Urban Studies and Planning Commons^™

Estimates Of Broad Age Groups By County 2017, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Charles Rynerson

Oregon Population Estimates and Reports

Estimates of Population Age Groups (under 18, 18-64, 65 and over) for Oregon and Its Counties, July 1, 2017.

Spatial Transferability Assessment Of A Composite Walkability Index: The Pedestrian Index Of The Environment (Pie), Gabriel Lefebvre-Ropars, Catherine Morency, Patrick A. Singleton, Kelly J. Clifton

Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper analyzes the transferability of a composite walkability index, the Pedestrian Index of the Environment (PIE), to the Greater Montréal Area (GMA). The PIE was developed in Portland, Oregon, and is based on proprietary data. It combines six urban form variables into a score ranging from 20 to 100. The measure introduces several methodological refinements which have not been applied concurrently in previous efforts: a wide coverage of the different dimensions of the urban form, together with the use of a distance-based decay function and modelling-based weighing of the variables.

Certified Population Estimates, July 2017, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Charles Rynerson

Oregon Population Estimates and Reports

Certified Population Estimates for Oregon and Its Counties. This item also contains estimates for Incorporated Cities/Towns.

Oregon Trail School District Population And Enrollment Forecasts, 2018-19 To 2027-28, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Charles Rynerson, Scott Stewart

School District Enrollment Forecast Reports

This report presents three scenarios of district-wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon Trail School District (OTSD) for the 10-year period between 2018-19 and 2027-28. Each enrollment forecast scenario relates to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle series scenario are also presented for the 10-year period.

Newberg School District Enrollment Forecasts 2018-19 To 2027-28, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Charles Rynerson, Scott Stewart

School District Enrollment Forecast Reports

This report presents a series of three scenarios of district-wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Newberg School District (NSD) for the 10-year period between 2018-19 and 2027-28. Each enrollment forecast scenario relates to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle series scenario are also presented for the 10-year period.

Closing Schools Is Like “Taking Away Part Of My Body”: The Impact Of Gentrification On Neighborhood, Public Schools In Inner Northeast Portland, Leanne Claire Serbulo

Urban Studies and Planning Faculty Publications and Presentations

This “politically engaged educational ethnography” explores the role that gentrification played in the disinvestment of inner Northeast Portland neighborhood schools (Lipman, 2009, 216). Inner Northeast Portland, Oregon, USA, a predominately African American neighborhood, began gentrifying in the mid-1990s. As investment flooded into the neighborhood, its schools paradoxically declined, losing students and resources. As longtime resident families were displaced from gentrification pressures, newer white, middle-class residents utilized the school choice program to opt-out of sending their kids to the neighborhood schools. Facing declining community support, inner Northeast schools were targeted for closure or redesign. Despite these challenges, the longtime resident community …

"Naturally Occurring" Or "Until Market Speculation Starts": Investigating The Precarity Of Affordable Rental Housing And The Potential For Displacement Along Planned Transit Lines, Lisa K. Bates

Urban Studies and Planning Faculty Publications and Presentations

New transit infrastructure is a double-edged sword for low-income renters: one the one hand, increased mobility supports access to jobs and critical services; but if transit-oriented development fails to include and preserve affordable housing, they may be pushed out by rising rents. The question of whether public investments spur gentrification and displacement have created intense controversy around planned transit extensions in our region. My research on precarious rental housing illuminates the specific mechanisms of housing displacement and challenges for housing affordability in the single-family/duplex and the large multifamily rental market. The loss of low-cost housing is occurring even without new …

Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2017-18 To 2031-32: Based On October 2016 Enrollments, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Charles Rynerson, Xi Yang

School District Enrollment Forecast Reports

This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for Portland Public Schools (PPS). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years and annual forecasts of enrollment for a 15 year horizon, from 2017‐18 to 2031‐32. Enrollment forecasts were prepared under high, medium, and low scenarios for the District. Forecasts for attendance areas by place of residence and for individual schools are consistent with the medium district‐wide forecast.

