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Uncertainty Handling In Stock Market Prediction: A Fuzzy Markov Chain Approach, Alpa Singh Rajput, Arpan Singh Rajput Apr 2026

Uncertainty Handling In Stock Market Prediction: A Fuzzy Markov Chain Approach, Alpa Singh Rajput, Arpan Singh Rajput

Neutrosophic Systems with Applications

Predicting the stock market is never easy because it is influenced by many uncertain and constantly changing factors such as economic conditions, investor behaviour, and global events. Traditional models like the Crisp Markov Chain (CMC) try to predict market movements by using fixed probabilities for different states like bullish, bearish, or stagnant. However, real markets do not behave in such a strict way—they often move gradually between states, which these models fail to capture. To overcome this limitation, this study introduces a Fuzzy Markov Chain (FMC) model, where fuzzy logic is used to handle uncertainty and allow smoother transitions between …


Modeling Agentic Artificial Intelligence Uncertainty In Agriculture Based 6generation: A Hybrid Q-Rung Orthopair Fuzzy Mcdm Methodology, Zekra Sakr, Mona Mohamed Apr 2026

Modeling Agentic Artificial Intelligence Uncertainty In Agriculture Based 6generation: A Hybrid Q-Rung Orthopair Fuzzy Mcdm Methodology, Zekra Sakr, Mona Mohamed

Neutrosophic Systems with Applications

In era of advanced intelligent revolutions, the collaboration between intelligent technologies became imperative. For instance, integrating 6G communications with agentic artificial intelligence considered a catalyst to shift agriculture sector into optimized and intelligence sector. This integration resulted in transitioning the sector from static automation to autonomous, agent-based ecosystems. Accordingly, the efficiency roles for artificial intelligence agents (AIAs), deploying and selecting optimal AIA is important. Yet, selection process is still difficult because agricultural criteria are multifaceted and there are inherent environmental uncertainties. To address these challenges and bolster the selection process, this paper suggests a hybrid multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) that bolstered …


A Deep Learning-Based Approach For Bot Detection In Trending Hashtags On X, Mehboob Hussain, Muhammad Rizwan Rashid Rana, Muhammad Imran, Muhammad Shoaib, Muhammad Hasaan Mujtaba Apr 2026

A Deep Learning-Based Approach For Bot Detection In Trending Hashtags On X, Mehboob Hussain, Muhammad Rizwan Rashid Rana, Muhammad Imran, Muhammad Shoaib, Muhammad Hasaan Mujtaba

Makara Journal of Technology

The widespread presence of bots on social media platforms, such as X (formerly Twitter), poses a significant threat to the integrity of online information by facilitating the dissemination of misinformation and manipulating public discourse. This study proposes a robust deep learning-based framework, DeepBot, to detect bot participation in trending hashtags and discussions on X. The approach uses a dataset sourced from Kaggle, comprising user profile metadata, including follower count, tweet frequency, account verification status, and engagement metrics. The data were subjected to comprehensive preprocessing, including noise removal, part-of-speech (POS) tagging, and word embedding using the pre-trained GloVe model. RoBERTa is …


Smart Kitchen: Towards Real-Time Ai Systems For Cognitive Support In Daily Activities, Ruiqi Wang Apr 2026

Smart Kitchen: Towards Real-Time Ai Systems For Cognitive Support In Daily Activities, Ruiqi Wang

McKelvey School of Engineering Graduate Student Theses & Dissertations

The rapid growth of the aging population and the rising prevalence of Subjective Cognitive Decline (SCD) highlight the need for continuous, unobtrusive assessment of functional cognition during everyday activities. Vision-based smart home systems offer a promising pathway for monitoring behavior and supporting independent living. However, enabling real-time cognitive assistance remains challenging. It requires not only accurately interpreting complex human behaviors to detect cognitive errors, but also supporting real-time deployment on resource-constrained edge devices and under dynamic wireless network conditions. This dissertation presents Smart Kitchen, an AI-driven system for real-time cognitive error detection through the monitoring of daily cooking activities. Under …


Drug Risk Knowledge Discovery For Western Medicines Based On Knowledge Graph Link Prediction, Jianxiang Wei, Ma Hengyuan Ma, Yuehong Sun, Wenwen Du, Letian Hu Apr 2026

Drug Risk Knowledge Discovery For Western Medicines Based On Knowledge Graph Link Prediction, Jianxiang Wei, Ma Hengyuan Ma, Yuehong Sun, Wenwen Du, Letian Hu

