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Full-Text Articles in Economics
Do Price Controlled Basic Food Items Affect Inflation In Fiji?, Joel Abraham, Akeneta Vonoyauyau, Seema W. Narayan Prof.
Do Price Controlled Basic Food Items Affect Inflation In Fiji?, Joel Abraham, Akeneta Vonoyauyau, Seema W. Narayan Prof.
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking
This note examines the effects of price-controlled perishable food items on inflation in Fiji. We study year-on-year changes in headline inflation and disaggregate measures of inflation in the form of food and non-alcoholic beverages and vegetables against three perishable food items used daily by Fijian households, namely, potatoes, onion, and garlic over the period 2019:01-2022:08. We also follow Narayan et al (2023), allowing for the lags and leads framework in examining Fiji’s inflation. Our results show that the leads and lags model explain 22%, 27% and 65% of headline, food and non-alcoholic beverages and vegetables inflation rates, respectively, over the …
Inflation, Monetary Policy, And The Sacrifice Ratio, Leef H. Dierks
Inflation, Monetary Policy, And The Sacrifice Ratio, Leef H. Dierks
CBER Conference
Motivated by the 2022 uptick in headline inflation and the marked shift towards globally more restrictive monetary policies, this paper examines the sacrifice ratio, i.e., the percentage cost of actual production lost to every one percentage point decrease in (trend) inflation, for selected Southeast Asian economies. Results indicate that upon adopting a contractive monetary policy, GDP growth dropped by up to 0.5 per cent, confirming that monetary authorities’ disinflationary policies typically trigger declines in both output and employment. However, as even minor adjustments to the way of determining the sacrifice ratio lead to varying results, caution ought to be applied …
Monetary Policy And Stagflation: A Trade-Off Between Price Stability And Economic Growth?, Leef H. Dierks
Monetary Policy And Stagflation: A Trade-Off Between Price Stability And Economic Growth?, Leef H. Dierks
Journal of New Finance
Several euro area economies are likely to experience a stagflation in 2023. This situation is characterized by a combination of economic stagnation, i.e., GDP growth falling below its potential growth rate, and a pronounced increase in inflation as was last observed during the 1970s’ oil crisis. A stagflation presents the European Central Bank with a dilemma. Should it further tighten its monetary policy in an attempt to align euro area inflation (expectations) with its target of two per cent p.a. in the medium term? Or should the ECB re-adopt a more accommodative stance so as to stimulate economic growth in …
Reflections On Inflation: How Bad Has It Been?, Jesus Felipe
Reflections On Inflation: How Bad Has It Been?, Jesus Felipe
Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)
THE increase in prices that countries have experienced since March 2022 has brought old fears about the deleterious impact of inflation. It is true that prices increased after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and this affected a series of commodities that are imported. Yet, it is important to understand how much prices have increased, the nature of inflation we have experienced, and the reaction of central banks.
Revisiting The Exchange Rate Pass- Through To Domestic Prices In Egypt, Ahmed Abdelhamid
Revisiting The Exchange Rate Pass- Through To Domestic Prices In Egypt, Ahmed Abdelhamid
Theses and Dissertations
Exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) refers to the extent to which the movements in the exchange rate influence domestic prices. This study revisits the exchange rate pass-through in Egypt using quarter data from 2006 to 2022. The study employs a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model to estimate the degree of ERPT. The findings suggest that ERPT in Egypt is incomplete, meaning that changes in the exchange rate do not fully pass through to consumer prices. The study also investigates the role of the money supply in absorbing the shocks in the nominal exchange rate. The study has important implications for policymakers …
The Macrodynamics Of Indian Rupee Swap Yields, Tanweer Akram, Khawaja Mamun
The Macrodynamics Of Indian Rupee Swap Yields, Tanweer Akram, Khawaja Mamun
WCBT Working Papers
This paper econometrically models the dynamics of Indian rupee (INR) swap yields based on key macroeconomic factors using the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) approach. It examines whether the short-term interest rate has a decisive influence on long-term INR swap yields after controlling for other factors, such as core inflation, the growth of industrial production, the logarithm of the equity price index, and the logarithm of the INR exchange rate. The estimated models show that the short-term interest rate has an important influence on the swap yields. This implies that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) can sway borrowing and lending …
Survey Of Professional Forecasters 2023, Singapore Management University
Survey Of Professional Forecasters 2023, Singapore Management University
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
Forecasters Maintain Their Expectations for Growth in 2023 The forecasters see the U.S. economy in 2023 expanding at the same pace as they predicted three months ago, according to 38 panelists surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict annual-average over annualaverage growth in real GDP of 1.3 percent in 2023, unrevised from their estimate of three months ago. The panelists are also maintaining their forecast for growth in the second quarter at an annual rate of 1.0 percent, unchanged compared with their previous projection. However, while their predictions for the second quarter and for 2023 remain …
An Inquiry Concerning Japanese Yen Interest Rate Swap Yields, Tanweer Akram, Khawaja Mamun
An Inquiry Concerning Japanese Yen Interest Rate Swap Yields, Tanweer Akram, Khawaja Mamun
WCBT Working Papers
This paper econometrically models Japanese yen (JPY)–denominated interest rate swap yields. It examines whether the short-term interest rate exerts an influence on the long-term JPY swap yield after controlling for several key macroeconomic variables, such as core inflation, the growth of industrial production, the percentage change in the equity price index, and the percentage change in the exchange rate. It also tests whether there are structural breaks in the dynamics of Japanese swap yields and related variables. The estimated econometric models show that the short-term interest rate exerts an important influence on the long-term swap yield in some periods but …
How Do Economic Conditions Affect How The Environment Is Treated, Hogan Thomas
How Do Economic Conditions Affect How The Environment Is Treated, Hogan Thomas
Honors Projects
This paper focuses on how economic conditions affect how the environment is treated. It creates a correlation between the ease of doing business ranking, human freedom index, economic freedom index, Real GDP growth, inflation, and environmental ranking to see how they impact each other. It also looks into historical changes in environmentalism and finds how the changes correlated with changes in economic conditions.
