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Full-Text Articles in Political Theory
Predicting Genocide And Mass Atrocities, Ernesto Verdeja
Predicting Genocide And Mass Atrocities, Ernesto Verdeja
Genocide Studies and Prevention: An International Journal
This article examines several current risk assessment and early warning models to predict genocide and mass atrocities. Risk assessment (RA) concerns a country’s long-term structural conditions (regime type, state-led discrimination, etc.) that determine overall risk for atrocities. Early warning (EW) focuses on short/midterm dynamics that can serve as triggers. The article evaluates contemporary RA and EW forecast modeling, and asks: How well can we predict mass atrocities and genocide? What are the strengths and limitations to current predictive modeling? Part I examines several quantitative (statistical) RA models and identifies several strengths and limitations in current research. Part II investigates a …