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Pull Strategy Marketing Public Relations Pt Gramedia Asri Media Dalam Menarik Perhatian Publik Terhadap Produk, Safrina Nur Samsiah, Meutia Nada Zahrany, Fathiya Amajida, Susie Perbawasari, Renata Anisa Dec 2023

Pull Strategy Marketing Public Relations Pt Gramedia Asri Media Dalam Menarik Perhatian Publik Terhadap Produk, Safrina Nur Samsiah, Meutia Nada Zahrany, Fathiya Amajida, Susie Perbawasari, Renata Anisa

Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis Terapan

A company or organization requires the use of Marketing Public Relations to stimulate sales. Marketing Public Relations is designed to stimulate purchases and provide satisfaction to consumers through the communication of reliable product or service information and through impressions that relate the company and its products according to consumers' needs, wants, concerns, and interests. The purpose of this study is to obtain an overview of the implementation of the Marketing Public Relations strategy to attract public attention to product excellence. This research methodology uses a qualitative descriptiveresearch method. The data collection method used was interviews with the company's Sales Superintendent, …


Evolution Of Primate Vocal Repertoires: Vocal Systems As Embodied Capital For Mediating Within-Group Conflict, Eric Schniter, Mateo Peñaherrera-Aguirre Dec 2023

Evolution Of Primate Vocal Repertoires: Vocal Systems As Embodied Capital For Mediating Within-Group Conflict, Eric Schniter, Mateo Peñaherrera-Aguirre

ESI Working Papers

Life history traits constrain investments in costly neural and somatic embodied capital, potentially shaping the evolution of primate vocal communication systems. This study integrates life history theory with the social complexity hypothesis to test a sequential pathway from longevity to social dynamics to vocal repertoire size, using updated vocal repertoire data for McComb & Semple’s (2005) set of 42 non-human primate species, alongside measures of group size and within-group conflict. We compiled data on vocal repertoire size, within-group conflict, group size, endocranial volume, and maximum longevity, analysing these via Phylogenetic Sequential Canonical Cascade Model and ancestral character reconstructions. …


Management Of Ankyloglossia In A Non-Syndromic Patient Using A Super Pulsed Laser: A Life-Changing Treatment- A Case Report, Urfi Jawed, Afaf Zia, Ramniwas Kumawat, Afshan Bey, Maahin Mahmood Dec 2023

Management Of Ankyloglossia In A Non-Syndromic Patient Using A Super Pulsed Laser: A Life-Changing Treatment- A Case Report, Urfi Jawed, Afaf Zia, Ramniwas Kumawat, Afshan Bey, Maahin Mahmood

Journal of Dentistry Indonesia

Objective: Ankyloglossia affects a person’s overall well-being and life, from malnutrition due to poor feeding and mechanical problems to psychological stress and low self-esteem, thus affecting social life. This case reports the use of non-scalpel techniques, such as a super pulsed laser, to manage ankyloglossia in a non-syndromic patient suffering from speech incompetence and restricted tongue mobility and highlights its advantages over other conventional techniques. Case Report: A 17-year-old male patient presented with a complaint of restricted tongue mobility, due to which he could not pronounce certain words clearly. As the patient was apprehensive about the use of …


Clinically Effective Regenerative Therapy For Primary Endodontic Lesions With Secondary Periodontal Lesions: A Case Report, Martina Amalia, Budi Budi, Iceu Estu Kurmaena, Nevi Yanti, Hesty Nurcahyanti, Aini Hariyani Nasution Dec 2023

Clinically Effective Regenerative Therapy For Primary Endodontic Lesions With Secondary Periodontal Lesions: A Case Report, Martina Amalia, Budi Budi, Iceu Estu Kurmaena, Nevi Yanti, Hesty Nurcahyanti, Aini Hariyani Nasution

Journal of Dentistry Indonesia

The diagnosis and prognosis of teeth with endo-perio lesions present a major challenge for dentists. Proper diagnosis is critical in determining treatment and the long-term prognosis. However, treating complex endodontic and periodontal lesions is one of the most common challenges in current clinical practice. The coexistence of pulpal and periodontal tissue damage may complicate diagnosis and further influence dental prognosis. This article consists of a case report evaluating the efficacy of xenografts and resorbable membrane pericardium in treating bifurcation lesions associated with periodontal lesions of the left mandibular first molar. A 22-year-old female patient was referred by conservative dentistry with …


Author Biographical Notes Dec 2023

Author Biographical Notes

Midwest Social Sciences Journal

No abstract provided.


