Digital Commons Network^™

Competing Societal Objectives In Epidemic Mitigation: A Modeling Study Of Covid-19 In The Philippines, Rob Johnson, Rolly Czar Joseph T. Castillo, Cymon Kayle Lubangco, Timothy Robin Teng, Mark Tolentino, Christian Morgenstern, Patrick Doohan, David Haw, Giovanni Forchini, Elvira De Lara-Tuprio, Joselito T. Sescon, Katharina Hauck

Economics Department Faculty Publications

School closures and suspension of non-essential economic activities are highly effective respiratory-pandemic mitigation strategies because they effectively interrupt disease transmission. However, they come with high societal costs. Most of these costs are borne by workers who lose their income, especially those who are not supported by welfare benefits, and students whose future income depends on their education. In countries where many households live close to the poverty line, closures should be designed to minimize impacts on the most vulnerable. The objective of this study is to learn and compare policy responses that minimize the number of people that fall below …

The Security Trilemma: A Critical Research Agenda, Adem Yavuz Elveren, David M. Fields

Working Papers

No abstract provided.

Home Care Workers, Immigration, And An Aging Population, Catherine Ipsen, Luke Santore

Employment

The size of the Home Care Worker (HCW) workforce has not kept pace with demand, and inadequate compensation and benefits have historically contributed to poor HCW recruitment and retention. Demographic trends put further strain on the workforce, with immigrants, naturalized citizens, and Black and Indigenous People of Color (BIPOC) individuals currently making up the majority of the HCW workforce.

Policy changes, cuts to benefits, and immigration crackdowns threaten to further weaken the supply of HCWs while the demand continues to rise. In this report, Catherine Ipsen and Luke Santore provide analysis and strategies to support HCWs and strengthen the Personal …

Price Dislocations: Insights From Trade Repository Data, Albert Menkveld, Lucas Saru, Shihao Yu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper identifies price dislocation events in EuroSTOXX 50 futures, i.e., periods marked by high absolute returns. Combining public limit order book data with confidential trade repository data collected under the European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR), we analyze market conditions around such dislocations. We find that price dislocations are accompanied by an increase in trading volume, and in the number of trades. EMIR data enables us to identify who participates in these trades, which allows us to tell if the volume increase is driven by fewer investors trading more, i.e., a more concentrated market, or by more investors participating. The …

Beyond The Budget: Financial Literacy In Tyler, Tx, Manuel Reyes-Loya, Cecilia Cuellar, Sara Maldonado

Hibbs Brief

In this issue of the Hibbs Brief, the importance of financial literacy in Tyler, Texas is explored as a key factor influencing household decision-making and community resilience. The brief discusses how gaps in financial knowledge and access — including budgeting, saving, borrowing, and digital financial tools — affect people's ability to build stability, with lower financial literacy linked to higher debt and limited opportunities for long‑term financial success. It emphasizes the need for expanded financial education and resources to strengthen individual financial capability and support regional economic well-being.

The Lexicographic Preference And The Tops-Only Property, Xinning Geng

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This paper studies the structure of the lexicographic preference domain in the context of strategy proof Random Social Choice Functions (RSCFs). Classical sufficient conditions for the tops-only property—namely, the Interior and Exterior Properties—do not hold in lexicographic domains. Nevertheless, these domains still exhibit the tops-only property. We first provide a structural explanation of why the Interior and Exterior Properties fail in this setting. We then introduce two new structural conditions, Property 1 and Property 2, and show that any two-dimensional lexicographic preference domain satisfying these conditions is a tops-only domain. Finally, we prove that the two-dimensional lexicographic domain meets both …

Poking Holes And Adding Points In Dictator Games, James C. Cox, Cary Deck, Laura Razzolini, Vjollca Sadiraj

ESI Working Papers

Deviations from choices predicted by self-regarding preferences have regularly been observed in standard dictator games. Such behavior is not inconsistent with conventional preference theory or revealed preference theory, which accommodate other-regarding preferences. By contrast, experiments in which giving nothing is not the least generous feasible act produce data that is inconsistent with conventional preference theory including social preference models and suggest the possible relevance of reference point models. Two such models are the reference-dependent theory of riskless choice with loss aversion and choice monotonicity in moral reference points. Our experiment includes novel treatments designed to challenge both theoretical models of …

Balancing Act: Addressing Child Quantity-Quality Trade-Off In The Philippine Households With Educational And Health Social Programs, John Andrew A. Alsol, Marie Carroline Magante

