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Robust Testing For Explosive Behavior With Strongly Dependent Errors, Yui Lim Lui, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

A heteroskedasticity-autocorrelation robust (HAR) test statistic is proposed to test for the presence of explosive roots in financial or real asset prices when the equation errors are strongly dependent. Limit theory for the test statistic is developed and extended to heteroskedastic models. The new test has stable size properties unlike conventional test statistics that typically lead to size distortion and inconsistency in the presence of strongly dependent equation errors. The new procedure can be used to consistently time-stamp the origination and termination of an explosive episode under similar conditions of long memory errors. Simulations are conducted to assess the finite …

High-Dimensional Iv Cointegration Estimation And Inference, Peter C. B. Phillips, Igor L. Kheifets

Research Collection School Of Economics

A semiparametric triangular systems approach shows how multicointegrating linkages occur naturally in an I(1) cointegrated regression model when the long run error variance matrix in the system is singular. Under such singularity, cointegrated I(1) systems embody a multicointegrated structure that makes them useful in many empirical settings. Earlier work shows that such systems may be analyzed and estimated without appealing to the associated I(2) system but with suboptimal convergence rates and potential asymptotic bias. The present paper develops a robust approach to estimation and inference of such systems using high dimensional IV methods that have appealing asymptotic properties like those …

Displaced Worker Angst And Far Right Populism, Thomas E. Lambert

Faculty and Staff Scholarship

Background

Nothing causes more anguish and frustration than downward social mobility such as that experienced by less-educated workers and especially by displaced workers. Those who lose economic status lose more than income because they become so socially isolated that they are further frustrated through loneliness (Case and Deaton 2020). Hanna Arendt points out that lonely men are susceptible to authoritarian influence (1973, p. 475).

There is yet another aspect to the downward social mobility of low skilled men, namely that they are losing ground not only relative to social norms but also relative to the wages of low-skilled women. In …

Managing In A Regressive Legal Environment: Employers Need To Stay The Course Of Nondiscrimination, Michael T. Zugelder

Finance Faculty Publications

Federal law expanded civil rights and equal opportunity to all employees. Major U.S. employers have embraced the expansion by using affirmative action plans and diversity, equity, and inclusion policies. Concerns raised by a more conservative Supreme Court and its reversal of affirmative action in higher education, the recent enactment of regressive state laws aimed to diminish the rights of the LGBTQ+ community and invalidate affirmative action and DEI efforts should not be allowed to discourage the progress made. Employers can and should stay the course of expanded civil rights and equal opportunity in the workplace for all firm employees.

The Effects Of Ai On Export Cutoff For High-Tech Industries In China, Baobao Lou

Chulalongkorn University Theses and Dissertations (Chula ETD)

Given the surge in Chinese high-tech exports from 2016 to 2021, this paper presents the first quantitative estimation of the export cutoff productivity for Chinese firms. It explores the impact of AI on export cutoff productivity at the firm level by applying text mining, the WLP method (2009), and the ROC method to 958 listed high-tech firms in China. The study finds that the export cutoff productivity threshold for Chinese high-tech industries significantly increased following the adoption of AI. This indicates that AI adoption raises the export cutoff. However, this paper also finds that AI’s adoption also improves the chance …

The Impact Of Inward Foreign Direct Investment (Fdi) On Total Factor Productivity Growth (Tfpg) In Asian Countries, Jiao Lu

Chulalongkorn University Theses and Dissertations (Chula ETD)

This study examines the impact of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) on total factor productivity (TFP) growth in 23 Asian countries from 1991 to 2018. Using a dynamic panel data model, this study analyzes how FDI, together with GDP growth, capital and labor inputs, human capital, export growth, internet usage, and distance to the technology frontier, affects total factor productivity (TFP) growth. The results indicate that, while FDI remains significant, its impact on total factor productivity (TFP) growth is negative.The negative impact may be caused by the lack of sufficient human capital and absorptive capacity in host countries, along with …

Medical Expenditures And The Measurement Of Poverty In The United States, Luke Petach, David K. Wyant