Heat & Social Cooperation: The Effects Of Thermal Stress On Altruism, Alexander J. Courtman Dec 2023

Heat & Social Cooperation: The Effects Of Thermal Stress On Altruism, Alexander J. Courtman

Master's Theses

Recent literature has highlighted the effects of temperature on economic outcomes and violence in humans, on both the interpersonal and intergroup levels: as temperatures rise, humans are more likely to exhibit increased aggression and agitation. However, little research has been done on how pro-social behaviors like cooperation and altruism among humans might respond to increased temperatures. As extreme heat events increase in frequency, will humans and communities work together in the face of adverse shocks and crises? Leveraging experimental data collected randomized controlled trails held in 4 locations across the world, this paper seeks to establish a relationship between thermal …


Fintech And Entrepreneurship: An Assessment Model To Evaluate Policy Instruments For Fintech Adoption By Small And Medium Enterprises (Smes), Deemah Abdullah Alassaf Dec 2023

Fintech And Entrepreneurship: An Assessment Model To Evaluate Policy Instruments For Fintech Adoption By Small And Medium Enterprises (Smes), Deemah Abdullah Alassaf

Dissertations and Theses

Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are the engines that drive economic development. They are the backbone of the middle class as they provide social stability, innovation, inclusive growth, and poverty alleviation. SMEs contribute significantly to job creation, employment, tax provision and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However, they face inferior conditions and challenges when it comes to their financing compared to that of large enterprises, as well as having a high expectancy of failing. Because of these limitations, SMEs tend to grow slowly since building up higher credit is difficult for them, and in addition to this, they lack access …


Enlightenment Ideals And Belief In Progress In The Run-Up To The Industrial Revolution: A Textual Analysis, Ali Almelhem, Murat Iyigun, Austin Kennedy, Jared Rubin Dec 2023

Enlightenment Ideals And Belief In Progress In The Run-Up To The Industrial Revolution: A Textual Analysis, Ali Almelhem, Murat Iyigun, Austin Kennedy, Jared Rubin

ESI Working Papers

We trace the evolution of the language of science, religion, and political economy in the centuries leading to the British Industrial Revolution. Using textual analysis of 264,443 works printed in England between 1500 and 1900, we test whether British culture manifested a belief in progress associated with science and industry. Our analysis yields three main findings. First, there was a separation in the languages of science and religion beginning in the mid-18th century. Second, volumes using language at the nexus of science and political economy became more progress-oriented during the Enlightenment. Third, volumes using industrial language—especially those at the science-political …


Creating A Surname Lexicon For Historical U.S. Records, Spencer Keith Timmerman Dec 2023

Creating A Surname Lexicon For Historical U.S. Records, Spencer Keith Timmerman

FHSS Mentored Research Conference

We develop a method for creating a lexicon of all correctly spelled surnames in historical US records. We focus specially on the full-count 1850-1940 census records which include over 10 million unique spellings in the surname field. We use links across multiple census records to identify the correct spellings of the surname transcriptions.


Funny Business: The Decline Of The Comedy Film, William Liston Dec 2023

Funny Business: The Decline Of The Comedy Film, William Liston

Honors Theses

This paper concerns the role of economic forces in driving shifts in culture. To explore this topic, I look at the sudden and significant decline in the number of Comedy films released by Hollywood and argue that it is the result of changes in prices rather than changes in preferences. In doing so, I develop a theory linking the decline of Comedy films produced to the expansion of the international market for Hollywood films and illustrate this theory with a model. To support my theory, I use data I have collected regarding Hollywood’s output, the domestic and international film markets, …


Bitcoin And South African Stock Market Returns During Covid-19 Pandemic: A Test Of The Safe-Haven Hypothesis, Akaninyene U. Udom, Sopuru W. Nnamani Dec 2023

