Urban Studies and Planning Commons^™

Regional Water Providers Consortium: Population, Housing Unit, And Household Estimates 2020 And 2021, Charles Rynerson, Christina Wei, Ethan Sharygin

Publications, Reports and Presentations

Water providers have an ongoing need for estimates and forecasts of the total population and the number of housing units and households within their service areas. The Portland State University (PSU) Population Research Center (PRC) has prepared annual population, housing unit, and household estimates each year since 2014 for the water service areas of the municipalities and water districts in the Regional Water Providers Consortium (RWPC), as well as the wholesale customers of the Portland Water Bureau (PWB) that are not Consortium members. Previous estimates used the 2010 Census as a baseline, with boundaries collected in 2013 and updated in …

Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2022-23 To 2031-32, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Charles Rynerson, Christina Wei

School District Enrollment Forecast Reports

This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the Oregon City School District (OCSD). The study includes analyses of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, discussion of recent and current housing development, and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2022-23 to 2031-32 school years. District-wide high, middle, and low forecasts for 2022-23 differ by how many how many of the students who left OCSD schools during the COVID-19 pandemic will return. Longer-run forecasts differ by expected migration levels and kindergarten …

Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecast 2022-23 To 2036-37, Based On October 2021 Enrollments, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Charles Rynerson, Christina Wei

School District Enrollment Forecast Reports

This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for Portland Public Schools (PPS). The study includes analysis of population, housing, and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, and annual enrollment forecasts for the District overall, for students residing in each of its high school clusters (HSCLs), for students residing in each school attendance area, and for students enrolled at each school. Enrollment forecasts were prepared under high, middle, and low scenarios for the District. Forecasts for HSCLs, attendance areas, and for individual schools are consistent with the …

Forest Grove School District Enrollment Forecasts 2022-23 To 2031-32, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Charles Rynerson, Christina Wei

School District Enrollment Forecast Reports

This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the Forest Grove School District (FGSD). The study includes analyses of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, discussion of recent and current housing development, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2022‐23 to 2031‐32 school years. District‐wide high, middle, and low forecasts for 2022‐23 differ by how many how many of the students who left FGSD schools during the COVID‐19 pandemic will return. Longer‐run forecasts differ by expected migration levels and kindergarten …

Salem‐Keizer Public Schools Enrollment Forecast 2022-23 To 2041-42, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Charles Rynerson, Christina Wei

School District Enrollment Forecast Reports

This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for Salem‐Keizer Public Schools (SKPS). The study includes analyses of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, summaries of current and future housing development within SKPS, annual forecasts of district‐wide enrollment for the 20‐year period from 2022‐23 to 2041‐42 and individual school enrollments for the 5‐year period from 2022‐23 to 2026‐ 27 and for 2031‐32. District‐wide high, middle, and low forecasts for 2022‐23 differ by how many how many of the students who left SKPS schools during …

Bend–La Pine Schools Enrollment Forecasts 2022-23 To 2041-42, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Charles Rynerson, Christina Wei

School District Enrollment Forecast Reports

This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for Bend‐La Pine Schools (BLS). The study includes analyses of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, summaries of current and future housing development within BLS, and annual forecasts of district‐wide enrollment for the 20‐year period from 2022‐23 to 2041‐ 42 and individual school enrollments for the 10‐year period from 2022‐23 to 2031‐32. District‐wide high, middle, and low forecasts for 2022‐23 differ by how many how many of the students who left BLS schools during the COVID‐19 …

Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecasts 2022-23 To 2031-32, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Charles Rynerson, Christina Wei

School District Enrollment Forecast Reports

This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the Tigard‐Tualatin School District (TTSD). The study includes analyses of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2022‐23 to 2031‐32 school years. District‐wide high, middle, and low forecasts for 2022‐ 23 differ by how many how many of the students who left TTSD schools during the COVID‐ 19 pandemic will return. Longer‐run forecasts differ by expected …

Centennial School District Enrollment Forecasts 2021-22 To 2030-31, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Charles Rynerson, Christina Wei

