Digital Commons Network^™

The Rising Returns To R&D: Ideas Are Not Getting Harder To Find, Yoshiki Ando, James Bessen, Xiupeng Wang

Research Collection School Of Economics

R&D has grown robustly, yet aggregate productivity growth has stagnated. Is this because “ideas are getting harder to find”? Using microdata from the US Census Bureau this paper estimates R&D effectiveness in the manufacturing sector from 1976 to 2018. We find that the marginal effect of R&D on output and the gross marginal returns to R&D have risen sharply. But rivals’ R&D has also gotten more effective, raising expected obsolescence. But firm productivity growth rises with growth in the R&D stock. Higher obsolescence slows the accumulation of R&D capital, reducing the contribution to productivity growth and shortening innovation lives.

High Frequency Factor Analysis With Partially Observable Factors, Dachuan Chen, Wenqi Lu, Siyu Xie

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper considers a novel factor structure – Partially Observable Factor Model – where both observable factors and latent factors exist in the model simultaneously. Such factor structure can make sure both interpretability and goodness-of-fit at the same time. Necessary estimation methodologies for this partially observable factor model are developed in this paper for the high frequency data. The proposed estimation methodology is robust to jumps, microstructure noise and asynchronous observation times simultaneously.When the observable factors are exogenous, we provide the estimation theory for the integrated eigenvalues of the residual covariance matrix, which including the bias-corrected estimator, central limit theorem …

The Medical Check Up Result Data Collection System Function To Determine The Health Condition Of Workers At Pt. Pertamina Region Iii, Shonia Fitriananda, Mohammad Ridha

Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis Terapan

Activities carried out at PT. Pertamina (Persero) is very diverse. One of the activities is Medical Check Up under the auspices of Pertamedika, which is a health facility in PT. Pertamina (Persero) which is intended for workers to be checked for health every year with physical examination in the form of heart examination, blood tests, eye tests, and ultrasonography (USG). With the activities, it is inseparable from direct communication between the administration and workers to confirm each other about the needs and desires of workers who can be helped by the medical administration. The preparation of this academic paper task …

Var Analysis: Association Between Non-Performing Loan, Housing Price, Economic Indicators, And Mortgage, Yulifar Amin Gultom, Masruri Muchtar, Pardomuan Robinson Sihombing

Jurnal Akuntansi dan Keuangan Indonesia

Background: The economic crisis from 2008 to 2009 was due to the collapse of the housing price bubble, which increased the default rate or non-performing loans of mortgages. Much research on non-performing loans compared to property price and economic indicators has been done in other countries, but not in Indonesia. This research is modified to suit the housing market in Indonesia, aiming to investigate causality relationships between non-performing loans, residential property price index, gross domestic product, mortgages, and credit interest rates. It also analyzes the impulse response function and variance decomposition of each variable, focusing on non-performing loans to show …

Trump's Trade Offensive And The Gulf Response: Navigating A New Era Of Us-Middle East Economic Relation, Maudy Noor Fadhlia, Zhillan Zhalila Fahlevi

Journal Of Middle East and Islamic Studies

In 2025, the Trump administration implemented sweeping tariff measures as part of its "America First" trade agenda. While aimed broadly at correcting trade imbalances, these policies have had significant ripple effects on Middle Eastern economies, particularly in the Gulf. The objective is to examine how the Trump administration’s tariff regime constitutes a deliberate exercise in economic statecraft and how Gulf states are responding to preserve economic sovereignty and geopolitical relevance. The methodology involves qualitative research method and collecting the data through documents. The paper distinguishes the U.S. tariff regime through the lens of economic coercion, categorizing these tariffs as strategic …

The Implications Of Religiosity And Complementary Determinants On The Repurchase Intention Of Halal-Certified Food In Indonesia 2024, Jihan Luthfiyyah Siregar, Nurdin Sobari

ASEAN Marketing Journal

Manuscript Type: Research Article.

Research Aims: This study applies the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) framework to examine the impact of religiosity on repurchase intentions for halal-certified food, incorporating factors such as subjective norms, awareness, trust, halal knowledge, halal certification, and perceived behavioral control.

Design/Methodology/Approach: Data were collected from 472 respondents through a purposive sampling survey in Indonesia, and analyzed using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) with SmartPLS v.3.2.9.

