Digital Commons Network^™

Navigating Unemployment Without Unemployment Insurance: Evidence From Singapore, Kim, Lanjie Wang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This study investigates the short-term impacts of unemployment among older workers (aged 50–62) in Singapore, a setting with-out public unemployment insurance. Using monthly panel data from the Singapore Life Panel, we analyse dynamic effects onmajor life outcomes such as income, spending, health, and subjective wellbeing over 2 years post-unemployment. Our findingsreveal substantial initial earnings losses with incomplete recovery: income remains 50.7% below pre-unemployment levels after24 months. Despite this persistent income gap, total household expenditure declines by 9.8% on average over 2 years (rangingfrom 7% to 16% across months). The implied two-year marginal propensity to consume is about 0.182, smaller than …

The Effect Of Vaccine Mandates On Disease Spread: Evidence From College Covid-19 Mandates, Riley K. Acton, Wenjia Cao, Emily E. Cook, Scott A. Imberman, Michael F. Lovenheim

Research Collection School Of Economics

Nearly 700 4-year U.S. colleges mandated students receive COVID-19 vaccinations in fall 2021. Using data on college policies and county health, we estimate how mandates affect surrounding communities. Event studies from August to November 2021 show that mandates covering all colleges in a county reduced COVID-19 deaths by 5.6 per 100,000 persons, a 4.6% reduction in the U.S. total during this period. Mandates reduced COVID cases by 504 and ICU admissions by 16.2 per 100,000, though we see no statistically significant impact on hospitalizations. Impacts are larger in counties with larger college populations and low estimated ex-ante student vaccination rates.

The Unintended Consequences Of International Student Shortage: Evidence From South Korea, Chung-Yoon Choi, Syngjoo Choi, Seonghoon Kim, Jongkwan Lee

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study the role of international students in the higher education sector and the local economy by exploiting a policy reform in South Korea that restricted the admission of foreign students to local universities. By comparing the pre- and post-reform differences across universities with different pre-reform shares of international student enrollment, we show that an international student shortage resulting from this policy reform significantly worsened the financial outcomes of universities and consequently led to reduced investment in their students. We also document that a reduction in the number of international students in local areas decreased native employment, mainly in low-skilled …

Multidimensional Screening For Quality With An Application To Health Insurance, Hector Chade, Victoria Marone, Amanda Starc, Jeroen Swinkels

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We analyze a multidimensional screening model in which a principal offers a menu of quality-price pairs to a consumer with multiple dimensions of private information and a quasilinear utility function. We derive necessary conditions for optimality, and use them to provide insight into optimal exclusion, positive trade, and screening. We then recast the problem in terms of incremental quality levels and prices, the so-called demand-profile approach (DPA). Under DPA, the problem decouples across increments and can be solved one at a time. We provide novel conditions under which DPA recovers the solution to the full problem exactly or approximately, and …

Hkc05 - Household Portfolios, Corporate Leverage, And The Supply Side Of Monetary Policy, Charles A.E. Goodhart, M. Udara Peiris, Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, Xuan Wang

Oberlin College Kasper Economics and Business Working Paper Series

Corporate borrowing creates safe claims for some households and concentrates residual risk in equity for others. This portfolio heterogeneity drives a supply-side channel through which corporate leverage conditions monetary transmission. Tightening erodes equity holders’ wealth while safe-asset holders are cushioned; the resulting income effect makes aggregate labor fall more at high leverage, raising the sacrifice ratio. A static model yields a closed-form hump in leverage, with the US range on the rising side, disciplined by Survey of Consumer Finances portfolio shares. A calibrated dynamic model roughly doubles the sacrifice ratio, and US local projections agree in sign, shape, and timing.

Bearcat Advantage: Year Two Evaluation Report, Michelle Miller-Adams, Kyle Huisman, Bridget Timmeney, Kevin Hollenbeck

Reports

No abstract provided.

