Digital Commons Network^™

Quantile-Optimal Policy Learning Under Unmeasured Confounding, Zhongren Chen, Siyu Chen, Zhengling Qi, Xiaohong Chen, Zhuoran Yang

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We study quantile-optimal policy learning where the goal is to find a policy whose reward distribution has the largest α-quantile for some α P p0, 1q. We focus on the offline setting whose generating process involves unobserved confounders. Such a problem suffers from three main challenges: (i) nonlinearity of the quantile objective as a functional of the reward distribution, (ii) unobserved confounding issue, and (iii) insufficient coverage of the offline dataset. To address these challenges, we propose a suite of causal-assisted policy learning methods that provably enjoy strong theoretical guarantees under mild conditions. In particular, to address (i) and (ii), …

Causal Effects Of Schooling On Memory At Older Ages In Six Low-And-Middle-Income Countries: Nonparametric Evidence With Harmonized Datasets, Vikesh Amin, Jere R. Behrman, Jason M. Fletcher, Carlos A. Flores, Alfonso Flores-Lagunes, Iliana Kohler, Hans-Peter Kohler, Shana D. Stites

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Higher schooling attainment is associated with better cognitive function at older ages, but it remains unclear whether the relationship is causal. We estimate causal effects of schooling on performances on the Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer’s Disease (CERAD) word-recall (memory) test at older ages in China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Russia, and South Africa. We used harmonized data (n=30,896) on older adults (≥50 years) from the World Health Organization Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health. We applied an established nonparametric partialidentification approach that bounds causal effects of increasing schooling attainment at different parts of the schooling distributions under …

Reform Vs Revolution: Revisiting Original Institutionalist’S Axiology, Jacob Powell

Working Papers

No abstract provided.

Hiring Decisions Under Productivity Uncertainty: Risk Preferences And Inaccurate Statistical Discrimination In Nhl Entry Drafts, Chengyuan Hua, Brad Humphreys

Economics Faculty Working Papers Series

This paper analyzes firm hiring decisions under uncertainty about worker productivity. We exploit an exogenous September 15 cutoff date in the National Hockey League entry draft to estimate a sharp RDD and find evidence of risk aversion by teams when drafting players. Specifically, teams appear risk averse in early draft rounds, but risk neutral in later rounds, supporting model predictions by a prior study. Triple-differences results show inaccurate relative-age-based statistical discrimination in the draft, providing implications for team drafting strategies. We find suggestive evidence that experience drives this discrimination, and positive correlation be- tween accuracy of statistical discrimination and team …

An Exploratory Study Of Household Alcohol Consumption From The Us Bureau Of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Survey With A Focus On Market Conditions And Regulatory Structures, Mayya Makarycheva

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Alcohol consumption and use is not just a harmful behavior or a potential recreational activity, but it also may form a way of self-identification.

Each type of beverage apparently has their own profile of dedicated drinkers. Those drinkers are also apparently loyal to the location of purchase. However, one may also consider whether consumption in one location is a predictor of consumption in the other location. This distinct tendency highlights the intricacy of consumption patterns, as on-premise and off-premise consumption simultaneously serve as complements and substitutes in the long run in terms of both location and type of beverage.

The …

Blood And Mettle: The Effects Of Civil Unrest On Economic Mobility, Nathan D. Parks

Honors Projects

Civil unrest is a global phenomenon that often emerges through a combination of grievances and opportunity sparking change. Civil unrest is often used as a tool by the populace to initiate political, societal, or economic transformation. Economic mobility or the belief in it is a key contributor to mitigating individuals’ level of grievances. This paper uses lagged panel analysis to investigate the question of how civil unrest affects economic mobility beyond the time of unrest. Civil unrest is associated with changes in economic mobility, varying between positive and negative associations based on the type of unrest. Analysis was conducted using …

Non-Tariff Measures On Indonesian Tea Products: Do Sps And Tbt Impede Or Promote The Export?, Fikri Aldi Dwi Putro, Widyastutik Widyastutik, Nia Kurniawati Hidayat

