Digital Commons Network^™

A Game-Theoretic Improvement Model For Stochastic Networks: Reliability Vs. Throughput, Jeffrey A. Schavland

Theses and Dissertations

Prescriptive models used to allocate resources for network improvement traditionally have used reliability or flow as Measures of Effectiveness (MOEs). Such metrics do not give value to efforts which make a component more difficult to exploit. This study developed an entirely new MOE for stochastic network improvement, flow damage utility, which uses a two person, zero-sum, non-cooperative game to optimize a probabilistic network for an estimate of expected flow minus performance degradation after a worst case component loss. A multiple criteria optimization problem that uses flow damage utility and an analogous, previously developed metric for the reliability problem is used …

The Application Of Sequential Convex Programming To Large-Scale Structural Optimization Problems, Todd A. Sriver

Theses and Dissertations

Structural design problems are often modeled using finite element methods. Such models are often characterized by constraint functions that are not explicitly defined in terms of the design variables. These functions are typically evaluated through numerical finite element analysis (FEA). Optimizing large-scale structural design models requires computationally expensive FEAs to obtain function and gradient values. An optimization approach which uses the SCP sequential convex programming algorithm of Zillober, integrated as the optimizer in the Automated Structural Optimization System (ASTROS), is tested. The traditional approach forms an explicitly defined approximate subproblem at each design iteration that is solved using the method …

Using Bayesian Statistics In Operational Testing, Thuan H. Tran

Theses and Dissertations

This research explored the applicability of Bayesian methods to the problem of determining the reliability of a series system, a parallel system, and a bridge system. The time to failure of each component in each system is assumed to be exponentially distributed. A basic exponential case and a basic binomial case are also evaluated. In general, using simulated data and real data when possible, the Bayesian methods produced confidence intervals that were much tighter than the classical inference methods, thus allowing a decision maker to have higher confidence in making a decision. System level data and aggregated component level data …

The Measurement Of Human Intellectual Capital In The United States Air Force, Thomas J. Wagner

Theses and Dissertations

For centuries, companies used basically the same accounting system developed in the fifteenth century to measure economic performance. Through much of this period the tangible value of a firm, its plants, property and equipment, was closely related to the market value of the firm. With the dawning of the information age, America has evolved from a manufacturing based economy to a service oriented economy. Closely related to this change from a blue collar to white collar workplace has been the widening gap between the market value of a company and its tangible assets. Roughly equal before, now the tangible assets …

An Analytical Tool To Assess Aeromedical Evacuation Systems For The Department Of Defense, Scott A. Wilhelm

Theses and Dissertations

The research was commissioned by, and conducted for, the HQ AMC Surgeon General to assist him in making a hard decision. Should the McDonnell-Douglas C-9A Nightingale be replaced, and, if so, with what? Using tools based in Keeney's Value-Focused Thinking methodology, the SG's values for this decision were quantified, alternatives that addressed these values were generated, and those alternatives were evaluated using his values to suggest preferred alternatives.

Anderson-Darling And Cramer-Von Mises Based Goodness-Of-Fit Tests For The Weibull Distribution With Known Shape Using Normalized Spacings, Eric W. Frisco

Theses and Dissertations

Two new goodness-of-fit tests are developed for the three-parameter Weibull distribution with known shape parameter. These procedures eliminate the need for estimating the unknown location and scale parameters prior to initiating the tests and are easily adapted for censored data. This is accomplished by employing the Anderson-Darling and Cramer-von Mises statistics based on the normalized spacings of the sample data. Critical values of the new tests are obtained for common significance levels by large Monte Carlo simulations for shapes 0.5(0.5)4.0 and sample sizes 5(5)40 with up to 40% censoring (Type II) from the left and/or right. An extensive Monte Carlo …

An Operational Review Of Air Campaign Planning Automation, William R. Haas

Theses and Dissertations

The air campaign planning process is a complex and dynamic process. Operations research has been applied to this problem to shorten the planning cycle with mixed results. The Joint Force Air Component Commander Planning Tool was developed as an air campaign planning aid. It uses the Conventional Targeting and Effectiveness Model (CTEM) as the force analysis model for master air attack plan (MAAP) planning. This thesis reviews the limitations and assumptions of CTEM and CTEM in JPT from and operational perspective. A new approach to using models in air campaign planning, collaborative planning, is being developed for use with JPT. …

Investigating Sorbent Geometry Response Surfaces From Sorption Rate Data, H. Michael Harrison