Bitcoin And South African Stock Market Returns During Covid-19 Pandemic: A Test Of The Safe-Haven Hypothesis, Akaninyene U. Udom, Sopuru W. Nnamani

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper tests the safe-haven property of Bitcoin for South African stocks using Full and Diagonal BEKK-GARCH models. The study uses the Johannesburg stock exchange Top40 index, and bitcoin returns data before COVID-19 (August 2018 to December 2019) and during COVID-19 (January 2020 to June 2021). The results show that bitcoin cannot be considered as safe-haven for stocks in South Africa since it is weakly correlated with stock and had a high volatility during the Pandemic. Therefore, the safe-haven hypothesis of bitcoin on South African stocks is not true for the period under study. The policy implication is that bitcoin …


Generalized Ratio-Product Cum Regression Variance Estimator In Two-Phase Sampling, Isah Muhammad Dec 2023

Generalized Ratio-Product Cum Regression Variance Estimator In Two-Phase Sampling, Isah Muhammad

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study develops a flexible and efficient generalized ratio-product cum regression type estimator of population variance utilizing auxiliary variable in two-phase sampling that incorporates the properties of ratio-type and product-type estimators. The properties of the estimator were derived using first order approximation. The theoretical conditions under which the precision and the flexibility of the estimator is better than some classical estimators are also provided. Empirical evidence from five real datasets suggests that the proposed estimator outperforms the classical variance, ratio variance, product, and exponential ratio type estimators in terms of precision and efficiency. The estimator can be utilized to provide …


External Debt Pass-Through To Inflation In Nigeria, Emmanuel A. Asue, James V. Ikyaator Dec 2023

External Debt Pass-Through To Inflation In Nigeria, Emmanuel A. Asue, James V. Ikyaator

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines external debt pass-through to inflation in Nigeria using annual data from 1981 to 2020 based on structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. The results reveal that an increase in external debt service leads to a significant depreciation of the exchange rate, which leads to a contemporaneous increase in inflation, while the direct response of inflation to external debt is statistically not significant. The impulse response confirms these results. The forecast error variance decomposition depicts that future values of official exchange rate depend on external debt, inflation and external debt service. The study recommends that the Nigerian government should …


Financial Inclusion And Poverty Reduction In Nigeria: The Role Of Microfinance Institutions, Okwudili W. Ugwuoke, Oliver E. Ogbonna, Aye-Agele Freeman Dec 2023

Financial Inclusion And Poverty Reduction In Nigeria: The Role Of Microfinance Institutions, Okwudili W. Ugwuoke, Oliver E. Ogbonna, Aye-Agele Freeman

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the role of microfinance institutions as a vehicle for driving financial inclusion and alleviating poverty in Nigeria using the EFinA 2018 household survey data. The probit model, propensity score matching, and average treatment effect methods are applied for the analyses. The study finds that financial inclusion driven by access to, and usage of products/services provided by microfinance institutions reduces poverty. The study recommends among others the need for increased access to microfinance products/services and an integrated poverty reduction policies that identifies microfinance institutions as a critical enabler


An Interview Study Of Pricing, Truman F. Bewley Dec 2023

An Interview Study Of Pricing, Truman F. Bewley

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Why do the prices of some products change little during business cycles while the prices of others vary wildly and tend to rise during economic booms and fall during recessions? In particular, why do the prices of some products not fall or fall only a little when the demand for them declines dramatically. It is not surprising that in highly competitive industries prices fluctuate with shifts in demand and supply, but what explains the stability of prices in markets where firms have more direct control of prices? These questions are central to an understanding of business cycles, and good answers …


Is It True That Immigrants Reduce Social Trust Or Reduce Institutional Quality?, Jacob Sorenson Dec 2023

Is It True That Immigrants Reduce Social Trust Or Reduce Institutional Quality?, Jacob Sorenson

All Graduate Reports and Creative Projects, Fall 2023 to Present

With a presidential race beginning in the United States, one topic that is sure to be discussed a lot in the news and by people trying to decide on who to vote for is whether or not the US should allow more immigrants into the country, and what the regulations surrounding these new entrants should look like. While this topic is usually only discussed during the campaign stretch, it isn’t new nor is it unimportant. For this reason, formal immigration research is abundant and used to inform the debate. This research has many strengths, but one area of focus that …