School District Enrollment Forecast Reports

In August 2021 the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) prepared high, middle, and low scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Centennial School District (CSD) for the 10‐year period between 2021‐22 and 2030‐31. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. To facilitate the boundary review process, PRC also provided forecasts of CSD students residing within each existing elementary attendance area, consistent with the middle series, to CSD …

Coordinated Population Forecast For Benton County, Its Urban Growth Boundaries (Ugb), And Area Outside Ugbs 2021 – 2071, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Cindy Chen, Ethan Sharygin, Paul Runge, Kevin Rancik, Deborah Loftus, Charles Rynerson, Huda Alkitkat

Oregon Population Forecast Program

How to Read this Report

This report should be read with reference to the documents listed below, which are downloadable as supplemental files below.

• Methods and Data for Developing Coordinated Population Forecasts: Provides a detailed description and discussion of the forecast methods employed. This document also describes the assumptions that feed into these methods and determine the forecast output.

• Forecast Tables: Provides complete tables of population forecast numbers by county and all sub‐ areas within each county for each five‐year interval of the forecast period (2021‐2071).

County Summary

Corvallis has a vacancy between 3 and 5%. The city …

Coordinated Population Forecast For Polk County, Its Urban Growth Boundaries (Ugb), And Area Outside Ugbs 2021 – 2071, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Cindy Chen, Ethan Sharygin, Paul Runge, Kevin Rancik, Deborah Loftus, Charles Rynerson, Huda Alkitkat

Oregon Population Forecast Program

How to Read this Report

This report should be read with reference to the documents listed below, which are downloadable on the Forecast Program website (https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts).

• Methods and Data for Developing Coordinated Population Forecasts: Provides a detailed description and discussion of the forecast methods employed. This document also describes the assumptions that feed into these methods and determine the forecast output.

• Forecast Tables: Provides complete tables of population forecast numbers by county and all sub‐areas within each county for each five‐year interval of the forecast period (2021‐2071).

Polk County has roughly 84,000 people in 2020. The economic base …

Coordinated Population Forecast For Marion County, Its Urban Growth Boundaries (Ugb), And Area Outside Ugbs 2021 – 2071, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Cindy Chen, Ethan Sharygin, Paul Runge, Kevin Rancik, Deborah Loftus, Charles Rynerson, Huda Alkitkat

Oregon Population Forecast Program

How to Read this Report

This report should be read with reference to the documents listed below, which are downloadable on the Forecast Program website (https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts).

• Methods and Data for Developing Coordinated Population Forecasts: Provides a detailed description and discussion of the forecast methods employed. This document also describes the assumptions that feed into these methods and determine the forecast output.

• Forecast Tables: Provides complete tables of population forecast numbers by county and all sub‐areas within each county for each five‐year interval of the forecast period (2021‐2071).

County Summary:

Marion county's economic base is government, agriculture, food processing, …

Coordinated Population Forecast For Lincoln County, Its Urban Growth Boundaries (Ugb), And Area Outside Ugbs 2021 – 2071, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Cindy Chen, Ethan Sharygin, Paul Runge, Kevin Rancik, Deborah Loftus, Charles Rynerson, Huda Alkitkat

Oregon Population Forecast Program

How to Read this Report

This report should be read with reference to the documents listed below, which are downloadable on the Forecast Program website (https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts).

• Methods and Data for Developing Coordinated Population Forecasts: Provides a detailed description and discussion of the forecast methods employed. This document also describes the assumptions that feed into these methods and determine the forecast output.

• Forecast Tables: Provides complete tables of population forecast numbers by county and all sub‐areas within each county for each five‐year interval of the forecast period (2021‐2071).

County Summary:

Lincoln County’s seat, Newport, is Oregon's secondary fishing port …

Coordinated Population Forecast For Linn County, Its Urban Growth Boundaries (Ugb), And Area Outside Ugbs 2021 – 2071, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Cindy Chen, Ethan Sharygin, Paul Runge, Kevin Rancik, Deborah Loftus, Charles Rynerson, Huda Alkitkat

Oregon Population Forecast Program

How to Read this Report

This report should be read with reference to the documents listed below, which are downloadable on the Forecast Program website (https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts).