Economics Department Faculty Publications

The child quantity-quality (CQQ) trade-off has been extensively studied in economic research since it was first introduced by Becker and Lewis in 1973. Studies have argued that the current economic circumstances and the presence of government aid in education and health determine the existence and extent of the CQQ trade-off. However, there is a dearth of empirically tested research on the possible decreasing effects of social programs on the CQQ trade-off. Using the 2019 Annual Poverty Indicators Survey, this paper seeks to determine the effect of education and health social programs on the CQQ trade-off in the Philippines. Probit models …

Competition Through Entry Fees Between Auctions For Differentiated Objects, Massimiliano Landi, Domenico Menicucci, Domenico Colucci

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper considers two competing auctions with objects differentiated according to the random utility framework introduced in Perloff and Salop (1985): bidders privately observe their values for the two objects, and values are ex ante i.i.d. across objects and across bidders. For the case of uniform distribution of values, we show that competition under entry fees is less intense than competition under reserve prices in the sense that sellers are better off, and bidders are worse off when competition takes place with entry fees rather than under reserve prices. The key difference between the two settings is that undercutting under …

Gmm Estimation With Brownian Kernels Applied To Income Inequality Measurement, Jin Seo Cho, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

In GMM estimation, it is well known that if the moment dimension grows with the sample size, the asymptotics of GMM differ from the standard finite dimensional case. The present work examines the asymptotic properties of infinite dimensional GMM estimation when the weight matrix is formed by inverting Brownian motion or Brownian bridge covariance kernels. These kernels arise in econometric work such as minimum Cramér–von Mises distance estimation when testing distributional specification. The properties of GMM estimation are studied under different environments where the moment conditions converge to a smooth Gaussian or non-differentiable Gaussian process. Conditions are also developed for …

How Fair Workweek Laws Affect Labor Markets: A New York City Case Study, Joseph Pickens, Aaron Sojourner

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

Academic General And Subspecialty Pediatric Promotion Timelines And Lifetime Earnings, Lubaina Ehsan

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

Question What is the association between academic promotion timelines and lifetime earnings of general pediatricians and pediatric subspecialists? Findings In this cross-sectional study of 19 111 academic pediatricians, earlier promotion was consistently associated with significantly higher net present value of lifetime earnings, regardless of subspecialty or salary percentile. Physicians who were never promoted faced financial losses exceeding $2 million to $3 million in some fields and would need to work approximately 10 additional years to match the net present value of peers on a baseline promotion trajectory. Meaning These findings suggest that promotion timing is a critical determinant of long-term …

Women’S Mba Peers Affect Their Course Choices, Career Paths, And The Gender Pay Gap, Mallika Thomas

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

Religious Security As A Component Of National Security In The Sphere Of Social And Economic Communication, Yevhen Kharkovshchenko, Vitalii Nitsenko, Yevhen Piletskyi, Mariia Nesterova

Occasional Papers on Religion in Eastern Europe

National security is proposed to be viewed as a coordinated open system that, in addition to the religious, also includes military, economic, social, and other components. Considering religion as part of such an open system makes it possible to distinguish two mutually directed vectors of communication within religious communities: from church leaders to the faithful and vice versa. This presupposes feedback communication links that allow a denomination to balance interactions among the actors of church–society relations. The concept of “communication” in the context of religious and national security is thus expanded from a narrow understanding of information exchange to an …

Final Offer Arbitration With Asymmetric Evidence, Yongjoon Kim, Afia Promi, Jiatong Xue, Cary Deck

ESI Working Papers

As disputants increasingly rely upon arbitration it is critical to understand outcomes that are likely to arise from mechanisms like final offer arbitration. While a sizable experimental literature investigating strategic behavior in final offer arbitration exists, that work has overwhelmingly focused on situations where the arbitrator’s beliefs about the appropriate resolution are symmetric and uninfluenced by the disputants’ cases. This paper considers a setting where the arbitrator’s beliefs depend on the strength of each disputant’s case. We find disputant responses to changes in the relative strength of their case generally follow comparative statics predictions. Further, we find that final offers …

Berrien County Talent Ecosystem, Lee Adams, Val Klomparens

Reports

No abstract provided.

Rewilding The Built Environment: Navigating Economic, Political, And Social Barriers To Urban Ecological Restoration, Carly E. Smith

PANDION: The Osprey Journal of Research and Ideas

Urban rewilding offers a nature-based approach to restoring ecological processes in cities while advancing climate resilience, biodiversity, and public well-being. Unlike conventional green infrastructure, rewilding allows ecosystems to develop with minimal intervention, emphasizing succession, complexity, and long-term adaptability. This paper examines the political, economic, and social factors that frame how rewilding is understood and implemented in urban planning. Governmental frameworks often prioritize order, predictability, and short-term results, making it difficult to accommodate the uncertainty and ecological complexity that rewilding requires. Economic models struggle to capture its long-term value, frequently overlooking ecosystem services or reconciling competing land uses. Social perceptions of …

Understanding Film Tax Credits In Nevada And Nationally, Michael J. Brown, David F. Damore, William E. Brown Jr.

