Digital Commons Network^™

Unintended Consequences: Exploring The Nexus Between Us Foreign Aid, Governance, & Conflict Fatalities, Audrey Hope Donahue

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the impact of United States foreign aid on civil violence in recipient countries, specifically investigating the interaction between aid implementation channels—bilateral aid, implemented directly by recipient governments, vs. multilateral aid, implemented through Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) or other multilateral partners—and governance quality. Using a panel dataset covering 49 countries from 1996 to 2022, the study measures the effect of aid on violence through conflict-related fatalities normalized by population. A fixed-effects regression model is employed to control for country-specific and time-specific factors, revealing that in countries with poor governance, bilateral aid is associated with a reduction in conflict fatalities, …

What Factors Have Contributed To The Growth In The Unified Payments Interface In India?, Anahit Bindra

CMC Senior Theses

The Unified Payments Interface (UPI), introduced in 2016, has driven the rapid growth of cashless transactions and digital adoption in India. By 2023, India led global real-time payments, processing 129 billion transactions. Using data from the Reserve Bank of India across 30 states and union territories, this study examines the factors driving UPI’s growth. We analyze panel data from 2018 to 2021, incorporating variables related to financial literacy, infrastructure, economic indicators, and demographics. Employing an Ordinary Least Squares model, we regress the log of the volume of UPI transactions per 1,000 people on these determinants. Our findings reveal that UPI …

Exploring Unicorns Of India: What Are The Factors That Allow Them To Fly?, Tanisha Kejriwal

CMC Senior Theses

Over the past few decades, startups and entrepreneurial ventures have surged globally, with unicorns - private startups valued at over $1 billion - emerging as standout success stories. Today, India is home to the third largest number of unicorns in the world, and studying their success factors is becoming increasingly relevant. Using a novel dataset of 112 Indian unicorns, this paper studies economic, founder, regional and industrial factors influencing their valuation/revenue and valuation/profit ratios, in order to identify factors that lead to start-up success. I find that gender, age, total funding raised, and time taken to achieve unicorn status after …

From Pixels To Proposals: Exploring The Effects Of Empathy And Immersion On Economic And Moral Decision - Making In Video Games, Alex Dien

CMC Senior Theses

This study explores the role of immersive environments, specifically video games, in shaping empathy and decision-making during economic exchanges like the Ultimatum Game. Traditional economic models emphasize rationality, but more recent research highlights the influence of emotions and empathy on decision-making. Using a 2x2 between-subjects design, this proposed study will investigate how varying levels of immersion (active gameplay versus passive observation) and fairness of offers (fair versus unfair) affect participants' responses to non-human characters (NPCs). I plan to recruit eighty participants, aged 18-25, to engage with a video game, Red Dead Redemption 2 (Rockstar Games, 2018) either through playing or …

Weathering The Storm: Examining The Impact Of Unexpected Inflation On Industry Returns, Casper Hoving

CMC Senior Theses

This paper analyzes the cross-sectional differences of how unexpected inflation affects industry returns, controlling for market factors and firm characteristics. The methodology builds upon Bernard (1986) in trying to explain and detect differing cross-sectional effects by industry, but instead considers daily reactions to the release of monthly CPI figures. My hypothesis was that higher unexpected inflation would have a negative effect on industry returns but when controlling for market factors and firm characteristics the reactions would be dampened. The findings of this study confirm that higher unexpected inflation tends to have a negative effect on market returns, but show mixed …

The Solar Power Of Pricing: Does Electricity Pricing Policy Drive Residential Solar Demand?, Talia De Beer

CMC Senior Theses

Solar energy has emerged as a pivotal renewable energy source, experiencing significant growth in the United States over the past two decades. As policymakers continue to develop and refine the best methods to incentivize solar adoption while reflecting true costs and potential equity concerns, this paper seeks to evaluate the impact of changes in solar pricing policies on residential solar installations. Employing a difference-in-differences regression model, this study examines the effects of policy changes on both the system capacity and number of installations of adoption in three Western states that have transitioned away from traditional Net Energy Metering (NEM) policies–Arizona, …

