Psychology Commons^™

Hindsight Bias In The 2012 United States Presidential Election, Judith Gilbert

Modern Psychological Studies

Hindsight bias refers to the tendency for people to increase their confidence in a prediction after they've learned the outcome of an event; this is also known as the knew-it-all-along effect. The present study explored hindsight bias in the context of the 2012 United States presidential election. Participants were asked to predict various election outcomes one week before the election and then were asked to reconstruct those predictions one week after the outcome was known. The study showed strong evidence of hindsight bias and this bias did not depend on political affiliation, gender, or prior knowledge.