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Full-Text Articles in Geography
Short Warm Distribution Tails Accelerate The Increase Of Humid-Heat Extremes Under Global Warming, Paul Loikith, Yianna Sotirios Bekris, J. D. Neelin
Short Warm Distribution Tails Accelerate The Increase Of Humid-Heat Extremes Under Global Warming, Paul Loikith, Yianna Sotirios Bekris, J. D. Neelin
Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations
Humid-heat extremes threaten human health and are increasing in frequency with global warming, so elucidating factors affecting their rate of change is critical. We investigate the role of wet-bulb temperature (TW) frequency distribution tail shape on the rate of increase in extreme TW threshold exceedances under 2°C global warming. Results indicate that non-Gaussian TW distribution tails are common worldwide across extensive, spatially coherent regions. More rapid increases in the number of days exceeding the historical 95th percentile are projected in locations with shorter-than-Gaussian warm side tails. Asymmetry in the specific humidity distribution, one component of TW, is more closely correlated …
Diagnosing Non-Gaussian Temperature Distribution Tails Using Back-Trajectory Analysis, A. J. Catalano, P. C. Loikith, J. D. Neelin
Diagnosing Non-Gaussian Temperature Distribution Tails Using Back-Trajectory Analysis, A. J. Catalano, P. C. Loikith, J. D. Neelin
Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations
Coherent regions exhibiting non-Gaussian 2-m temperature distribution tails are present across the globe, indicating changes in extreme temperatures under future warming may manifest in more complex ways than were the underlying distributions symmetric about the mean. To further the understanding of physical processes that govern temperature distribution tail shape, this work utilizes a back-trajectory model to diagnose mechanisms for extreme daily mean temperature development at select extratropical locations exhibiting non-Gaussian tails. Although characteristics such as direction, distance, and temperature evolution vary among back-trajectories associated with extreme temperature days, results reveal principal pathways for air parcel propagation associated with preferred patterns …
Short-Tailed Temperature Distributions Over North America And Implications For Future Changes In Extremes, Paul C. Loikith, J. David Neelin
Short-Tailed Temperature Distributions Over North America And Implications For Future Changes In Extremes, Paul C. Loikith, J. David Neelin
Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations
Some regions of North America exhibit nonnormal temperature distributions. Shorter-than-Gaussian warm tails are a special subset of these cases, with potentially meaningful implications for future changes in extreme warm temperatures under anthropogenic global warming. Locations exhibiting shorter-than-Gaussian warm tails would experience a greater increase in extreme warm temperature exceedances than a location with a Gaussian or long warm-side tail under a simple uniform warm shift in the distribution. Here we identify regions exhibiting such behavior over North America and demonstrate the effect of a simple warm shift on changes in extreme warm temperature exceedances. Some locations exceed the 95th percentile …