Preserving Housing Choice And Opportunity: A Study Of Apartment Building Sales And Rents, Seyoung Sung, Lisa K. Bates

Urban Studies and Planning Faculty Publications and Presentations

NOAH sales show precariousness of this rental housing at a regional scale.

• Active transactions of multifamily rental properties have been disproportionately NOAH. There have been over two thousand transactions of NOAH buildings in the Portland metro area from 2006 to 2017 — over 68,000 units of housing. These sales are accelerating, with over 20 percent occurring in just the last 18 months.
• Sales prices for multifamily rental properties have increased substantially, making preservation of affordable rents more challenging. Regionally, the average sale price increased by 78 percent between 2010 and 2017; during this period there was a 43 percent …

Active And Public Transportation Connectivity Between North Temple Tod And Jordan Park River Trail, Ivis Garcia Zambrana, Christie Oostema

TREC Final Reports

The project seeks to capitalize on existing community assets—several TOD stations and a regional bike and pedestrian trail system—by studying how these can be linked. The overarching goal of this project is to increase scholarship on networking safe routes that can encourage public and active transportation choices and thus, encourage a healthier lifestyle and advance sustainability. By expanding pedestrian, bicycle and transit connections to green space and offering the most potential for TOD, this proposal clearly demonstrates the greatest priorities of NITC. Moreover, nationwide, communities like Salt Lake’s West Side are in greater need of sustainable transportation choices that foster …

Portland Msa Economic & Population Outlook October 2017, Thomas Potiowsky, Portland State University. Northwest Economic Research Center

Northwest Economic Research Center Publications and Reports

NERC's binannual forecast of employment, income, housing permits, and house prices for the Portland MSA. The October release does not reiterate the population forecast from the April edition, but does include a long-run income forecast.

2017 Point-In-Time: Count Of Homelessness In Portland/Gresham/Multnomah County, Oregon, Uma Krishnan, Deborah Elliott

Publications, Reports and Presentations

The 2017 Point-in-Time (PIT) Count of Homelessness provides a snapshot of people who were experiencing homelessness on the night of Wednesday, February 22, 2017, in Portland, Gresham, and Multnomah County, Oregon. The US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) requires communities to count people living in emergency shelters, transitional housing or places not meant for human habitation (these people are collectively known as “HUD homeless”) on a single night (a “point in time”) at least once every two years. This enumeration is one way of understanding the levels and trends in unmet need for shelter and permanent housing within …

Following The Money From Investments To Outcomes, Robert Zako, Rebecca Lewis

TREC Project Briefs

While it’s accepted that mixed-use development promotes active travel, researchers don’t have a consensus on exactly how land use determines people’s travel patterns.

The research examined:

• The relationship between pedestrian travel and land use mix;
• The impact of land use mix on pedestrian travel;
• How operationalizing land use mix influences individual travel behavior

This work contributes theoretical and empirical tools for research and practice in transportation and land use planning.

Prosperity And Industrial Development: Review Of Concepts And Measurements, Emma Willingham, Peter Hulseman

Northwest Economic Research Center Publications and Reports

This report, researched and written for the Port of Portland by the Northwest Economic Research Center, summarizes local efforts to measure and improve regional prosperity, both within and outside of Portland, Oregon, and offers a framework for assessing varying industrial land uses with respect to prosperity. As part of this review, definitions of prosperity from a variety of sources are presented. The purpose of the report is dual: First, a context for community and regional economic prosperity is established via the review of existing definitions and initiatives, and secondly, NERC offers a framework for assessing specific uses in terms of …

Using Stories, Narratives, And Storytelling In Energy And Climate Change Research, Mithra Moezzi, Kathryn B. Janda, Sea Rotmann

Urban Studies and Planning Faculty Publications and Presentations

Energy and climate change research has been dominated by particular methods and approaches to defining and addressing problems, accomplished by gathering and analysing the corresponding forms of evidence. This special issue starts from the broad concepts of stories, narratives, and storytelling to go beyond these analytic conventions, approaching the intersection of nature, humanity, and technology in multiple ways, using lenses from social sciences, humanities, and practitioners’ perspectives. The contributors use stories as data objects to gather, analyse, and critique; stories as an approach to research an inquiry; narrative analysis as a way of crystallising arguments and assumptions; and storytelling as …