High ‘Steaks’: Does Lone Star Tick-Induced Red Meat Allergy Reduce Cardiovascular Disease-Related Hospitalizations?, Raj Parekh

CMC Senior Theses

In this thesis, I investigate the relationships between Lone Star Tick-induced Alpha-Gal Syndrome (AGS), red meat consumption, and cardiovascular health outcomes within New York State's 62 counties from 2012 to 2021. The analysis examines whether AGS, which forces individuals to reduce red meat consumption, serves as a natural experiment in understanding dietary impacts on cardiovascular disease (CVD). Leveraging panel data, I utilize Fixed Effects (FE) and Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) regression frameworks to disentangle the relationships between red meat expenditure, meat prices, Lone Star Tick prevalence, and health outcomes such as CVD, stroke, coronary heart disease, and heart attack hospitalization …

Just As Advertised: The Perception And Effectiveness Of Artificial Intelligence In Digital Advertising, Brandon Isem Cáceres

CMC Senior Theses

What do you think when you hear “AI in advertising”? Does it spark intrigue, or does it feel like just another tech buzzword? In today’s fast-paced digital marketing landscape, connecting with consumers is a high-stakes challenge, and artificial intelligence is at the forefront of innovation. From automating campaigns to creating hyper-targeted content, AI promises efficiency and precision—but how do audiences perceive this shift? By analyzing key performance indicators (KPIs) like impressions, click-through rates, and cost-per-click in an an original A/B test, this thesis evaluates the perception and effectiveness of AI-driven advertising strategies. Combining historical insights, case studies, and an original …

China’S Economic Slowdown: How Does It Affect New Zealand’S Economy?, Haven Qin

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the impact of China’s economic slowdown on New Zealand’s economy, focusing on sector-specific linkages across real estate, the stock market, exports, and import prices. As a small open economy, New Zealand’s deep integration with global markets makes it particularly vulnerable to external shocks from its largest trading partner. Employing OLS regression models and monthly economic data, this study reveals the nuanced pathways through which China’s economic conditions influence New Zealand. Key findings include the sensitivity of New Zealand’s housing market to Chinese property investments and Chinese stock market performance, the influence of Chinese financial market performance on …

Pay-Performance Sensitivity: How Firm Performance Impacts Ceo Compensation, Yuefeng Ma

CMC Senior Theses

This study investigates the relationship between firm performance and CEO compensation, revisiting and extending the foundational framework established by Jensen and Murphy (1990). The sample comprises compensation data for the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of all publicly traded companies on the Wharton Research Data Services (WRDS) Compustat – ExecuComp dataset from 1994 to 2023. Using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression models, the analysis evaluates the sensitivity of CEO pay to changes in shareholder wealth and other performance metrics, while accounting for structural and temporal shifts driven by corporate governance, macroeconomic environment, and legislation. The findings reveal that changes in shareholder …

Evaluating The Dual-Faceted Growth Strategies In The Healthcare Sector: A Comparative Analysis Of Organic Innovation And Inorganic Expansion, Isabel Carter

CMC Senior Theses

In order to stay competitive in an expansionary industry like healthcare, companies must consistently meet market demands for growth. This paper builds an empirical model to identify which growth strategies are most highly rewarded by the public markets. The model consists of a data set of 70 healthcare companies, across various healthcare verticals, to measure market returns from 2010 to 2023. The number of completed acquisitions is used as a proxy to identify each company’s propensity towards a growth strategy. Factors from the Fama-French Model and dummy variables used to signal growth strategy expertise, indicate that firms who invest more …

The Impact Of Ceo Changes On The Recovery Of It Firms That Have Experienced Substantial Reductions In Value (2010-2024), Amanda Dee

CMC Senior Theses

The informational technology (IT) industry is one of the most dynamic industries, and the CEO plays a crucial role in steering innovation. The dependence on innovation is associated with dynamics that bring heightened volatility and force firms and their CEOs to confront significant challenges, particularly when navigating periods of substantial reductions in value. I define distress as three-year cumulative returns that are negative and underperform the market by more than 30%. Firms that meet this criteria during 2010-2017 are analyzed using regression models to assess how CEO change influences the likelihood of their recovery, defined as achieving nine-year cumulative returns—including …

