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Dampak Kebijakan Hilirisasi Nikel: Kuasi-Eksperimen Di Sulawesi, Siddiq Robbani, Uka Wikarya

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

Studi ini menganalisis dampak kebijakan larangan ekspor bijih nikel (2014–2016) dan pembangunan smelter (2009–2021) terhadap PDRB per kapita dan konsumsi rumah tangga per kapita menggunakan data panel seimbang dari 81 kabupaten/kota di Sulawesi periode 2006–2021. Dampak kausal dan efek spillover dianalisis menggunakan metode Difference-in-Difference (DiD) dan Spatial Durbin Model (SDM). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan kebijakan larangan ekspor tidak berdampak pada kedua variabel. Pembangunan smelter justru berdampak negatif terhadap PDRB per kapita, tetapi menghasilkan efek spillover positif pada PDRBperkapita daerah tetangga dan efek spillover negatif terhadap konsumsi rumah tangga per kapita di daerah non-smelter.

El Paso Business Cycle Downturn Analysis: 1991 – 2025, Steven L. Fullerton, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr.

Border Region Modeling Project

Recession indicator research for the United States and other national economies has accelerated since 2019. Because of relative ease of implementation, these indices show much promise and expand the business cycle toolkit for applied economists, policy analysts, and business planners. From a regional perspective, a potentially attractive feature of these indices is fairly minimal data requirements. This study extends this branch of the business cycle literature into the realm of regional economics. An application of the framework is developed for El Paso, Texas, USA. That metropolitan economy is a natural candidate for this type of exploratory analysis because of the …

Ccb Release Impact On Indonesia’S Bank Lending: A Difference-In-Differences Approach, Sang Tyas Suci, Beta Yulianita Gitaharie

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

This study investigates the impact of Indonesia’s Capital Conservation Buffer (CCB) release on loan growth during the COVID-19 recession. Using a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) approach and bank-level data from 2019:Q1 to 2022:Q2, it analyzes how regulatory capital relief affected lending. The results indicate that the regulation was an effective countercyclical tool to increase loan growth, particularly among less-capitalized banks. The research contributes to the limited empirical evidence on capital buffer policies in emerging markets by examining the effectiveness of temporary capital relief in crisis contexts. We suggest future research on the buffer reimposition and exploring its implications for post-crisis lending behavior.

Strategic Peer Region Selection For Economic Development, Xiaobing Shuai, Riley Ford

School of Professional and Continuing Studies Faculty Publications

Benchmarking against peer and aspirational regions is essential for economic development because it provides meaningful context for evaluating performance and shaping strategy. These comparisons help highlight regional advantages that attract new investments, as well as uncover gaps that may represent opportunities for future growth. ...

This article provides a practical, data-driven framework that economic development organizations can use to identify peer and aspirational regions, strengthen benchmarking efforts, and support strategy development. A case study illustrates how this can be applied to better interpret economic indicators and inform decision-making. For EDOs, this approach offers a more consistent way to evaluate competitiveness, …

Financial Literacy And Inclusion Of Philippine Jeepney And Tricycle Drivers, Bryan N. Bernabe, Jyro B. Triviño

Leadership and Strategy Faculty Publications

The study investigated how the different elements of financial literacy influence the financial inclusion of jeepney and tricycle drivers in Caloocan, Metro Manila. Pearson correlation analysis revealed a positive correlation between financial inclusion and attitude, behavior, knowledge, and skills. Additionally, analysis of variance highlighted that education and age play significant roles in enhancing financial literacy. The linear regression findings also supported the idea that income acts as a positive moderator, augmenting the impact of financial literacy on financial inclusion. The study attempted to disaggregate its financial literacy components to understand their impact on financial inclusion, but its interrelationships also require …

Monetary Policy And Equity Market Reactions: Linking Monetary Theory To Sector Level Etf Performance, Joseph Freedman

Research Honors

This project examines how the economic framework of U.S. monetary policy translates into financial market outcomes by studying sector level equity responses to changes in the Federal Reserve’s effective federal funds rate. While monetary policy theory emphasizes how interest rates influence investment, borrowing costs and risk taking, financial markets reflect these mechanisms through asset prices. Exchange traded funds provide a useful lens for studying this connection, as they aggregate firm level behavior into tradable sector portfolios.