Evaluating Garment Fit Perception For Pregnant Women During 1st, 2nd, Or 3rd Trimesters, Nelima Zipporah Barasa Dec 2023

Evaluating Garment Fit Perception For Pregnant Women During 1st, 2nd, Or 3rd Trimesters, Nelima Zipporah Barasa

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

During pregnancy, women experience diverse physical body changes as the pregnancy progresses through different periods. It has been noted that anthropometric changes occur during pregnancy in a non-linear manner and can be measured using 3D body scanners at various stages of pregnancy. The changes are diverse, and impact pregnant women's garment fit differently as the pregnancy progresses through each trimester. Pregnant women have experience in dressing their pre-pregnant bodies in stylish garments and would similarly want to dress fashionably when pregnant. This has led to the need for garments that can accommodate body changes comfortably and fashionably without losing the …


Joining A Currency Union To Improve Financial Development And Competitiveness: The Case Of Slovakia, Etsub Tekola Jemberu, Bruce Dehning Dec 2023

Joining A Currency Union To Improve Financial Development And Competitiveness: The Case Of Slovakia, Etsub Tekola Jemberu, Bruce Dehning

Accounting Faculty Articles and Research

Enhancing competitiveness is a priority for nations seeking to promote economic growth. One of the critical drivers of a nation’s sustainable competitiveness is financial system development. However, whether joining a currency union has a positive impact on a country’s financial system development requires further investigation. This study evaluates the impact of euro adoption on Slovakia’s financial system development using a synthetic control method with lasso regularization methodology. A comprehensive index that captures the depth, access, and efficiency of financial institutions and markets is used to measure financial system development. Based on a donor pool composed of non-euro OECD countries, the …


An Intersectional Approach To Quantifying The Impact Of Geographic Remoteness And Health Disparities On Quality-Adjusted Life Expectancy: Application To Australia, Peter Lee, Steven J. Bowe, Lidia Engel, Erica I. Lubetkin, Nancy Devlin, Lan Gao Dec 2023

An Intersectional Approach To Quantifying The Impact Of Geographic Remoteness And Health Disparities On Quality-Adjusted Life Expectancy: Application To Australia, Peter Lee, Steven J. Bowe, Lidia Engel, Erica I. Lubetkin, Nancy Devlin, Lan Gao

Publications and Research

Objectives

An intersectional multilevel analysis of individual heterogeneity and discriminatory accuracy (MAIHDA) is a novel method for exploring the interaction between sociodemographic characteristics that affect health outcomes. This study explores the interaction between geographic remoteness and socioeconomic status on health outcomes in Australia from an intersectional perspective.

Methods

Data from a cross-sectional survey were matched with data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. To explore the effect of health-related quality of life on life expectancy, quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) was estimated through applying utility values derived from the EQ-5D-5L to life table …


The Effect Of Export-Related Measures On Indonesian Export Of Palm, Cpo, And Its Derivative Products, Edy Krismanto Sipayung, Christina Ruth Elisabeth Dec 2023

The Effect Of Export-Related Measures On Indonesian Export Of Palm, Cpo, And Its Derivative Products, Edy Krismanto Sipayung, Christina Ruth Elisabeth

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This study investigated the effect of Export-Related Measures (ERMs) imposed by the Government of Indonesia on the export volume and value of palm, Crude Palm Oil (CPO), and its derivatives products utilizing the export data of Indonesia to 194 destination countries in the 2011–2020 period. This study combined the dataset of ERMs from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) database and relevant Indonesian regulations. The results reveal that ERMs have a positive and significant effect on both the export volume and value of Indonesian palm, CPO, and its derivatives products. The price-raising effect or costs of ERMs …


The Determinants Of The Underemployment Gender Gap In The Philippines: A Decomposition Analysis, John Ichiro Arbole, Luisa Martina Gaston De La Paz, Therese Genota, Katrina Hernandez, Lawrence B. Dacuycuy, Maria Zunally Rapada, Krista Danielle Yu Dec 2023