Procedural Reform And One-Sided Litigation: Evaluating The Impact Of California’S Fair Debt Buying Practices Act, Kaitlyn Seever

CMC Senior Theses

This study evaluates whether California’s Fair Debt Buying Practices Act (CFDBPA), effective January 2014, improved litigation outcomes in consumer debt lawsuits. The CFDBPA sought to curb abusive practices by imposing heightened documentation requirements on debt buyers. Using a dataset of 535,766 limited-jurisdiction debt collection cases filed in Los Angeles County between 2012 and 2022, a constrained difference-in-differences event study design compares outcomes between secondary and non-secondary debt buyers before and after the law’s implementation.

The analysis finds modest changes: dismissals for secondary buyers increased slightly relative to non-secondary buyers, but default judgment rates remained high. Defendant response rates declined for …

Trade Tensions And Consumer Decisions: Evidence From Taxable Sales During The 2018 Us-China Trade War, Eddie Wei

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the consumption response to the 2018 US-China trade war. While prior research has largely focused on economic outcomes such as export values, income, and employment, trade policies may also have salient distributional consequences for consumption. On one hand, import tariffs may boost well-being in regions with greater employment in protected sectors, such as manufacturing. On the other hand, retaliatory tariffs may raise prices overall and depress consumption in areas more reliant on the Chinese market, such as agriculture. To explore these dynamics, I construct a novel dataset of county-level taxable sales, capturing both household and business spending. …

You Lose, You Lag: Evidence From 2020 And 2024 On U.S. Partisan Bias, Presidential Election Defeat, And Perceived Future Real Income, Brandon O. Felix

CMC Senior Theses

Recent presidential elections, in particular the two most recent ones, have revealed striking partisan divides, not only in political attitudes but also in household economic expectations. This study investigates how partisan electoral loss shapes perceived changes in real income across income groups, using data from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers surrounding the 2020 and 2024 U.S. presidential elections. I employ ordered logistic regression models for the baseline models and generalized ordered logistic regression models for those models with pertinent demographic controls in order to analyze the probability of respondents expecting real income losses, stability, or gains, respectively. Generating …

Crowding-In Between Public And Private Investment In Developing Countries, Wally Bargeron

CMC Senior Theses

The tendency for public investment to crowd-in or crowd-out private investment is the subject of controversy in economic literature. This paper studies the relationship between public and private investment in fixed capital from 1970 to 2019 in 68 developing countries across Africa, Asia, Eastern Europe and Latin America. I find evidence for a crowding-in relationship between public and private investment overall. The crowding-in effect is larger in countries with high scores for measures of good governance, including a score that measures legal framework for businesses and a score that measures corruption.

Heat And Hardship: Energy Price Increases And Heatstroke Risks In Japan During The Global Energy Crisis, Kenshin Ueoka

CMC Senior Theses

Given the global rise in surface temperatures due to climate change, it is important to understand the interactions governing economic and behavioral responses to household heat adaptation. This study investigated the relationship between energy prices and heatstroke risks in Japan. The analysis revealed that the increase in energy prices during the 2021 global energy crisis was associated with an unexpected decrease in home heatstroke emergency room visits. This result is consistent with the Peltzman effect and moral hazard problem, as reduced economic access to air conditioning may have increased risk perception, heightening heatstroke prevention measures. The ambiguity of this result …

When Consumers See It Coming: How Anticipation Affects The Domestic Cost Of Tariffs, Pierce D. Sanderson

CMC Senior Theses

Tariffs implemented by President Trump in 2018 were unexpected and significant, incurring large costs to U.S. consumers. This study examines the effect of tariff anticipation on price, quantity, and value effect on imports in the United States. Specifically, it focuses on tariffs implemented during Obama’s second term in office from 2012 to 2016 on the automotive, technology, and manufacturing industries. The findings present a significant divergence from the literature on the effects of 2018 tariffs, finding a near full pass-through of tariffs to foreign exporter prices rather than U.S. consumers. Specifically, a one percent increase in tariffs resulted in a …

