Psychology Commons^™

The Smallest Upper Bound For The Pth Absolute Central Moment Of A Class Of Random Variables, Martin Egozcue, Luis Fuentes García, Wing Keung Wong, Ricardas Zitikis

Martin Egozcue

We establish the smallest upper bound for the p absolute central moment over the class of all random variables with values in a compact interval. Numerical values of the bound are calculated for the first ten integer values of p, and its asymptotic behaviour derived when p tends to infinity. In addition, we establish an analogous bound in the case of all symmetric random variables with values in a compact interval. Such results play a role in a number of areas including actuarial science, economics, finance, operations research, and reliability.

An Optimal Strategy For Maximizing The Expected Real- Estate Selling Price: Accept Or Reject An Offer?, Martin Egozcue, Luis Fuentes García, Ricardas Zitikis

Martin Egozcue

Motivated by a real-life situation, we put forward a model and then derive an optimal strategy that maximizes the expected real-estate selling price when one of the only two remaining buyers has already made an offer but the other one is yet to make. Since the seller is not sure whether the other buyer would make a lower or higher offer, and given no recall, the seller needs a strategy to decide whether to accept or reject the first-come offer. The herein derived optimal seller's strategy, which maximizes the expected selling price, is illustrated under several scenarios, such as independent …

Economic Outlook 2010: Innovation, Connie I. Reimers-Hild

Connie I Reimers-Hild, PhD, CPC

This article discusses the importance of innovation to individuals and the overall economy.

Convex Combinations Of Quadrant Dependent Copulas, Martin Egozcue, Luis Fuentes García, Wing Wong, Ricardas Zitikis

Martin Egozcue

It is well known that quadrant dependent (QD) random variables are also quadrant dependent in expectation (QDE). Recent literature has offered examples rigorously establishing the fact that there are QDE random variables which are not QD. The examples are based on convex combinations of specially chosen QD copulas: one negatively QD and another positively QD. In this paper we establish general results that determine when convex combinations of arbitrary QD copulas give rise to negatively or positively QD/QDE copulas. In addition to being an interesting mathematical exercise, the established results are helpful when modeling insurance and financial portfolios.

Mindscapes And Landscapes: Hayek And Simon On Cognitive Extension, Leslie Marsh

Leslie Marsh

Hayek’s and Simon’s social externalism runs on a shared presupposition: mind is constrained in its computational capacity to detect, harvest, and assimilate “data” generated by the infinitely fine-grained and perpetually dynamic characteristic of experience in complex social environments. For Hayek, mind and sociality are co-evolved spontaneous orders, allowing little or no prospect of comprehensive explanation, trapped in a hermeneutically sealed, i.e. inescapably context bound, eco-system. For Simon, it is the simplicity of mind that is the bottleneck, overwhelmed by the ambient complexity of the environmental. Since on Simon’s account complexity is unidirectional, Simon is far more ebullient about the prospects …

Understanding Child Work And Child Labor In The 21st Century: A Focus On Malawi And Tanzania, Courage Chikomborero Mudzongo

Faculty Publications - Doctor of Psychology (PsyD) Program

Child labor is on the increase and this is exacerbating an already desperate situation in Africa. Past research has focused on which levels of determinants are most effective in influencing the decision on children’s activities. Using the Malawi Integrated Household Survey and the Tanzania National Panel Survey, this research seeks to unearth the factors that influence the number of hours that child workers and laborers work. I can conclude that the greatest degrees of change are at the individual level as child’s enrollment status is significant for child workers from Malawi and Tanzania and laborers from Tanzania. At the community …

Integration–Segregation Decisions Under General Value Functions: ‘Create Your Own Bundle—Choose 1, 2 Or All 3!’, Martin Egozcue, Sebastien Massoni, Wing Wong, Ricardas Zitkiks

Martin Egozcue

Whether to keep products segregated (e.g., unbundled) or integrate some or all of them (e.g., bundle) has been a problem of profound interest in areas such as portfolio theory in finance, risk capital allocations in insurance and marketing of consumer products. Such decisions are inherently complex and depend on factors such as the underlying product values and consumer preferences, the latter being frequently described using value functions, also known as utility functions in economics. In this paper, we develop decision rules for multiple products, which we generally call ‘exposure units’ to naturally cover manifold scenarios spanning well beyond ‘products’. Our …

Gains From Diversification: A Regret Theory Approach, Martin Egozcue

Martin Egozcue

No abstract provided.

