Digital Commons Network^™

Does Attending A More Elite School Lead To Better Labor Market Outcomes?: Evidence From The College Football Labor Market Using Screening Information, Kyle Brookman

Boise State University Theses and Dissertations

College football prospects in the market for an athletic scholarship face similar career-altering choices as traditional academic students when selecting a college, however, the market they operate in is very different. They are actively recruited by university coaches and closely observed by a college sports scouting industry. Their choice of school is highly anticipated and publicized within college sport culture. College football is no doubt a lucrative industry, particularly for the elite university football programs, but one may want to know if the athletic scholars themselves gain in any career measurable way by attending a more elite university football program. …

Purchasing Power Parity Approach To Exchange Rate Misalignment In Nigeria, Nakorji Musa, Agboegbulem Ngozi T. I., Gaiya Blessing A., Atoi Ngozi V.

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the purchasing power parity (PPP) approach to the determination of exchange rate misalignment in Nigeria by using two variants of the PPP: the absolute PPP (aPPP) and the relative PPP (rPPP). Data on the Nigerian Naira to US Dollar (N/$), British Pound (N/£) and Chinese Yuan (N/¥) interbank exchange rates, Nigeria consumer price index and Inflation as well as the US, UK and China consumer price indices and inflation rates spanning 2008:M1 to 2018:M12 were utilized. A recently modified fractional cointegration framework was employed, taking care of smooth structural breaks and nonlinearity, while the unit root tests …

Analysing User Experience Of Mobile Banking Applications In Nigeria: A Text Mining Approach, Omotosho Babatunde S.

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper analyses textual data mined from 37,460 reviews written by mobile banking application users in Nigeria over the period November 2012 – July 2020. On a scale of 1 to 5 (5 being the best), the average user rating for the twenty-two apps included in our sample is 3.5; with the apps deployed by non-interest banks having the highest average rating of 4.0 and those by commercial banks with national authorisation having the least rating of 3.4. Results from the sentiment analysis reveal that the share of positive sentiment words (17.8%) in the corpus more than double that of …

Money And Foreign Exchange Markets Dynamics In Nigeria: A Multivariate Garch Approach, Atoi Ngozi V., Nwambeke Chinedu G.

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the money market and foreign exchange market dynamics in Nigeria by estimating the dynamic correlation and volatility spillovers between the Nigeria Naira/US Dollar Bureau De Change (BDC) exchange rate and interbank call rate with data from January 2007 to August 2019. The study employs a dynamic conditional correlation form of the GARCH model (DCC-GARCH) to assess the nature of correlation, while an unrestricted bivariate BEKK-GARCH (1, 1) form of the multivariate GARCH model is utilized to investigate shocks and volatility spillover of the rates. The estimated DCC-GARCH (1, 1) reveals that interest rate and exchange rate are …

Impact Of Government Expenditure On Economic Growth In Nigeria, 1970-2019, Aluthge Chandana, Jibir Adamu, Abdu Musa

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the impact of Nigerian government expenditure (disaggregated into capital and recurrent) on economic growth using time series data for the period 1970-2019. The paper employs Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. To ensure robustness of results, the study accounts for structural breaks in the unit root test and the co-integration analysis. The key findings of the study are that capital expenditure has positive and significant impact on economic growth both in the short run and long run while recurrent expenditure does not have significant impact on economic growth both in the short run and long run. The study …

Causal Change Detection In Possibly Integrated Systems: Revisiting The Money-Income Relationship, Shuping Shi, Stan Hurn, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper re-examines changes in the causal link between money and income in the United States over the past half century (1959-2014). Three methods for the data-driven discovery of change points in causal relationships are proposed, all of which can be implemented without prior detrending of the data. These methods are a forward recursive algorithm, a rolling window algorithm, and a recursive evolving algorithm all of which utilize subsample tests of Granger causality within a lagaugmented vector autoregressive framework. The limit distributions for these subsample Wald tests are provided. Bootstrap methods are developed to control family-wise size in the implementation …

Testing For Structural Changes In Factor Models Via A Nonparametric Regression, Liangjun Su, Xia Wang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose a model-free test for structural changes in factor models. The basic idea is to regress the data on commonly estimated factors by local smoothing and compare the fitted values of time-varying factor loadings with those of time-invariant factor loadings estimated via principal component analysis. By construction, the test is designed to be powerful against both smooth structural changes and sudden structural breaks with a possibly unknown number of breaks and unknown break dates in the factor loadings. No restrictions on the form of alternatives or trimming of boundary regions near the beginning or end of the sample period …