Research Findings: A total of 20 hypotheses were tested. The findings reveal that religiosity influences the mediators—halal knowledge, halal certification, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control—which, in turn, shape attitudes and stimulate …

Islamic Approach Analysis Sustainable Development: The Role Of Geopolitical Risk On Environmental In Indonesia, Basri -. Basri, Muh. Asharif Suleman

Journal Of Middle East and Islamic Studies

Studi ini mengkaji faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi pembangunan berkelanjutan di Indonesia, dengan fokus pada kualitas lingkungan melalui perspektif Islam. Di tengah dinamika geopolitik global, risiko-risiko tersebut secara signifikan mempengaruhi kebijakan dan praktik lingkungan. Pendekatan Islam menawarkan kerangka kerja yang khas dengan mengintegrasikan nilai-nilai etika, spiritual, dan sosial ke dalam tata kelola lingkungan. Dengan menggunakan data deret waktu dari tahun 1992–2022 dan Model Koreksi Kesalahan Vektor (VECM), penelitian ini menganalisis hubungan jangka pendek dan jangka panjang antara risiko geopolitik, ketegasan kebijakan lingkungan, dan modal manusia terhadap kualitas lingkungan. Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa risiko geopolitik memiliki efek jangka pendek yang signifikan tetapi tidak berdampak …

Do Anterior-Posterior Lumbar Fusions Provide More Short-Term Value Than Posterior-Only? An Application Of The Operative Value Index, Steven R. Glener, Advith Sarikonda, D. Mitchell Self, Ashmal Sami, Danyal Quraishi, Emily Isch, Arbaz A. Momin, Cheritesh R. Amaravadi, Jack Jallo, Joshua Heller, Ashwini Sharan, Alex R. Vaccaro, Srinivas K. Prasad, James Harrop, Nicholas J. Clark, Ahilan Sivaganesan

Department of Neurosurgery Faculty Papers

BACKGROUND: Lumbar fusion is a common treatment for degenerative spine changes. Although both anterior-posterior (AP) and posterior-only approaches are used, their cost-effectiveness remains uncertain. This study aims to compare the costs and short-term "value" (outcomes per dollar spent) of AP and posterior-only lumbar fusions using time-driven activity-based costing and patient-reported outcomes.

METHODS: A retrospective review of AP and posterior lumbar fusions from 2017 to 2022 was conducted. Time-driven activity-based costing was used to assign intraoperative costs based on resource utilization, and the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) was collected preoperatively and 3 months postoperatively. The Operative Value Index (OVI) was defined …

Lessons Learned: Luis Jácome, Mercedes Cardona

Journal of Financial Crises

Luis Jácome was appointed president of the board of Ecuador’s central bank in 1998 by newly elected President Jamil Mahuad. He and other members of the board resigned in 1999 in protest against a number of crisis-intervention measures they saw as threatening the bank’s independence to set monetary policy. Since the 1970s, Ecuador’s economy had experienced a period of growth fueled by oil exports, but by the mid-1990s the economy was reeling from a series of shocks, among them: a sharp drop in the price of oil, the effects of severe flooding on the country’s agricultural production, and the cost …

Lessons Learned: Benoît Cœuré, Mercedes Cardona

Journal of Financial Crises

Benoît Cœuré held several positions in the French Treasury in the years leading to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). He was an economic adviser to the director general of the French Treasury from 1997–2002, deputy chief executive and chief executive of the French debt management office from 2002–2007, and assistant secretary for multilateral affairs, trade, and development from 2007–2009. He served as chief economist and deputy director general in 2009–2011. He joined the European Central Bank (ECB) during the European Sovereign debt Crisis and was responsible for market operations, market infrastructure supervision and European and international relations as a member …

Lessons Learned: Miguel Carcaño, Mercedes Cardona

Journal of Financial Crises

During the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), Miguel Carcaño served as head of the Spanish Treasury’s Fund for Orderly Bank Restructuring, the authority in charge of managing the restructuring process of the country’s credit institutions. The fund, known today as the Spanish Executive Resolution Authority, is integrated into the European network led by the Single Resolution Board (SRB) of the European Union’s banking union. Carcaño has held a number of posts within the SRB and in 2022 became head of the Single Resolution Fund, the SRB’s emergency fund, which serves as backstop for institutions across the banking union’s 21 countries.