Funded Scholarship

Using data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) we estimate the fraction of the US population that is health poor. A person is health poor if their income prior to paying health insurance premiums and out-of-pocket healthcare costs is above the poverty line, but their income net-of-premiums and out-of-pocket healthcare costs is below the poverty line. Because resources used to finance health insurance premiums and out-of-pocket costs are (A) lexicographically preferred and (B) cannot be used to maintain an individual’s standard of living, they should be excluded from official poverty estimates. Approximately 1% to 2% of the US population …

Late-Arriving Votes And Electoral Fraud: A Natural Experiment And Regression Discontinuity Evidence From Bolivia, Diego Escobari, Gary A. Hoover

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

This paper uses a unique data set and a natural experiment to test if electoral fraud can exist in late-arriving votes. On the night of the 2019 Bolivian elections, the official vote counting system that was expected to publish the results real-time, suddenly stopped. When it resumed, the results had flipped. We estimate several difference-in-differences specifications using a 2016 referendum and the votes of other political parties. We find that the extent of the fraud is 2.51% of the valid votes, sufficient to change the outcome of the election. Our results are robust to polling-station-level shocks common across 2019 and …

Economic Growth Before And After The Fiscal Stimulus Of 2008–2009: The Role Of Institutional Quality And Government Size, André Varella Mollick, Andre Coelho Vianna

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

Governments implemented fiscal stimulus packages to alleviate the global financial crisis of 2007–2009. Using annual data from 1996 to 2019, we investigate economic growth in a large sample of countries for pre-and post-Global Financial Crisis years. Our approach analyzes the interaction between institutional quality and government size (government expenditures as share of GDP), reinforced by threshold estimations. We document that economies react to government size depending on the quality of the institutions in question. First, fixed effects models indicate higher institutional quality has positive effects on growth, while government size—and its interactions with institutional quality—has negative effects. Second, the coefficients …

Hubris Or Talent? Estimating The Role Of Overconfidence In Chinese Households’ Investment Decisions, Jing Xu, Maroula Khraiche, Xi Mao, Xuan Wang

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

We document the extent to which overconfidence in one’s financial literacy (FL overconfidence) plays a role in households’ reported financial risk aversion and their actual investment behavior, using data from the China Household Finance Survey. We measure FL overconfidence by estimating the gap between people’s self-reported financial literacy and their objectively measured financial knowledge. Our results indicate that FL overconfidence is negatively associated with self-reported financial risk aversion. Additionally, FL overconfidence is positively associated with the likelihood of having a brokerage account, holding risky financial instruments (other than just stock), and a proportion of assets allocated towards risky assets. We …

A Stock Optimization Problem In Finance: Understanding Financial And Economic Indicators Through Analytical Predictive Modeling, Aditya Chakraborty, Chris Tsokos

Epidemiology, Biostatistics, & Environmental Health Faculty Publications

Given the significant impact of healthcare stock changes on the global economy, including its GDP and other financial factors, we endeavored to create an analytical prediction model for forecasting the annual percentage change of these stocks. Our model, which is nonlinear, incorporates five key discoveries. We focused on predicting the average weekly closing price (pWCP) of AbbVie Inc. (North Chicago, IL, USA)'s healthcare stock (ABBV) from 1 August 2017 to 31 December 2019. The stock was chosen based on the low beta risk, high dividend yield, and high yearly percentage return criteria. Alongside predicting the weekly stock price, our model …

Financial Literacy In The Era Of Artificial Intelligence. Towards Financial Inclusion. Opening Remarks, Łukasz Kurowski, Anna Szelągowska

Journal of Banking and Financial Economics

Financial Literacy in the Era of Artificial Intelligence. Towards Financial Inclusion. Opening Remarks

Euro-Denominated Credit Liquidity: Tracing Cyclical Phases In Global Finance, Mateusz Mariusz Mierzejewski

Journal of Banking and Financial Economics

In the past few years, set against the backdrop of pandemic mitigation efforts and the resultant inflationary spike, the macrofinancial landscape has undergone significant transformation. The tightening of monetary policy by global central banks in response to these phenomena has notably affected global financial liquidity, particularly within the realm of foreign currency lending. This article delves into the shifts in credit liquidity, centering on the Global Liquidity Index for euro-denominated loans across European Union nations over the last two decades. Through the application of the Fourier Transform, we analyse the cyclical patterns within the index and delineate the primary phases …

