International Relations Commons^™

The Place Of Nuclear Weapons In Russian Identity: An Ontological Security Analysis, Peter Ernest Yeager

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

On May 9, 2008, Russia’s Victory Day, four 14-wheeled MAZ-7917s drove through Red Square carrying Topol intercontinental ballistic missiles. This was the first time nuclear weapons had been paraded through Moscow since before the end of the Cold War. The previous August, Russia had resumed nuclear-capable bomber patrols, and in January, 2007, President Putin acknowledged Russia had begun to build new nuclear weapons. These remarkable events were met with little acknowledgement in the West, as if they were completely normal. Instead, they represented a major evolution in the bilateral relationship between the United States and Russia. Sixteen years of fitful …

U.S.-China Trade War: Phase One Agreement And Self-Enforcing Contracts, Hameedullah Hassani

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

Sino-American bilateral trade relations have increased significantly in the past four decades since China started its economic reforms in 1978. The bilateral expansion in trade has been accompanied by increased complexity and tensions, which emerged in the form of a trade war during the President Trump administration. After a series of tit-for-tat tariff increases, in an attempt to address concerns through negotiations, both sides reached a Phase One agreement. However, the commitments made in the agreement were not delivered. In my thesis, I use the “self-enforcing contracts” theory to analyze the status of Phase One deal. The examination indicates that …

Opportunities And Challenges From Major Disasters Lessons Learned Of Long-Term Recovery Group Members, Eduardo E. Landaeta

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

Natural hazards caused by the alteration of weather patterns expose populations at risk, with an outcome of economic loss, property damage, personal injury, and loss of life. The unpredictability of disasters is a topic of concern to most governments. Disaster policies need more attention in aligning mitigation opportunities with disaster housing recovery (DHR). The effect of flooding, which primarily impacts housing in coastal areas, is one of the most serious issues associated with natural hazard. Flooding has a variety of causes and implications, especially for vulnerable populations who are exposed to it. DHR is complex, involving the need for effective …

Can’T Let Go: Anxiety, Ontological Security, And French Foreign Policy Decision-Making During The Hollande Administration, Peter D. Langley

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

Why does France continue to intervene militarily in sub-Saharan Africa despite repeated commitments, both in practice and in rhetoric, to disengage and adhere to strict non-intervention? Although many accounts of France’s African security policy have been put forth, few have analyzed French foreign policy choices through the decision-making process itself, let alone exclusively applied International Relations (IR) theories to understand those decisions. Synthesizing a narrative approach with an ontological security interpretation, which understands states as having identity security needs on top of their physical ones, I propose an alternative framework for understanding France’s security-seeking, threats to identity, and how they …

A Qualitative Analysis Of The Relationship Between Cyberthreats And Democratic Backsliding, Amy I. Browning

Cybersecurity Undergraduate Research Showcase

Interstate conflict has developed beyond conventional tactics to include the cyber realm, making cybersecurity a key component of international relations and an integral part of state defense plans. Research in international security has included the analyses of the relative success or failures of particular cyberattacks. However, the instigators behind these attacks receive comparatively little attention, leaving a gap in knowledge for when, why, and where cyberthreats are likely to emerge. Recent analysis has found that democratic institutions are likely to hinder state-sponsored cyberattack initiation. A consideration that the latest wave of global democratic backsliding could be fueling cyberthreats must be …

The Philippines And The World: Which Country Do Filipinos Trust More And Why, Mark Gabriel Wagan Aguilar

Graduate Research Conference (GSIS)

Agreements between and among countries have been going on for centuries for the purpose of trade, security, employment, and peace among others, however, changes on these agreements do happen, for instance, when a new President gets elected and see a different direction for his/her country. When President Rodrigo Duterte became President of the Philippines in 2016, he have made it clear that he doesn't trust the United States of America, while expressing preference in working with China, in fact, in his 6 year term, he has never step foot on the country for an official visit, however, a new perspective …