Theses and Dissertations

Sorption and desorption of hydrophobic organic compounds (HOCs) into soil particles occurs at Air Force contamination sites. Long-term desorption extends clean up time, costing billions. Accurately modeling desorption will reduce costs and improve clean up designs. State of the art models depict soil as uniform spherical particles which lose the effect of longer sorption path lengths. An alternate approach, the multiple sites in series (MSS) model, describes the sorption capacity of a mixture of soil particle sizes and shapes using a composite particle defined by a two parameter statistical distribution. When the MSS model uses a general radial geometry function …

A Value Focused Thinking Approach To Academic Course Scheduling, Shane A. Knighton

Theses and Dissertations

In 1997, the School of Engineering of the United States Air Force Institute of Technology began exploring ways of automating the academic course scheduling process. The administration desired an expedient approach for course scheduling which supports the institute's mission of "providing scientific and technological education" to officers from all branches of military service, as well as international military forces. The scheduling approach needed to be flexible, efficient, and represent the institute's values and principles. Decision Analysis (DA) and specifically, Value Focused Thinking (VFT), is used to decompose the complex problem of academic course scheduling and determine the factors that are …

A Network Disruption Modeling Tool, James A. Leinart

Theses and Dissertations

Given that network disruption has been identified as a military objective and C2-attack has been identified as the mechanism to accomplish this objective, a target set must be acquired and priorities assigned to each target set. In order to move beyond subjective target prioritization, development and implementation of a methodology and model, that quantitatively measures the value of each target in achieving the objective, is needed in prioritizing targets. This thesis effort uses a vertex cut-set algorithm on a transformation of the graph representing a notional network of interest. The cut-sets generated represent potential target sets. Value-focused thinking and decision …

Cross-Resolution Combat Model Calibration Using Bootstrap Sampling, Bryan S. Livergood

Theses and Dissertations

The US Air Force uses many combat simulation models to assist them in performing combat analyses. BRAWLER is a high-resolution air-to-air combat simulation model used for engagement-level analyses of few-on-few air combat. THUNDER is a low-resolution combat simulation model used for campaign-level analyses of theater-level warfare. BRAWLER is frequently used to ensure that THUNDER air-to-air inputs are valid. This thesis describes the confederation of THUNDER and BRAWLER by clearly showing how one particular BRAWLER output, the effectiveness of a missile type, is transformed into THUNDER air-to-air input data. Since BRAWLER is a stochastic simulation model, it is necessary to replicate …

Application Of Decision Analysis To Evaluate Alternative Research And Development Investments, Michael J. Artelli

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis is an application of decision analysis techniques to the problem of evaluating competing research and development investments and selecting the best portfolio from among the alternatives. In contrast to the current ad hoc approach, decision analysis provides an explicit and easily explained rationale for investment choices, complete and consistent incorporation of multiple objectives, and direct insight into the effects of uncertain investment returns. A hierarchical objective decomposition was used to capture the user's preference structure. The hierarchy was then used to develop a computer-based decision aid to allow the users to quickly and consistently evaluate technology investment options. …

Forecasting Market Index Performance Using Population Demographics, Bradley J. Alden

Theses and Dissertations

This study attempted to verify claims made by forecaster Harry S. Dent, Jr. It utilized regression analysis in order to determine the correlation between the number of births and the closings on a market index with a specified lag between the input and output variables. While the research was able to develop a model with the factor Dent considers the most important, the predictions based on this model did not completely coincide with the forecasts Dent makes. Furthermore, the research could not confirm the accentuation Dent places on a 46-year lag between predictor and response variables. As an extension, scenarios …

Parameter Estimation Of The Mixed Generalized Gamma Distribution Using Maximum Likelihood Estimation And Minimum Distance Estimation, Dean G. Boerrigter

Theses and Dissertations

The Generalized Gamma is an extremely flexible distribution that is useful for reliability modeling. Among its many special cases are the Weibull and Exponential distributions. A mixture of Generalized Gamma Distributions is even more useful because multiple causes of failure can he simultaneously modeled. This research studied parameter estimation of the special cases of the Mixed Generalized Gamma Distribution and built upon them until the full nine-parameter distribution was being estimated. First, special cases of a single Generalized Gamma Distribution were estimated. Next, mixtures of Exponential distributions with both known and unknown location parameters were estimated. Next, mixtures of Weibull …

Calculating A Value For Dominant Battlespace Awareness, Eric A. Beene

Theses and Dissertations

In times of ever-tightening military budgets, methodologies are required that can compare the contributions of various systems involved in the warfighting process. While many tools are in use that directly measure the effects of greater numbers of enhanced hardware, and even improved processes, no validated methodology exists to measure elements that contribute to Command, Control, Communications, and Computers (C4); Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR); or to analytically compare these elements with more traditional hardware. This thesis develops a methodology for mathematically quantifying awareness in a military command and control (C2) environment. This methodology begins with the Observe-Orient-Decide-Act Loop to show …