Three Essays On Macroeconomics And Development, Guilherme Klein Martins
Three Essays On Macroeconomics And Development, Guilherme Klein Martins
Doctoral Dissertations
This dissertation is a collection of essays that relate, in different forms, macroeconomic policies to economic development. Essay 1 provides evidence that austerity shocks have longrun negative effects on GDP. Besides addressing the important gap in the growing fiscal research regarding the short time horizon of the estimations, the paper analyzes two other important assumptions made in the literature regarding the (i) symmetry of episodes of fiscal expansion and contraction and (ii) uniformity of fiscal multipliers for different sizes of shocks. We use narrative fiscal shocks and propensity score reweighting in a local projections setup to account for the potential …
The American Dream: Living Paycheck To Paycheck, Benjamin Henwood
The American Dream: Living Paycheck To Paycheck, Benjamin Henwood
Richard T. Schellhase Essay Prize in Ethics
A debate that has gained traction due to recent economic circumstances is how the United States government should raise the federal minimum wage, and if they should raise it at all. I propose the United States government should raise the federal minimum wage by implementing a living wage or tying the federal minimum wage to inflation. Implementing a living wage would benefit workers as it would cover the cost of living in their geographic area. It would also benefit employers as their employees would be getting paid according to their needs rather than being paid a blanket wage that may …
An Econometric Model Of The Us Government Yield Curve Levels And Dynamics, Katerina Yiasoumi
An Econometric Model Of The Us Government Yield Curve Levels And Dynamics, Katerina Yiasoumi
Theses and Dissertations
The yield curve is the graph of the relationship of the nominal yield to maturity (ytm) on bonds of a similar asset class to different bond maturities at a point in time. Yield curves exist for every sector of the fixed income asset class, e.g., corporate, municipal, emerging markets, high yield, etc. not only for the United States, but for all bond markets worldwide. This research uses graphical techniques, descriptive statistics, correlation, as well as linear and non-linear regression to model each of nine treasury bills, notes, and bond ytms along the US Government bond maturity spectrum. The result is …
Part 5: Virginia's Hotel Industry Grows, But Change Is Coming, Dragas Center For Economic Analysis And Policy, Old Dominion University
Part 5: Virginia's Hotel Industry Grows, But Change Is Coming, Dragas Center For Economic Analysis And Policy, Old Dominion University
State of the Commonwealth Reports
This chapter assesses the performance of the hotel industry in the Commonwealth and discusses the challenges facing the hotel industry in 2024 and beyond. To understand the prospects for growth, we examine the recovery from the shock of 2020 and how different areas of the commonwealth fared with regard to hotel revenue and occupancy. We take stock of the competitive environment and how labor shortages continue to challenge hoteliers. We ask: what does the future hold for the hotel industry in Virginia?
Part 1: Virginia's Economy Grows, But Questions Linger About The Future, Dragas Center For Economic Analysis And Policy, Old Dominion University
Part 1: Virginia's Economy Grows, But Questions Linger About The Future, Dragas Center For Economic Analysis And Policy, Old Dominion University
State of the Commonwealth Reports
There is good news to report about the economy of the Commonwealth. Economic activity increased in 2022 and 2023. A record number of Virginians were at work or looking for work. Labor force participation increased above pre-pandemic levels. However, this news is tempered by the fact that Virginia grew slower than the nation and Virginians continue to migrate out of the Commonwealth. The Virginia economy should grow in 2024, but work remains to be done to match the economic performance of our peers.
Chinese Yuan Interest Rate Swap Yields, Tanweer Akram, Khawaja Mamun
Chinese Yuan Interest Rate Swap Yields, Tanweer Akram, Khawaja Mamun
WCBT Faculty Publications
This paper models the dynamics of Chinese yuan–denominated long-term interest rate swap yields. It shows that the short-term interest rate exerts a decisive influence on the long-term swap yield after controlling for various macrofinancial variables, such as core inflation, the growth of industrial production, the percent change in the equity price index, and the percentage change in the Chinese yuan exchange rate. The autoregressive distributed lag approach is applied to model the dynamics of the long-term swap yield. The findings reinforce and extend John Maynard Keynes’s conjecture that in advanced countries, as well as emerging market economies such as China, …
An Analysis Of Demand-Pull Inflation In The United States Post-Pandemic, Isabella A. Moynihan
An Analysis Of Demand-Pull Inflation In The United States Post-Pandemic, Isabella A. Moynihan
Honors Theses
The COVID-19 pandemic led to a global shutdown of the economy resulting from both demand and supply shocks. Also, the significant decline in output and employment in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic led to a fast reaction from the government in the form of large fiscal rescue packages. At the end of 2021, the acceleration of inflation, which had been dormant for more than four decades, became the main topic of macroeconomic debates. The debate has revolved around the influence of cost-push versus demand-pull causes of inflation. The dominant view in the United States has been that inflation resulted …