Choices For U.S. Contributions To Nato: Stability Policing In The Age Of Multi-Domain Operations, Nathan M. Colvin

Graduate Research Conference (GSIS)

The United States Army claims they are a “force out of position” and must transform for large-scale combat operations (LSCO). The current narrative toward LSCO warfighting comes at the expense of lessons hard-won over decades of small wars and stability operations. The focus on LSCO is an oversimplification of the complexity and ambiguity of the future operating environment. The Army is trading clarity of narrative at the expense of a force balanced for both LSCO and non-LSCO operations. LSCO perspective assumes a worst-case scenario of war over more likely scenarios of continuous disruptions across a spectrum of conflict, which may …

Ddr, Cassandra Jagroop

Graduate Research Conference (GSIS)

Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration (DDR) has been a facet of post-conflict resolution since the 1980s. DDR seeks to address a wide range of issues varying from security to human rights, law, elections, and governance. One of the major issues arising from a conflict region are armed groups involved in the fighting and how to handle them. These armed groups represent the deep insecurity and lack of faith the population has in the state mechanism (Rondeau 2011, 654), thus in order to move ahead in the post-conflict situation the issue of armed groups needs to be tackled. The evolution of warfare …

Russia-Ukrainian War 2022: Battle Of Hostomel, Arthur Borsuk

Graduate Research Conference (GSIS)

On February 24, 2022, the Russian Federation began the active phase of a full-scale invasion of the territory of sovereign Ukraine. This invasion was preceded by the recognition of the independence of the quasi-republics in the occupied territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions (located in the east of Ukraine) and the introduction of a large group of troops into their territory. The invasion began with a massive missile and air strike against critical infrastructure, military units, civilian facilities and air defense positions. At the same time, the ground troops of the Russian Federation crossed the border in all border …

S-400s, Disinformation, And Anti-American Sentiment In Turkey, Russell "Alex" Korb, Saltuk Karahan, Gowri Prathap, Ekrem Kaya, Luke Palmieri, Hamdi Kavak, Richard L. Wilson (Ed.), Major Brendan Curran (Ed.)

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

As social and political discourse in most countries becomes more polarized, anti-Americanism has risen not only in the Middle East and Latin America but also among the U.S. allies in Europe. Social media is one platform used to disseminate anti-American views in NATO countries, and its effectiveness can be magnified when mass media, public officials, and popular figures adopt these views. Disinformation, in particular, has gained recognition as a cybersecurity issue from 2016 onward, but disinformation can be manufactured domestically in addition to being part of a foreign influence campaign. In this paper, we analyze Turkish tweets using sentiment analysis …

Assessment Of Spatio-Temporal Variations In Pm2.5 And Associated Long-Range Air Mass Transport And Mortality In South Asia, Md Sariful Islam, Shimul Roy, Tanmoy Roy Tusher, Mizanur Rahman, Ryley C. Harris

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

Fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) is associated with adverse impacts on ambient air quality and human mortality; the situation is especially dire in developing countries experiencing rapid industrialization and urban development. This study assessed the spatio-temporal variations of PM_2.5 and its health impacts in the South Asian region. Both satellite and station-based data were used to monitor the variations in PM_2.5 over time. Additionally, mortality data associated with ambient particulate matter were used to depict the overall impacts of air pollution in this region. We applied the Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope trend analysis tool to investigate the …

Racialization And International Security, Richard W. Maass

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

Racialization—the processes that infuse social and political phenomena with racial identities and implications—is an assertion of power, a claim of purportedly inherent differences that has saturated modern diplomacy, order, and violence. Despite the field's consistent interest in power, international security studies in the United States largely omitted racial dynamics from decades of debates about international conflict and cooperation, nuclear proliferation, power transitions, unipolarity, civil wars, terrorism, international order, grand strategy, and other subjects. A new framework lays conceptual bedrock, links relevant literatures to major research agendas in international security, cultivates interdisciplinary dialogues, and charts promising paths to consider how overt …

