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Full-Text Articles in Economics
Forecasting Nigerian Stock Market Returns Using Arima And Artificial Neural Network Models, Godknows M. Isenah, Olusanya E. Olubusoye
Forecasting Nigerian Stock Market Returns Using Arima And Artificial Neural Network Models, Godknows M. Isenah, Olusanya E. Olubusoye
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
The study reports empirical evidence that artificial neural network based models are applicable to forecasting of stock market returns. The Nigerian stock market logarithmic returns time series was tested for the presence of memory using the Hurst coefficient before the models were trained. The test showed that the logarithmic returns process is not a random walk and that the Nigerian stock market is not efficient. Two artificial neural network based models were developed in the study. These networks are TECH (4-3-1) and TECH (3-3-1)whose out-of-sample forecast performance was compared with a baseline ARIMA (3,0,1) model. The results obtained in the …
Weak Convergence To Stochastic Integrals For Econometric Applications, Hanying Liang, Peter C.B. Phillips, Hanchao Wang, Qiying Wang
Weak Convergence To Stochastic Integrals For Econometric Applications, Hanying Liang, Peter C.B. Phillips, Hanchao Wang, Qiying Wang
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Limit theory involving stochastic integrals is now widespread in time series econometrics and relies on a few key results on function space weak convergence. In establishing weak convergence of sample covariances to stochastic integrals, the literature commonly uses martingale and semimartingale structures. While these structures have wide relevance, many applications in econometrics involve a cointegration framework where endogeneity and nonlinearity play a major role and lead to complications in the limit theory. This paper explores weak convergence limit theory to stochastic integral functionals in such settings. We use a novel decomposition of sample covariances of functions of I(1) and I(0) …