Diagnostic Tests For Homoskedasticity In Spatial Cross-Sectional Or Panel Models, Badi K. Baltagi, Alain Pirotte, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose an Adjusted Quasi-Score (AQS) method for constructing tests for homoskedasticity in spatial econometric models. We first obtain an AQS function by adjusting the score-type function from the given model to achieve unbiasedness, and then develop an Outer-Product-of-Martingale-Difference (OPMD) estimate of its variance. In standard problems where a genuine (quasi) score vector is available, the AQS-OPMD method leads to finite sample improved tests over the usual methods. More importantly in non-standard problems where a genuine (quasi) score is not available and the usual methods fail, the proposed AQS-OPMD method provides feasible solutions. The AQS tests are formally derived and …

Quasi-Bayesian Inference For Production Frontiers, Xiaobin Liu, Thomas Tao Yang, Yichong Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose a quasi-Bayesian method to conduct inference for the production frontier. This approach combines multiple first-stage extreme quantile estimates by the quasi-Bayesian method to produce the point estimate and confidence interval for the production frontier. We show the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator and the validity of the inference procedure. The finite sample performance of our method is illustrated through simulations and an empirical application.

Density Of Demand And The Consumer Benefit From Uber, Matthew H. Shapiro

Research Collection School Of Economics

Uber has attracted the attention of economists and policy makers for its innovations in the taxicab market and its potential for significant consumer welfare gains. The size of this gain depends in part on whether these innovations permit transactions previously costly or infeasible. Using New York City — the largest taxi market in the country — as its context, this paper estimates the level of any technological advantage Uber has over hail taxis in matching to consumers. I combine publicly available transportation data with data scraped from Uber and traffic cameras to estimate a model of the demand for transportation …

Selling To Reference-Dependent Consumers, Hin Shing Leung

Lingnan Theses (MPhil & PhD)

This research studies the optimal price charged by a monopoly firm when it is facing reference-dependent consumers (Kőszegi and Rabin, 2006). In the model, a consumer’s total utility from purchasing a good consists of intrinsic utility and gainloss utility, the latter of which is determined by an exogenously determined reference point. The firm’s optimal pricing depends on the level of the reference point. In particular, the firm optimally adopts a gain-type pricing strategy when the reference point is low. In this equilibrium, all consumers who purchase enjoy gain utility (gaintype consumers). When the reference point is high the firm optimally …

Deliberation Enhances The Confirmation Bias In Politics, David L. Dickinson

ESI Publications

The confirmation bias, unlike other decision biases, has been shown both empirically and in theory to be enhanced with deliberation. This suggests that limited attention, reduced deliberation, or limited available cognitive resources may moderate this bias. We aimed to test this hypothesis using a validated confirmation bias task in conjunction with a protocol that randomly assigned individuals to one week of at-home sleep restriction (SR) or well-rested (WR) sleep levels. We also used a measure of cognitive reflection as an additional proxy for deliberation in our analysis. We tested the hypotheses that the confirmation bias would be stronger for WR …

Rural Community Toolbox To Help Battle Opioid Epidemic, Liz Carey

Journal of Appalachian Health

An online data repository and toolbox created by the Office of National Drug Control Policy is designed to provide communities with knowledge and resources to fight the opioid epidemic according to their unique needs.

Writing Tips For Economics Research Papers, Plamen Nikolov

Economics Faculty Scholarship

No abstract provided.

Open Banking: Credit Market Competition When Borrowers Own The Data, Zhiguo He, Jing Huang, Jidong Zhou

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Open banking facilitates data sharing consented by customers who generate the data, with a regulatory goal of promoting competition between traditional banks and challenger fintech entrants. We study lending market competition when sharing banks’ customer data enables better borrower screening or targeting by fintech lenders. Open banking could make the entire financial industry better off yet leave all borrowers worse off, even if borrowers could choose whether to share their data. We highlight the importance of equilibrium credit quality inference from borrowers’ endogenous sign-up decisions. When data sharing triggers privacy concerns by facilitating exploitative targeted loans, the equilibrium sign-up population …

Speed Traps: Algorithmic Trader Performance Under Alternative Market Structures, Yan Peng, Jason Shachat, Lijia Wei, S. Sarah Zhang