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Previous studies highlight the heterogeneous effects of Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs) on international trade. This study identifies the enforcement of NTMs and examines the effects on the export performance of Indonesian tea products. This study employed an inventory (coverage ratio) approach and panel regression with the Poisson-Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) method. The results indicate that 31 out of 36 analyzed destination countries enforce NTMs, with Vietnam imposing the most prevalent ones. Furthermore, SPS measures substantially promote the export of Indonesian tea products, whereas TBT measures show no significant effect. Therefore, the government needs to provide incentives and harmonize the national Voluntary …

Horses, Serfs, Slaves, And Transitions Debates., Thomas E. Lambert

Faculty and Staff Scholarship

This research note/paper examines several factors that have been mentioned and debated as determinants of how Britain moves from feudalism to mercantilism and then to capitalism by way of agricultural and industrial innovations and also how it arrives at the cusp of the industrial revolution. Of special interest are somewhat recent conjectures of macroeconomic data, investment estimates, and data on horses, serfs, and slaves of previous centuries that perhaps can better contribute to and add some clarification to the debates over the transition from feudalism to capitalism and the transition from an early form a capitalism or mercantilism to the …

Preferences Or Confounders? Persistent Gender Gap In Competition Across Four Continents, Natalia I. Valdez-Gonzalez, Adriana Gaviria, Antonio M. Espin

ESI Working Papers

The gender gap in willingness to compete is thought to underlie enduring inequalities in education, career choice, and labor market outcomes. Yet it remains unclear whether the gap reflects true preference differences or results from confounding factors such as task stereotypes, overconfidence, or risk aversion. We test gender differences in competition entry across eight pre-registered studies in seven countries spanning four continents (Dominican Republic, Ivory Coast, El Salvador, Madagascar, Spain, The Philippines, and Uruguay; total n = 1,833), using an experimental design that systematically minimizes these confounds: (i) based on a non-male-stereotyped task (the Reading the Mind in the Eyes …

Do Government Benefit Programs Reduce Child Labor?: Causal Evidence From The Midday Meal Scheme In India, Vardaan Chawla, Tomoki Fujii, Arpita Khanna, Ray Rohan

Research Collection School Of Economics

This study evaluates the impact of the midday meal program in India on the prevalence of child labor for upper primary school going children. The staggered implementation of the largest school feeding program in the world across states provides exogenous variation in exposure. Using the nationally representative National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) data, we find that exposure to the program reduced prevalence of child labor by 47 percent relative to children in never-treated states, with no significant difference in impact between boys and girls. The effects were primarily driven by a decline in household labor supply, especially performance of household …

Menstrual Math: The Price Of Bleeding, Gabrielle Langston

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This project examines the landscape of menstrual equity in the United States through a data storytelling lens, focusing on state-level policies regarding taxation and access to menstrual products. The analysis explores which states impose sales tax on menstrual products, if state schools provide free menstrual products, and which states ensure access for incarcerated individuals using publicly available datasets from advocacy groups. Additionally, there is an investigation into potential correlations between the gender wage gap and states that tax menstrual products, shedding light on economic and policy disparities.

Through its data visualizations, this project aims to provide a clear, although not …

From Neural Networks To Large Language Models: Innovations In Financial Ai, Mathematical Reasoning, And Structured Data Representation, Junyi Ye

Dissertations

This dissertation explores the evolution and application of artificial intelligence techniques across three critical domains: financial modeling, mathematical reasoning, and structured data analysis. The dissertation presents seven research projects that chart a progression from specialized neural architectures to sophisticated large language models (LLMs), contributing novel methodologies and frameworks at each stage.

