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Forecasting Innovation Pathways For New And Emerging Science & Technologies, Douglas Kr Robinson, Lu Huang, Ying Guo, Alan L. Porter

alan l porter

New & Emerging Science & Technologies (“NESTs”) promise tremendous innovation potential, but this is coupled with enormous uncertainties and often many unknowns. This paper offers a framework to analyze NESTs to help ascertain likely innovation pathways. We have devised a 10-step framework based on extensive Future-oriented Technology Analyses (“FTA”) experience, enriched by in-depth case analyses. In the paper, we describe our analytical activities in two case studies. The nanobiosensors experience is contrasted with that of deep brain stimulation in relative quantitative and qualitative emphases. We close the paper by reflecting on this systematic FTA framework for emerging science and technologies, …