Using daily data from 2004 to 2025, this study analyzes eleven S&P 500 sector exchange traded funds to evaluate how monetary policy shocks are …

Dampak Program Pembangkit Listrik 35.000 Mw Terhadap Tingkat Pekerjaan Dan Kemiskinan Di Indonesia, Yohanes Dwi Anggoro, Jahen Fachrul Rezki

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

This research analyzes the 35,000 MW Program’s impact on employment and poverty levels in Indonesia using the Callaway and Sant’Anna Difference-in-Differences (CSDID) method. The research uses panel data at the district/city level from 2007 to 2022. The analysis shows the program has a significant impact on reducing poverty, with an average reduction of 5,208 poor people in Model 1; 4,277 people in Model 2; and 4,284 people in Model 3. Based on a subset of regions, the analysis shows the program had a significant impact on increasing the employment rate by 1.2 percent, reducing 16,034 poor people in the Java-Madura-Bali.

Dampak Peraturan Daerah Terkait Kesehatan Terhadap Prevalensi Stunting Tingkat Kabupaten/Kota Di Indonesia, Cakra Yudi Putra, Teguh Dartanto

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

Stunting remains a major public health challenge in Indonesia with long-term impacts on health, cognition, and productivity. This study examines whether health-related regional regulations (Peraturan Daerah or Perda) reduce stunting prevalence across 338 districts/municipalities in 2007 and 2013. Using Difference-in-Differences (DiD) and DiD with Propensity Score Matching (DiD-PSM) on secondary data from Riskesdas, Statistics Indonesia (BPS), and the Legal Documentation and Information Network (JDIH), we find no statistically significant causal effect of cumulative health Perda on stunting reduction, although OLS shows a negative association. Sanitation significantly reduces stunting in eastern Indonesia. Findings highlight the need for evidence-based, multisectoral, measurable, implementable, …

Do Variations In State Consultation Programs Affect Construction Fatality Rates?, Wayne B. Gray

Economics

Background: Along with its enforcement program, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) has a voluntary consultation program that responds to requests from firms to identify hazards at their workplaces. We studied the effects of this program on fatal work injuries in the construction industry. Methods: We first examined differences across states in their consultation programs using data from 2016 through 2022, during which time 47,418 consultation visits were conducted in construction. These included differences in frequency of consultation visits at construction firms, the average number of hazards identified per visit, and the scope of those visits. We then used …

Valuing Water Quality Using Benefit Transfer Methods, Robert Johnston, Klaus Moeltner, Stephen C. Newbold, Dennis Guignet

Economics

This article summarizes methods, prospects, and methodological questions for water quality benefit transfer. Benefit transfer is the use of welfare estimates from settings where original valuation research has been conducted to predict similar estimates for other settings, allowing quantification of benefits and costs when original valuation studies are infeasible. Water quality has been among the most researched areas of benefit transfer, in part due to requirements for benefit-cost analysis within policies and programs that affect surface and ground water. The article begins with a review of benefit transfer methods and characteristics of water quality that challenge transfer validity. We then …

The Impact Of Remittances On Food Security In Times Of Crisis—Evidence From Covid-19 In Latin America And The Caribbean, Colin Cannonier

Funded Scholarship

This study examines the association between workers’ remittances and food insecurity in Latin America and the Caribbean using data from a Coronavirus survey covering over 100,000 individuals during the COVID-19 pandemic. Results indicate that receipt of remittances is associated with an 8.8% decrease (2.5% points) in overall food insecurity. Heterogeneous effects are observed among females, individuals in Latin America, and households with children. Remittances from the USA exhibit a stronger influence on reducing food insecurity. The findings underscore the potential importance of remittances in improving food security at both extensive and intensive margins. Policy issues are also discussed.