In the financial domain, the research first introduces TS-Mixer, a MLP-based architecture for time-series forecasting that captures both feature relationships and temporal dependencies through a simple yet effective design, outperforming more complex models in S&P500 index prediction. The dissertation then presents DySTAGE, a dynamic graph representation learning framework that …

South Carolina And The Blue Ridge Rail Road, 1852 To 1873: Dreams Of Linking The South And West, Steve E. Gibson

Doctoral Dissertations and Projects

While the 1850s were productive and railroading did innovate with the initial adoption of steel, the embrace of the telegraph, the use of coal as a fuel, and the opening of generally long railroads, particularly in South Carolina, the railroads themselves generally remained conservative (almost timid) in their business models and strategic thinking. This was especially true in the South. Northern railroads recognized the need to connect major cities, connect seaports with crop productive hinterlands, and generally understood that railroad mobility, mixed economic development, and prosperity were intertwined and mutually reinforcing with the prosperity of both the railroad and the …

The Effects Of Tulsa Remote On Inducing Moves To Tulsa: Estimates And Implications, Timothy J. Bartik

Upjohn Institute Technical Reports

Tulsa Remote is one of the largest of over 100 remote worker attraction programs in the United States. Since its beginning in 2018, the program has provided generous incentives ($10,000 for moving to Tulsa and staying one year), along with accompanying networking services and incentives to encourage entrepreneurship, to over 3,000 Tulsa Remote member households, selected out of tens of thousands of applicants. Tulsa Remote’s purpose is to promote economic development in Tulsa. Tulsa Remote members spend more locally and generate fiscal benefits, as well as start up businesses and help make Tulsa more attractive for high-tech job growth. These …

Goodness Of Fit Tests In Spatial Autoregressive Stochastic Frontier Models, Ming-Yu Deng, Yue Fu, Levent Kutlu, Minxian Wang

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

This article mainly considers goodness of fit tests for the inefficiency in spatial autoregressive stochastic frontier (SARSF) models by utilizing the characteristic function of the centralized composite error term. As a prerequisite of the tests, we propose easy-to-compute moment estimators for distributional parameters of such a term, showing the consistency based on spatial near-epoch dependent properties. Meanwhile, the asymptotic distribution of the estimators is derived by generalizing the central limit theorem (CLT) in Kelejian and Prucha (Citation2001) from linear-quadratic forms to polynomial-trigonometric forms. Then, the cosine and sine tests, being simple to implement in SARSF analysis, are established …

Who Owns The Wind: The Absence Of Community Wind Farms In California, Sky Berry-Weiss

Master's Projects and Capstones

Community ownership structures for wind farms have been around for decades, particularly in European countries, due to high socioeconomic benefits. Given these significant benefits, one might expect community wind to thrive in the United States—especially in a state like California, which prides itself on progressive climate policy and renewable energy leadership. Yet utility-scale community wind remains largely absent from research on California’s energy system, raising questions about its existence in the state. To pinpoint how many utility-scale community owned wind farms are in California, this study surveys every operational wind turbine in the state. After classifying each wind farm by …

The Long-Term Effect Of Universities On Local Technology, Dafina Rizvanolli

Master's Theses

This paper studies the long-term effects of universities on local economic complexity, contributing to new evidence on how higher education institutions shape local productive capabilities over time. While extensive research documents universities’ positive impact on development, fundamental questions remain about the mechanisms through which they operate. Our study employs the Economic Complexity Index (ECI), a measure that captures the diversity and ubiquity of regional economic structures, to provide novel insights into universities’ influence on local economies. Building on Andrews (2023), we exploit historical natural experiments in university site selection during the 19^th and 20^th centuries in the U.S. …

Two-Way Random Effects Model With Serial Correlation, Badi H. Baltagi, Georges Bresson, Jean-Michel Etienne

Center for Policy Research

This paper derives a feasible GLS estimator for a two-way error component model with serial correlation on both the time effects as well as the remainder disturbances. This estimator is based on two methods, one proposed by De Porres and Krishnakumar (2013) for deriving the spectral decomposition of a general error component structure and the other based on an inversion trick for the variance-covariance matrix of this model suggested by Skoglund and Karlsson (2001). While the last paper used maximum likelihood methods under the normality assumption, we use method of moments estimators following Baltagi and Li (1991) for the one-way …