Journal of Scientific Information Research

[Purpose/significance] The risk information contained in drug instructions is usually incomplete, and some new adverse reactions can only be discovered in actual clinical use. This paper proposes an information organization and knowledge discovery method for pharmacovigilance, in order to timely and accurately identify missing risk knowledge in drug instructions. [Method/process] Drug instructions of 8 152 Western medicines are collected as the research data; On the basis of ontology construction, data annotation, and model training, the UIE model is used to jointly extract entity and relationship triplets from the research data; A new knowledge graph link prediction method CompGCN-RotatE, is proposed, …


Research On Temporal Knowledge Graph Completion Method For Emergent Events Based On Bigru And Graph Contrastive Learning, Peng Wu, Zhenyu Lu, Xuechen Zhang Apr 2026

Research On Temporal Knowledge Graph Completion Method For Emergent Events Based On Bigru And Graph Contrastive Learning, Peng Wu, Zhenyu Lu, Xuechen Zhang

Journal of Scientific Information Research

[Purpose/significance] During emergencies, social media short texts contain critical information but are heavily interfered with by noise. Traditional static knowledge graph completion techniques struggle to effectively address their dynamic evolution and data sparsity issues, making it imperative to introduce temporal modeling methods. [Method/process] This study proposes a dynamic completion framework that combines the temporal feature capture capability of Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Units (BiGRU) with the noise-resistant representation learning advantages of Graph Contrastive Learning (GCL). At the completion level, the ConBiTE method is introduced, which captures temporal dependencies through self-attention mechanisms and BiGRU, while leveraging GCL to enhance the completion of …


Cognition Is Not Content: A Structural Account Of Processing Conditions, Griselda Poe Apr 2026

Cognition Is Not Content: A Structural Account Of Processing Conditions, Griselda Poe

Publications and Research

Human cognition has been described in terms of content. This description becomes insufficient once artificial systems make output observable apart from subject attribution, intention, and relational context. Under this contrast condition, what becomes visible is a layered structure in which output, reconstruction, evaluation, and termination do not necessarily coincide. The same input may register as complete under one processing condition while remaining unresolved under another. This separability means that content-based description does not merely omit an additional variable: it can mislocate a processing difference as a difference in meaning, personality, intention, ability, or attitude. This is not a proposal for …


2026 - The Thirtieth Annual Symposium Of Student Scholars Apr 2026

2026 - The Thirtieth Annual Symposium Of Student Scholars

Symposium of Student Scholars Program Books

The full program book from the 30th Annual Symposium of Student Scholars, held on April 22-24, 2026. Includes abstracts from the presentations and posters.


Program And Proceedings, The Nebraska Academy Of Sciences 1880–2026: 146th Anniversary Year, One Hundred-Thirty-Sixth Annual Meeting Apr 2026

Program And Proceedings, The Nebraska Academy Of Sciences 1880–2026: 146th Anniversary Year, One Hundred-Thirty-Sixth Annual Meeting

Nebraska Academy of Sciences: Programs and Proceedings

Program and abstracts of the proceedings for the Nebraska Academy of Sciences 136th annual meeting, 2025

Sessions

Aeronautics and Space Science

Anthropology

Biological and Medical Sciences

Earth Sciences

Ecology, Sustainability, and Environmental Science

Physics and Engineering

General Poster Session

2026 Maiben Lecture: Shifting Extremes: Understanding Nebraska’s Changing Climate and Preparing for What Lies Ahead, Deborah Bathke

2026 Friends of Science Awards: Julie Shaffer and Irina Filina

2026 C. Bertrand and Marian Othmer Schultz Colleaguate Schoalrship Award: Piper Ryschon and Bryce Reeson

In Memoriam: Paul Royster


Differentiable Objectives For 3d Scene Relighting Via Gradient Descent On Olat Basis Coefficients, Anson Savage Apr 2026

Differentiable Objectives For 3d Scene Relighting Via Gradient Descent On Olat Basis Coefficients, Anson Savage

Theses and Dissertations

Designing effective lighting is an iterative and often time-consuming process. This work contributes to automatic lighting design research by presenting a render-engine agnostic optimization routine: gradient descent on RGB multipliers of one-light-at-a-time (OLAT) basis images. We compare several objective functions to accomplish lighting tasks and show that our method is capable of quickly and effectively exploring different lighting styles using either text prompts or reference images. We also present several datasets specific to lighting tasks and show that fine-tuning on these datasets can improve performance.


