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Public Debt Sustainability Measures And Its Growth Implications For The Nigerian Economy, O. W. Gobna, G. Usman, S. S. Mohammed

Economic and Financial Review

This study utilises the linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models to investigate the impact of public debt sustainability measures and its growth implications for the Nigerian economy from 1981 and 2021. The results suggest that public debt-to-oil revenue ratio (PDOR) has a significantly negative effect on economic growth both in the long- and short-run. It also shows that public debt-to-non-oil revenue ratio has an asymmetric effect in the short-run and a positive relationship on economic growth in the long-run. The study concludes that economic growth needs to be enhanced through improved government non-oil revenue. Therefore, to bolster economic …

Do Geopolitical Risks And Economic Uncertainty Matter For Fiscal Sustainability In Nigeria?, E. A. Udeaja, S. T. Zimbo, P. F. Offum, B. O. Fashoro

Economic and Financial Review

This paper attempts to answer the question about whether geopolitical risks and economic uncertainty matter for fiscal sustainability in Nigeria. The paper employs the ARDL model and bounds test approach to cointegration to analyse quarterly data for the period 2010Q1 to 2021Q4. The main finding indicates that geopolitical risks significantly enhance fiscal sustainability in the short- and long-run, while economic uncertainty does not. Accordingly, the study recommends the implementation of policies aimed at maximising the benefits of rising oil price triggered by geopolitical risks to improve fiscal sustainability in Nigeria.

Does The Okun's Law Hold In The Brics Countries And Nigeria?, U. Aminu, A. Abel, A. R. Garba

Economic and Financial Review

The unemployment-output nexus is a topical issue in developing countries, particularly with some evidence against the trade-off suggested by Okun’s law. This study, therefore, investigates the validity of Okun’s law in the BRICS countries and Nigeria, based on annual data between 1993 and 2020, using the Panel ARDL model. We validate the Okun’s law with evidence of an inverse relationship between output and unemployment in the BRICS countries and Nigeria. We, therefore, recommend that policymakers should boost both nominal and potential output by fully diversifying the economy to enhance productivity and reduction in the unemployment rate. We also recommend that …

(Wp 2022-05) Change In And Changing Economics, John B. Davis

Economics Working Papers

Change in economics has likely always been a subject of discussion in economics and political economy. That discussion may have languished in the first post-World War II decades when neoclassicism was ascendent and dominated economics, but the emergence of game theory, more recently behavioral economics, and a variety of other new fields and approaches in economics since the 1980s has re-invigorated interest in the subject so that now there are many views on it. Yet systematic investigation of what change in economics involves has advanced little. Change is clearly always on-going in any discipline, but when it is said there …

The Effect Of Stem Education On Women, Jasmine Gloden

University Honors Theses

This inquiry seeks to establish the effect of a STEM education on labor market outcomes for women. Gender differences in interest and performance in STEM fields begin at an early age, and remain steadfast through education and into the labor market. Due to factors like lack of female role models in STEM, gender stereotypes, and lack of growth mindset in terms of intellectual abilities, women can be discouraged throughout their education from continuing in a STEM education or pursuing a STEM occupation. Using data from the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002, I determined the effect of a STEM education for …

Essays On Long Memory Time Series And Panel Models, Shuyao Ke

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation studies different long memory models. The first chapter considers a time series regression model where both the regressors and error term are locally stationary long memory processes with time-varying memory parameters, and the regression coefficients are also allowed to be time-varying. We consider a frequency-domain least squares estimator with kernelized discrete Fourier transform and derive its pointwise asymptotic normality and uniform consistency. A specification test on the constancy of coefficients is provided. The second chapter studies a linear regression panel data model with interactive fixed effects where the regressors, factors and idiosyncratic error terms are all stationary but …

Effectiveness Of Foreign Aid In Poverty Reduction In Africa: The Role Of Fiscal Policy, Iwegbu Onyebuchi, Risikat O. S. Dauda

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines foreign aid effectiveness in poverty reduction in Africa with focus on the role of regional fiscal policy on education and health. The study employs panel dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimation technique and covers the period 1980-2017. The results reveal that foreign aid augmented with effective fiscal policy on education significantly improves the income level in all the regions except Central Africa, and consumption in the Western and Central regions. When augmented with effective fiscal policy on health foreign aid enhances households’ income in West and Central Africa and consumption in West and Southern regions. Furthermore, foreign …

Assessing The Nexus Among Energy Consumption, Foreign Direct Investment And Economic Growth In Sub-Saharan Africa, Olanrele1 Iyabo A., Awode Segun S.