The Hidden Logic Behind Migration And Success, Elsa Russom

Master's Projects and Capstones

This research paper explores the hidden drivers of financial success among Eritrean migrants navigating uncertainty, displacement, and limited institutional access. Drawing on original survey data collected from diaspora communities across East African host countries, I apply a mixed-methods framework combining ordinal and binary logistic regression, random forest classification, bootstrapping, and Bayesian causal mediation; to identify the structural and cultural variables most predictive of financial stability. The findings reveal that participation in Ekub, a traditional rotating savings association, and engagement in communal support systems are the strongest predictors of financial success, outperforming conventional factors such as age, education, or employment status. …

Macroeconomics Textbook For Kingsborough Students, Dorina Tila

Open Educational Resources

Textbook customized for Kingsborough students. It was published in May 2025. You can access it through pressbook as well.

https://pressbooks.cuny.edu/macroeconomicsbronxkcc/

Accountability And Efficiency: Compiled Case Studies On Economic Development, Spending, And Global Markets, Jacob W. Grimsley

Honors Theses

This is a compilation of cases worked throughout the course of one year. These cases were created and assigned for an accountancy course focused on research and writing. The cases focus on accounting related topics, while also pertaining to political happenings as well as general economic topics.

Case 02 was completed in collaboration with other honors students, and these students are indicated on the page preceding this case.

Cases 05 and 06 pertain to a semester-long project focused on the development of a Mississippi based business. This case was also completed with the help of other students, as indicated on …

From Fraud To Future: Accountancy Case Studies On Financial Illusions, Policy Failures, And The Economic Renaissance Of Mississippi’S Broadband Initiative, Hayden Brennan Adams

Honors Theses

This Honors Practicum is a compilation of case studies completed under the supervision of Dr. Victoria Dickenson across two semesters of the course Accountancy 420 — Independent Study. The first semester (Fall 2023) of case studies involved both individual and group case studies examining various geopolitical implications of contemporary accounting, as well as the surge in environmental, social, and governance (ESG) regulations affecting financial reporting. The second semester (Spring 2024) was mostly centered around a collaborative Mississippi economic development proposal project conducted by four other students and myself. In our project, we construct a business plan for a start-up broadband …

Asymmetric Recovery: Understanding The Differences In Commercial And Residential Recovery Patterns Following The 2008 Financial Crisis, Avery J. Flynn

Honors Theses

The 2008 financial crisis revealed differences in economic recovery patterns between businesses and households. This study analyzes the asymmetry in loan delinquency rates between commercial and residential sectors, with data showing commercial rates peaked at 8.51% in 2010 while residential rates reached 10.88%, followed by significantly different recovery trajectories.

The research investigates how differing legal protections created varying incentives to cut costs. Through analyzing Federal Reserve data, Census Bureau surveys, and expenditure records, this study found the commercial sector recovered 64% within three years of its peak, compared to only 17% for the residential sector.

During the recession, businesses reduced …

The Ethics Of Insider Trading, Miles Morgan

Global Tides

In business ethics, insider trading has gone untouched by scholars, as the consensus is that insider trading is morally indefensible, however, questions have emerged regarding the moral responsibility of insiders. This paper engages with Analyzing Insider Trading from the Perspectives of Utilitarian Ethics and Rights Theory by Robert McGee to evaluate the relationship between applied ethics and insider trading. A satisfactory anti-insider trading account must be able to economically or philosophically explain why insider trading is morally wrong. The assumption that this is impossible may be due to a misunderstanding of how we decide what morality is or how economic …