Thither The Russian Navy? Putin’S Navalization In A Historical Context, William Emerson Bunn

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

The Syrian operation of 2012 was the first successful employment by Russia of expeditionary warfare, narrowly defined as naval support to Russian (or Soviet) ground forces in a war away from their periphery (i.e., in a country that does not border them), from the sea. This was brought about in part by the development of two types of cruise missiles: advanced anti-ship missiles (which protects their expeditionary force from NATO naval units, enabling local sea control) and new land attack cruise missiles (similar in design and capability to the U.S. Tomahawk). In the past geographical, technological and political constraints …

Securing Russia: Seeking Ontological Security In The Arctic, Brian W. Cole

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia experienced an abrupt discontinuity in its sense of identity. This break in identity, and a more profound lost sense of self, creates a strong need to reestablish continuity. The need to regain that sense of self is strong and can supersede other concerns. Ontological security theory proposes that the need to maintain identity can outweigh physical security considerations. This study uses game theory methodology and the Arctic as a contextual example to demonstrate that ontological security-seeking actors are willing to sacrifice physical security. Today, the current conditions in the Arctic reflect a …

The Economic Efficiency Of Aid Targeting, Ariel Benyishay, Matthew Dilorenzo, Carrie Dolan

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

How efficient is the targeting of foreign aid to populations in need? A long literature has focused on the impacts of foreign aid, but much rarer are studies that examine how such aid is allocated within countries. We examine the extent to which donors efficiently respond to exogenous budget shocks by shifting resources toward needier districts within a given country, as predicted by theory. We use recently geocoded data on the World Bank’s aid in 23 countries that crossed the lower-middle income threshold between 1995 and 2010 and thus experienced sharp aid reductions. We measure locations’ need along a number …

The Second-Order Impact Of Relative Power On Outcomes Of Crisis Bargaining: A Theory Of Expected Disutility And Resolve, Tatevik Movsisyan

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

How does structure shape behavior and outcomes in crisis bargaining? Formal bargaining models of war rely on expected utility theory to describe first-order effects, whereby the payoffs of war determine actors’ “resolve” to fight as a function of costs and benefits. Value preferences of risk and future discounting are routinely treated as predefined and subjective individual attributes, outside the strategic context of bargaining or independent from expected utility. However, such treatment fails to account for context-conditional preferences sourcing from actors’ expectations of relative gain or loss. Drawing on a wealth of experimental evidence from behavioral economics, but without departing from …

Smart Power In The Iraq Surge 2007-2008, Russell N. Reiling

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation explores U.S. actions in the military “Surge” in Iraq from 2007-2008. Focus is on the entwined utilization of coercive and attractive power or smart power as an enabler of success and change from prior U.S. strategies in Operation IRAQI FREEDOM. The analysis is based upon an extensive set of interviews with operational participants in the Surge from across the Executive Branch. Results show that smart power was an important element of the Surge and its use facilitated success, but that doing smart power was not a simple matter of achieving some mix of ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ power, but …

Abandoned Allies: A Case Study Analysis Of The Special Immigrant Visa Program, Sarah Pedigo Kulzer

Sociology & Criminal Justice Theses & Dissertations

Employing a qualitative case study approach, the current study aims to critically analyze the U.S.’s use of the Special Immigrant Visa program in Iraq and Afghanistan by examining the individuals it serves, the agencies through which services are rendered, and the state’s vested geopolitical interests in the program. Engaging in active participation, I observed and interacted with those who work within, assist, or utilize the services of Commonwealth Catholic Charities’ refugee resettlement program, including case workers, service providers, and resettlement clients themselves. Examined through the lens of neoliberal harm, the theoretical frameworks of realpolitik and Simmel’s (1950) concept of the …

Environmentally Related Urbanization And Violence Potential, Christina Bagaglio Slentz

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

In contrast to historical examples in which urban increase is accompanied by the pull factors of wealth and development, post-industrialized sub-Saharan African urbanization patterns are characterized by a lack of economic growth, confounding experts. Simultaneously, African conflict scholars have observed a major geographical shift in African conflict onset, moving out of rural regions and into urban centers. Recognizing the effects of increasing climate variability and threatened agricultural livelihoods, this study hypothesizes perceived economic advantage in cities induces human movement with potential for over-urbanization dynamics that exacerbate civil unrest.