The Determinants Of The Underemployment Gender Gap In The Philippines: A Decomposition Analysis, John Ichiro Arbole, Luisa Martina Gaston De La Paz, Therese Genota, Katrina Hernandez, Lawrence B. Dacuycuy, Maria Zunally Rapada, Krista Danielle Yu

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

Underemployment is a prevalent labor market issue around the globe. It reflects how an individual can be employed but is unable to work to their desired number of hours, receive sufficient wages, or fully utilize their skills, leaving them in precarious working conditions. Studies on underemployment and its gendered impact in the Philippines remains limited with most labor studies primarily addressing wage and unemployment. This study addresses this gap by identifying the factors contributing to underemployment and gender-based inequalities in the Philippines. Using quarterly data from the Labor Force Survey from 2012 to 2021, we distinguished between visible and invisible …


Behavioral Economic Factors In Collective Bargaining, Cristal Cardoso Sao Mateus Cardoso Sao Mateus Dec 2023

Behavioral Economic Factors In Collective Bargaining, Cristal Cardoso Sao Mateus Cardoso Sao Mateus

Masters Theses

The present study evaluated the effects of delay, stake, and hypothetical group size on labor valuation in the context of increasing and decreasing labor demand. Challenges in collective bargaining are associated with work stoppages, which can cause economic losses, lack of service, and worker stress. Participants were asked to value their labor given a set of conditions in two experiments. Participants in experiment 1 (n = 49) valued their labor in both increasing and decreasing demand context. Conversely, participants in experiment 2 (n = 139) valued their labor in only one of the contexts. Delay to changes, stake size, and …


Exchange Rate Responses And Volatility Spillover Effects During The Covid-19 Pandemic In Indonesia, Panky Tri Febiyansah Dec 2023

Exchange Rate Responses And Volatility Spillover Effects During The Covid-19 Pandemic In Indonesia, Panky Tri Febiyansah

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This paper aims to assess the impact of the confirmed COVID-19 cases, the timing of the outbreak, and physical measures on the returns and spillover effects of exchange rate in Indonesia. The model will be tested by the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (EGARCH) process and the spillover volatility index. The study discovers that the confirmed cases, outbreak news, and the implementation of large-scale social restrictions simultaneously contribute to a leverage effect on the volatility of a direct quote of Indonesian Rupiah to Australian Dollar, Euro, US Dollar, Singapore Dollar, and Great British Pound. To a certain extent, the heatwave …


The Effect Of Financial Inclusion On Food Security: Evidence From Developing And Developed Countries, Yasmin Yasmin, Sekar Utami Setiastuti Dec 2023

The Effect Of Financial Inclusion On Food Security: Evidence From Developing And Developed Countries, Yasmin Yasmin, Sekar Utami Setiastuti

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This study investigates the global impact of financial inclusion on food security, with a focus on both developing and developed countries. The study constructs a financial inclusion index using the Sarma method and secondary data sourced from IMF and World Bank databases. System GMM is employed as the estimation method due to its effectiveness in addressing endogeneity issues and its efficient and consistent use of instruments. The analysis reveals that financial inclusion has a positive and statistically significant effect on food security across all research sub-samples. In addition, the study incorporates interaction variables between financial inclusion and the COVID-19 pandemic …


Market For Patents, Monopoly, And Misallocation, Shang-Jin Wei, Jianhuan Xu, Ge Yin, Xiaobo Zhang Dec 2023

Market For Patents, Monopoly, And Misallocation, Shang-Jin Wei, Jianhuan Xu, Ge Yin, Xiaobo Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

The paper studies a possible “dark side” of patent trade in enhancing the market power of monopolists. We explore the different effects of China’s 2008 tax reform on patent innovations and sales across industries. In particular, although easier patent trade leads to more patent creation, the new patents are disproportionately connected to existing monopolists and are more likely to be acquired by them. Using an endogenous growth model with patent trade, we show that subsidizing patent trade could skew investors’ research to appeal to the monopolists, increase the latter’s monopoly power, and reduce social welfare. An optimal subsidy policy for …