Palliative Commitments, Leo Buser

Mahurin Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects

This project is a speculative fiction novel. The focus of my project is a futuristic palliative care treatment. The intended use if for terminal patients, and it can also be considered an alternative to terminal sedation. The theme of this project mainly came from Biomedical Ethics. This project is also influenced by economics and dreaming supplements. A section explaining the academic influences to the story is provided.

What Is The Optimal Subsidy For Exercise? Informing Health Insurance Companies' Fitness Reimbursement Programs, Molly E. Frean

Economics Honors Projects

Health care costs account for 17% of US GDP and many programs and policies seek to reduce these costs. This paper focuses on exercise as preventive care due to its immense physiological benefits. I model the profit-maximizing choice of health insurance companies to subsidize exercise and the utility-maximizing choice of individuals to engage in exercise using a traditional principal-agent framework. I then use principles from behavioral economics and psychology to critique these models and provide further insight into understanding our underconsumption of such preventive services. I end with an evaluation of current programs and suggestions for improvement using empirical findings.

Choice, Management, & Modification: Situational Context In Risky Choice, Nathaniel K. Decker

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

We sought to examine the potential differences between different types of risky decisions. While some decisions are easily represented as choices between future alternatives, other decisions may be better represented as the management of a personally owned situation. Schneider (2003) created the risk management task, which manifested these situated improvement decisions, and identified a unique pattern of risk preferences when compared to the standard gambling paradigm. To determine what cognitive processes might be differentially activated for each type of decisions so as to yield these risk preference differences, we incrementally manipulated the gambling paradigm to parse potentially influential elements of …

A Closer Look At The Relationship Between Superstitious Behaviors And Trait Anxiety, Brandy Futrell

Brandy Futrell

This study examines the relationship between superstitious behaviors and trait anxiety. Researchers randomly selected participants from college campuses for a 28-question survey measuring superstitiousness and the 20-question State-Trait-Anxiety-Inventory (STAI) to measure symptoms of anxiety. Results show a positive correlation between superstitious behaviors and an increase in anxiety symptoms. Significant gender differences were found; women scored higher on superstitiousness survey and the STAI-X2 test. Superstitious behaviors were a significant indicator for developing trait anxiety.

Looking At China’S Great Leap Forward From A Systems Perspective, Brandy Futrell

Brandy Futrell

China’s Great Leap Forward (GLF) campaign of 1958-1961 led by Mao Tse-Tung resulted in a horrendous famine that cost millions of lives. This paper examines the campaign from a systems perspective across the individual, group/societal, and regulatory levels. Looking at each level illustrates errors that explain how the GLF failed.

Law, Environment, And The “Nondismal” Social Sciences, William Boyd, Douglas Kysar, Jeffrey J. Rachlinski

Cornell Law Faculty Publications

Over the past 30 years, the influence of economics over the study of environmental law and policy has expanded considerably, becoming in the process the predominant framework for analyzing regulations that address pollution, natural resource use, and other environmental issues. This review seeks to complement the expansion of economic reasoning and methodology within the field of environmental law and policy by identifying insights to be gleaned from various “nondismal” social sciences. In particular, three areas of inquiry are highlighted as illustrative of interdisciplinary work that might help to complement law and economics and, in some cases, compensate for it: the …

Cultural Assimilation: The Political Economy Of Psychology As An Evolutionary Game Theoretic Dynamic, Atin Basu Choudhary, Dave Cotting

Atin Basu Choudhary

In this paper, we model the interaction between idiocentric and allocentric immigrants in two settings – in a society that is predominantly collectivist and in a society that is predominantly individualist. Immigrants, either allocentric or idiocentric, can also be entity theorists (fixed mindset) or incremental theorists (growth mindset). We use evolutionary game theory to model how the host country cultural environment places selective pressure on the cultures of immigrant populations. This has implications for how well immigrants assimilate into their host country. Our results show: (a) depending on the initial ratio of allocentric and idiocentric immigrants, assimilation is either complete …

Health Effects Associated With Foreclosure: A Secondary Analysis Of Hospital Discharge Data, Nancy N. Menzel, Sheniz Moonie, Melva V. Thompson-Robinson

Public Health Faculty Publications

Objectives. The purpose of this study was to assess the health effects of high home foreclosure rates in an area of the United States of America and the utility of hospital discharge data for this purpose. Methods.We analyzed hospital discharge data from three postal zip codes using the principal diagnosis for 25 Diagnostic Related Groups associated with stress. Descriptive statistics were used to characterize hospital discharge rates for each condition by year and zip code. To test for differences across time, the Cochran-Armitage trend test was performed. Results. Most conditions did not demonstrate a statistical change between 2005 and 2008. …