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the dynamic relationship among energy consumption, foreign direct investment, and economic growth in Sub-Sahara Africa. Beyond assessing the tripartite causal relationship, the study investigates the extent of impacts among energy consumption, foreign direct investment, and economic growth using the Generalised Method of Moments. The study utilises data from 42 Sub-Saharan African countries spanning 1991 to 2018. Findings from the study show that a percentage increase in energy consumption engenders economic growth by 1.3 percent. Conversely, economic growth increases energy consumption by 0.004 percent. Also, there is a significant one-way causality running from foreign direct investment (FDI) to …

Interest Rate Pass-Through In Nigeria: An Asymmetric Cointegration Approach, Aliyu Alhaji Jibrilla, Dahiru Hassan Balami Dr

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper empirically examines the pass-through of the Central Bank of Nigeria policy rate to commercial banks’ retail rates. The study covers the pre-liberalization (1962M01–1987M07) and post-liberalization (1987M08–2020M09) periods, and employs asymmetric cointegration and error-correction modelling approach. The empirical results indicate that the pass-through is incomplete during both periods, though, it is larger during the pre-liberalization period. The study further reveals that the banking crises lead to an increase in the lending rate in the long and short run. The effect of the crises on the deposit rate is also positive but only significant in the short run. The empirical …

Effect Of Monetary Policy Rate On Market Interest Rates In Nigeria: A Threshold And Nardl Approach, Oluwafemi E. Awopegba, Joseph O. Afolabi, Lydia T. Adeoye, Godwin O. Akpokodje

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the effect of monetary policy rate (MPR) on market interest rates in Nigeria. For parsimony, we develop two indexes called the short-term interest rate (SINT) and Lending interest rate (LINT) to represent deposit and lending rates respectively. The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) and threshold regression models are adopted. The study uses monthly data from 2002:M1 to 2019:M12. The results of the threshold regression model indicate that the degree of the effect of MPR on SINT and LINT above the estimated threshold of 11 and 13 percent respectively is greater and significant than if MPR were to …

Effect Of Fdi Inflows On Employment Generation In Selected Ecowas Countries: Heterogeneous Panel Analysis, Timothy A. Aderemi, Olawunmi Omitogun, Bukonla G. Osisanwo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The aim of this study is to examine the effect of FDI on employment in ECOWAS sub region between 1990 and 2019. The study utilizes a panel autoregressive distributed lag model to analyse the short run and long run relationship between FDI and employment across ECOWAS sub region. In the short run, the impact of FDI on employment is negative and statistically not significant. Meanwhile, in the long run FDI has a positive and statistically significant impact on employment rate. This implies that FDI has the capacity to generate employment in countries in ECOWAS sub region. Therefore, this study recommends …

Impact Of Covid-19 Pandemic On The Nigeria Stock Market: A Sectoral Stock Prices Analysis, Peter A. Adekunle, Yakubu A. Bello, Udochukwu G. Nwachukwu

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on sectoral stock prices in Nigeria stock market using daily data covering from February 28, 2020 to June 26, 2020. Applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test, the study finds that COVID-19 pandemic had adverse impact on the stock market indices in the short run. Furthermore, the study documents negative response of sectoral stock prices to the pandemic while the stock prices of the banking sub-sector are the worst hit. Compared to the consumer goods, and industrial subsector indices, the speed of adjustment to long run equilibrium is faster for …

Modelling And Forecasting Methods In Financial Economics, Shuo Gao

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters.

Chapter 1: Behavioral heterogeneity among investors has been shown to explain the volatile nature of stock markets. In this chapter, I investigate the different behaviors of investors by proposing a heterogeneous agent model based on Chiarella et al. (2012) which involves fundamentalists, chartists, and noise traders with two-state hidden-Markov regime switching expectations. By applying the S&P 500 and CPI data from January 1990 to December 2020, the model shows strong evidence of behavioral heterogeneity among different groups of traders. After an in-sample backtesting and out-of-sample forecasting which further evaluate the capability of the model, …

Essays In Macroeconomic Policy, Meng-Ting Chen

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters that cover topics on macroeconomic policies.

Chapter 1 - Markups, Labor Share, and Wage Dispersion.

Increasing market power has an impact on labor market behavior. This paper argues that the decline in the aggregate wage after 1980 comes from both increasing aggregate product markup and decreasing aggregate labor markdown. Most of the decline is driven by the sharp decline in lower wage percentiles, which also contributes to the increasing wage dispersion. Further, both firms’ monopoly and monopsony power play important roles in explaining the decline in the aggregate labor share. I build a heterogeneous …

Spatial Panel Data Models: Unbalanced Panel, Threshold Effect And Network Structure, Xiaoyu Meng

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This thesis studies the estimation and inference problems for spatial panel data models when the panels are unbalanced, when the panels contain threshold effects, or when the panels contain time-varying network structures. These three scenarios divide the thesis naturally into three chapters.