To investigate, a Panarchy theoretical framework of nested adaptive cycles is used …

Reinterpreted Europe: An Assessment Of Eu (In) Ability To Deal With Threats To The Rule Of Law, Huso Hasanovic

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

The European Union has been the primary promoter of democracy and rule of law to its neighbors to the east. Much of the early scholarship as well as official documents on the EU’s transfer of norms to the east have shown some degree of optimism and expectation of serious reforms. Fast forward to its contemporary experience and the situation is significantly more grim than anticipated. Major think tanks like Freedom House, The Economist Democracy Index, and EU Venice Commission Reports show a stagnation and reversal on the question of rule of law, despite the millions of euros spent on anti-corruption …

Institutional Context Drives Mobility: A Comprehensive Analysis Of How Academic And Economic Factors Relate To International Student Enrollment At United States Higher Education Institutions, Natalie Irby Cruz

Educational Foundations & Leadership Theses & Dissertations

International student enrollment (ISE) has become a hallmark of world-class higher education institutions (HEIs), particularly as global student mobility has grown exponentially worldwide in the last several decades. Although the United States (U.S.) has welcomed the largest numbers of international students since the 1950s, ISE shrunk by 10% in the previous three years from an all-time high of 903,127 students in 2016/2017 (IIE, 2019). A synthesis of research studies about international student mobility and enrollment highlights the significant role that academic and economic rationales play for international students who choose the United States. This quantitative, ex post facto study focused …

The Study Of Motivation For Defection Within The Intelligence Community: Hindering The Government's Ability To Prevent And Detect Defection, William Virgili

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

Since its inception, the global community has been marred by insecurities about the intentions of other states, which led to states creating intelligence agencies to engage in human intelligence operations. In defense against foreign intelligence services, the U.S. has implemented policies and procedures, informed by defection research, to prevent and detect defection. However, this leads to the question does current research on motivation for defection adequately inform government policies and procedures to prevent and detect defection within the intelligence community? To interrogate this question, I present an in-depth analysis of motivation; the ways in which these conclusions have or have …

Governance Impact On Public-Private Partnerships For Member Countries Of The World Bank Group, Kouliga Koala

School of Public Service Theses & Dissertations

Member countries of the World Bank Group (WBG) increasingly turn to public-private partnerships (PPPs) to finance their transportation infrastructure projects due to the financial burden of undertaking big projects on their own. The World Bank coordinates the PPPs between investors and recipient countries. PPPs are expected to produce positive outcomes that respond to policy objectives. However, the outcomes and benefits of PPPs not only depend on several factors, but more importantly on how those factors interact with one another to yield the expected outcomes. This dissertation has identified good governance, PPP governance, and PPP outcome as the key concepts in …

Can The Us And Europe Contain Russian Power In The European Energy Market? A Game Theoretic Approach, Jesse Richman, Nurullah Ayyilmaz

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

The Russian history of politicization of natural gas supplies led Europe to seek alternatives. US LNG is considered to be a viable alternative for Europe, which positioned the US as a strong competitor against Russia. In a game theoretic approach, we model this strategic decision-making process in simultaneous-move and sequential games. Our findings indicate a mixed strategy equilibrium: Europe cannot commit to diversify in the face of Russian advantages, and Russia cannot fully resist the temptation to politicize its supplies to Europe. The US might attempt to intervene in the European commitment problem through implementing sanctions on Russian gas sales. …

