Political Science Commons^™

The Effect Of Belief Of Victory On Third-Party Vote Share: Duverger's Law & Why Evan Mcmullin Lost Utah In 2016, John Geilman

Undergraduate Honors Theses

A key reason Duverger’s Law is valid is a voter’s belief that a third-party does not have a chance at winning an election in a “first past the post” electoral system. Duverger’s Law has traditionally been explained through two reasons—a mechanical factor and a psychological factor. The mechanical factor focuses on aspects of electoral systems that work against third parties, while the psychological factor focuses on what voters think and feel about third parties. In the 2016 presidential election in the United States, voters in the state of Utah demonstrated that their perception of the electability of a third-party candidate …