Education And The Maternal Childcare Gap: Evidence From The Uk Covid-19 Pandemic, Lara Bakhaya

Honors Theses

This paper examines whether college education shapes working mothers’ access to remote work, flexible working, and childcare hours in the United Kingdom, and whether COVID-19 school closures amplified these inequalities. Using data from the UK Time Use Survey (2016–2021), a repeated cross-sectional diary dataset spanning the pre-pandemic period and five COVID-19 waves, this paper estimates weighted logistic and ordinary least squares regressions on a sample of married or cohabiting, employed mothers. School closures serve as a natural experiment, providing an exogenous shock to caregiving demands that affected all mothers simultaneously regardless of education level. College education significantly predicted working from …

Pay Gaps At The Top: How Ceo–Executive Compensation Disparity Affect Firm Performance, Anh Que Diep

Honors Theses

This paper examines the relationship between executive compensation disparity and firm performance using S&P 500 firms. CEO Pay Slice (CPS) is used to measure pay disparity, and firm performance is measured by Tobin’s Q and ROA. The results from fixed effects models show an inverted U-shaped relationship between CPS and firm performance, with performance maximized at approximately a 60% CEO Pay Slice. Further analysis decomposes CPS into fixed and performance-based components. The results show that fixed compensation disparity is positively and consistently associated with firm performance, while performance-based disparity has weaker and less robust effects. Taken together, the findings suggest …

Mechanisms Driving Disparities In Income Mobility Across The Income Distribution, Joe Larkins

Honors Theses

This study examines intergenerational income persistence across the income distribution, testing whether mechanisms driving inequality differ between families in the top and bottom halves of the income distribution. Using data from the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS:88), a nationally representative longitudinal survey of 8th grade students and their parents, this research estimates an interaction model comparing parental income effects for children in advantaged versus disadvantaged economic circumstances. The analysis reveals that a $1,000 increase in parental income yields eight times greater income gains for children in the bottom half of the distribution compared to those in the top …

Mnes Vs. Local Firms’ Resilience To Global Shocks: Evidence From The 2008 Financial Crisis And Covid-19, Yijie Wang

Honors Theses

This thesis examines whether multinational enterprises (MNEs) are more resilient than domestic firms during major global shocks, using the 2008 Financial Crisis and COVID-19 as case studies. Although MNEs may benefit from diversification, internal capital markets, and foreign linkages, they may also face greater exposure to global demand shrinkage and supplychain disruption.

Using Compustat North America firm-level panel data from WRDS, this study analyzes publicly listed U.S. and Canadian firms across 2007–2013 and 2018–2024. Firm resilience is measured through net sales, net income, and gross profit using a two-way fixed effects panel model. Multinational status is identified through two different …

From Shock To Routine: The Evolving Impact Of Shutdown-Related Sentiment On Stock Markets, Yiran Shao

Honors Theses

To address gaps in existing research, this paper selects two U.S. government shutdown periods, 2018-2019 and 2025, as research samples to explore the effect of policy uncertainty on sentiment. This paper primarily analyzes the following two research questions.

First, what is the correlation between government shutdown-related sentiment during the shutdown period and daily market fluctuations? Specifically, can the sentiment index constructed from shutdown-related news effectively predict the next-day stock return during the event period?

Second, does the market have a learning effect? That is, between 2018-2019 and 2025, has the relationship between shutdown-related emotions and market outcomes weakened, shortened the …

Borrowing By Committee: An Analysis Of The Link Between Government Type And Sovereign Debt, René Polanco

Honors Theses

Previous literature is divided about the impact of democracy on sovereign debt. In the context of the third wave of autocratization (Lührmann & Lindberg, 2019), this paper uses a new dataset (the Episodes of Regime Transformation) focused on regime transitions to analyze the impact of democracy and regime change on the levels of sovereign debt for a panel of 167 nations between 2008 and 2024. I examine how democracy impacts debt level, borrowing, and debt service and dovetail these results with analogous ones regarding how states of transition impact the same measures. By including this extra wrinkle of government transition, …

Assessing Attitudes Toward Ai Futures: Perceived Likelihood And Policy Preferences, David Chavanne

Economics Faculty Publications

The experiment presented in this paper uses vignettes to measure the perceived likelihood of different AI futures and assess how policy preferences change across these futures. One vignette varies the degree of future AI-driven job loss in a hypothetical scenario set five years into the future, while another vignette varies the degree of future AI autonomy across the same timeframe. Participants provide their perceived likelihood that the world will resemble the scenario in the vignette, and they also express their level of support for either universal basic income (UBI) or a jobs-guarantee program (JG) if the world in five years …

Book Review: Virtuous Bankers: A Day In The Life Of The Eighteenth-Century Bank Of England, David L. Cleeton

Faculty Publications – Economics

In Virtuous Bankers: A Day in the Life of the Eighteenth-Century Bank of England, Anne Murphy performs an exemplary feat of historical reconstruction. While most economic histories focus on the high-altitude movements of capital or the grand political maneuvers of central banks, Murphy descends into the dust and ink of Threadneedle Street. By framing her study as a single, composite day in the life, she transforms a dry institutional history into a sensory, professionally guided experience of the 1780s.