Policy Briefs and Reports

This policy primer provides an overview of Nevada’s transferable tax credit program for film and other productions and reviews articles, reports, audits, and studies of film tax credits as a tool for economic development in the United States. This review considers a significant body of work analyzing the use of film tax credits in support of economic development. Studies and state audits often show that because film tax credits do not create the number and quality of full-time jobs necessary to merit their costs and do little to stimulate other related industries, they are a poor financial choice for state …

Exploring The Impact Of Guangdong Province's Talent Policies On The Retention Of Fresh Master's Graduates For Employment In Guangdong, Kai Hong Sun

Lingnan Theses (Doctoral degree)

University graduates' choice of local employment serves as a core driver for promoting regional economic innovation, by effectively meeting corporate talent demands and injecting high-quality talent resources into regional development. This dynamic holds strategic significance for sustaining regional economic growth and fostering social stability. Talent policies attract graduates to local employment by offering preferential conditions and development opportunities while advancing their career growth and achieving mutual benefit and win-win outcomes for both talent and regions. Investigating the influence of talent policies on graduates' employment location decisions holds practical relevance in the current context.

This research examines the mechanisms through which …

Understanding Rice Production Stagnation In The Philippines: Regional Evidence And Development Implications, Henry Bartelet, Alenn Jhulia D. Prodigalidad, Janelle S. Dy, Jan Gabriel N. Manzano

Quantitative Methods and Information Technology Faculty Publications

Despite decades of investment in agricultural research and rice development, the Philippines continues to face stagnation in domestic rice production. This persistent trend, occurring despite a sizable arable land base and large rural workforce, has contributed to the country’s growing reliance on rice imports to meet national food needs. In response, the government has implemented a tariff-based import system designed to fund domestic productivity improvements. While previous studies have explored the technical and environmental constraints affecting rice production, such as irrigation shortfalls, land degradation, and climate variability, few have examined recent national trends using regionally disaggregated data alongside qualitative insights. …

Object Play In Tsimane Children: Implications For Sex-Specific Division Of Labour, Ava Moser, Michael D. Gurven, Hillard Kaplan, Benjamin C. Trumble, Jonathan Stieglitz, Paul Hooper, Daniel Cummings, Adrian Jaeggi, Kathelijne Koops

ESI Publications

Sex-specific division of labour and the associated use of different subsistence techniques by males (e.g. hunting) and females (e.g. gathering) has played an important role in shaping human societies. Skills needed in adulthood are practiced in play during childhood and object play has been proposed to foster tool-use skills necessary for adult subsistence techniques. Here, we investigated sex differences in the ontogeny of object play in Tsimane children in Bolivia to understand its potential role in shaping gender-specific adult roles. We used observational data (>80,000 scan samples) from nine Tsimane communities collected between 2002 and 2007. We analysed age …

How Fair Workweek Laws Affect Labor Markets: A New York City Case Study, Joseph Pickens, Aaron Sojourner

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

Sustainable Consumption Under Structural Constraint: Insights From Indigenous Communities On The Great Plains, Glen Marshall, Rand Wergin

Mountain Plains Business Conference

Resource-constrained communities, particularly Indigenous and remote communities, remain critically understudied in the business literature despite persistent socioeconomic challenges. This study employs a mixed-methods approach to explore barriers to sustainable consumption in these resource-limited contexts. It examines consumer attitudes toward sustainability and identifies key barriers to sustainable consumption. Understanding these barriers is crucial for entrepreneurs seeking profitable and socially beneficial ventures, as well as for policymakers designing social or economic initiatives. This research provides actionable insights for tribal governments, business professionals, policymakers, and others seeking to promote sustainable economic growth, community health, and positive externalities in underserved communities.