How Does Transportation Affordability Vary Among Tods, Tads, And Other Areas?, Brenda Scheer, Reid Ewing, Keunhyun Park, Shabnam Sifat Ara Khan

TREC Final Reports

Transit-oriented development (TOD) has gained popularity worldwide as a sustainable form of urbanism; it concentrates development near a transit station so as to reduce auto-dependency and increase ridership. Existing travel behavior studies in the context of TOD, however, are limited in terms of small sample size, inconsistent TOD classification methods, and failure to control for residential self-selection. Thus, this study has three research questions. First, how can we distinguish between Transit-oriented development (TOD) and Transit-adjacent development (TAD)? Second, how do travel behaviors vary between TODs and TADs? Third, how does transportation affordability vary between TODs and TADs? This study utilizes …

Assessing The Potential Of Land Use Modification To Mitigate Ambient No2 And Its Consequences For Respiratory Health, Meenakshi Rao, Linda A. George, Vivek Shandas, Todd N. Rosenstiel

Urban Studies and Planning Faculty Publications and Presentations

Understanding how local land use and land cover (LULC) shapes intra-urban concentrations of atmospheric pollutants—and thus human health—is a key component in designing healthier cities. Here, NO₂ is modeled based on spatially dense summer and winter NO₂ observations in Portland-Hillsboro-Vancouver (USA), and the spatial variation of NO₂ with LULC investigated using random forest, an ensemble data learning technique. The NO₂ random forest model, together with BenMAP, is further used to develop a better understanding of the relationship among LULC, ambient NO₂ and respiratory health. The impact of land use modifications on ambient NO₂, …

Source Of Down Payment, Institute Of Portland Metropolitan Studies

Metroscape

A statistical snapshot of the percentage of owner-occupied housing stock, by major source of down payment, in 2015.

Spanning The Region: A Survey Of Bridges In The Metroscape, Andrés Oswill

Metroscape

Bridges get us where we need to go. They also have character that contributes to a sense of place. Here we profile a selection of bridges in the Portland Metro area to understand the history and logistics of each bridge. When was the bridge built, how was it funded, who maintains it? The bridges we selected reflect the area’s wide variations in bridge style and management. Some of the bridges are county owned; others are run by a state or city transportation department. The bridges range in age, but all are inspected every twenty-four months. A bridge’s story offers important …

Cultivating The Technology Ecosystem: An Interview With Skip Newbury, Sheila Martin

Metroscape

An interview with Skip Newbury, President and CEO of the Technology Association of Oregon (TAO). He is a frequent speaker on technology trends and topics, economic development, public-private partnerships and civic innovation. Before joining the TAO, Skip served as an economic development policy advisor to Portland Mayor Sam Adams, where he helped create Portland’s first comprehensive economic development strategy in 16 years, recognizing software as a key industry cluster.

New Transit Developments: A Double-Edged Sword, Lisa K. Bates, Aaron Golub, Devin Macarthur, Seyoung Sung

TREC Project Briefs

Researchers analyze the projected impacts of a proposed transit investment on affordability and mobility in a Southeast Portland corridor.

What Do We Know About Location Affordability In U.S. Shrinking Cities?, Joanna Ganning, Jenna Rosie Tighe

TREC Final Reports

In late 2013, the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) launched the Location Affordability Index (LAI) portal. Their dataset uses models to estimate typical amount households spend on housing and transportation at the block group level, and calculates “H + T Affordability,” the percent of household income spent on these items. In our previous research, we analyzed 81 shrinking cities to determine how location affordability differs across various neighborhoods. Our results suggest that households in declining neighborhoods, as compared to stable or redeveloping neighborhoods, face the greatest H + T affordability challenges in shrinking cities. Furthermore, in declining neighborhoods, …

Impacts Of Bus Rapid Transit (Brt) On Surrounding Residential Property Values, Victoria Perk, Martin Catalá, Maximillian Mantius, Katrina Corcoran