Sensitivity Analysis Of Brawler Pilot Skill Levels, Daniel C. Buschor

Theses and Dissertations

BRAWLER is a high resolution air to air combat simulation model used for engagement level analyses of few on few air combat. It uses a value driven decision logic to help simulate pilot behavior. In order to account for varied pilot skill levels, BRAWLER has defined three skill levels; Rookie, Pilot, and Ace. A Rookie can track up to three aircraft in its mental model, the Pilot, up to five aircraft, while an Ace has no limit. Further, each skill level varies the amount of time before a known aircraft, which has not been recently observed, is purged from the …

Solving Geometric Knapsack Problems Using Tabu Search Heuristics, Christopher A. Chocolaad

Theses and Dissertations

An instance of the geometric knapsack problem occurs in air lift loading where a set of cargo must be chosen to pack in a given fleet of aircraft. This paper demonstrates a new heuristic to solve this problem in a reasonable amount of time with a higher quality solution then previously reported in literature. We also report a new tabu search heuristic to solve geometric knapsack problems.

A New Sequential Goodness Of Fit Test For The Three-Parameter Weibull Distribution With Known Shape Based On Skewness And Kurtosis, Jonathan C. Clough

Theses and Dissertations

The Weibull distribution finds wide applicability across a broad spectrum of disciplines and is very prevalent in reliability theory. Consequently, numerous statistical tests have been developed to determine whether sample data can be adequately modeled with this distribution. Unfortunately, the majority of these goodness-of-fit tests involve a substantial degree of computational complexity. The study presented here develops and evaluates a new sequential goodness-of-fit test for the three-parameter Weibull distribution with a known shape that delivers power comparable to popular procedures while dramatically reducing computational requirements. The new procedure consists of two distinct tests, using only the sample skewness and sample …

An Airlift Hub-And-Spoke Location-Routing Model With Time Windows: Case Study Of The Conus-To-Korea Airlift Problem, David W. Cox

Theses and Dissertations

Traditionally, the United States Air Force's Air Mobility Command (AMC) has used the concept of direct delivery to airlift cargo and passengers from a point of embarkation to a point of debarkation. This study develops an alternative hub-and-spoke combined location-routing integer linear programming prototype model, and uses this model to determine what advantages a hub-and-spoke system offers, and in which scenarios it is better-suited than the direct delivery method. Additionally, the analysis suggests that the C-17 may be better-suited, in certain airlift situations, for theater airlift versus strategic (direct delivery) airlift. The model features the following elements: time windows, cargo …

A Life Cycle Cost Model For Innovative Remediation Technologies, Osman S. Dereli

Theses and Dissertations

LCC analysis is a powerful tool for investigating the costs of competing systems. This thesis investigates the cost scaling methods to improve the traditional LCC modeling techniques. The motivation for this research is finding a good estimate for the remediation technologies when the contaminant volume is not exactly known. This specific case lead researcher to investigating the methods of cost scaling and effects of inflation in the cost estimation. As a result of study a generic LCC model is developed. Methods for considering inflation and scaling are recommended and embodied into the model. The developed model is applied the specific …

Generating Bomber Routes For The Delivery Of Gravity Weapons, Gregory J. Ehlers

Theses and Dissertations

United States Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM) is updating the Arsenal Exchange Model (AEM) that it uses for allocating strategic weapons to targets. AEM does not model the range constraints on bomber routes. These routes are used to deliver gravity munitions. In order to include these constraints in the new method, the Weapons Allocation Model (WAM), a pool of routes that satisfy the range constraints needs to be created. The number of possible routes to consider is extremely large and it is not possible to enumerate them all. Therefore, the method to form the pool of routes needs to reduce the number …

Analysis Of Alternatives: Multivariate Considerations, John J. Siegner

Theses and Dissertations

The Aeronautical System Center (ASC) is developing a Simulation and Analysis Facility (SIMAF) that will link models, simulations, hardware-in-the-loop, and system-in-the-loop resources to create a robust virtual environment supporting assessment of alternate systems in the defense acquisition process. ENS is assisting ASC with scenario development, experimental design, and battleroom visualization efforts for a SIMAF capability demonstration. This thesis uses multivariate analysis and visualization tools to develop an approach for reducing the dimensionality of multiple campaign level measures of effectiveness for a notional Analysis of Alternatives (AoA) study. Additionally, the thesis advances an AoA visualization paradigm for the SIMAF capability demonstration. …