Dynamic Factor Copula Models With Estimated Cluster Assignments, Dong Hwan Oh, Andrew John Patton Dec 2023

Dynamic Factor Copula Models With Estimated Cluster Assignments, Dong Hwan Oh, Andrew John Patton

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper proposes a dynamic multi-factor copula for use in high-dimensional time series applications. A novel feature of our model is that the assignment of individual variables to groups is estimated from the data, rather than being pre-assigned using SIC industry codes, market capitalization ranks, or other ad hoc methods. We adapt the k-means clustering algorithm for use in our application and show that it has excellent finite-sample properties. Applying the new model to returns on 110 US equities, we find around 20 clusters to be optimal. In out-of-sample forecasts, we find that a model with as few as five …


Extension Event Attendance Increases Adoption Of Weed Management Practices By Sports Field Managers, George Frisvold, Chandrakant Agme, David Ervin, Shawn W. Askew, Rebecca Grubbs Bowling, Jennifer Allen, James T. Brosnan, Multiple Additional Authors Dec 2023

Extension Event Attendance Increases Adoption Of Weed Management Practices By Sports Field Managers, George Frisvold, Chandrakant Agme, David Ervin, Shawn W. Askew, Rebecca Grubbs Bowling, Jennifer Allen, James T. Brosnan, Multiple Additional Authors

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

Data from a national survey of 348 U.S. sports field managers were used to examine the effects of participation in Cooperative Extension events on the adoption of turfgrass weed management practices. Of the respondents, 94% had attended at least one event in the previous 3 yr. Of this 94%, 97% reported adopting at least one practice as a result of knowledge gained at an Extension turfgrass event. Half of the respondents had adopted four or more practices; a third adopted five or more practices. Nonchemical, cultural practices were the most-adopted practices (65% of respondents). Multiple regression analysis was used to …


Three Essays On Energy Markets Using Dynamic Time Series, Zuyi Wang Dec 2023

Three Essays On Energy Markets Using Dynamic Time Series, Zuyi Wang

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Fall 2023 to Present

This dissertation investigates energy markets using dynamic time series and rolling panel approaches, aiming to enhance our understanding of their dynamics and interrelationships. The first essay focuses on the transfer of price bubbles between oil and gas markets. The findings indicate that price bubbles in the oil market have the potential to transfer to the gas market, with the probability of transfer depending on the gas price mechanism. The second essay delves into China’s natural gas market and specifically explores the dynamic relationship between imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline prices. This analysis utilizes a price discovery framework to …


How Commonality Persists? (Through Investors' Sentiment And Attention), Chyng Wen Tee, Raja Velu, Zhaoque Zhou Dec 2023

How Commonality Persists? (Through Investors' Sentiment And Attention), Chyng Wen Tee, Raja Velu, Zhaoque Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Studies on commonality generally attribute the variation in asset returns to the variation in order flows. In this research study, we show that order flows do not predict asset returns, rather their relationship have been static over time. Thus we model both returns and the order flows as endogenous variables, and use investors' sentiment and attention as exogenous factors via a reduced-rank regression. We provide empirical evidence to demonstrate that cross-sectional commonality in attention (sentiment) is linearly (nonlinearly) associated with both returns and order flows at the intraday level, while the sentiment and attention measures themselvesexhibit a nonlinear mutual relationship, …


Are Bond Returns Predictable With Real-Time Macro Data?, Dashan Huang, Fuwei Jiang, Kunpeng Li, Guoshi Tong, Guofu Zhou Dec 2023

Are Bond Returns Predictable With Real-Time Macro Data?, Dashan Huang, Fuwei Jiang, Kunpeng Li, Guoshi Tong, Guofu Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We investigate the predictability of bond returns using real-time macro variables and consider the possibility of a nonlinear predictive relationship and the presence of weak factors. To address these issues, we propose a scaled sufficient forecasting (sSUFF) method and analyze its asymptotic properties. Using both the existing and the new method, we find empirically that real-time macro variables have significant forecasting power both in-sample and out-of-sample. Moreover, they generate sizable economic values, and their predictability is not spanned by the yield curve. We also observe that the forecasted bond returns are countercyclical, and the magnitude of predictability is stronger during …