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International Evidence On The Demand For Money, Ray C. Fair

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

One of the current questions in the literature on the demand for money is whether the adjustment of actual to desired money holdings is in nominal or real terms. This paper describes a simple procedure that can be used to test the nominal against the real hypothesis. The test is carried out for 27 countries. The paper also tests the structural stability of the demand for money equations and the correctness of the dynamic specification.

A Strategic Market Game With Complete Markets, Rabah Amir, Siddhartha Sahi, Martin Shubik

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Existence of equilibrium is proved for an exchange strategic market game with complete markets. An example of equilibrium with inconsistent prices is given.

The Dividend-Price Ratio And Expectations Of Future Dividends And Discount Factors, John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

A linearization of a rational expectations present value model for corporate stock prices produces a simple relation between the log dividend-price ratio and mathematical expectations of future log real dividend changes and future real discount rates. This relation can be tested using vector autoregressive methods. Three versions of the linearized model, differing in the measure of discount rates, are tested for United States time series 1981-1986: versions using real interest rate data. The results yield a metric to judge the relative importance of real dividend growth, measured real discount rates and unexplained factors in determining the dividend-price ratio.

Restraint Economics And The New Right: A Structural Analysis Of The Political Economy Of Social Services Cutbacks, John Butcher

The Journal of Sociology & Social Welfare

Restraint by government in the area of social service spending in the 1980's has become an issue of grave concern for social service practitioners, planners, and administrators. The emergence in North America of neo-conservative economic policies has engendered a body of critical and provocative literature which examines the effects of "restraint economics".

Recent work in geography has sought to locate the supply-side trend within a framework of macro-level processes. These suggest that a declining public commitment to maintaining the social safety net is linked to broader structural changes in the workplace and spatial shifts of capital and industry (Dear & …

Understanding Spurious Regressions In Econometrics, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper provides an analytical study of linear regressions involving the levels of economic time series. An asymptotic theory is developed for regressions that relate quite general integrated random processes. This includes the spurious regressions of Granger and Newbold (1974) and the recent cointegrating regressions of Granger and Engle (1985). An asymptotic theory is developed for the regression coefficients and for conventional significance tests. It is shown that the usual t- and F-ratio test statistics do not possess limiting distributions in this context but actually diverge as the sample size T ↑ ∞. The limiting behavior of regression diagnostics such …

Crop Share Rental Terms In South Dakota, Lary Janssen, Scott Peterson

Economics Commentator (1972- 2016)

No abstract provided.

Finance Capitalism 1986 Style, Hyman P. Minsky Ph.D.

Hyman P. Minsky Archive

The title page has the notation "mondo-nov" possibly indicating that this was intended for the publication Mondoperaio which Minsky wrote for. Also, according to some handwritten notes found on pages, this was one of several papers that Minsky once housed together with letters to Mario Baccianini who was also affiliated with Mondoperaio.

A Game Theoretic Approach To The Theory Of Money And Financial Institutions, Martin Shubik

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This is a sketch of a game theoretic and gaming approach to the development of an appropriate microeconomic theory of money and financial institutions. The phrase “money and financial institutions” is used to stress that a theory of money alone cannot be fruitfully constructed in an institutional vacuum. The monetary and financial system of an economy are part of the socio-politico-economic control mechanism used by every state to connect the economy with the polity and society. This neural network provides the administrative means to collect taxes, direct investment, provide public goods, trade. The money measures provide a crude but serviceable …

Knightian Decision Theory: Part 1, Truman F. Bewley

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

A theory of choice under uncertainty is proposed which removes the completeness assumption from the Anscombe-Aumann formulation of Savage’s theory and introduces an inertia assumption. The inertia assumption is that there is such a thing as the status quo and an alternative is accepted only if it is preferred to the status quo. This theory is one way of giving rigorous expression to Frank Knight’s distinction between risk and uncertainty.

Forecasting The Depression: Harvard Versus Yale, Ray C. Fair, Matthew D. Shapiro, Kathryn M. Dominguez

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Was the Depression forecastable? After the Crash, how long did it take contemporary economic forecasters to realize how severe the downturn was going to be? How long should it have taken them to come to this realization? These questions are addressed by studying the predictions of the Harvard Economic Service and Yale’s Irving Fisher during 1929 and the early 1930’s. The data assembled by the Harvard and Yale forecasters are subjected to modern statistical analysis to learn whether their verbal pronouncements were consistent with the data. We find that both the Harvard and Yale forecasters were systematically too optimistic, yet …

Demographic Analysis And Projections_Nov 1986, University Of New Mexico Bureau Of Business And Economic Research

BBER Publications

The report introduced BBER's new Demographic Analysis and Projections Service (DAPRO) and provided county-level population and employment forecasts for all 33 New Mexico counties through 2005. The study combined demographic modeling, migration analysis, employment forecasts, and economic outlook assessments to support state and local planning.

Population Projections For New Mexico_Nov 1986 (2), Lynn Bodin Wombold, Brian Mcdonald, John Temple

BBER Publications

The report provides county-level population projections by age and sex and employment forecasts through 2005, using a cohort-component demographic model linked to economic and migration forecasts. It was designed to support planning, infrastructure development, public services, and economic analysis throughout New Mexico.

Demographic Analysis And Projections Srv_1980-2005, University Of New Mexico Bureau Of Business And Economic Research

BBER Publications

The report presents historical demographic trends and forward‑looking population projections for the SRV region from 1980 to 2005, including an analysis of population change, age structure, and household characteristics.

Population Projections For New Mexico_Nov 1986 (3), Lynn Bodin Wombold, Brian Mcdonald, John Temple

BBER Publications

The report provides county-level population projections by age and sex and employment forecasts through 2005, using a cohort-component demographic model linked to economic and migration forecasts. It was designed to support planning, infrastructure development, public services, and economic analysis throughout New Mexico.