Betting On The Market: The Influence Of Match-Day Odds On Price Reactions Of European Football Clubs, Pascal Alterauge, Marc Mehlhorn

Journal of Banking and Financial Economics

This research investigates the relationship between football match outcomes, betting odds and the stock prices of publicly traded European football clubs, spanning from 11 February 2004 to 7 April 2022. Drawing data from 12 major European and publicly traded clubs, the study utilised betting odds as a key metric. These odds, aggregated from the Odds Portal, serve as a gauge for expected versus unexpected match outcomes. Preliminary findings showed a market value increase of 0.44% after a win and a decrease of 1.08% post-defeat. Moreover, deviations from betting odds predictions significantly influenced stock prices, with unexpected wins and losses resulting …

Optimal Empirical Strategy For Deriving The Spot Curve: The Case Of Poland, Piotr Bartkiewicz

Journal of Banking and Financial Economics

We use a proprietary dataset of daily quotations of individual bonds from the period 2005–2018 to assess the appropriateness of three common yield curve intrapolation methods: Nelson-Siegel (NS), Diebold-Li (DL) and cubic splines. Spot (zero-coupon) yield curves derived from the methods are used to price all securities in the sample in both in-sample and out-of-sample settings. The results highlight trade-offs inherent in any empirical strategy: between flexibility and in-sample fit, between overall fit and fit in particular segments of the curve. We look at both in-sample and out-of-sample. Cubic splines offer the best in-sample fit, but out-of-sample results indicate that …

Indirect Measure Of Financial Constraints: Evidence From Unquoted Innovative Smes, Katarzyna Prędkiewicz

Journal of Banking and Financial Economics

This paper examines whether companies’ innovativeness affects the availability of capital and, therefore, whether this group is financially constrained. It uses an objective, indirect way of measuring financial constraints based on the assumption that financially restricted firms only invest when internal cash flow allows them to do so. Therefore, the research was based on the investment-cash flow equation, more precisely the adjusted ECM model adapted to the SME sector. The companies’ innovativeness was measured based on a proprietary synthetic indicator covering a broad range of information on innovation activity. The research was conducted on a sample of 403 firms, including …

Journal Of Banking And Financial Economics 2024, 2(22)

Journal of Banking and Financial Economics

Journal of Banking and Financial Economics 2024, 2(22)

A Conditional Linear Combination Test With Many Weak Instruments, Dennis Lim, Wenjie Wang, Yichong Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We consider a linear combination of jackknife Anderson-Rubin (AR) and orthogonalized Lagrangian multiplier (LM) tests for inference in IV regressions with many weak instruments and heteroskedasticity. We choose the weight in the linear combination based on a decision-theoretic rule that is adaptive to the identification strength. Under both weak and strong identifications, the proposed linear combination test controls asymptotic size and is admissible. Under strong identification, we further show that our linear combination test is the uniformly most powerful test against local alternatives among all tests that are constructed based on the jackknife AR and LM tests only and invariant …

Equal Predictive Ability Tests Based On Panel Data With Applications To Oecd And Imf Forecasts, Oguzhan Akgun, Alain Pirotte, Giovanni Urga, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose two types of equal predictive ability (EPA) tests with panels to compare the predictions made by two forecasters. The first type, S-statistics, focuses on the overall EPA hypothesis, which states that the EPA holds, on average, over all panel units and over time. The second type, C-statistics, focuses on the clustered EPA hypothesis where the EPA holds jointly for a fixed number of clusters of panel units. The asymptotic properties of the proposed tests are evaluated under weak and strong cross-sectional dependence. An extensive Monte Carlo simulation shows that the proposed tests have very good finite sample properties, …

The Role Of Discrete Emotions In Job Satisfaction: A Meta-Analysis, Courtney E. Williams, Jane Shumski Thomas, Andrew A. Bennett, George C. Banks, Allison Toth, Alexandra M. Dunn, Andrew Mcbride, Janaki Gooti

