Psychology Commons^™

The Hindsight Bias: Judgment Task Differentiation, Ross May

Psychology Theses & Dissertations

Recent hindsight bias research suggests that modern Cognitive Reconstruction theories that model hindsight effects as non-unitary phenomena potentially confound their findings by not differentiating between judgment tasks. This experiment tests a non-unitary approach of modeling hindsight effects that predicts confidence ratings and outcome likelihood judgments to be independent tasks, governed by differing cognitive processes and susceptible to unique patterns of hindsight bias. Predictions specify that sense-making theories accurately account for hindsight bias effects for outcome likelihood ratings and expectation based adjustment models accurately account for "I would have known that!" hindsight bias effects for confidence ratings. Utilizing a within-subjects, narrative …