Close To Home? Five Key Facts About Child Care Customer And Worker Commutes, Gabrielle Pepin, Jonathan Borowsky, Elizabeth E. Davis, Aaron Sojourner

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Parents often cite location and convenience as important factors in choosing a child care provider. We use data on individual mobility from GPS in cell phones to study commutes to each licensed early childhood care and education (ECE) provider in 14 states separately for center customers, center workers, and customers of home-based child care providers. We document five key facts about ECE customer and worker commutes. One, center customers and workers commute farther than home-based customers to ECE providers. Two, substantial shares of customers and workers commute 10+ miles to their ECE provider. Three, commute distances to ECE providers vary …

Expanding The Cognitive Attentional Standards Platform Through Artificial Influence Assessment (Aia): Rationale, Development, And Measurement Design, Delante Clark

Graduate Scholarship and Creative Works

Artificial intelligence is increasingly shaping how individuals access information, make decisions, and interact with digital environments. The Cognitive Attentional Standards Platform (C.A.S.) was developed to assess attention related harms, cognitive safety, digital autonomy, and platform influence across digital systems (Clark, 2026). However, the growth of generative AI, conversational agents, and algorithmic decision support technologies has introduced new forms of influence that may not be fully captured by existing assessment domains. This paper proposes the Artificial Influence Assessment (AIA) as an expansion of the C.A.S. framework designed to measure AI mediated influence on cognition, behavior, autonomy, and information processing. Drawing on …

Governing Algorithmic Attention: Attention Safeguard Models And The Cognitive Attentional Standard As System Level Interventions In Human Computer Interaction, Behavioral Economics, And Artificial Intelligence, Delante Clark

Graduate Scholarship and Creative Works

Algorithmic recommendation systems and interface designs shape attention by combining visually salient cues with uncertain reward timing and low friction interaction. These conditions can sustain anticipatory checking, extend time on task, and reduce natural disengagement points through patterns such as infinite scrolling and autoplay. This paper synthesizes research across neuroscience, human computer interaction, behavioral economics, and artificial intelligence to argue that attention capture is a predictable outcome of incentive driven design rather than an individual failure of self regulation. It advances the Attention Safeguard Models and the Cognitive Attentional Standard as system level interventions that regulate exposure conditions, pacing, and …

Value-Chain Factors Influencing Production Volume And Gross Margin: Evidence From A Thai Dairy Processing Firm, Jiranij Jareonsawat, Aqeel Raza, Kittisak Ajariyakhajorn, Davids Makararpong, Henk Hogeveen, Chainarong Paoin, Nampueng Mesprasat, Chaidate Inchaisri

The Thai Journal of Veterinary Medicine

The dairy industry is vital for food security and economic stability, particularly in developing markets such as Thailand. Understanding factors related to production volume and gross margin in dairy processing firms can help inform performance and profitability considerations. Based on Porter’s value chain framework and a perception-based survey approach, this study used document reviews, in-depth interviews with 14 key informants, and an employee perception survey (n = 21) covering 74 relevant factors. Results indicated significant differences across ten activity categories for both production volume (Χ2 = 53.59, df = 9, P < 0.001) and gross margin (Χ2 = 26.89, df = 9, P < 0.001). For production volume, research and development (3.96 ± 0.66), human resources management (3.93 ± 0.63), and external factors (3.82 ± 0.82) had the highest mean perceived importance scores. For gross margin, external factors recorded the highest mean score (3.96 ± 0.81). At the factor level, the Thai government-regulated raw milk price was classified as the most important factor associated with production volume, while fuel prices were the most important factor related to gross margin. Both factors had the highest proportion of “High” and “Very High” responses (90.5%). These findings highlight the importance of aligning internal activities with external conditions within an institutional and policy context. This study provides insights into how institutional and policy constraints shape the way firm-level activities and external conditions are perceived and prioritized, and how these perceptions relate to performance in dairy processing firms in Thailand.

Accounting And Economic System Classification: An Adverse Effect Of The Misconceptualization Of Capital, Henry Zeno Chalu

Business Management Review

This paper discusses the influence of accounting on economic system classification. Particularly, it traces how a misconception of the accounting term ‘capital’ led to a misleading characterization of capitalism and socialism as inherently oppositional economic systems. This misunderstanding stems from neglect of the two complementary modes of thought on which accounting as a science rests: reasoning, which is the conceptual, idealistic dimension, and proving, which is the technical, physicalist dimension. Both modes are integral to the construction of most of the accounting terms used in economics. If an accounting conceptualization had been followed, capitalism and socialism would not …

