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"Gravity Models" Applied To Projections For New Casinos: Techniques And Results, Will E. Cummings
"Gravity Models" Applied To Projections For New Casinos: Techniques And Results, Will E. Cummings
International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking
All developers of new casinos prepare, or have prepared for them, projections for the likely gaming-revenue performance of those casinos; in many cases; regulatory authorities in North America also require or commission independent third-party assessments of such performance. These projections are very frequently based on "gravity models," applying techniques pioneered by Reilly and Huff to analyze other retail activities in relation to the geographic distribution of competitors and potential customers. In this paper, I review roughly 80 examples of such applications from recent casino-licensing procedures in the U.S., and compare their results.