• Methods and Data for Developing Coordinated Population Forecasts: Provides a detailed description and discussion of the forecast methods employed. This document also describes the assumptions that feed into these methods and determine the forecast output.

• Forecast Tables: Provides complete tables of population forecast numbers by county and all sub‐areas within each county for each five‐year interval of the forecast period (2021‐2071).

Linn County’s seat is Albany, a 15–20-minute drive from Corvallis and …

Coordinated Population Forecast For Lane County, Its Urban Growth Boundaries (Ugb), And Area Outside Ugbs 2021 – 2071, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Cindy Chen, Ethan Sharygin, Paul Runge, Kevin Rancik, Deborah Loftus, Charles Rynerson, Huda Alkitkat

Oregon Population Forecast Program

How to Read this Report

This report should be read with reference to the documents listed below, which are downloadable as supplemental files below.

• Methods and Data for Developing Coordinated Population Forecasts: Provides a detailed description and discussion of the forecast methods employed. This document also describes the assumptions that feed into these methods and determine the forecast output.

• Forecast Tables: Provides complete tables of population forecast numbers by county and all sub‐ areas within each county for each five‐year interval of the forecast period (2021‐2071).

County Summary:

Lane County's growth centers around the Eugene/Springfield metropolitan statistical area …

Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecast 2021-22 To 2035-36, Based On October 2019 And October 2020 Enrollments, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Charles Rynerson, Mac Cunningham

School District Enrollment Forecast Reports

This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for Portland Public Schools (PPS). The study includes analysis of population, housing, and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, and annual enrollment forecasts for the District overall, for students residing in each of its high school clusters (HSCLs), for students residing in each school attendance area, and for students enrolled at each school. Enrollment forecasts were prepared under high, middle, and low scenarios for the District. Forecasts for HSCLs, attendance areas, and for individual schools are consistent with the …

Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecasts 2021-22 To 2030-31, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Charles Rynerson, Mac Cunningham

School District Enrollment Forecast Reports

This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the Tigard‐Tualatin School District (TTSD). The study includes analyses of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2021‐22 to 2030‐31 school years. Typically, the most recent October enrollment count is used as a baseline, or “launch” year for enrollment forecasts. However, due to the COVID‐ 19 pandemic, October 2020 enrollment is an anomaly. Therefore, we used …

Lake Oswego School District Population And Enrollment Forecast 2021-22 To 2030-31, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Charles Rynerson, Mac Cunningham

School District Enrollment Forecast Reports

This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the Lake Oswego School District (LOSD). The study includes analyses of population, housing and enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide school enrollments for the 2021‐22 to 2030‐31 school years. Due to the unusual circumstances of the COVID‐19 pandemic, the base, or “launch” year for the forecasts is 2019‐20, not 2020‐21.

Oregon's Population Estimates Program, Huda Alkitkat, Portland State University. Population Research Center

Publications, Reports and Presentations

Presentation given by Huda Alkitkat of the Population Research Center at Portland State University, in which she gives an overview of the Oregon Population Estimates Program.

Oregon 2019 American Community Survey Highlights, Charles Rynerson, Portland State University. Population Research Center

Publications, Reports and Presentations

Charles Rynerson of the Population Research Center at Portland State University discusses highlights from the Oregon 2019 American Community Survey. Topics discussed include how race can be misconstrued in data, demographic trends, poverty in Oregon, and domestic migration.

Oregon Population Forecast Program, Ethan Sharygin, Portland State University. Population Research Center

Publications, Reports and Presentations

Ethan Sharygin, the Director of the Population Research Center at Portand State University, offers an overview of the Oregon Population Forecast Program, and discusses the process by which population estimates are generated and certified.

David Douglas School District Enrollment Forecasts 2021-22 To 2040-41, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Charles Rynerson, Mac Cunningham

School District Enrollment Forecast Reports

This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the David Douglas School District (DDSD) for the 21 year period between 2019‐20 and 2040‐41. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle series are also presented for the 21 year period.