Essays On Macroeconomic Frictions And Policy, Siyu Chen

Arts & Sciences Graduate Student Theses and Dissertations

Information, Production Networks and Optimal Taxation: This paper studies optimal taxation in an economy with information frictions and a production network across industries. I show that when all industries share the same information structure, production efficiency holds and optimal policy features no taxes on intermediate goods. Deviating from this benchmark, I characterize the optimal policy when information structure is heterogeneous across industries: The government optimally imposes higher revenue taxes on industries during economic downturns if: (i) these industries exhibit greater information rigidity, (ii) their downstream industries display less information rigidity, and (iii) their input goods are also utilized by less …

The Impact Of Insufficient Sleep On The Serial Reproduction Of Information, David L. Dickinson, Sean P. A. Drummond

ESI Publications

Story retelling is an important form of communication, cultural practice, and message transmission. Insufficient sleep is known to affect relevant cognitive skill areas necessary for story retelling or transmission fidelity. We conducted a preregistered randomized cross-over study on n = 155 young adults with exogenously assigned nightly sleep levels experienced in their at-home environments. A serial story reproduction task was administered online, and chains of up to three retells of a given story involved varied numbers of sleep restricted (SR) versus well-rested (WR) retellers. While story content decayed with each retell, group-level analysis showed that additional SR retellers in a …

Public And Private Police And Their Impact On Crime: Evidence From American Universities, Cruz K. Marquis

Honors Capstones

This study quantitatively assesses the effect of fully deputized private police (FDPP) on nine measures of crime on 770 American university campuses over thirteen years. Building on the analysis of FDPP found in Stringham (2015), this study offers a public choice analysis of the incentives resulting from private ownership, positing that officers serving in such systems face systemically different incentives than their public counterparts, leading to a more vigilant and consumer-focused security posture. This increases the likelihood that criminals will be apprehended, which thereby reduces the expected utility of criminality, leading to fewer such instances. By building a unique dataset …

Calculations, Regression Tables And Graphs, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

 This collection includes:

• Handwritten notes titled "Competition within a common currency area" (1/92)

• Graph titled "Estimated BOP/(Exp+Imp): Germany and Japan" annotated "TSP File: XROECD1" (1/12/92)

• Handwritten notes on competition equations

• Computer printout titled "LS // Dependent Variable is LNPIUKS" with notes and graph (1/7/92)

• Chart titled "CHART Q MEASURES OF RELATIVE COMPETITIVE POSITION" with annotations (1987)

• Graph titled "BOP in $, rel to (realexp+realimp)/2, for Japan and US (TSP: xroecd)"

• Computer printout titled "LS // Dependent Variable is LNPIGUS" for Germany/US with notes and graph (4/1/91)

• Computer printout titled "Residual Plot" (1979)

• Document titled "COMPETITION AND EXCHANGE RATES: THEORY AND …

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Gene X Environment Interactions: Polygenic Scores And The Impact Of A Early Childhood Intervention In Colombia, Orazio Attanasio, Gabriella Conti, Pamela Jervis, Costas Meghir, Aysu Okbay

Discussion Papers

We evaluate impacts heterogeneity of an Early Childhood Intervention, with respect to the Educational Attainment Polygenic Score (EA4 PGS) constructed from DNA data based on GWAS weights from a European population. We find that the EA4 PGS is predictive of several measures of child development, mother’s IQ and, to some extent, educational attainment. We also show that the impacts of the intervention are significantly greater in children with low PGS, to the point that the intervention eliminates the initial genetic disadvantage. Lastly, we find that children with high PGS attract more parental stimulation; however, the latter increases more strongly in …

The Struggles For Equality And Democracy In Modern China: Which Was More Influential?, Angelina K. Lambros

Publications and Research

This paper analyzes the struggles for democracy and equality in modern China, from the fall of the Qing Dynasty to the Tiananmen Square movement. It considers which struggle was more influential, evaluating the recurring theme of a fight for democracy in China since the New Culture Movement, and a quest for social and economic equality that Mao and the Chinese Communist Party committed themselves to. Ultimately, the paper concludes that the struggle for democratic norms and institutions was always present among the Chinese people, but it did not succeed in pushing the government or the Party to adopt political reforms. …