The Impact Of Student Achievement On Economic Growth: A Pisa-Based Analysis Of Gdp Per Capita, Emma Rose Nasr

Undergraduate Theses and Capstone Projects

This study investigates the extent to which international student achievement, measured through PISA assessments in mathematics, reading, and science, explains cross-country differences in economic development. Using an unbalanced panel data set combining PISA results from 2015, 2018, and 2022 with macroeconomic indicators from the World Development Indicators, I estimate multiple regression models, including pooled OLS, country and time fixed effects, and subsample analyses for developed and developing countries. Results from the pooled model indicate strong positive associations between PISA scores and GDP per capita, consistent with human capital theory. However, these relationships diminish under fixed effects specifications, suggesting that cross-country …

Visit Complexity Differs Between Scarring And Nonscarring Alopecia: A 5-Year Dataderm Analysis, Ian Noel Encarnacion, Noelle Desir, Nicholas Schell, Apoorva Mehta, Temitayo Ogunleye, Susan Taylor

Department of Medicine Faculty Publications

[Introduction] Accurate coding is a critical component of dermatologic practice, influencing reimbursement and documentation of clinical complexity. Although alopecia has significant psychosocial and financial burdens, Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) coding patterns in alopecia management remain largely understudied. Our population-level study using the American Academy of Dermatology's DataDerm clinical registry¹ evaluates alopecia CPT coding trends, pre-2021 and post-2021 evaluation and management (E/M) CPT coding updates,² aiming to inform coding practices and visit complexity, which have significant reimbursement implications.

Essays On Financial Econometrics And Macro-Financial Forecasting, Zhendong A. Li

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

The first chapter proposes an innovative supervised learning technique for dimension reduction and forecasting financial and macroeconomic time series in the presence of weak factors that can undermine the effectiveness of traditional Principal Component Analysis (PCA). This approach employs double or multiple supervised learning procedures and is termed ``Supervised Scaled Principal Component Analysis'' (SsPCA). Initially, each predictor is scaled using its predictive slope on the target forecast variable, giving more weight to those with stronger predictive abilities and less to those with weaker ones. Subsequently, utilizing the scaled predictors, we intelligently identify the most informative subset for prediction. This involves …

Structural And Intersectional Factors In Full Retirement: Insights For Black Men, Waleed Sami

Adultspan Journal

This interview centers the full retirement experience of Anthony Crawford. This perspective highlights the complex interplay between social determinants, intersectional identity, the psychology of working, and social class/social mobility, as key factors in his lived experiences. The relationship between structural factors and interpersonal factors continues to be a growth edge in counseling, as counselors frequently report lack of knowledge or comfort in their relationship with counseling. This interview seeks to fill the gap and demonstrate a concrete way to develop clinical insights. The full interview is transcribed and provided, along with practical and research implications for counselors working with populations …

Shrinkflation And Consumer Demand, Aljoscha Janssen, Johannes Kasinger

Research Collection School Of Economics

This study investigates shrinkflation—the practice of reducing product size while maintaining or slightly changing prices—in the U.S. retail grocery market. We analyze a decade of retail scanner data to assess the prevalence and patterns of product size changes across various product categories. Our findings show that approximately 1.92% of products have been downsized. When comparing total sales, product downsizing is more than five times as prevalent as upsizing. Product downsizing typically occurs without a corresponding decrease in price and is widespread across product categories. Consequently, consumers end up paying more per unit volume. We further find that consumers are more …

Childlessness And Health In Middle Age And Older Adulthood: Evidence From Singapore, Christine Ho, Dahye Kim, Rohan Ray, Bussarawan Teerawichitchainan