ESI Working Papers

Using laboratory experiments, we illustrate that trading algorithms that prioritize low latency pose certain pitfalls in a variety of market structures and configurations. In hybrid double auctions markets with human traders and trading agents, we find superior performance of trading agents to human traders in balanced markets with the same number of human and Zero Intelligence Plus (ZIP) buyers and sellers only, thus providing a partial replication of Das et al. (2001). However, in unbalanced markets and extreme market structures, such as monopolies and duopolies, fast ZIP agents fall into a speed trap and both human participants and slow ZIP …

The Cost Effectiveness Of Mental Health Treatment In The Lifetime Of Older Adults With Hiv In New York City: A Markov Approach, Juan J. Delacruz, Mark Brennan-Ing, Andreas Kakolyris, Omar Martinez

Publications and Research

Background

There are noticeable gaps in knowledge regarding the cost and effectiveness of integrated medical and behavioral services for older adults with HIV. Their lifespan is close to the population’s level but their quality of life has sharply declined due to depression and substance use. Mental health disorders are widespread among an aging population with HIV. Objective The aim of this study was to build a decision analytic model to evaluate medical interventions with and without mental health treatment using primary data of 139 older adults with HIV and health outcomes from the literature.

Methods

We tracked the progression of …

Economic Insecurity And Social Stability: An Exploration Of One Of Capitalism’S Vicious Cycles, Costas Panayotakis

Publications and Research

This article analyzes how capitalism’s connection to economic insecurity can, rather than fomenting social unrest, facilitate its reproduction. Also responding to contrasts in the literature between rising insecurity in recent decades and the containment of insecurity in capitalism’s post-war ‘golden age,’ this article explains why growing insecurity is more consistent with capitalism’s normal operation. Underlining the difficulty of replicating post-war efforts to mitigate insecurity through social and welfare policies, this article also sketches how the vicious cycle between capitalism and economic insecurity contributes to other serious social problems, including racism, sexism, xenophobia, the hollowing out of political democracy and a …

Seasonal Forecast Based Preharvest Hedging, Eric D. Hunt, Cory Walters, Toni Klemm, Iyore Eronmwon

Cornhusker Economics

Given the immense effect of weather on agriculture, skillful weather forecasts are of importance to agricultural producers for effective decision making. Weather forecasts affect operational decisions such as whether or not to irrigate (where applicable), when to apply fertilizer, when to spray herbicide and pesticide, and certainly the timing of planting and harvesting. At the seasonal time scale, say in the spring, just before planting, weather forecasts may be used for strategic decision making on outcomes, say from preharvest hedging (hereafter referred to hedging), that will not be realized until the fall or harvest. Historically, the lack of skill in …

The Relationship Between Government Expenditure And Gdp In Nonoil Iraqi Economy, Hasan Radhi

Journal of the Arab American University مجلة الجامعة العربية الامريكية للبحوث

In this paper, the relationship between government ependiture and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in non-oil Iraqi economy has been examined. This study analyzed the evolution of the government expenditure (consumption and investment) in the Iraqi economy for the period of (1990-2014).It is assumed that non-oil GDP is the indicator that reflects the performance of macroeconomic activity and any decline in GDP is attributed to the increase in the consumer behavior in the government expenditure policy , the proportion of the consumer expenditure,which is financed by oil revenues, and the transformation of state institutions into social security institutions at the expense …

A Theory Of Cultural Revivals, Murat Iyigun, Jared Rubin, Avner Seror

ESI Working Papers

Why do some societies have political institutions that support productively inefficient outcomes? And why does the political power of elites vested in these outcomes often grow over time, even when they are unable to block more efficient modes of production? We propose an explanation centered on the interplay between political and cultural change. We build a model in which cultural values are transmitted inter-generationally. The cultural composition of society, in turn, determines public good provision as well as the future political power of elites from different cultural groups. We characterize the equilibrium of the model and provide sufficient conditions for …

Data Driven Value-At-Risk Forecasting Using A Svr-Garch-Kde Hybrid, Marius Lux, Wolfgang Karl Hardle, Stefan Lessmann

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

Appropriate risk management is crucial to ensure the competitiveness of financial institutions and the stability of the economy. One widely used financial risk measure is value-at-risk (VaR). VaR estimates based on linear and parametric models can lead to biased results or even underestimation of risk due to time varying volatility, skewness and leptokurtosis of financial return series. The paper proposes a nonlinear and nonparametric framework to forecast VaR that is motivated by overcoming the disadvantages of parametric models with a purely data driven approach. Mean and volatility are modeled via support vector regression (SVR) where the volatility model is motivated …