Three Essays On Political Economy And International Trade, Shuo Zhang

Dissertations - ALL

This dissertation is composed of three papers that explore how institutions, globalization, and trade shocks affect individuals' political preferences and firms' behavior. The first paper studies how mass protest events drive political change among citizens. I exploit the 2019 Anti-Extradition Law Amendment Bill Movement (ANTI-ELAB protest) in Hong Kong and its impact on the subsequent 2019 Hong Kong District Council Election. Taking advantage of a granular dataset of organized events during the protest, I exploit spatial variation in protest intensity, as measured by the number of events, across Constituency Areas. Empirical results show that in Constituency Areas with higher protest …

Essays On Urban Economic Geography In Developing Countries, Taylor Lathrop

Dissertations - ALL

This dissertation contains two papers on urban economic geography in a developing country context. In the first, I identify and quantify local spillovers between firms of heterogeneous ownership type using a rich dataset of Indonesian manufacturing firms with granular location information. Within local clusters of manufacturing employment, I find an elasticity of domestic firm productivity with respect to the average quality of domestic neighbors of 0.025, and an elasticity of domestic firm productivity with respect to the average quality of foreign neighbors of 0.002. For foreign-owned firms, I find little evidence of productivity spillovers from neighbors of either ownership type. …

Predicting Thoroughbred Yearling Auction Prices With Machine Learning: Evidence From The Keeneland September Sale, Yanchao Yang, John Clarke, Tapaan Madal '26, Thinh Nguyen '26, Trung Pham '25

Business Analytics Faculty Publications

We apply machine learning methods to predict Thoroughbred yearling auction prices at the Keeneland September Sale (2020–2024). Our sample includes 5,788 yearling prices with pedigree data. We use both linear and tree-based models to predict log prices. We use cross-validation to tune model hyperparameters and select Ridge regression (α = 1.451) as the primary model for interpretation given its stability and interpretability. The Ridge regression explains approximately 54% of out-of-sample variation (R2≈ 0.5403). Sire and Dam Reputation emerge as the dominant predictors. Results provide pricing benchmarks and show how reputation and session structure shape Thoroughbred yearling auction prices.

Passed Through Or Pushed Back? Exchange Rate Effects On Manufacturing Trade Prices In Indonesia And The Asean Plus Three, Fatikha Rizky Kurnia, Miguel Angel Esquivias, Wee-Yeap Lau, Unggul Heriqbaldi

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study analyzes the Exchange Rate Pass-Through (ERPT) on export and import prices in Indonesia’s manufacturing trade with ASEAN Plus-three countries (China, Japan, and South Korea) using monthly data from 2016 to 2022. Employing the Nonlinear (NARDL) models, we examine the degree and asymmetry of ERPT across five key manufacturing sectors for each partner. The NARDL model confirms asymmetric price responses to currency appreciation and depreciation in several sectors. The findings reveal significant sectoral and country-specific variations. Some export sectors experience complete pass-through in the short term but shift to negative complete passthrough in the long run. Meanwhile, imports from …

Financial Stability Versus Bank Lending Channel Transmission: The Impact Of Bank Competition And Concentration In Indonesia, Alif Ihsan A Fahta, Chaikal Nuryakin

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

Using financial data from 47 publicly listed banks in Indonesia from 2013Q4 to 2023Q3, this study employs a new approach by utilizing ΔCoVaR as a proxy for financial stability to examine how changes in bank competition in bank competition and banking industry concentration affects financial stability and the effectiveness of bank lending channel transmission. We find that, on one hand, an increase in market power (decreased bank competition) and an increase in banking industry concentration reduce financial stability. On the other hand, an increase in banking industry concentration enhances the effectiveness of the bank lending channel transmission by increasing the …

Does Green Electricity Mitigate Carbon Emission Externalities? Industry-Specific Effects On Firm Profitability, Operational Efficiency, Valuation, And Market Risk In Taiwan Listed Companies, Mutiara Eka Puspita, Wei Hwa Pan, Bon Long Hsia, Huynh Phu Tan