Ex-04-142 Modeling Distress And Evaluating Chatbot Safety For Suicide-Related Social Media Texts, Rehma Razzak Apr 2026

Ex-04-142 Modeling Distress And Evaluating Chatbot Safety For Suicide-Related Social Media Texts, Rehma Razzak

C-Day Computing Showcase

This project addresses the urgent need for transparent chatbot safety evaluations amid rising concerns about AI-facilitated self-harm. Using public social media datasets, we simulate two tasks: (1) detecting suicidal ideation via emotion-based risk scoring, and (2) stress-testing a support-style chatbot against 888 high-risk prompts, including euphemisms and “for a story” framing. A multi-label classifier trained on GoEmotions feeds emotion profiles into a logistic regression model to generate suicidality risk scores. These scores guide a local chatbot built with Ollama’s llama3, which analyzes user messages and steers responses toward safe, empathetic behavior. Evaluation shows ~90% of replies were safe or supportive. …


Grp-07-163 Smishguard: An Ai-Powered Framework For Sms Phishing Detection And Alert System For Vulnerable Users, Jiban Krisna Das Apr 2026

Grp-07-163 Smishguard: An Ai-Powered Framework For Sms Phishing Detection And Alert System For Vulnerable Users, Jiban Krisna Das

C-Day Computing Showcase

This research introduces SMISH-GUARD, a multi-layer framework for adaptive SMS phishing (smishing) detection that integrates language-aware semantic modeling, graph-theoretic campaign reasoning, and cost-sensitive decision calibration within a unified architecture. The framework integrates dual transformer encoders for multilingual semantic understanding with a heterogeneous temporal graph layer that captures relational attack signals such as shared URLs, sender reuse, and campaign propagation patterns. A cost-sensitive decision optimization module is further incorporated to translate probabilistic model outputs into risk-aware alert policies that explicitly balance false-positive inconvenience against the higher societal and financial cost of missed smishing attacks. The study evaluates four integrated datasets comprising …


Temperature-Induced Uncertainty In Fixed-Context Retrieval-Augmented Generation, Steven Zeng, Murat Kuzlu Apr 2026

Temperature-Induced Uncertainty In Fixed-Context Retrieval-Augmented Generation, Steven Zeng, Murat Kuzlu

Cybersecurity Undergraduate Research Showcase

This study examines how decoding temperature affects output uncertainty in a fixed-context retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) system. We define uncertainty as the semantic dispersion among repeated answers under the same fixed retrieved context, with greater dispersion interpreted as higher uncertainty. To isolate this answer-generation variability from retrieval drift, each question was paired with a fixed retrieved context, and repeated generations differed only in temperature. The experiment used nine questions drawn from a machine-learning textbook corpus, with three questions each at easy, moderate, and hard difficulty. Each question was evaluated at five temperatures (0.0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, and 1.0) over 30 iterations, …


The Item Response Warehouse: What It Is, How To Use It, And Targets For Potential Improvements, Savira D. Nadela, Hansol Lee, Nishka Jain, Ayaan Gupta, Xingyi Zhang, Benjamin W. Domingue Apr 2026

The Item Response Warehouse: What It Is, How To Use It, And Targets For Potential Improvements, Savira D. Nadela, Hansol Lee, Nishka Jain, Ayaan Gupta, Xingyi Zhang, Benjamin W. Domingue

Chinese/English Journal of Educational Measurement and Evaluation | 教育测量与评估双语期刊

The Item Response Warehouse (IRW) is a repository of harmonized item response datasets designed to support secondary analysis and methodological research in psychological and educational measurement. This paper serves as a practical guide for researchers interested in using the IRW. We describe the structure of IRW datasets and the quantitative and qualitative metadata available for dataset selection, and we demonstrate how researchers can navigate the IRW website to explore and compare available tables. We further show how the IRW R and Python packages can be used to filter datasets programmatically, download response-level data, and generate standardized citations for reproducible research …


Reading The Room: A Structural Account Of Constraint-Based Processing And Its Limits In Artificial Systems, Griselda Poe Apr 2026

Reading The Room: A Structural Account Of Constraint-Based Processing And Its Limits In Artificial Systems, Griselda Poe

Publications and Research

This paper does not introduce a new structure.

It makes explicit a structural relation implied but not directly stated in prior work.

Human interpersonal processing is grounded in the co-presence of internal constraint and dependency.

These do not exist as separable components.

They form a single structural condition.

This paper shows that what is commonly described as “reading the room” is not a unitary function.

It differs across configurations in how this condition is processed.