Management Faculty Publications

[Summary] The relationship between emotions and job satisfaction is widely acknowledged via affective events theory (AET). Despite its widespread use, AET was not designed to address why specific emotions might differentially relate to job satisfaction. We utilize appraisal theory of emotion to refine AET and provide this nuanced theorizing. We meta‐analytically test our ideas with 235 samples across 99 883 individuals and 22 600 intra‐individual episodes. We test two approaches—specific emotion experiences (16 discrete emotions) versus general emotion experiences (positive or negative emotions)—and present empirical evidence of their similarities and differences with job satisfaction. Our findings suggest that specific emotions …

The Effect Of Gender-Based Occupational Segregation On Women's Earnings In The United States And Canada, Jadyn Grace Milius

Honors Program Theses

The gender wage gap continues to prove a contentious topic with some going as far as to question its existence. However, scholarly works continue to prove it is real and impactful. More fruitful debates have arisen about the source of this disparity in wages. This paper seeks to analyze one possible explanation for the pay gap: gender-based occupational segregation. I used OLS regressions based on women working full-time between the ages of sixteen and sixty-five to measure this. I find a negative effect of segregated occupations on women’s earnings across countries and years. On a similar note, the percentage of …

Compassion Cartography: Mapping The Psychological Landscape Of Altruistic Equity And Effectiveness, Kyle Fiore Law

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Psychologists and philosophers have often championed deliberative reasoning over empathy as a better approach to overcoming parochial biases and guiding altruistic equity and effectiveness. Advocates of the effective altruism (EA) philosophy even advise philanthropists to downregulate empathic responses to maximize the impact of their donations. However, recent research reveals that extraordinary altruists (XAs), such as those who donate organs to strangers, are driven primarily by empathy. This dissertation explores whether empathy necessarily impedes altruistic equity (impartial regard for others’ welfare) and effectiveness (prioritizing impact), revealing a more nuanced reality that challenges this perspective. Across two phases of research involving three …

Three Essays In Urban And Regional Economics, Bryan Khoo Wyng Wai

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

This dissertation "Three Essays in Urban and Regional Economics" contains three chapters which explore urban and regional economics. The first chapters focuses on examining the effect of stadiums on congestion; the second chapter on the effect of military base closures on the housing market; and the third chapter is a meta-analysis on historical instrumental variables.

The first chapter examines the effect of National Football League games on traffic congestion in Cincinnati, Ohio; Seattle, Washington; and Santa Clara, California during the 2018 and 2019 seasons. By linking sporting events to traffic congestion, this paper provides the mechanism for stadiums generating additional …

Essays On Urban Transportation And Health Economics, Alexander P. Tsiukes

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

The first chapter analyzes how Premier League games in London impact demand for the city’s bike-sharing system. Bike-sharing systems affect mode choice for within-city transportation. Using bike rental data from Transport for London, this chapter exploits the plausibly-exogenous timing of Premier League games to identify how proximity to stadiums affects demand for London’s bike-sharing system. Results indicate games at Stamford Bridge (stadium) cause a 24.36% increase in the number of bike trips arriving within 0.5km of the stadium, with effects diminishing as distance increases. In contrast, games at London Stadium decrease nearby bike-sharing use and may actually crowd out would-be …

Three Essays On Misinformation, Mistrust And Their Influence On Public Health Policy, Eli Kochersperger

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

In the first chapter I identify the impact of fentanyl exposure misinformation- namely, the erroneous belief that momentary, passive contact with the potent opioid fentanyl can be seriously harmful- on first responder behavior during overdose events, and on overall opioid-related mortality. I examine changes in opioid-related mortality following one particularly well-covered episode involving an Ohio police officer in 2017, wherein the officer appeared to experience an acute opioid overdose after touching what was believed to be fentanyl. Employing a synthetic differences-in-differences identification strategy, I find areas with greater media exposure to this misinformation exhibit marked increases in opioid overdose deaths; …

Legislative Redistricting And The Partisan Distribution Of Transportation Expenditure, Walter Melnik