Acuta Enews February 1998, Vol.27, No. 2

ACUTA Newsletters

In This Issue

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ACUTA Board of Directors 1998-1999

Board Report

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DC at a Glance

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A Study To Analyze And Improve Mechanical And Electro-Mechanical Designs Using Design For Quality Manufacturability (Dfqm) Technique, Bhavani P. Veerapaneni

Theses

The competitive nature of modern manufacturing demands that an innovative approach be used to build advanced and robust designs. Shortening the product development time, which is the period from initial design to full production, is a priority to most manufacturers today. Design for Quality Manufacturability (DFQM) is a methodology to address manufacturing / assembly quality issues during product design. As a consequence DFQM helps shorten the product development time.

The DFQM methodology addresses the issue of quality manufacturability (QM) - the likely hood that defects will occur during the manufacture of a product in a standard plant. The DFQM architecture …

Acuta Enews January 1998, Vol.27, No. 1

ACUTA Newsletters

In This Issue

School NOT Required to Contribute to USF

What's Your Biggest Challenge for 1998?

Board Report

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Analyzing Cable Needs and Planning for the Future at CMU

Tech Partners at Cal State

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DC at a Glance

Position Available

Welcome New Members

Development Of A Quality Assurance Plan For A Microbrewery, Matthew J. Williams

Theses: Doctorates and Masters

Quality assurance (QA) has become a key factor to business success in the marketplace. Within Australia, companies normally approach QA by implementing formal systems which maintain the consistency of manufacturing processes, and hence, the quality of subsequent output. These systems have increasingly been based upon the international series of standards, ISO 9000.In the food industry, safety is a minimum requirement for food quality. As Governments and food authorities have endeavoured to reduce the incidence of foodborne illnesses, they have promoted the implementation of additional systems developed to a specific standard for food safety, namely Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point (HACCP). …

A Multithreaded Scheduler For A High-Speed Simulator, Gene Saghi, Kirk Reinholtz, Paul Savory

Department of Industrial and Management Systems Engineering: Faculty Publications

The Cassini spacecraft is on its journey to Saturn to perform a close-up study of the Saturnian system; its rings, moons, magneto-sphere, and the planet itself. Sequences of commands will be sent to the spacecraft by ground personnel to control every aspect of the mission. To validate and verify these command sequences, a bit-level, high-speed simulator (HSS) has been developed. To maximize performance, the HSS is implemented with multiple threads and runs on a multiprocessor system. A key component of the HSS is the scheduler, which controls the execution of the simulator. The general framework of the scheduler can be …

On-Line Team Project Communication Tool Set, Halvard E. Nystrom, D. R. Risco

Engineering Management and Systems Engineering Faculty Research & Creative Works

Team projects offer a valuable mechanism for effective learning. However, communication within the team, with the instructor and between different teams is a challenging task that can greatly limit the effectiveness of the learning experience. Some of the tools and concepts that are being developed for distance learning applications can be used to enhance team project communication within teams that are geographically separated as well as for in-campus teams. This article documents a set of on-line tools that allow for asynchronous team participation and timely monitoring and feedback by the instructor.

A Hybrid System For Well Test Analysis, Edward A. May, Cihan H. Dagli

Engineering Management and Systems Engineering Faculty Research & Creative Works

Petroleum well test analysis is a tool for estimating the average properties of the reservoir rock. It is a classic example of an inverse problem. Visual examination of the pressure response of the reservoir to an induced flow rate change at a well allows the experienced analyst to determine the most appropriate model from a library of generalized analytical solutions. Rock properties are determined by finding the model parameters that best fit the observed data. This paper describes a framework for hybrid network to assist the analyst in selecting the appropriate model and determining the solution. The hybrid network design …

A Transmission-Constrained Unit Commitment Method, Chung-Li Tseng, Chao-An Li, S. S. Oren, C. S. Cheng, A. J. Svoboda, R. B. Johnson

Engineering Management and Systems Engineering Faculty Research & Creative Works

The paper presents a transmission-constrained unit commitment method using a Lagrangian relaxation approach. The transmission constraints are modeled as linear constraints based on a DC power flow model. The transmission constraints, as well as the demand and spinning reserve constraints, are relaxed by attaching Lagrange multipliers. The authors take a new approach in the algorithmic scheme. A three-phase algorithm is devised including dual optimization, a feasibility phase and unit decommitment. A test problem involving more than 2500 transmission lines and 2200 buses is tested along with other test problems