Urban Studies and Planning Commons^™

Modeling Landowner Interactions And Development Patterns At The Urban Fringe, Jennifer Koch, Monica A. Dorning, Derek B. Van Berkel, Scott M. Beck, Georgina M. Sanchez, Ashwin Shashidharan, Lindsey S. Smart, Qiang Zhang, Jordan Smith, Ross K. Meentemeyer

Environment and Society Faculty Publications

Population growth and unrestricted development policies are driving low-density urbanization and fragmentation of peri-urban landscapes across North America. While private individuals own most undeveloped land, little is known about how their decision-making processes shape landscape-scale patterns of urbanization over time. We introduce a hybrid agent-based modeling (ABM) – cellular automata (CA) modeling approach, developed for analyzing dynamic feedbacks between landowners’ decisions to sell their land for development, and resulting patterns of landscape fragmentation. Our modeling approach builds on existing conceptual frameworks in land systems modeling by integrating an ABM into an established grid-based land-change model – FUTURES. The decision-making process …