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US Army War College

2021

COIN

Articles 1 - 2 of 2

Full-Text Articles in Public Affairs, Public Policy and Public Administration

Coin Doctrine Is Wrong, M. Chris Mason May 2021

Coin Doctrine Is Wrong, M. Chris Mason

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Counterinsurgency does not increase the legitimacy of, or support for, central governments engaged in internal conflicts. Recent research shows quantifiable degrees of government legitimacy, national identity, and population security are necessary precursors and accurate predictors of a government’s ability to outlast a civil uprising. Because the first two predictors—government legitimacy and national identity—can be measured and do not increase during a conflict, the probability of government failure in most cases can be accurately predicted when the conflict starts.


Toward Successful Coin: Shining Path’S Decline, Darren Colby May 2021

Toward Successful Coin: Shining Path’S Decline, Darren Colby

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

The rapid decline of the Peruvian left-wing insurgent organization Sendero Luminoso was not only the result of the arrest of its leader. An analysis of the precipitous weakening of the organization using two social movement theories finds other factors were involved in the demise of the organization as well. These factors—participatory politics, support for the military among the rural population, and alienation of the population by Sendero Luminoso—provide insights to effective counterinsurgency tactics.