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

I show that a state representative’s political party determines transportation expenditure in the area she represents. Previous studies of this topic consider party changes through election outcomes, which may be correlated with unobservable determinants of expenditure. To overcome this issue, I identify my estimates using Ohio’s 2012 state legislative redistricting, which moved many geographic areas into districts with opposite party incumbents. The Republican party controlled the state legislature and governorship over the period I study. I find that areas moving from governing party Republican to minority party Democratic districts received $3.4M (0.18 standard deviations) less annual highway construction funding than …

Unraveling The Effects Of Transfer Pricing Documentation Regulation: Indonesia’ Evidence, Anggari Dwi Saputra

Jurnal Akuntansi dan Keuangan Indonesia

To counter tax avoidance using transfer mispricing practices, Indonesia introduced a transfer pricing documentation policy. This policy requires taxpayers to be transparent with their transfer pricing decisions. Treating the implementation of this policy as a shock to the taxpayers, this paper examines how the transfer pricing documentation policy affects a firm's tax avoidance behaviour by employing regression discontinuity design and difference-in-difference. Immediately after introducing the policy, a regression discontinuity analysis results indicate a 0.9 percentage point increase in tax/sales among taxpayers obligated to prepare transfer pricing documentation. A 0.3 to 0.7 percentage point increase in the tax/sales of the treatment …

الدور الوسيط لسـلوكيات التسيس التنظيمي فى العلاقة بين الأنومية التنظيمية والانحراف التنظيمي: دراسة تحليلية لأراء عينة من الأفراد العاملين في مستشفيات جامعة المنصورة بمصر, سامر احمد محمد

Muthanna Journal of Administrative and Economics Sciences

أن الغرض من هذا البحث هو تحري عن العلاقة بين الأنومية التنظيمية وسلوكيات التسييس التنظيمي والانحراف التنظيمي لعينة من جميع العاملين بمستشفيات جامعة المنصورة، وبالاعتماد على عينة عشوائية طبقية من العاملين بالجهة محل الدراسة تم توزيع عدد (360) استمارة استبانة وبلغت قوائم الاستقصاء الصحيحة (277) قائمة بمعدل اســــتجابة (77٪)، وتم تحــليل البيانات باســــتخدام أســــلوب نمذجة المعـــادلة الهيكلية (PLS-SEM)، بواســـــطة برنامج (26.V AMOS)، (26. (SPSS V، وتبرز أهمية البحث من ندرة الدراسات التي اهتمت بتحديد طبيعة العلاقة الأنومية التنظيمية وسلوكيات التسييس التنظيمي والانحراف التنظيمي ووجود مشكلة واقعية تؤثر بشكل كبير على الأداء بمستشفيات جامعة المنصورة، وأظهرت النتائج النظرية وجود فجوة معرفية …

The Impact Of Isil And Covid-19 On The Financial Performance Of Banks Listed On The Iraq Stock Exchange: A Comparative Study, Farqad Faisal Jadaan Sallal

Muthanna Journal of Administrative and Economics Sciences

This study aims to demonstrate the impact of the ISIL crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic crisis on the financial performance of banks listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange by comparing the profitability ratios of the banks in the research sample. In order to achieve this aim, a sample of 10 banks listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange was selected for the period 2011-2021. Using annual financial reports for the periods before and after the emergence of ISIS. Before and after the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic, the profitability ratios were extracted (represented by return on assets, equity, and deposits). The …

Financial Contagion And Financial Lockdowns, Gabriele Camera, Alessandro Gioffré

ESI Working Papers

Extreme financial shocks often elicit extraordinary policy interventions that preclude financial activity on a large scale, for example as the 1933 U.S. “bank holiday.” We study these interventions using a random matching framework where the financial contagion process is explicit and the diffusion of the initial shock can be analytically characterized. The study suggests that there is scope for forced closures of individual firms or even economy-wide financial lockdowns only when firms are financially vulnerable and policy institutions are not well-functioning. Here, ordinary policy alone cannot prevent or sufficiently mitigate contagion, while complementing it with a lockdown or individual closures …