Coordinated Population Forecast For Wasco County, Its Urban Growth Boundaries (Ugb), And Area Outside Ugbs 2020-2070, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Nicholas Chun, Kevin Rancik, Paul Runge, Mac Cunningham, Deborah Loftus, Charles Rynerson

Oregon Population Forecast Program

Different sub‐areas within Oregon’s counties experience different growth patterns. Those patterns combine to collectively determine county‐level demographic changes. Wasco County is comprised of two types of sub‐areas: urban‐growth boundary (UGB) areas (Antelope, Dufur, Maupin, Mosier, Shaniko, and The Dalles) and areas outside of those UGBs. In this report, we describe demographic trends and forecasts for the county as a whole as well as its sub‐areas.

Wasco County’s total population has grown slowly over the last half century. The exception to this trend was the tumultuous 1980s, related to both the deep recession that hit Oregon and to the sudden appearance, …

Coordinated Population Forecast For Washington County, Its Urban Growth Boundaries (Ugb), And Area Outside Ugbs 2020-2070, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Nicholas Chun, Kevin Rancik, Paul Runge, Mac Cunningham, Charles Rynerson

Oregon Population Forecast Program

Different areas within Oregon counties experience different growth patterns. Those patterns combine to collectively determine county‐level demographic changes. Washington County is comprised of three types of areas: areas within Metro’s jurisdiction, urban‐growth boundary (UGB) areas outside of Metro’s jurisdiction (Banks, Gaston, and North Plains), and areas outside of Metro and those UGBs. In this report, we focus on Washington County as a whole as well as non‐Metro sub‐areas.

Washington County’s total population has grown swiftly over the last half century, only slowing modestly during Oregon’s deep 1980s recession. Since 1990, average annual growth rates have slowed from above 3 percent …

Coordinated Population Forecast For Yamhill County, Its Urban Growth Boundaries (Ugb), And Area Outside Ugbs 2020-2070, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Nicholas Chun, Kevin Rancik, Paul Runge, Mac Cunningham, Deborah Loftus, Charles Rynerson

Oregon Population Forecast Program

Different areas within Oregon counties experience different growth patterns. Those patterns combine to collectively determine county‐level demographic changes. Yamhill County is comprised of two types of areas: its urban‐growth boundary (UGB) areas (Amity, Carlton, Dayton, Dundee, the portions of Gaston within Yamhill County, Lafayette, McMinnville, Newberg, Sheridan, the portions of Willamina within Yamhill County, and the City of Yamhill) and the area outside of those UGBs.

Yamhill County’s total population increased during the 2000s, growing at an average of 1.6 percent annually (see Figure 1). Small sub‐areas in northeastern Yamhill County—such as Carlton, Gaston, Lafayette, and Yamhill—experienced faster population growth …

Coordinated Population Forecast For Tillamook County, Its Urban Growth Boundaries (Ugb), And Area Outside Ugbs 2020-2070, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Nicholas Chun, Kevin Rancik, Paul Runge, Mac Cunningham, Deborah Loftus, Charles Rynerson

Oregon Population Forecast Program

Different areas within Oregon counties experience different growth patterns. Those patterns combine to collectively determine county‐level demographic changes. Tillamook County is comprised of two types of areas: its urban‐growth boundary (UGB) areas (Bay City, Garibaldi, Manzanita, Nehalem, Rockaway Beach, Tillamook City, and Wheeler) and areas outside those UGBs.