Lessons Learned: Mark Branson, Mercedes Cardona

Journal of Financial Crises

Mark Branson joined the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) as head of the banking division in 2010, during the European Sovereign Debt Crisis. He became deputy director of FINMA in 2013 and was named director a year later. Although Switzerland is not a member of the European Union (EU) or its banking union, the nation participates in bilateral agreements that govern trade with the EU, its largest trading partner. In the wake of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), it enacted a number of regulations to improve oversight of the financial sector. Branson left FINMA in 2021 to become head …

United States: Rhode Island Limited Bank Holiday, 1991, Ayodeji George, Sophia Alden

Journal of Financial Crises

In 1990, the Rhode Island Share and Deposit Indemnity Corporation (RISDIC) was a private mutual deposit insurance corporation funded by member institutions. Late that year, after the failures of two of its insured institutions in July and October, other RISDIC member institutions faced large depositor withdrawals, as concerns began to focus on the financial health of RISDIC itself. RISDIC had maintained inadequate reserves, and on December 31, 1990, it found itself lacking the resources to cover depositor withdrawals from member institutions. RISDIC leadership requested a state-appointed conservator, which meant that all its member institutions no longer had the deposit insurance …

Survey Of Bank Holidays And Fund Suspensions, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Owen Heaphy, Anmol Makhija, Stella Schaefer-Brown, Greg Feldberg, Andrew Metrick

Journal of Financial Crises

In this paper, we analyze seven case studies involving bank holidays and two involving mutual fund suspensions produced by the Yale Program on Financial Stability. Our main purpose is to assist policymakers who are considering utilizing a bank holiday in designing the most effective program as efficiently as possible. We find that a bank holiday may be most useful when designing and implementing a comprehensive remedy to an underlying problem distressing banks, particularly when an exogenous shock rather than balance sheet weaknesses is the cause of general distress to the system. A holiday is also useful to “ring-fence” one or …

The Evolution Of Global Gold And Copper Trade Networks, Oleksandr Hulianskyi

Northeast Journal of Complex Systems (NEJCS)

Gold and copper have emerged as two of the most vital commodities in global trade. Despite serving distinct purposes, their international trade networks reveal interconnected patterns, critical to understanding the dynamics of global economics. This paper studies these attributes and their evolution during the last 36 years for both metals and finds correlations between them. The first part of the research is focused on the sustainability of networks through efficiency and robustness indexes; the second part is dedicated to interconnectedness – the Louvain and Bayesian SBM algorithms, partition, and modularity instruments are used. Community detection algorithms provide valuable insights into …

The Labor Supply Curve Is Upward Sloping: The Effects Of Immigrant-Induced Demand Shocks, Sigurd Galaasen, Andreas Kostøl, Joan Monras, Jonathan Vogel

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

What is the effect of immigration on native labor-market outcomes? An extensive literature identifies the differential impact of immigration on natives employed in jobs that are more exposed to immigrant labor (supply exposure). But immigrants consume in addition to producing output. Despite this, no literature identifies the impact on natives employed in jobs that are more exposed to immigrant consumption (demand exposure). We study native labor market effects of supply and demand exposures to immigration. Theoretically, we formalize both measures of exposure and solve for their effects on native wages. Empirically, we combine employer-employee data with a newly collected data …

Efficient Difference-In-Differences And Event Study Estimators, Xiaohong Chen, Pedro H. C. Sant’Anna, Haitian Xie

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper investigates efficient Difference-in-Differences (DiD) and Event Study (ES) estimation using short panel data sets within the heterogeneous treatment effect framework, free from parametric functional form assumptions and allowing for variation in treatment timing. We provide an equivalent characterization of the DiD potential outcome model using sequential conditional moment restrictions on observables, which shows that the DiD identification assumptions typically imply nonparametric overidentification restrictions. We derive the semiparametric efficient influence function (EIF) in closed form for DiD and ES causal parameters under commonly imposed parallel trends assumptions. The EIF is automatically Neyman orthogonal and yields the smallest variance among …

The Effects Of Sleep Restriction And Time Of Day On Food-Specific Impulsivity, Approach-Avoidance Bias And Delay Discounting, Naomi Kakoschke, David L. Dickinson, Sean P. A. Drummond

ESI Publications

Background:

Insufficient sleep and circadian timing are both linked with obesity, primarily via unhealthy food choice, yet the cognitive mechanisms underpinning such relationships remain unclear.