The Messy Nuclear Landscape: Using Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping To Explore Plausible Nuclear Disarmament Scenarios, Ryan M. Nixon

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

Nuclear weapons are seemingly permanent fixtures in international relations. Although nuclear abolitionists and actors within the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have taken significant steps towards designing a world without nuclear weapons, the longstanding realist logic that suggests nuclear disarmament is nonviable has born more fruit. On the other hand, some proponents of realism have suggested global nuclear disarmament is feasible, given that certain international instabilities are stabilized and that special care is taken during diplomatic negotiations. This presents an opportunity to test these predictions using fuzzy cognitive mapping, a computational modeling technique that identifies …

When The Wind Blows: An Evaluation Of Key Factors That Enabled The Proliferation Of Wind Energy Generation In The United States Through 2016, Mary Sodini Bell

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

Increasing CO₂ emissions have led to extreme weather phenomena labeled as climate change. Energy consumption and the burning of fossil fuels are primary contributors to climate change, which necessitates finding ways to decrease fossil fuel consumption critical to preserving the planet while helping nations reduce dependence on costly fossil fuels. Renewable energy is one part of the solution to reducing CO₂ emissions. Wind energy is the fastest growing form of renewable energy across the world and within the U.S., but the key factors that enabled the U.S. wind industry to grow from zero installed capacity at the beginning …

A Cross-Disciplinary Approach To The Maritime Security Risk Of Piracy And Lessons Learned From Agent-Based Modeling, Joanne Marie Fish

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation takes a cross-disciplinary approach to understanding pirate activity. Maritime piracy presents a dynamic ever-evolving problem. In today’s globalized world, contemporary maritime piracy presents a transnational threat. It is a complex socio-economic and political problem which the modern world considers to be criminal activity. Like all complex problems it must be deconstructed to fully comprehend it.

All criminal activity, maritime piracy included, has certain elements of supply and demand. For the activity to occur there must be a certain level, or supply, of targets. At the same time, we can posit that there must be a lack of other …

Acquiring The Tools Of Grand Strategy: The Us Navy's Lcs As A Case Study, Sean P. Murphy

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

Grand strategy is about how states allocate resources and employ these resources to achieve desired political conditions. In examining the match between desired ends and available ways and means, an often-overlooked subject is how the specific tools of grand strategy are forged. One of these tools is the Littoral Combat Ship (LCS), a Major Defense Acquisition Program (MDAP) that started in 2000. LCS remains a controversial and often unpopular program with many stakeholders to this day. This study examines how the means of grand strategy, in this case a new ship class, are acquired. It also looks at how these …

Diffusion Of Renewable Energy Policies, Khatera Alizada

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

This study examines the global diffusion of renewable energy policies: feed-in tariffs (FIT) and renewable portfolio standards (RPS). Existing studies of policy diffusion have failed to differentiate between four possible mechanisms of policy diffusion: emulation, suasion, learning and competition. To test these competing explanations, the study uses a mixed-method research design that combines statistical analysis of time-series cross-sectional data with an agent-based model of diffusion processes. The findings of the statistical analysis show strong support for the suasion (European Union Membership, Clean Development Mechanisms) and emulation mechanisms (cultural similarity or common language) in the diffusion of FIT. In the diffusion …

Culture And Military Effectiveness: How Societal Traits Influence Battle Outcomes, Eric Stephen Fowler

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

What must states do to ensure victory on the field of battle? Conventional scholarship claims that a number of material and institutional factors significantly affect a nation’s ability to generate military power. Recent studies suggest that other factors, including levels of education, civil-military relations, and western culture also play an important role. This new line of logic is important because these factors tend to be glaringly absent from rigorous concepts of military power. The principle finding of this study is that culture matters and that it matters more than originally thought. Culture is admittedly complex, intangible, and difficult to count, …