The Impact Of Job Loss On Health-Related Outcomes During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Kelly Prawira

CMC Senior Theses

In this paper, I explore the effects of job loss during the COVID-19 pandemic on self-reported general and mental health conditions and health insurance coverage. Using Medical Expenditure Panel Survey data from 2018-2022, I evaluate the effects of job loss on these health-related outcomes by conducting a year-over-year analysis. I also examine changes in job loss effects during the pandemic by performing a difference-in-differences analysis. Overall, I find that job loss is associated with a higher likelihood of having fair or poor general and mental health, a higher likelihood to have Medicaid/SCHIP, and a lower likelihood to have private insurance. …

Skilled Immigrant Labor And Ai Innovation: A Longitudinal Panel Analysis Of H-1b Sponsorship Effects On Ai Patenting, Xinyue Zhang

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines how firm-level access to high-skilled immigrant labor, measured through H-1B visa petitions and approvals, affects innovation in artificial intelligence (AI). Using a panel dataset linking firm-year H-1B filings from the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) Employer Data Hub to AI patent records from the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) between 2009 and 2019, the analysis estimates fixed effects regressions predicting AI patenting activity. The results show that H-1B approvals are positively and significantly associated with future AI patent counts, while petitions alone are not. Alternative specifications using inverse hyperbolic sine transformations and changes in …

The Uncertain Promise Of Foreign Bank Entry: Institutional Quality Effects On The Foreign Bank–Financial Inclusion Nexus, Jason Dedman

CMC Senior Theses

Despite the precipitous rise in foreign bank presence due to ever increasing financial globalization, the literature on the nexus between foreign banks and financial inclusion remains critically underdeveloped. This paper revisits the relationship between foreign bank presence and financial inclusion in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs), extending the methodology of Gopalan and Rajan (2018) by integrating updated ownership data from Panizza (2024) and introducing institutional quality as a moderating variable. Employing both fixed effects and system generalized method of moments on a panel dataset of 128 EMDEs, this study finds that foreign bank presence has a far more ambiguous effect …

Batteries For Grid Stability: The Impact Of Utility-Scale Battery Installation On Electricity Price Volatility In California, Hannah Vestring

CMC Senior Theses

As renewable energy penetration increases, driven largely by solar, electricity prices have become increasingly volatile due to the intermittency of supply, increasing the need for price stabilizing interventions. This study examines the impact of cumulative additions of utility-scale battery energy storage systems (BESS) capacity on real-time market (RTM) electricity price volatility within the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) between 2020 and 2024, taking a long-term, system-wide perspective on storage deployment. Using an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression framework, the analysis finds that cumulative BESS capacity is significantly associated with reduced price volatility in the benchmark model, with results remaining robust …

Beyond The Bank Account: Financial Inclusion And Maharashtra's Microenterprises, Kyra F. Variyava

CMC Senior Theses

Financial inclusion has evolved from mere bank account ownership to a broader imperative that encourages the active and consistent use of financial services to cultivate practices of savings and better financial management. Focusing on the underserved communities of Maharashtra’s microenterprise sector, this thesis evaluates the effectiveness of four central financial inclusion schemes: Pradhan Mantri MUDRA Yojana, Credit Guarantee Fund Trust for Micro and Small Enterprises, Stand-Up India, and Pradhan Mantri Street Vendor’s AtmaNirbhar Nidhi. This thesis develops a four-dimensional evaluative framework, assessing each scheme’s performance in accessibility, awareness and financial literacy efforts, adoption of digital services, and accountability and oversight …