Tillamook County’s total population gradually increased in the 2000s (Figure 1). Some subareas, such as Bay City, Manzanita, and Nehalem, experienced faster population growth than the county as a whole, averaging between one and three percent growth annually. In contrast, Rockaway Beach remained relatively unchanged between 2000 and 2010, and Garibaldi lost …

Coordinated Population Forecast For Hood River County, Its Urban Growth Boundaries (Ugb), And Area Outside Ugbs 2020-2070, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Nicholas Chun, Kevin Rancik, Paul Runge, Mac Cunningham, Deborah Loftus, Charles Rynerson

Oregon Population Forecast Program

Different sub‐areas within Oregon’s counties experience different growth patterns. Those patterns combine to collectively determine county‐level demographic changes. Hood River County is comprised of two types of sub‐areas: urban‐growth boundary (UGB) areas (Cascade Locks and the City of Hood River) and areas outside of those UGBs. In this report, we describe demographic trends and forecasts for the county as a whole as well as its sub‐areas.

Hood River County’s total population has grown steadily over the last half century, with average annual growth rates exceeding 1 percent in every period except during Oregon’s deep 1980s recession and the Great Recession …

Coordinated Population Forecast For Columbia County, Its Urban Growth Boundaries (Ugb), And Area Outside Ugbs 2020-2070, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Nicholas Chun, Kevin Rancik, Paul Runge, Mac Cunningham, Deborah Loftus, Charles Rynerson

Oregon Population Forecast Program

Different areas within Oregon counties experience different growth patterns. Those patterns combine to collectively determine county‐level demographic changes. Columbia County is comprised of two types of areas: its urban‐growth boundary (UGB) areas (Clatskanie, Columbia City, Prescott, Rainier, Scappoose, St. Helens, and Vernonia) and areas outside those UGBs.

Columbia County’s total population steadily increased in the 2000s, growing at 1.3 percent annually (see Figure 1). Some sub‐areas—such as Columbia City, Scappoose, and St. Helens along the Columbia River Highway—experienced faster population growth than the county, averaging between two and three percent growth annually. In contrast, Prescott and Vernonia lost population, and …

Coordinated Population Forecast For Clatsop County, Its Urban Growth Boundaries (Ugb), And Area Outside Ugbs 2020-2070, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Nicholas Chun, Kevin Rancik, Paul Runge, Mac Cunningham, Deborah Loftus, Charles Rynerson

Oregon Population Forecast Program

Different sub‐areas within Oregon’s counties experience different growth patterns. Those patterns combine to collectively determine county‐level demographic changes. Clatsop County is comprised of two types of sub‐areas: urban‐growth boundary (UGB) areas (Astoria, Cannon Beach, Gearhart, Seaside, and Warrenton) and areas outside of those UGBs. In this report, we describe demographic trends and forecasts for the county as a whole as well as its sub‐areas.

Clatsop County’s total population gradually increased in the 2000s (Figure 1). Some sub‐areas, such as Warrenton and Gearhart, experienced faster population growth, averaging between one and two percent growth annually. In contrast, Astoria lost population between …

Coordinated Population Forecast For Clackamas County, Its Urban Growth Boundaries (Ugb), And Area Outside Ugbs 2020-2070, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Nicholas Chun, Kevin Rancik, Paul Runge, Mac Cunningham, Deborah Loftus, Charles Rynerson

Oregon Population Forecast Program

Different areas within Oregon counties experience different growth patterns. Those patterns combine to collectively determine county‐level demographic changes. Clackamas County is comprised of three types of areas: areas within Metro’s jurisdiction, UGB areas outside of Metro’s jurisdiction (Barlow, Canby, Estacada, Molalla, and Sandy), and areas outside of both Metro and those UGBs. In this report, we focus on Clackamas County as a whole as well as non‐ Metro sub‐areas.

Clackamas County’s total population has grown steadily over the last half century, with average annual growth rates exceeding 1 percent in every period except during Oregon’s deep 1980s recession and the …

Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecast 2020-2021 To 2034-35, Based On October 2019 Enrollments, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Charles Rynerson, Joshua Ollinger

School District Enrollment Forecast Reports

This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for Portland Public Schools (PPS). The study includes analysis of population, housing, and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the number of PPS students by housing type, and annual forecasts of enrollment for a 15‐year horizon, from 2020‐21 to 2034‐35. Enrollment forecasts were prepared under high, middle, and low scenarios for the District. Forecasts for attendance areas by place of residence and for individual schools are consistent with the middle district‐wide forecast.