Methods:

Across two studies, we implemented an ecologically valid within-subjects at-home protocol. Study 1 (n = 118) involved a within-subjects examination of how sleep restriction (SR) versus well-rested (WR) sleep levels affect choices in a food-based approach-avoidance task (AAT) and go–no/go (GNG) task, a food liking task, a food-choice task, a psychomotor vigilance task (PVT), and a monetary choice task. Study 2 (n = 119) involved examining choices in the same set of …

Complementarities In High School And College Investments, John Eric Humphries, Juanna Schrøter Joensen, Gregory Veramendi

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper examines how high school specialization shapes college investment decisions and their subsequent returns through dynamic complementarities. Using Swedish administrative data, we estimate a dynamic Roy model that accounts for selection on multidimensional skills, family background, prior investments, and unobserved heterogeneity. We identify the model using rich skill measures and quasi-experimental variation in program popularity. For marginal students, STEM specialization in high school increases wages by 9%, with more than half this return attributed to dynamic complementarities that enhance the productivity of subsequent college investments. Consequently, we find that counterfactual policies encouraging high school STEM specialization generate twice the …

A Multivariate Time Series Analysis Of Secular Stagnation: A Critical Realist Perspective, Francis N. Mensah

Doctoral Dissertations and Projects

The study investigated whether excess saving over investment explains secular stagnation or is linked to structural break (hysteresis) in aggregate economic activity as measured by the changes in the level of GDP. The U.S. economy, including the advanced economies, is experiencing secular stagnation, potentially caused by excess savings over investment. This condition, if present, could have significant implications for how we can conduct economic policy. Instead of focusing on gross domestic product (GDP), a measure of economic activity, the study extends the existing literature by concentrating on aggregate private-sector output. The rationale is that if there is secular stagnation or …

Working Paper No. 100, Social Realism And Socialist Realism, Amanda F. Worman

Working Papers in Economics

This inquiry sees to establish that as a genre, “social realism” reflected values of the American system of market capitalism out of which this art style emerged. During the same timeframe, what has been categorized as “socialist realism” reflected values of the Soviet system out of which this art style also arose. The “Great Depression” that dogged the American economy and society through the 1930s, as well as the “Iron Fist” rule characteristic of Joseph Stalin’s heavy industrialization drive for Soviet Russia, appears to have promoted and shaped these two distinct but similar art styles under consideration, as responses to …

Working Paper No. 95, Jeremy Bentham And English Common Law, Anastasia Klingler

Working Papers in Economics

This inquiry seeks to establish that in his book, The Theory of Legislation [1802], author Jeremy Bentham (1748-1832) critiqued English Common Law while also posing solutions and alternatives. The first part of this inquiry considers Bentham’s critique of the degrees of vagueness and confusion that could be associated with what is noted as “Common Law” with its emphasis upon the “principle of expectation.” In addition, this inquiry introduces and considers Bentham’s warnings against uses associated with the English legal system and its emphasis upon the importance of “precedent,” as this emphasis is argued to open risks for abuse by courts …

Working Paper No. 102, Knowledge And Power: Towards Anintellectual Biography Of Michel Foucault, Amanda Bergeson

Working Papers in Economics

This inquiry seeks to establish that in his efforts as an intellectual, scholar, and author of books that would include Discipline and Punish [1975], Michel Foucault emphasizes the importance of power and power relations, especially of an authority (such as a sovereign) over the common people. Drawing from Discipline and Punish [1975], this inquiry considers how Foucault’s understanding of genealogy got rooted and shaped by Friedrich Nietzsche’s critique of history; a view which altogether challenged the idea of historical progress, while also revealing the contingent nature of truth. The second section considers how sovereign power evolves into disciplinary mechanisms embedded …

Working Paper No. 97, Business Sabotage In Theory And Practice, Nathan Lewis-Lusso