Willingness To Pay For Country-Of-Origin Labeled, Traceable, And Bse-Tested Beef, Kar Ho Lim

Theses and Dissertations--Agricultural Economics

While previous studies have investigated country-of-origin effect from various angles, it remained unexplored the extent to which Country of Origin Labeling (COOL) affects U.S. beef imports from specific countries. Using choice-experiment data, willingness to pay (WTP) for Australian, Canadian beef in addition to other enhancement attributes were estimated with a Mixed Logit Model and a Latent Class Model. The results revealed unobserved taste heterogeneity and important differences in the WTP between the imported and domestic steak. The Latent Class Model estimated the range of discount needed for consumers to switch from U.S. to Canadian steak was a range from $1.09 …

A Historical Review Of Five Of The Top Fast Food Restaurant Chains To Determine The Secrets Of Their Success, Alex Leon Lichtenberg

CMC Senior Theses

The primary goal of this paper is to critically examine five of the top nine US fast food chains to look at their history and to determine what factors have lead to their massive success. The companies that will be analyzed include: McDonald's, Taco Bell, Kentucky Fried Chicken, Domino's Pizza, and Subway. Similarities and differences of these companies are compared and contrasted throughout the paper and clearly demonstrate how each company has managed to capture and maintain major market share in their respective food categories. Areas that are examined range from product quality to to business models to consumer psychology. …

The Mythology Of Game Theory, Mathew D. Mccubbins, Mark Turner, Nick Weller

Faculty Scholarship

Non-cooperative game theory is at its heart a theory of cognition, specifically a theory of how decisions are made. Game theory's leverage is that we can design different payoffs, settings, player arrays, action possibilities, and information structures, and that these differences lead to different strategies, outcomes, and equilibria. It is well-known that, in experimental settings, people do not adopt the predicted strategies, outcomes, and equilibria. The standard response to this mismatch of prediction and observation is to add various psychological axioms to the game-theoretic framework. Regardless of the differing specific proposals and results, game theory uniformly makes certain cognitive assumptions …

Legal Promise And Psychological Contract, Tess Wilkinson-Ryan

All Faculty Scholarship

No abstract provided.

Age Effects And Heuristics In Decision Making, Tibor Besedeš, Cary Deck, Sudipta Sarangi, Mikhael Shor

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

Using controlled experiments, we examine how individuals make choices when faced with multiple options. Choice tasks are designed to mimic the selection of health insurance, prescription drug, or retirement savings plans. In our experiment, available options can be objectively ranked, allowing us to examine optimal decision making. First, the probability of a person selecting the optimal option declines as the number of options increases, with the decline being more pronounced for older subjects. Second, heuristics differ by age, with older subjects relying more on suboptimal decision rules. In a heuristics validation experiment, older subjects make worse decisions than younger subjects.

Social Norms, Discrete Choices, And False Dichotomies, Eric Schniter, Nathaniel Wilcox

Psychology Faculty Articles and Research

Eric Schniter and Nathaniel Wilcox comment on Bram Tucker's article, "Do Risk and Time Experimental Choices Represent Individual Strategies for Coping with Poverty or Conformity to Social Norms? Evidence from Rural Southwestern Madagascar", which "revisits a debate played out in Current Anthropology as to whether subsistence decisions are the result of individual strategy to cope with poverty and increase wealth... or conformity to social norms."

Governance-Default Risk Relationship And The Demand For Intermediated And Non-Intermediated Debt, Safdar Khan

Safdar Khan

No abstract provided.

Stigmergy 3.0: From Ants To Economies, Leslie Marsh, Margery Doyle

Leslie Marsh

No abstract provided.

Trust Or Bust?: Questioning The Relationship Between Media Trust And News Attention, Ann E. Williams

Ann E Williams

This article establishes the theoretical significance of media trust and explores the relationships between individuals' levels of media trust and news attention. Three distinct types of media trust are introduced: 1) trust of news information, 2) trust of those who deliver the news, and 3) trust of media corporations. The findings indicate that these different types of media trust relate to news attention in distinct ways, specifically when examined across medium. The theoretical significance of the findings are discussed and contextualized in light of an evolving media environment.

Information Projection: Model And Applications, Kristof Madarasz

Kristof Madarasz