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

his study explores the relationship between carbon emissions and firm financial performance across industries and how green electricity adoption moderates this effect. Using 9,925 firm-year observations from the Taiwan Economic Journal, we estimate panel regressions and compare Fixed Effects robust and Driscoll-Kraay (1998) standard errors to ensure robustness. Two-way and three-way interaction models reveal a green electricity paradox: biotech firms benefit, while financial and high-tech sectors decline. These findings highlight the need for sector-specific ESG investment models and tailored policy support to ensure an equitable green transition. The study contributes by integrating environmental-financial dynamics with industry heterogeneity in emerging markets

Hierarchical Bayesian Evidence On Cbdc Adoption: The Case Of Indonesia’S Digital Rupiah, Akbar Syahid Rabbani, Jongsu Lee

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study analyzed accessibility, privacy, transferability, and interest rates related to the adoption of Digital Rupiah, Indonesia’s Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), among rural and urban consumers. Findings from a hierarchical Bayesian model show that mobile applications are the main acquisition channel, and enhanced transferability with bank accounts and electronic money boosts consumer utility. However, there are concerns about fully anonymous transactions, differentiated by socio-demographic profiles (age, income, education, and knowledge). Scenario analysis suggests the potential CBDC adoption rate in Indonesia could range from 38% to 55%, influenced by privacy levels and the central bank’s interest rates.

Millennials Will Pay The Price: Demographic Imbalance And Reform Inertia In Canada’S And Spain’S Pension Systems, Javier E. Burgos Oliva

Journal of New Finance

This paper examines how demographic imbalance and policy inertia undermine intergenerational equity in Canada’s partially funded and Spain’s pay-as-you-go pension systems. Despite structural differences, both nations transfer financial risks to Millennials and Gen Z due to aging populations, low fertility, and political resistance to reform. Using a comparative political economy framework and a stylized hyperbolic discounting model, the study shows institutional design alone cannot prevent unsustainability when incentives favor short-term gains. Policy recommendations include automatic adjustment mechanisms, independent fiscal councils, and private pension incentives.

The Other Side Of Peruvian Private Pension System, Paolo Daniel Jara

Journal of New Finance

Between 2020 and 2025, Peru's Congress authorized eight extraordinary withdrawal rounds from the Private Pension System (SPP), liquidating USD 38 billion. This paper argues that the trajectory is the empirical convergence of two analytically distinct failures. The first, from below, reflects the mismatch between the system's behavioral assumptions and a heterogeneous, predominantly informal workforce. The second, from above, reflects short-cycle electoral incentives, institutional asymmetry between Congress and the regulator, and slippery-slope dynamics. The paper proposes a reform combining free disposal of pension funds with individual fiscal responsibility, mediated by a binding waiver of the state-funded solidarity pension.

[Review Of] The Divine Economy: How Religions Compete For Wealth, Power And People, Steven Pfaff

Sociology Faculty Articles and Research

A review of Paul Seabright's The Divine Economy: How Religions Compete for Wealth, Power, and People.

The Road To Gerontocracy, Juan David Bohorquez Pacateque, Alonso Morales Sánchez Mejorada, Paul Alexander Villegas Muñoz

Journal of New Finance

The purpose of this article is to develop a reform proposal for current pension systems based on a robust political economy approach. The research is documentary, conducting critical analysis of texts and evidence collection from various pension schemes from a public choice perspective to elaborate a comparative institutional analysis. Pension schemes, being influenced by political processes, are susceptible to adopting institutions that are inefficient, so a politically and economically robust reform is proposed. In conclusion, taking into account that pension systems can be co-opted by the political process, it is not sufficient to propose financially sustainable schemes but also ones …

Retirement At Risk: The Political Economy Of Public Pension Governance, Allen Mendenhall, Dan Sutter

Journal of New Finance

State public pension systems manage over $6 trillion in assets while facing approximately $1.3 trillion in unfunded liabilities, raising fundamental questions about governance effectiveness and fiduciary accountability. This Article examines these challenges through the analytical framework of governance, applying insights from public choice, principal-agent models, and corporate governance to argue that details in implementation significantly impact outcomes.  We offer Ohio’s State Teachers Retirement System (STRS) as a case study. Recent governance reforms in Ohio—including legislative restructuring of the STRS board and enactment of fiduciary standards legislation modeled on the American Legislative Exchange Council’s framework—suggest the potential for earlier governance problems. …

Analyzing Retirement Systems Through A Triad Framework: Lessons For U.S. Reform, Romina Boccia, Ivane Nachkebia

Journal of New Finance

As U.S. Social Security approaches insolvency, this paper analyzes the program’s challenges through a political economy lens and makes two new contributions. First, it introduces a normative triad framework for evaluating retirement systems based on individual autonomy, fiscal sustainability, and poverty alleviation. Second, it applies this framework to five advanced economies—Canada, Germany, New Zealand, Sweden, and the U.S.—to identify institutional features associated with differences in outcomes. Deriving implications for U.S. reform, we propose four recommendations: transition Social Security to a flat-benefit system, slow benefit growth, adopt automatic stabilizers, and expand flexible savings options.

