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Full-Text Articles in American Politics
Explaining Seat Changes In The U.S. House Of Representatives, 1950-1998, Brian Newman, Charles Ostrom
Explaining Seat Changes In The U.S. House Of Representatives, 1950-1998, Brian Newman, Charles Ostrom
Brian Newman
Recent U.S. House elections have challenged existing models of congressional elections, raising the question of whether or not processes thought to govern previous elections are still at work. Taking Marra and Ostrom's (1989) model of congressional elections as representative of extant theoretical perspectives and testing it against recent elections, we find that the model fails. We augment Marra and Ostrom's model with new insights, constructing a model that explains elections from 1950 to 1998. We find that, although presidential approval ratings and major political events continue to drive congressional elections, the distribution of open seats must also be taken into …
Bill Clinton’S Approval Ratings: The More Things Change, The More They Stay The Same, Brian Newman
Bill Clinton’S Approval Ratings: The More Things Change, The More They Stay The Same, Brian Newman
Brian Newman
Over the past three decades, political scientists have been developing general models of presidential approval ratings, seeking to determine the structure of aggregate approval. This endeavor has culminated in the broad claim that "peace, prosperity, and probity" drive the public's approval. The unprecedented events of the Clinton Presidency, especially his high approval during and after impeachment, present a strong challenge to this model. However, the existing model explains Clinton's approval remarkably well, suggesting that the public punished and rewarded him for the state of the economy, major political events, and his integrity. Passing this strong test constitutes considerable support for …