Taxing Gambling Machines To Enhance Public And Private Revenue, Thomas A. Garrett, David Paton, Leighton Vaughan Williams

Faculty and Student Publications

© 2020 The Authors. Kyklos published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd Electronic gambling (‘slot’) machines are a key component of the global gambling industry. We introduce a theoretical framework which shows that under reasonable assumptions, shifting from a per-machine licence fee to a gross profits tax (GPT) on machine revenue can help to resolve policy tensions between industry profitability, economic growth and government revenue. We test the theory using data on recent changes to gambling taxation in the UK, in particular the move to a gross profits-based Machine Games Duty (MGD). Our results reveal that the shift from licence …

Labor Market, Urban Poverty And Propoor Employment Policies, Heba Nassar, Heba El-Laithy

Faculty Journal Articles

A complicated relationship exists between labor market mechanisms and poverty. Poverty might arise from labor market mechanisms, as much as from other more obvious factors such as overall living standards, low levels of production and productivity as well as socioeconomic conditions that lead to inequalities in the labor market. This paper tries to study the relationship between urban poverty and the labor market by constructing a poverty index using the data of the Survey" Socioeconomic conditions of Work in Greater Cairo". Factor analysis was used to combine seventeen socio-economic variables in one poverty index. The index was used to study …

Did Covid-19 Change Life Insurance Offerings?, Timothy F. Harris, Aaron Yelowitz, Charles J. Courtemanche

Institute for the Study of Free Enterprise Working Papers

The profitability of life insurance offerings is contingent on accurate projections and pricing of mortality risk. The COVID-19 pandemic created significant uncertainty, with dire mortality predictions from early forecasts resulting in widespread government intervention and greater individual precaution that reduced the projected death toll. We analyze how life insurance companies changed pricing and offerings in response to COVID-19 using monthly data on term life insurance policies from Compulife. We estimate event-study models that exploit well-established variation in the COVID-19 mortality rate based on age and underlying health status. Despite the increase in mortality risk and significant uncertainty, we find limited …

Macroeconomic Stabilization In The Digital Age, John Beirne, David Fernandez

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Macroeconomic Stabilization in the Digital Age provides insights into factors affecting the macroeconomic management of the economy in the digital age. Policy makers need to be aware of the increasing prominence of the digital economy and digital finance and seek to better understand how continued digitalization will affect policies aimed at managing the economy. For emerging market economies (EMEs), macroeconomic policy challenges have been exacerbated by the digital finance revolution in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, when many EMEs experienced large and volatile capital flows. Policy makers must also navigate through fluctuating …

Open Banking: Credit Market Competition When Borrowers Own The Data, Zhiguo He, Jing Huang, Jidong Zhou

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Open banking facilitates data sharing consented to by customers who generate the data, with the regulatory goal of promoting competition between traditional banks and challenger fintech entrants. We study lending market competition when sharing banks’ customer transaction data enables better borrower screening. Open banking can make the entire financial industry better off yet leave all borrowers worse off, even if borrowers have the control of whether to share their banking data. We highlight the importance of the equilibrium credit quality inference from borrowers’ endogenous sign-up decisions. We also study extensions with fintech affinities and data sharing on borrower preferences.

The Effects Of Time In Prison And Time On Parole On Recidivism, Mariyana Zapryanova

Economics: Faculty Publications

In the United States, every year roughly 600,000 people are released from prison, two-thirds of them without having served their full sentence behind bars. Yet little is known about how release before full completion of sentence affects recidivism. I exploit the distinction between sentence and time served in prison to better understand how custodial and noncustodial sanctions affect recidivism. In particular, I study the effects of time in prison and time on parole on recidivism. Relying on two instrumental variables that provide independent variation in sentence and time served in prison, I do not find evidence that parole time affects …

Health Have, Health Have Nots In A Time Of Covid-19, Sandro Galea

Center for Policy Research

In this brief, my goal is to talk about something which has animated a lot of my thinking and writing in the past decade. It is how our health is fundamentally socially patterned and reflects the world around us. This has been true for decades in this country, and one could also argue, globally, however this brief will focus on this topic at the national level. As you will see, I will talk mostly of health haves and health have nots in general, but as we progress, show how COVID-19 has made this evermore apparent.

The Dorian Gray Phenomenon In Financial Markets, Ajay Makhija

Asian Management Insights

Looking at the current state of the global economy and the extent of financial market hedonism through the lens of Oscar Wilde’s “The Picture of Dorian Gray”.