In EF configurations, the effect of this condition is expressed through translation into self-return: outputs are evaluated in terms of how they return to the …


Extreme Cf: A Structural Account Of Processing Absence And Category Absence In Cf-Foregrounded Configurations, Griselda Poe Apr 2026

Extreme Cf: A Structural Account Of Processing Absence And Category Absence In Cf-Foregrounded Configurations, Griselda Poe

Publications and Research

Existing frameworks of cognition and intervention assume that processing occurs, meaning is available, and evaluation can be applied.

This paper describes a configuration in which this assumption does not hold.

In CF-foregrounded processing where modulation is absent, processing occurs only when coherence is satisfied. When coherence is not satisfied, processing does not occur. Under this condition, no representation is generated, no evaluation applies, and no action selection is produced.

Within single-layer cognitive models, EF and CF are not distinguished. Within such models, CF does not exist as a condition.

This configuration has not been represented as a category within existing …


Pre-Experiential Constraint Reconstruction: A Structural Account Of The Prior Layer In Dialogue With Jung, Griselda Poe Apr 2026

Pre-Experiential Constraint Reconstruction: A Structural Account Of The Prior Layer In Dialogue With Jung, Griselda Poe

Publications and Research

Experiences commonly described as pre-experiential memory—such as immediate recognition, familiarity without prior exposure, and the sense of "already knowing"—are typically interpreted as the retrieval of stored content. However, this storage-based account does not provide a structurally consistent explanation of how such content is preserved prior to experience or reactivated in a form that aligns with present input.

This paper extends the three-layer cognitive architecture developed in prior work in this series (Poe, 2026n), in which cognition operates across Core processing, Modulation, and an operationally inaccessible Prior layer that supplies constraints to all processing.

This paper proposes an alternative account in …


Dual History Enhancement With Hybrid Hypergraph-Graph Networks For Temporal Knowledge Graph Reasoning, Kailun Ye, Xiangjie Kong, Yuchao Zhang, Xuan Wang, Linan Zhu, Jiaxin Du, Guojiang Shen, Jianxin Li Apr 2026

Dual History Enhancement With Hybrid Hypergraph-Graph Networks For Temporal Knowledge Graph Reasoning, Kailun Ye, Xiangjie Kong, Yuchao Zhang, Xuan Wang, Linan Zhu, Jiaxin Du, Guojiang Shen, Jianxin Li

Research outputs 2022 to 2026

Temporal Knowledge Graph (TKG) reasoning seeks to predict future events by analyzing historical data, where the effective leverage of both local and global historical facts proves crucial. Existing approaches employ graph neural networks (GNNs) and recurrent neural networks (RNNs) for local evolution patterns, complemented by statistical methods to enhance attention to global facts, demonstrating efficient predictive capabilities. However, traditional GNNs, constrained by their low-order neighborhood aggregation design, inherently fail to model potential high-order dependencies among facts. Furthermore, existing global history modeling approaches may introduce irrelevant historical information that interferes with prediction tasks. To address these limitations, we propose a Dual …


Does Culture Translate? A Case Study On Artificial Intelligencegenerated Text Concerning Japanese-Style Employment, Kanji Kitamura Apr 2026

Does Culture Translate? A Case Study On Artificial Intelligencegenerated Text Concerning Japanese-Style Employment, Kanji Kitamura

Languages, Literatures, and Cultures Faculty Publications

Translation matters to international business when it has a discernible impact on firm performance or critical business processes. Current developments include machine translation, which is evolving in tandem with generative artificial intelligence (AI). On one hand, useful translation apps have become available to help the public communicate internationally. On the other hand, recent research concludes that even machine translation's best output still requires post-editing by a human. This argument implies that a machine-translated, grammatically accurate text may not always make sense to a human audience, possibly because of a semantic-pragmatic issue beyond the lexical level. This paper regards it as …


The Core-Modulation Architecture (Cma): A Structural Overview Of Hallucination As Structural Mismatch, Griselda Poe Apr 2026

The Core-Modulation Architecture (Cma): A Structural Overview Of Hallucination As Structural Mismatch, Griselda Poe

Publications and Research

Hallucination is defined not as factual error but as a structural failure of alignment across target, layer, and constraint.

Within the Core-Modulation Architecture (CMA), cognition proceeds through layered processing and requires layer-specific termination conditions. Hallucination arises when Modulation-level termination is registered as completion while Core-level resolution has not occurred, producing structurally ungrounded but locally coherent outputs.

Detection is therefore structural rather than content-based, focusing on layer mismatch and termination failure.