Credit Union Member Benefits: Does Local Religiosity Matter?, Travis Davidson, Thanh Ngo, Hongxia Wang

Finance and Economics

We examine the impact of religiosity on credit union member benefits and document a positive association between local religiosity and member benefits. Members of credit unions in more religious counties enjoy lower interest rates on loans, higher interest rates on deposits, and consequently lower interest spreads. The effect varies by credit union types, and results suggest a stronger association between religiosity and member benefits for credit unions with a narrower field of membership. Further analysis indicates local religiosity is associated with improved operating performance, lower non-interest expenses, and higher quality earning assets, but increased liquidity risk. The results are robust …

If We Tear It Down, We Might Build You A New One: The Troublesome Use Of Eminent Domain And Urban Neighborhood Swimming Pools, Steven N. Waller Ph.D., James H. Bemiller

International Journal of Aquatic Research and Education

Public swimming pools are a vital part of America’s recreation and sport culture since the early 1900’s. Municipal swimming pools were initially built to provide recreation and hygiene to urban communities, regardless of race or class. However, a complex history of segregation, civil unrest, suburbanization, and funding challenges has resulted in a significant decline in public pools, depriving many communities of vital recreational spaces. In many communities, options for sustaining the operation of swimming pools have resulted in pool closures. Unfortunately, once swimming pools close, especially those in aging neighborhoods in central city areas, they are seldom resurrected. They quickly …

Learning About Stability Of Risk Preferences, Levon Barseghyan, Francesca Molinari, Joshua C. Teitelbaum

Georgetown Law Faculty Publications and Other Works

Classical theories posit that risk preferences are stable across decision contexts. Two branches of empirical literature assess this claim. Structural approaches examine within-person consistency of model-based estimates of risk aversion, while “model-free” approaches examine within-person correlations of risky choices. We elucidate the latent structure underlying the model-free approach. Using this structure, we develop a new approach to assessing preference stability that has stronger testable implications, and we partially identify features of stability and heterogeneity of risk preferences. Our study illustrates a general principle: partial identification through minimal assumptions grounded in economic theory robustly bridges fully structural and model-free methods.

Heteroskedastic Ordered Probit Models With An Artificial Neural Network For Predicting Potential Consumer Ratings On Amazon Software Reviews, Jikhan Jeong

Economics Faculty Research & Creative Works

The ordered probit model is widely used to make inferences about ordinal dependent variables in the social sciences, while neural network models have proven effective for classification tasks across various domains. Although other scholars have proposed ordinal classification models using neural networks, empirical studies combining ordered probit models with neural networks remain limited. To date, no studies have examined ordered probit models with neural networks under the assumption of heteroskedasticity. Accordingly, this paper demonstrates the predictive performance of an ordered probit model with an artificial neural network (OPANN) using different activation functions. In addition, it introduces a newly developed heteroskedastic …

The Effect Of Renewable Energy Consumption, Economic Growth, And Energy Use On Co₂ Emissions In Indonesia: An Ardl Analysis, Raihan Ahmad Mustofa, Mariam Kamila, Rininta Nurrachmi, Syifa Shafnastiara

Jurnal Kebijakan Ekonomi

Abstract This study examines the dynamic relationship between renewable energy consumption, total energy use, economic growth, and CO₂ emissions in Indonesia over the period 1990–2021 using an ARDL approach. The results show a stable long-run relationship with quick adjustment after shocks. In the long run, energy consumption is associated with higher CO₂ emissions, reflecting the continued dominance of fossil fuels. Renewable energy helps reduce emissions in the short term, but its long-term impact remains statistically insignificant. GDP does not show a significant effect, suggesting that meaningful decarbonization will require a more intensive shift in the energy mix.

Keywords: ARDL, renewable …

Safely Exploring Novel Actions In Recommender Systems Via Deployment-Efficient Policy Learning, Haruka Kiyohara, Yusuke Narita, Yuta Saito, Kei Tateno, Takuma Udagawa

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

In many real recommender systems, novel items are added frequently over time. The importance of sufficiently presenting novel actions has widely been acknowledged for improving long-term user engagement. A recent work builds on Off-Policy Learning (OPL), which trains a policy from only logged data, however, the existing methods can be unsafe in the presence of novel actions. Our goal is to develop a framework to enforce exploration of novel actions with a guarantee for safety. To this end, we first develop Safe Off-Policy Policy Gradient (Safe OPG), which is a model-free safe OPL method based on a high confidence off-policy …

Does Idiosyncratic Volatility Follow A Random-Walk? Evidence From U.S. Stocks, Zihan Cao, Ossama Elhadary

Publications and Research

In asset pricing literature, idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) measures the firm-specific risk that is not explained by broader market movements. In this study, I investigate whether the idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) of individual stocks follows a random-walk. Using monthly residuals from the Fama-French three-factor model (Fama & French, 1993), I estimate IVOL for more than 11,000 U.S. stocks, and apply the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (Said & Dickey, 1984) to determine whether IVOL behaves like a random-walk. While most stocks display random-walk behavior, the proportion varies across industries, with some sectors showing deviations from random-walk behavior. Stocks with different levels of average return …