Research Collection School Of Economics

Health and well-being in mature adulthood are important concerns given the prevalence of individuals aging without children. We exploit two new instruments for childlessness— infertility and the number of childless siblings—and condition our analyses on a rich set of covariates including childhood health and financial status, to investigate the causal relationship between childlessness and health in middle age and older adulthood. Using a nationwide dataset of 1,500 Singaporeans aged 50 and above, we show that OLS underestimates the negativeeffects of childlessness on health. We find that childlessness leads to higher likelihood of poorer self-reported health and mental distress. The results …

Bargaining Inefficiency Due To Mispricing Under Incomplete Information : Evidence From The Bilateral Oligopolistic Containership Time Charter Market, Jaeung Cha

World Maritime University Ph.D. Dissertations

A well-established body of bargaining studies theoretically demonstrates that inherent limitations in observing the counterplayer’s private information give rise to an incomplete information setting in bargaining, leading to efficiency losses associated with mispricing, costly delays, and even bargaining failures. As the shipping market, a business-to-business market in which products are generally heterogeneous and the number of both sellers and buyers is limited by high entry/exit barriers, relies on a bargaining mechanism to determine tailored transaction prices, market pricing is prone to inefficiencies associated with incomplete information. However, the relevant empirical evidence remains underexplored in both the shipping finance and bargaining …

Board Attributes, Firm Performance, And The Moderating Role Of National Culture: A Meta-Analysis, Matthew Farrell, Chris H. Willis, Nathapon Siangchokyoo, Ryan L. Klinger, Jamil Kreugel, Hami Usta, Timiry R. Tian, Ying Thaviphoke, Samuel Wilson

Management Faculty Publications

Research Question/Issue

The impact of board structures on firm performance remains a contentious governance topic with competing theoretical paradigms and inconclusive empirical support. Scholars propose that national culture could reconcile contradictory evidence; yet, argumentation is fragmented and direct tests are rare. We meta‐analyzed 513 samples across 54 countries to examine relationships between board structures (i.e., board size, board independence, and CEO duality) and firm performance. We model national culture, using Hofstede's six cultural dimensions, as moderators to test whether these relationships align with agency or stewardship theory across different cultural settings.

Research findings/insights

Findings indicate a substantial moderating role of …

Uncovering Mild Drift In Asset Prices With Intraday High-Frequency Data, Shuping Shi, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

Asset prices are commonly represented as a drift-diffusion process, wherein the drift component denotes the anticipated return of the asset within some time frame, while the diffusion component accommodates random shocks. The drift component has substantial practical significance but accurate estimation is typically challenging and has met with limited success in the existing literature except over large time spans. This paper explores a comprehensive range of drift-diffusion models that include constant, linear, trending, and bursting drift. Conditions are identified under which realized squared drift  is a reliable tool for gauging integrated squared drift when the time span Tn is large …

Assessing Ethereum’S Diversification Role With Bitcoin And Major Equity Index – A Bayesian Mixture Copula Approach, Jackie Li, Jacie Jia Liu

Research Collection School Of Economics

With the introduction of spot Ethereum ETFs, Ethereum plays an increasingly important role in the cryptocurrency market. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian modelling framework incorporating a mixture copula for co-modelling Ethereum returns with Bitcoin or FTSE 100 returns. The mixture copula is designed as a combination of the Clayton copula and its three rotations, Frank, and Gaussian copulas. It provides substantial flexibility for handling a variety of dependency structures. The Bayesian approach offers the advantage of jointly estimating both the margins and copulas and simulating future returns in a coherent procedure. Using 10 different risk or risk-return measures, …

Application Paths Of Semantic Modeling In Financial Fraud Detection And Risk Identification, Victor P. Gauthier, Daniel S. Wu

Computer Science Faculty Publications

Financial fraud and risk pose significant threats to economic stability and individual well-being. Traditional detection methods often struggle to keep pace with increasingly sophisticated fraudulent schemes. Semantic modeling, which focuses on understanding the meaning and relationships within data, offers a promising avenue for enhancing fraud detection and risk identification. This review paper explores the application paths of semantic modeling in this domain. We begin with a historical overview of fraud detection techniques, highlighting the limitations of traditional approaches. Subsequently, we delve into core themes, including knowledge graph-based fraud detection and semantic rule-based inference for risk assessment. We then compare and …