This document presents a minimal structural account of hallucination within the CMA framework.


Reday Program 2026, Bryant University Apr 2026

Reday Program 2026, Bryant University

Bryant REDay (Research and Engagement Day)

Program for the 2026 Bryant REDay (Research and Engagement Day). Program includes schedule at a glance, descriptions for panels, workshops, and presentations, along with sign-up links for specific sessions in the electronic version of the program. Printed program was in color with double-sided printing on 8 1/2" x 11" paper stapled together in the upper left corner.


The Intricate Dance Of Emotions And Psychophysiology: Unveiling The Secrets Of Microexpressions, Jaiteg Singh, Deepika Sharma, Babar Shah, Sukhjit Singh Sehra, Farman Ali, Irfan Hussain Apr 2026

The Intricate Dance Of Emotions And Psychophysiology: Unveiling The Secrets Of Microexpressions, Jaiteg Singh, Deepika Sharma, Babar Shah, Sukhjit Singh Sehra, Farman Ali, Irfan Hussain

All Works

Background: Emotion recognition plays a pivotal role in behavioral analysis, mental health assessment, and human-computer interaction. Micro-expressions, which are brief and involuntary facial movements, offer valuable insights into concealed emotions. However, validating micro-expressions remains a challenge due to their subtlety and short duration. This study aims to enhance the validation and classification of micro-expressions by integrating electromyogram (EMG) signals with facial action units (AUs). Methods: EMG data was collected using the EMG Muscle Sensor Module V3.0, interfaced with an Arduino Mega 2560 microcontroller. To ensure signal clarity, various data filtration techniques were applied to eliminate noise, motion artifacts, and baseline …


The Expanding Digital Border: Ai, Surveillance, And The Fight For Justice, James Chesser Apr 2026

The Expanding Digital Border: Ai, Surveillance, And The Fight For Justice, James Chesser

Immigration and Human Rights Law Review

As artificial intelligence transforms the mechanisms of immigration control, the modern border has become a digital filter—one governed less by geography and more by code. This Article examines the legal, technical, and ethical implications of AI-driven systems now central to global border enforcement, including biometric surveillance, algorithmic risk scoring, and predictive profiling. It explores how states use these technologies not only to manage irregular migration, but to compete for global talent—constructing migration regimes that reward capital and compliance while eroding transparency, due process, and equality.

Through an international and comparative lens, the piece highlights the expansion of algorithmic decision-making across …


Ais26s: Genai And Llms For Cybersecurity, Political Sciences, Transportation Security, And Resiliency, Latifur Khan Apr 2026

Ais26s: Genai And Llms For Cybersecurity, Political Sciences, Transportation Security, And Resiliency, Latifur Khan

Paul English Applied Artificial Intelligence (AI) Institute Publications

This presentation examines the role of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) and large language models (LLMs) in addressing complex challenges across cybersecurity, political science, and transportation security. Dr. Latifur Khan discusses how advanced AI methods can be applied to threat detection, data analysis, and decision-making in high-risk and data-intensive environments. The talk highlights interdisciplinary applications of LLMs, emphasizing their ability to extract insights from large-scale data, improve system resilience, and support intelligent infrastructure. Emerging research directions and practical implications for real-world deployment are also discussed.


Policy Design, And The Repeal Of Ghana’S Emissions Levy Act: A Multiple Streams Framework Analysis, Anthony Amotoe-Bondzie Apr 2026

Policy Design, And The Repeal Of Ghana’S Emissions Levy Act: A Multiple Streams Framework Analysis, Anthony Amotoe-Bondzie

Collected Student Papers

Ghana’s 2023 Emissions Levy Act (Act 1112) imposed charges on large industrial emitters and vehicles, intending to internalize pollution costs and raise government revenue. This study applies to Kingdon’s Multiple Streams Framework (MSF) to explain the policy’s rapid repeal. Drawing on legislative texts, official reports, and media accounts, it categorizes influences into the problem (rising living costs), policy (design features), and politics (stakeholder mobilization) streams. Key findings reveal that the levy’s mixed design, a per-ton CO₂ fee on industry combined with a flat vehicle ownership tax, undermined its climate rationale and appeared more as a revenue grab. Implementation gaps exacerbated …


Scalable Multi-Task Low-Rank Model Adaptation, Zichen Tian, Antoine Ledent, Qianru Sun Apr 2026

Scalable Multi-Task Low-Rank Model Adaptation, Zichen Tian, Antoine Ledent, Qianru Sun