Population Projections For New Mexico_Nov 1986, Lynn Bodin Wombold, Brian Mcdonald, John Temple

BBER Publications

The report provides county-level population projections by age and sex and employment forecasts through 2005, using a cohort-component demographic model linked to economic and migration forecasts. It was designed to support planning, infrastructure development, public services, and economic analysis throughout New Mexico.

Public Policy Toward Corporate Takeovers, Murray L. Weidenbaum

Murray Weidenbaum Publications

It should not be government's role to "do something" about hostile takeovers. Many studies show that more harm than good is done when government interferes. Boards of directors need to realize that they need to make choices that serve the desires of their shareholders.

Farmland Cash Rental Terms In South Dakota, Lary Janssen, Scott Peterson

Economics Commentator (1972- 2016)

No abstract provided.

Understanding Reagan, Hyman P. Minsky Ph.D.

Hyman P. Minsky Archive

An undated paper which was apparently housed by Minsky in a file with a letter addressed to Mario Baccianini dated 10.29.1986.

Global Consequences Of Financial Deregulation, Hyman P. Minsky Ph.D.

Hyman P. Minsky Archive

Wallenberg Forum: “Financial Fragility and Global Growth.” 2 October 1986.

Given here are:

The published article:

A complete draft

The article as a Working Paper

A Precis of the article

An outline.

Economic Activities Of Children In Two Iranian Villages, Akbar Aghajanian

Sociology Department Faculty Working Papers

No abstract provided.

The Tax Reform Now Passing Through Congress Evades The Issue Of Fairness …The Political Issue Of Tax Reform Will Not Go Away, Hyman P. Minsky Ph.D.

Hyman P. Minsky Archive

One of the ongoing columns “The Economy from the Not-so Ivory Tower.”

Ben R. Finney's Review Of Andrew Strathern's Inequality In New Guinea Highlands Societies, Ben R. Finney

Pacific Studies

No abstract provided.

Valerio Valeri's Review Of André Itéanu's La Ronde Des Échanges: De La Circulation Aux Valeurs Chez Les Orokaiva, Valerio Valeri

Pacific Studies

No abstract provided.

Vol. 10 No. 1 (1986): Pacific Studies Front Matter, The Jonathan Nāpela Center For Hawaiian And Pacific Islands Studies

Pacific Studies

Pacific Studies is published two times a year by The Jonathan Nāpela Center for Hawaiian and Pacific Studies, Brigham Young University Hawai‘i #1979, 55–220 Kulanui Street, Lāʻie, Hawai‘i 96762, but responsibility for opinions expressed in the articles rests with the authors alone. Subscription rate is US$40.00 yearly, payable to The Jonathan Nāpela Center for Hawaiian and Pacific Studies. The Jonathan Nāpela Center for Hawaiian and Pacific Studies (formerly The Pacific Institute) is an organization funded by Brigham Young University Hawai‘i. The Center assists the University in meeting its cultural and educational goals by undertaking a program of teaching, research, and …

Enough Commodity Money And The Selection Of A Unique Competitive Equilibrium, Martin Shubik

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Suppose that we reformulate the exchange economy as a strategic market game. As all purchases are paid for in cash it is possible to attach precise meaning to what is meant by enough money. As the game is a single simultaneous bid and offered at m trading posts and m prices are all simultaneously determined, in essence the trading technology is completely specified.

Testing For Cointegration Using Principal Component Methods, Peter C.B. Phillips, Sam Ouliaris

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper studies cointegrated systems of multiple time series which are individually well described as integrated processes (with or without a drift). Necessary and sufficient conditions for cointegration are given. These conditions form the basis for a new class of statistical procedures designed to test for cointegration. The new procedures rely on principal components methods. They are simple to employ and they involve only the standard normal distribution. Monte Carlo simulations reported in the paper indicate that the new procedures provide simple and apparently rather powerful diagnostics for the detection of cointegration. Some empirical applications to macroeconomic data are conducted.

Vol. 10 No. 1 (1986): Pacific Studies Full Issue, The Jonathan Nāpela Center For Hawaiian And Pacific Islands Studies

Pacific Studies

Pacific Studies is published two times a year by The Jonathan Nāpela Center for Hawaiian and Pacific Studies, Brigham Young University Hawai‘i #1979, 55–220 Kulanui Street, Lāʻie, Hawai‘i 96762, but responsibility for opinions expressed in the articles rests with the authors alone. Subscription rate is US$40.00 yearly, payable to The Jonathan Nāpela Center for Hawaiian and Pacific Studies. The Jonathan Nāpela Center for Hawaiian and Pacific Studies (formerly The Pacific Institute) is an organization funded by Brigham Young University Hawai‘i. The Center assists the University in meeting its cultural and educational goals by undertaking a program of teaching, research, and …

George E. Marcus's Review Of Jocelyn Linnekin's Children Of The Land: Exchange And Status In A Hawaiian Community, George E. Marcus

Pacific Studies

No abstract provided.

The Unique Minimal Cash Flow Competitive Equilibrium, Martin Shubik

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The exchange economy E can be reformulated as a strategic market game. In particular the point of concern here involves the introduction of a specified amount of credit or fiat money to monetize exchange. Dubey and Shubik (1979) and Shubik and Wilson (1977) have studied the possibility of introducing a fixed amount M of money to finance trade. When one formulates exchange as a game of strategy using any form of credit or fiat money where there is any possibility whatsoever that an individual will be unable to pay back that which he has borrowed, the rules of the game …

Interest Rate Volatility And The Demand For Money, James Mcgibany, Farrokh Nourzad

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

No abstract provided.