Education For Sustainable Economic Development – Insights From Brazil, Ozéias Rodrigues Da Rocha

Doctoral

Purpose: This doctoral thesis examines the impact of Education for Economic Sustainable Development (ESD) in the municipality of Turmalina-MG, Brazil, with a focus on how primary education contributes to sustainable economic growth, environmental sustainability, and social equity. The research is guided by the central question: What is the impact of Education for Economic Sustainable Development (ESD)? The study also evaluates the extent to which local educational initiatives align with specific Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 4 (Quality Education) and SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth).

Methodology: Data were collected from one dominant primary school in Turmalina-MG through semi-structured …

The Interplay Between Deficit Spending And Financial Instability: An Examination Of Fiscal And Monetary Policy Interactions, Heidie Jean George

Doctoral Dissertations and Projects

This study investigates the impact of fiscal and monetary policy on financial stability and fragility, focusing on how government spending and deficits contribute to the economic and financial system. Drawing on Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis (FIH) and Financial Fragility Hypothesis (FFH), the research examines the dynamic relationship between fiscal policy, financial stability, and economic stability. The study focuses on understanding how government spending and deficits affect the economic and financial system in context of private and public debt and policy interactions and the role of system risk factors. The study uses Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Vector Autoregression (VAR), Impulse Response …

Manufactured Homes In The Mountain West, 2025, Yiselle Olivas Ruiz, Dre Boyd-Weatherly, Taylor Volk, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr.

Housing & Real Estate

This fact sheet presents 2025 data on manufactured homes in the five Mountain West states of Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. The Construction Coverage report, “U.S. States Investing Most in Manufactured Homes,” based on analysis from the U.S Census Bureau and Zillow’s Home Value Index, includes data on all fifty states. This fact sheet focuses on the number of manufactured homes, site-built home permits, and the average price of manufactured homes in the Mountain West.

Innovation Hubs In Mountain West Cities, 2025, Cason Noll, Sean Curry, Olivia K. Cheche, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr.

Economic Development & Workforce

This fact sheet presents data on 20 innovation-dense Mountain West cities across Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. The CommercialCafe report, “Santa Clara, Berkeley & Tempe Lead Among Western Innovation Hubs,”  uses 15 indicators to rank 63 western cities for innovation hub activity across three categories: employment and talent, education, and business activity.

Parental Gender Bias In Youth Employment Standards: Evidence From Upper Egypt, Mahmoud Saeed

Theses and Dissertations

Youth unemployment remains a critical challenge in Egypt, with female labor force participation among the lowest globally. While structural factors such as limited job creation and public sector contraction are well-documented, the role of family-level decision-making in constraining women's labor market entry has received limited quantitative attention. This thesis examines parental gender bias in employment standards in Upper Egypt, investigating whether and how parents impose systematically different job requirements for daughters compared to sons. Using primary survey data from 17,284 unemployed youth aged 18-35 across six governorates, paired with responses from their parents, this study analyzes parental preferences across six …

Michigan's Automotive Workforce Transition, Erik Vasilauskas, Michael Horrigan

Upjohn Institute Technical Reports

This report examines how changes in automobile production, specifically the shift from internal-combustion-engine (ICE) vehicles toward hybrids and battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), are likely to affect employment in Michigan’s automotive manufacturing and distribution system over the next decade. The goal is to quantify how many jobs in Michigan depend on the automotive supply chain today, how that employment has evolved since the early 2000s, and how it may change through 2030 under alternative production-and-demand scenarios. The results are intended to inform the workforce planning and community transition strategies of the Michigan Department of Labor and Economic Opportunity’s Community and Worker Economic …