Working Papers in Economics

This inquiry seeks to establish that theoretical advances offered earlier on by one Karl Marx and some decades later by one Thorstein Veblen offer insights into forms of business sabotage. Drawing upon their writings, this inquiry considers how in the writings of Marx, already in the mid-nineteenth century surplus value extraction and pecuniary sabotage serve as structural features found in a market-based economy. Marx’s consideration of surplus labor and artificial scarcity reveals how private investment seeks to constrain production in order to preserve and enhance profitability. Veblen’s theory of institutional sabotage complements Marx’s view by showing how firms could delay …

Urban-Rural Divide In Inequality’S Impact On Substance Abuse, Jonathan E. Flores

Undergraduate Theses, Capstones, and Recitals

This thesis focuses on investigating the relationship between income inequality, measured through the Gini coefficient, and drug addiction, proxied through substance-related mortality. Specifically, this thesis focuses on how these dynamics vary across rural and urban counties in the United States, using population size as a proxy. County-level data from 2016 to 2020 were collected through both the CDC and the Census Bureau and subsequently analyzed using Stata, with crude death rates from drug and alcohol causes serving as a function of the Gini coefficient, labor force participation, racial composition, and other socioeconomic indicators. Through a quadratic version of the model, …

4th Sbs International Conference 2025: Transforming Business For People And Planet, School Of Business Studies (Sbs)

Conference Proceedings

The IBA-SBS International Conference (IBA-SBSIC) brings together scholars, professionals, and policymakers from around the world, providing a platform for learning, collaboration, and cutting-edge research. As we enter the 4th edition in 2025, the conference embraces the theme "Transforming Business for People and Planet."

The business landscape is evolving rapidly, with companies increasingly held accountable for their environmental footprint, ethical responsibilities, and social impact. Governments, regulators, and consumers now demand responsible business practices that align with sustainability and long-term financial resilience. Sustainability is no longer a choice—it is a necessity. Global movements toward climate action, social equity, and responsible governance are …

A Veblenian Approach To Chaos Theory, Isaiah Henry

Hatfield Graduate Journal of Public Affairs

This paper provides a comparative analysis of Veblen's belief in disequilibrium, the field of chaos theory, and how these two frameworks connect. We explore the similarities and differences between Veblen's theories and the principles of chaos theory, including their shared emphasis on complexity and unpredictability. By analyzing the connections between Veblen's economic theories and chaos theory, we can gain a deeper understanding of the nature of disequilibrium and the complex forces that shape our world.

Fixed Income Mathematics, Kenneth S. Bigel

Open Touro Created

2025

Bond Math is at the center of the functioning of the bond markets, yet this critical sub-finance discipline is usually not accessible to the typical investor. This is an approachable study of the mathematical theories underlying Fixed Income instruments. It is not a study of bonds per se or the bond markets. The text commences with a basic review of the time value of money, i.e., the theory of compound interest. It then proceeds to discuss how bond prices and yields are determined. Next, it covers the relationships between bond prices and general movements of interest rates in the …

Scalable Targeting Of Social Protection: When Do Algorithms Out-Perform Surveys And Community Knowledge?, Emily Aiken, Anik Ashraf, Joshua E. Blumenstock, Raymond P. Guiteras, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak

Discussion Papers

Innovations in big data and algorithms are enabling new approaches to target interventions at scale. We compare the accuracy of three different systems for identifying the poor to receive benefit transfers — proxy means-testing, nominations from community members, and an algorithmic approach using machine learning to predict poverty using mobile phone usage behavior — and study how their cost-effectiveness varies with the scale and scope of the program. We collect mobile phone records from all major telecom operators in Bangladesh and conduct community-based wealth rankings and detailed consumption surveys of 5,000 households, to select the 22,000 poorest households for $300 …

Scalable Targeting Of Social Protection: When Do Algorithms Out-Perform Surveys And Community Knowledge?, Emily Aiken, Anik Ashraf, Joshua E. Blumenstock, Raymond Guiteras, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Innovations in big data and algorithms are enabling new approaches to target interventions at scale. We compare the accuracy of three different systems for identifying the poor to receive benefit transfers — proxy means-testing, nominations from community members, and an algorithmic approach using machine learning to predict poverty using mobile phone usage behavior — and study how their cost-effectiveness varies with the scale and scope of the program. We collect mobile phone records from all major telecom operators in Bangladesh and conduct community-based wealth rankings and detailed consumption surveys of 5,000 households, to select the 22,000 poorest households for $300 …