TREC Final Reports

As bus rapid transit (BRT) grows in popularity in the United States, a better understanding of the mode’s impacts on land uses and property values is needed. Economic theory suggests, and literature has shown, that people are willing to pay higher housing costs to lower their costs of transportation to areas of economic activity. Does high-quality BRT service reliably provide such access and, thereby, increase residential property values? The hypothesis is that property values are higher closer to BRT stations, reflecting a premium for the access provided by the BRT service to various goods, services, employment, education, and recreation. There …

Homes Close To Fast Transit: The Value Is Still Rising, Victoria Perk, Martin Catalá, Maximillian Mantius, Katrina Corcoran

TREC Project Briefs

This research contributes to the relatively small body of literature on property value impacts of BRT in the U.S. by conducting a case study on Lane Transit District’s EmX BRT service in Eugene, Oregon, using econometric modeling techniques to estimate changes in property values associated with the BRT. The analysis is based on hedonic price regression analysis, where sale prices are modeled using several property characteristics that contribute to the market or sale price. The findings of this research indicate that the EmX BRT system does positively impact surrounding single-family home sale prices.

When Cities Shrink, Affordability Does Too, Joanna Ganning, Jenna Rosie Tighe

TREC Project Briefs

To better understand the real costs of housing and transportation in a declining urban context, NITC researchers implemented a household survey to determine whether the assumptions made in existing research literature and in the LAI regarding household expenditures and transportation accessibility hold true when analyzing shrinking cities—generally, cities characterized by a long-term loss in occupied housing units. The project was led by Joanna Ganning of Cleveland State University, who has conducted previous research into shrinking cities with the support of the NITC program.

A New Vision For Timber City Usa, Kerry Politzer

Metroscape

A look at the city of Willamina, Oregon, as it attempts to transition from a timber-reliant town to a sustainable future. Provides a brief history of the community and its economic struggles, and its attempts to foster economic development though tourism, arts and winemaking.

Scappoose, Liza Morehead

Metroscape

A brief snapshot of Scappoose, Oregon, discussing its history, growth and development, and a look to its future.

Planning Ahead For Livable Communities Along The Powell-Division Brt: Neighborhood Conditions And Change, Lisa K. Bates, Aaron Golub, Devin Macarthur, Seyoung Sung

TREC Final Reports

New transit investments can be a double-edged sword for disadvantaged communities (e.g., those included in environmental justice and Title VI protected classes). Transit investments improve communities’ mobility and access, and may improve health with reduced driving. However, there is also the potential for transit-oriented development (TOD) to spur gentrification and displacement if affordable housing is lost. Understanding transit corridor conditions and change with new infrastructure is important for learning how to mitigate negative effects and support inclusive communities with access to transit for lower-income households. The planning of a new bus rapid transit line along the Powell-Division corridor in Portland-Gresham …

A Simulator-Based Analysis Of Engineering Treatments For Right-Hook Bicycle Crashes At Signalized Intersections, Jennifer Warner, David S. Hurwitz, Christopher M. Monsere, Kayla Fleskes

Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations

A right-hook crash is a crash between a right-turning motor vehicle and an adjacent through-moving bicycle. At signalized intersections, these crashes can occur during any portion of the green interval when conflicting bicycles and vehicles are moving concurrently. The objective of this research was to evaluate the effectiveness of four types of engineering countermeasures – regulatory signage, intersection pavement marking, smaller curb radius, and protected intersection design – at modifying driver behaviors that are known contributing factors in these crashes. This research focused on right-hook crashes that occur during the latter stage of the circular green indication at signalized intersections …

Coordinated Population Forecast For Tillamook County, Its Urban Growth Boundaries (Ugb), And Area Outside Ugbs 2017-2067, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Jason R. Jurjevich, Nicholas Chun, Kevin Rancik, Risa Proehl, Julia Michel, Matt Harada, Charles Rynerson, Randy Morris

Oregon Population Forecast Program

Different parts of the county experience differing growth patterns. Local trends within the UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole.

Tillamook County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with an average annual growth rate of less than one-half percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). However, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Nehalem, Manzanita, and Bay City posted average annual growth rates greater than one percent at 2.5, 1.5, and 1.2 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period.

Tillamook County’s positive population …