Climate Change And Ski Resort Ownership Consolidation, Gabriel Yang

CMC Senior Theses

Based on a collected dataset of ski resort ownership records and localized climate data spanning 1920-2020, I analyze how environmental volatility affects firm-level outcomes. Using multinomial logit regression models, I examine whether changes in snowfall, precipitation, and temperature are associated with higher probabilities of acquisition, particularly by large conglomerates. Preliminary results suggest that climate volatility, specifically around minimum and maximum temperature, is becoming increasingly important in affecting ownership transfers. Resorts with higher volatility in warm-day temperatures are less likely to be acquired by both conglomerates and non-conglomerates, while cold volatility has become less important over time as snowmaking capabilities are …

The Counter-Cyclicality Of Earnings Management: Evidence Through 2024, William J. Hall

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and earnings management, extending the analysis of Hillegeist and Lin (2019) using updated data through 2024. Based on 16,635 firm-quarter observations, my study affirms the results found in prior literature and confirms that there is a negative association between the change in GDP and the direction of firms’ earnings management behavior, indicating that earnings management is counter-cyclical. My study also finds that firms manage earnings asymmetrically based on the current macroeconomic state, with firms managing earnings more in economic downturns and less in expansions. My findings suggest that despite major macroeconomic and …

Optimizing Bitcoin Allocation: Predictability Of Bitcoin Portfolio Weights Through Macroeconomic Variables, Kirby Baynes

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines whether Bitcoin is a beneficial asset in a diversified, mean-variance optimized portfolio and whether its portfolio weights can be reliably predicted using macroeconomic variables. Using data from December 2013 to February 2025, the analysis applies rolling-window portfolio optimization and OLS regressions with Newey-West standard errors to test the relationship between Bitcoin allocations and a set of macroeconomic indicators. Results show that Bitcoin receives non-zero weights across portfolios and that its optimal allocation is sensitive to variables such as changes in the Credit Spread and Yield Curve. These variables were statistically significant in several models and produced meaningful …

Clutch Or Comfortable? How Franchise Tags Influence Qb Performance In The Nfl, Justin Edwards

CMC Senior Theses

Abstract

The National Football League (NFL) has a type of contract known as the Franchise Tag. The Franchise Tag is a one-year contractual extension often used when a player and a team cannot come to terms regarding the details of a contract extension. Usually, the player expects to be paid more than the organization can afford that year due to restrictions imposed by the salary cap. Because of this, Franchise-Tagged players tend to have a greater incentive to perform well in hopes of being signed into a long-term contract. My findings show that the incentive of future earnings and job …

The Role Of Economic Sanctions In Shaping International Trade Relationships Case Study: Russia, Chick Edmond

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

Economic sanctions play an influential role in international relations by shaping the behavior of states. To address security threats and uphold international norms, countries seek to punish those responsible in violating these principles through the use of economic sanctions. The paper examines the impact of economic sanctions on trade relationships and its consequences on the Russian Economy. It also seeks to analyze the evolution of trade embargo during the post-cold war era to a more resilient and sophisticated measures in the age of globalization. Through this historical perspective, this analysis examines an important case study such as Russia by evaluating …

Covariance Matrix Forecasting Of Equity Portfolios, Michael Nebor

Graduate Research Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation consists of two papers. The first paper introduces DCC-SVR, a hybrid Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) method of forecasting the covariance matrix. This paper shows that DCC-SVR is able to outperform the traditional methods of DCC and rolling historical on multiple data sets. Performance is shown for both standard GARCH and GJR-GARCH methods. This paper also analyzes performance when dimensions are increased to 49 dimensions and when an application using equal weighted portfolio allocation is used.

The second paper introduces a covariance matrix forecasting method based on copula-GARCH simulated returns. The accuracy of this …

An Analysis Of Mental Health And Workplace Absenteeism, Kristin Marie Vrona

Graduate Research Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation examines the effect of mental health on own health-related absenteeism among employed adults in the United States, using data from the 2010–2014 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS). The MEPS uniquely differentiates between absences due to one’s own health and those due to another person’s health, enabling causal estimation of individual-level factors influencing absence decisions.

The analysis incorporates both mental and physical health measures, including diagnostic indicators and self-reported general well being, which are used as proxies for severity that may affect both diagnosed and undiagnosed individuals. Results reveal a consistent pattern: individuals experiencing high psychological distress but lacking …