The first chapter considers estimation and inferences for fixed effects spatial panel data models based on unbalanced panels that result from randomly missing spatial units. The unbalanced nature of the panel data renders the standard method of estimation inapplicable. In this chapter, we proposed an M-estimation method where the estimating functions are obtained by adjusting the concentrated quasi …

Weak Identification Of Long Memory With Implications For Inference, Jia Li, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper explores weak identification issues arising in commonly used models of economic and financial time series. Two highly popular configurations are shown to be asymptotically observationally equivalent: one with long memory and weak autoregressive dynamics, the other with antipersistent shocks and a near-unit autoregressive root. We develop a data-driven semiparametric and identification-robust approach to inference that reveals such ambiguities and documents the prevalence of weak identification in many realized volatility and trading volume series. The identification-robust empirical evidence generally favors long memory dynamics in volatility and volume, a conclusion that is corroborated using social-media news flow data.

Econometric Analysis Of Asset Price Bubbles, Shuping Shi, Peter C. B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

In the presence of bubbles, asset prices consist of a fundamental and a bubble component, with the bubble component following an explosive dynamic. The general idea for bubble identification is to apply explosive root tests to a proxy of the unobservable bubble. Three notable proxies are the real asset prices, log price-payoff ratios, and estimated non-fundamental components. The rationale for all three proxy choices rests on the definition of bubbles, which has been presented in various forms in the literature. This chapter provides a theoretical framework that incorporates several definitions of bubbles (and fundamentals) and offers guidance for selecting proxies. …

Constructing Indonesian Digital Economy Index In Determining Economic Policy Priorities Amidst The Covid-19 Pandemic, Diah Rukmana Sari, Nasrudin Nasrudin

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

The constant increase in the number of internet users in Indonesia amid a sluggish economy caused by the Large-Scale Social Restriction (PSBB) policy is a great opportunity for a digital-based economy. However, the unavailability of relevant macroeconomic statistical measurements inhibits the digital economy from being determined as a policy priority amidst the Covid-19 pandemic. This study offers an alternative measurement of the digital economy of Indonesia by establishing Digital Economy Index (DEI). This study discovers that digital economic activities in Indonesia have grown rapidly with an average growth of almost nine percent quarterly. On the other hand, this study also …

How To Break A Vicious Cycle : Part – I, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles

A state of uncertainty, almost at the verge of panic, prevails today in Pakistan. Prophets of gloom and doom using social and electronic media are spreading all kinds of fake, negative, partial and partisan stories and numbers. Predictions of default, bankruptcy and similarity with Sri Lanka are jarring the equity, debt and currency markets and pushing the credit default rates on Pakistani bonds in international markets to unprecedented elevated yields, making it difficult to tap these markets. However, one should present the facts and data unvarnished and untarnished. Yes, we are facing a large current account deficit that is putting …

Yearly Changes In Education Expenditure And Changes In Student Performance, Dale A. Manzo

Undergraduate Economic Review

Using data from the state of Florida in the 2000s, we dispute the findings of the Coleman report. We find that there is a positive relationship between changes in expenditure per pupil and changes in academic performance. This study takes advantage of changes in expenditure resulting from the Great Recession to formulate a quasi-experimental analysis of the relationship between expenditure per pupil and academic performance. Our conclusion is consistent with the theory of decreasing marginal returns to expenditure on education.

The Road To Reparations A Comparison Between The United States And South Africa, Ikonii Chiabi

Senior Theses

This thesis paper is designed to be an analysis of potential methods on how to achieve reparations in the United States and South Africa. Both nations’ Black demographics have been victims of white supremacy and enslavement, pushing the white masses to excel while the rest are left to parish. The oppression of these groups have been acknowledged and as opposed to a simple verbal apology, I will write on how compensation in the forms of money, education, and land can be used to undo the wrongdoings of the past. The point of this paper is to present my newfound perspective …

Using Machine Learning To Analyze Children’S Drawings As Indicators Of Mental Well-Being, Nicholas R. Lawrie

Master's Theses

Human figure drawings are a well-studied diagnostic tool for emotional distress in children. Cleft lip/palate is one of the most common birth defects in the world, and has been shown to negatively impact emotional well-being in childhood which can have negative economic consequences in adulthood. Utilizing a dataset of human figure drawings from children in India and survey data on mental health, this paper will assess the impact of corrective surgery on mental health outcomes, as well as assess the validity of the drawing emotional indicators themselves. The results indicate that while the emotional indicators may not be valid in …

Inaccessible Interpolated Imagery: How Coffee Farmers In The State Of Chiapas Might Access Political Economic Opportunity Through Representation, Paolo Fiann Bicchieri

