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Articles 1 - 2 of 2
Full-Text Articles in Other Political Science
Speak Clearly And Carry A Big Stock Of Dollar Reserves: Sovereign Risk, Ideology, And Presidential Elections In Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, And Venezuela, Anthony Petros Spanakos, Lucio Remuzat Renno Junior
Speak Clearly And Carry A Big Stock Of Dollar Reserves: Sovereign Risk, Ideology, And Presidential Elections In Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, And Venezuela, Anthony Petros Spanakos, Lucio Remuzat Renno Junior
Department of Political Science and Law Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works
Partisan theories of political economy expect that bondholders will panic with the election of a left-wing presidential candidate. The latter seems to be what happened in Brazil in the 2002 presidential elections. However, quantitative analysis of perceptions of sovereign credit risk in Argentine, Brazilian, Mexican, and Venezuelan presidential elections from 1994 until 2007 shows no real evidence of a link between partisanship and perceptions of risk, even if the left-right divide is further broken down into left, center-left, center-right, right. Instead, international and domestic economic fundamentals have a stronger influence on risk evaluations. Qualitative analysis of the individual presidential elections …
Bonds, Stocks Or Dollars? Do Voters Care About Capital Markets In Brazil And Mexico, Anthony Petros Spanakos, Lucio Remuzat Renno Junior
Bonds, Stocks Or Dollars? Do Voters Care About Capital Markets In Brazil And Mexico, Anthony Petros Spanakos, Lucio Remuzat Renno Junior
Department of Political Science and Law Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works
How does vote intention in presidential elections vary according to the economic conditions of a country, especially indicators of the financial market? Does the state of the economy, both its fundamentals as well as capital market, affect variation in candidates’ percentage of vote intention in national polls? This paper tests how economic indicators influence vote intention in presidential elections in two emerging markets: Brazil and Mexico. The presidential elections of 1994, 1998, 2002, and 2006 in Brazil and 2000 and 2006 in Mexico are analyzed using all poll returns for each electoral period and corresponding economic data. The paper finds …