ความจริง 2) การต่อสู้ผ่านการจัดตั้งกองกำลังทหารหญิง และ 3) การต่อสู้ผ่านการสร้างพันธมิตรและแสวงหาความร่วมมือ

The Russia-Ukraine War: The Second Cold War?, Madeline Levine

Scripps Senior Theses

Under the guise of a “special military operation,” Russian forces invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022. The immediacy with which the United States rallied support for Ukraine within the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (“NATO”), the United Nations (“UN”), and the European Union (“EU”) raised speculation: Is Russia-Ukraine the beginning of a second Cold War? Did the Cold War actually end in the 1990s? Is Ukraine the first proxy war in a series of more to come between the United States and Russia? This thesis will address the first question by identifying and analyzing the characteristics that distinguished the Cold War …

The Cultural Diplomacy Of U.S. Peace Corps: Understanding The Role Of Peace Corps Volunteers As Strategic Geopolitical Assets, Corey B. Miles

Theses and Dissertations

Beginning in the Summer of 1961, the United States government has deployed volunteer humanitarians around the world to serve the mission of U.S. Peace Corps and has since contributed to communities in 143 partner countries while enjoying widespread popularity. Its mission of promoting world peace and friendship is pursued through three operational goals: technical training, cultural exportation, and cultural importation. Since 2016, with the election of U.S. President Donald Trump, and continuing through the Covid-19 pandemic, which produced the first global service interruption in agency history, the value of the Peace Corps service model has been fundamentally challenged. As a …

Uninvited Guests In The Backyard: Dangers And Risks Of Terrorist And Anti-American Activity In Latin America, Santiago Spadiliero

Graduate Theses/Dissertations

The international security environment has changed. In the last two decades, new challengers to the American liberal order arose, with China being the most defiant one, in political and military terms. Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative opened the doors to these extra-continental powers, as their loans provided an alternative source of funding for Latin America, walking these countries away from American-led lending institutions. In this new context, Latin America becomes a desirable piece of land in which these new challengers can safely create trade routes while decreasing American influence. Russia and Iran also want to project power in America’s backyard. …

Thawing Interests: The Arctic In U.S. Grand Strategy, Benjamin S. Murray

Graduate Theses/Dissertations

The thawing Arctic is subject to increasing activity, attention, and a renewal of interests in the region from around the globe. National interests have compelled strategic planning in the Arctic region and are connected to global geopolitics. A concept of grand strategy is distilled from theories of past authors, understood within the modern context. That concept includes a terminological framework consisting of interests and threats to inform an ends, ways, and means design of strategy, composed of all instruments of state power, blending policy with strategy, and across the peace-war continuum. Then fundamental precepts of existing U.S. grand strategy are …

Women Leaders In The Baltic States: Untying The Double-Bind, Elena G. Roe

Honors Theses

Across the post-Soviet region, but particularly in the Baltic states, women executives have gained power in greater numbers and at higher rates than many other regions in the world. This defies existing literature, as these states maintain conservative gender stereotypes while also facing a major security threat from Russia close to their borders. This thesis posits that the increase in women within Baltic legislatures across time creates a political pipeline, or a pool of qualified candidates that makes the election of women to executive power more likely. This is not the only factor, however, as the influence of NATO as …

บทบาทและความจำเป็นของกองทัพไทยในคาบสมุทรเกาหลีในยุคปัจจุบัน, พิทยาพงษ์ เกษตรผลจำรูญ

Chulalongkorn University Theses and Dissertations (Chula ETD)

สารนิพนธ์ฉบับนี้มุ่งศึกษาบทบาทของกองทัพไทยในการปฏิบัติภารกิจเพื่อส่งเสริมและธำรงไว้ซึ่งสันติภาพในคาบสมุทรเกาหลีในยุคปัจจุบัน และเหตุผลในการดำรงภารกิจในคาบสมุทรเกาหลีนี้ไว้ โดยใช้วิธีการวิจัยเอกสารเป็นเครื่องมือที่ใช้ในการวิจัยพบว่า กองทัพไทยดำเนินบทบาทเฉพาะที่สำคัญ 2 ประการ ได้แก่ 1) การทำหน้าที่ผู้สังเกตการณ์ทางทหาร ตรวจสอบและยืนยันว่าคู่ขัดแย้งได้ปฏิบัติตามข้อตกลงหยุดยิงทางทหาร และ 2) การมีกำลังพลกองทัพไทยในกองบัญชาการกองกำลังสหประชาชาติที่ทำหน้าที่อยู่ในกองร้อยเกียรติยศ เป็นการแสดงออกเชิงสัญลักษณ์สะท้อนการยึดมั่นในสันติภาพในคาบสมุทรเกาหลี เหตุผลประการสำคัญในการดำรงภารกิจไว้ เนื่องจากประเทศไทยในฐานะรัฐสมาชิกขององค์การสหประชาชาติตระหนักถึงการมีส่วนร่วมในการปฏิบัติการเพื่อส่งเสริมและธำรงไว้ซึ่งสันติภาพ การปฏิบัติตามบรรทัดฐานที่สหประชาชาติกำหนดจะเป็นการสร้างเสริมสถานะและสร้างการยอมรับให้แก่ประเทศไทยในประชาคมโลกและเวทีการเมืองระหว่างประเทศ การคงกำลังทหารของกองทัพไทยในคาบสมุทรเกาหลียังคงมีความจำเป็นต่อประเทศไทยในฐานะสมาชิกขององค์การสหประชาชาติ กองทัพไทยควนดำเนินการด้วยความรอบคอบ ยึดถือนโยบายการรักษาดุลยภาพของความสัมพันธ์ระหว่างประเทศ โดยมีเป้าหมายในการเสริมสร้างความไว้เนื้อเชื่อใจ การพัฒนาศักยภาพและขีดความสามารถในการปฏิบัติการร่วมกันเพื่อรับมือปัญหาความมั่นคงรูปแบบใหม่และการส่งเสริมสันติภาพในทุกระดับ