Master's Theses

Here is a useful parable to boil down the idea of this project and set the tone: when one goes to the bar to tell a story about a fight at the bar, they would never venture to place themselves as the hero of the brawl, taking out three drunkards in a single punch, unless they were really in the bar, at that time, fighting a good fight. One would never do this as the bartender, locals, and regulars would all know if this were the case or not. Yet transnational corporations, governments, and even consumers do this all the …

Can Social Support Ameliorate Burnout?, Timothy Finney

Master's Theses

Mental health provides different areas of interest compared to physical health when looking at general health. Social support decreases the negative impacts of burnout while positively influencing productive components of the economy. Social sciences other than economics such as sociology and psychology take notice of the impact of social support on burnout. Pronto Soccorso e Medicina d’ Urgenza Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria in Parma, Italy provides high quality health care services before and throughout the COVID-19 pandemic while anticipating continuing to administer care well into the future. Here we show social support effecting workers in the health care industry. Work colleagues influencing …

The Voluntary Carbon Market: Managing The Private Provision Of Public Goods, Atticus Maloney

Gettysburg College Headquarters

While much work has examined the large-scale compliance-based carbon offset programs associated with the Kyoto Protocol and Clean Development Mechanism, there has been far less focus on the voluntary purchasing of carbon offsets. This critical literature review will look at the formation and management of the demand for voluntary carbon offsets within the United States. It will frame carbon offsets as impure public goods and review possible explanations as to why private provision has been so active in the U.S. market. The paper will then survey the efficiency gains and other benefits associated with the voluntary market. It will highlight …

On The Impact Of Imf Loans And Conditions: A Gender Lens, Reem Ahmed Kamal

Future Journal of Social Science

This paper attempts to examine the impact of IMF programs and subsequent policy conditions from a gender lens. We argue that the IMF’s orthodox adjustment policies deteriorate the development outcomes of women disproportionately, mainly due to undermining recipient states’ expenditure capacity on female-dominated work and service sectors. Consequently, women face hardships in managing their dual roles -in both the market and the domestic spheres- which affects the efficiency of society's productive and reproductive sectors. First, we detect the main macro and political-economic determinants of IMF participation using a probit estimation. Second, we use the predicted probabilities in stage one to …

Dynamics Between Power Consumption And Economic Growth At Aggregated And Disaggregated (Sectoral) Level Using The Frequency Domain Causality, Ashutosh Dash, Sangram Keshari Jena, Aviral Kumar Tiwari, Shawkat Hammoudeh

Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies

We investigated the Granger causal relationship between the consumption of power both at the aggregate and sectoral level and economic growth in India using the frequency domain approach, which would help policy makers seek the efficient allocation of electricity via proper policy initiatives at different frequencies. We find that at the aggregate level, unidirectional causality runs from the total power consumption to economic growth, starting from the second up to the seventh quarter. In the sectoral context, the results are different. Since there is no causality between industrial power consumption and economic growth; therefore, an energy conservation policy can thus …

Essays On Strategies For Increasing Repayment Rates Of Digital Microloans, Alain Rutayisire Shema

Dissertations - ALL

Access to credit can act as a highly effective tool for poverty reduction and economic growth. The ability to borrow increases the propensity of low-income people to start and maintain businesses, educate their children and withstand financial shocks. These factors, in turn, can help them to move out of poverty and lead to more sustainable economic development. However, traditional financial institutions have inherent limitations that have impeded their ability to serve the poor.

Digital lenders are able to leverage the widespread adoption of mobile phones and mobile money to extend credit quickly and conveniently to more people, especially in developing …

Three Essays On The Economics Of Education, Rachel Jarrold-Grapes

Dissertations - ALL

This dissertation is comprised of three essays on the economics of education. The first and third chapters examine marijuana legalization and its effects on students, while the second chapter examines the impact of pension incentives on teacher quality.The first chapter examines the extent to which there are negative spillovers of recreational marijuana legalization on underage marijuana use and educational outcomes. I use two complementary identification strategies that rely on plausibly exogenous spatial and temporal variation in access to marijuana in Oregon. In November of 2014, Oregon passed Measure 91, a referendum to legalize recreational marijuana. Unlike other legal states, Oregon …

Three Essays On Globalization, Structural Change, And Political Economy, Nam Seok Kim

Dissertations - ALL

Re-allocation of labor from less productive sectors to more productive sectors is essential in attaining economic growth. Because only some developing countries achieve productive labor re-allocation, it is important to address the determinant of productive labor re-allocation. Based on this motivation, Chapter 1 and Chapter 2 focus on the role of unionization in structural change. In Chapter 1, I provide detailed dynamics by constructing an index for the degree of unionization for each sector in each region of South Korea and Taiwan. The magnitude of growth-enhancing structural change was lowered when a sector in a region had a higher degree …