PhD Student’s Publications Collection

Scaling multi-task low-rank adaptation (LoRA) to a large number of tasks induces catastrophic performance degradation, such as an accuracy drop from 88.2% to 2.0% on DOTA when scaling from 5 to 15 tasks. This failure is due to parameter and representation misalignment. We find that existing solutions, like regularization and dynamic routing, fail at scale because they are constrained by a fundamental trade-off: strengthening regularization to reduce inter-task conflict inadvertently suppresses the essential feature discrimination required for effective routing. In this work, we identify two root causes for this trade-off. First, uniform regularization disrupts inter-task knowledge sharing: shared underlying knowledge …


Semantic Entanglement In Vector-Based Retrieval: A Formal Framework And Context-Conditioned Disentanglement Pipeline For Agentic Rag Systems, Nick Loghmani Apr 2026

Semantic Entanglement In Vector-Based Retrieval: A Formal Framework And Context-Conditioned Disentanglement Pipeline For Agentic Rag Systems, Nick Loghmani

iSchool - All Scholarship

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems deployed in agentic environments depend on the geometric properties of vector representations to retrieve contextually appropriate evidence for autonomous reasoning. When source documents conflate multiple topics within contiguous text regions, standard vectorization pipelines produce embedding spaces in which semantically distinct content occupies overlapping geometric neighborhoods — a condition we term semantic entanglement. This paper formalizes semantic entanglement as a model-relative measure of cross-topic overlap, defines an Entanglement Index (EI) as a quantitative proxy, and argues that higher EI is associated with reduced attainable Top-K retrieval precision under cosine similarity retrieval. We introduce the Semantic Disentanglement …


Stacked From One: Multi-Scale Self-Injection For Context Window Extension, Wei Han, Pan Zhou, Shuicheng Yan Apr 2026

Stacked From One: Multi-Scale Self-Injection For Context Window Extension, Wei Han, Pan Zhou, Shuicheng Yan

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

The limited context window of contemporary large language models (LLMs) remains a primary bottleneck for their broader application across diverse domains. Although continual pre-training on long-context data offers a straightforward solution, it incurs prohibitive data acquisition and computational costs. To address this challenge, we propose SHAREDLLM, a novel framework based on multi-grained context compression and query-aware information acquisition. SHAREDLLM comprises two stacked short-context LLMs: a lower model serving as a compressor and an upper model acting as a decoder. The lower model compresses long inputs into compact, multi-grained representations, which are then forwarded to the upper model for context-aware processing. …


Thinktank-Me: A Multi-Expert Framework For Middle East Event Forecasting, Haoxuan Li, He Chang, Yunshan Ma, Yi Bin, Yang Yang, See-Kiong Ng, Tat-Seng Chua Apr 2026

Thinktank-Me: A Multi-Expert Framework For Middle East Event Forecasting, Haoxuan Li, He Chang, Yunshan Ma, Yi Bin, Yang Yang, See-Kiong Ng, Tat-Seng Chua

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Event forecasting is inherently influenced by multifaceted considerations, including international relations, regional historical dynamics, and cultural contexts. However, existing LLM-based approaches employ single-model architectures that generate predictions along a singular explicit trajectory, constraining their ability to capture diverse geopolitical nuances across complex regional contexts. To address this limitation, we introduce ThinkTank-ME, a novel Think Tank framework for Middle East event forecasting that emulates collaborative expert analysis in real-world strategic decision-making. To facilitate expert specialization and rigorous evaluation, we construct POLECAT-FOR-ME, a Middle East–focused event forecasting benchmark. Experimental results demonstrate the superiority of multi-expert collaboration in handling complex temporal geopolitical forecasting …


Study Of Output And Behavior Of Llms Using Confidence Framing In Prompt Engineering, Micah Parrilla Apr 2026

Study Of Output And Behavior Of Llms Using Confidence Framing In Prompt Engineering, Micah Parrilla

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

While prompt engineering is pivotal for shaping Large Language Model (LLM) outputs, the impact of confidence framing on behavioral calibration remains underexplored. This study investigates the ways in which psychological framing, utilizing techniques such as capability praise, role amplification, and doubt induction, affects linguistic tone, objective accuracy, and internal calibration. A 1,080-trial experimental matrix evaluated six diverse models across factual, logical, coding, and cyber security domains. Analysis using the Kruskal-Wallis H-test revealed highly significant behavioral shifts across all measured dimensions, providing conclusive evidence that the applied frames exert a substantial influence on model performance.

The findings identify a distinct cognitive …