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Articles 1 - 30 of 88
Full-Text Articles in Economics
Singapore's Exchange Rate Policy: Some Implementation Issues, Hwee Kwan Chow
Singapore's Exchange Rate Policy: Some Implementation Issues, Hwee Kwan Chow
Research Collection School Of Economics
Reflecting the small open nature of its economy, Singapore has adopted an exchange rate-centered monetary policy framework since 1981. The exchange rate regime in Singapore is an intermediate regime that follows the basket-band-crawl system. With this managed float system, the MAS has successfully deterred speculators from attacking the domestic currency for most of the past three decades. At the same time, the flexibility accorded by the managed float system aided Singapore in escaping from the 1997–1998 Asian crisis relatively unscathed. In order to advance our understanding of the hitherto successful operation of Singapore's exchange rate policy, we examine the following …
Building Social Trust: A Human Capital Approach, Fali Huang
Building Social Trust: A Human Capital Approach, Fali Huang
Research Collection School Of Economics
Much evidence suggests individuals di¤er in their predisposition to cooperate, which is essentially a component of human capital. This paper examines the role of individual cooperative tendencies and their interactions with institutions in generating social trust; it also endogenizes cooperative tendencies using a human capital investment model. Multiple equilibria and ine¢ ciencies exist due to positive externalities. An innovative …nding is that, when institutions are more e¤ective in punishing defecting behaviors, more people invest in cooperative tendencies and hence the endogenous social trust is higher, though the equilibrium cooperative tendencies are lower. This paper provides a plausible explanation for many …
Long Run Covariance Matrices For Fractionally Integrated Processes, Peter C. B. Phillips, Sik Kim Chang
Long Run Covariance Matrices For Fractionally Integrated Processes, Peter C. B. Phillips, Sik Kim Chang
Research Collection School Of Economics
An asymptotic expansion is given for the autocovariance matrix of a vector of stationary long-memory processes with memory parameters d ∈ [0,½). The theory is then applied to deliver formulas for the long-run covariance matrices of multivariate time series with long memory.Phillips acknowledges partial support from a Kelly Fellowship and from the NSF under grant SES 04-142254. This may be proved directly using a Fourier integral asymptotic expansion when the spectrum of the short-memory component is analytic.
A Consistent Characteristic Function-Based Test For Conditional Independence, Liangjun Su, Halbert White
A Consistent Characteristic Function-Based Test For Conditional Independence, Liangjun Su, Halbert White
Research Collection School Of Economics
Y is conditionally independent of Z given X if Pr{f(y|X,Z)=f(y|X)}=1 for all y on its support, where f(·|·) denotes the conditional density of Y given (X,Z) or X. This paper proposes a nonparametric test of conditional independence based on the notion that two conditional distributions are equal if and only if the corresponding conditional characteristic functions are equal. We extend the test of Su and White (2005. A Hellinger-metric nonparametric test for conditional independence. Discussion Paper, Department of Economics, UCSD) in two directions: (1) our test is less sensitive to the choice of bandwidth sequences; (2) our test has power …
Geographic Decomposition Of Inequality In Health And Wealth: Evidence From Cambodia, Tomoki Fujii
Geographic Decomposition Of Inequality In Health And Wealth: Evidence From Cambodia, Tomoki Fujii
Research Collection School Of Economics
The small-area estimation developed by Elbers, Lanjouw and Lanjouw (2002, 2003), in which a census and a survey are combined to produce the estimates of welfare measures for small geographic areas, has become a standard tool for poverty analysis in developing countries. The small-area estimates are typically plotted on a map, which are commonly called a poverty map. Poverty maps proved useful for policy analysis and formulation, and have become increasingly popular among policy-makers and researchers. In Cambodia, poverty maps have been used by various international organizations, ministries and non-governmental organizations for analyzing the poverty situations for their operation areas, …
Global Analysis Of An Expectations Augmented Evolutionary Dynamics, Angelo Antoci, Antonio Gay, Massimiliano Landi, Pier Luigi Sacco
Global Analysis Of An Expectations Augmented Evolutionary Dynamics, Angelo Antoci, Antonio Gay, Massimiliano Landi, Pier Luigi Sacco
Research Collection School Of Economics
We consider a deterministic evolutionary model where players form expectations about future play. Players are not fully rational and have expectations that change over time in response to current payoffs and feedback from the past. We provide a complete characterization of the qualitative dynamics so induced for a two strategies population game, and relate our findings to standard evolutionary dynamics and equilibrium selection when agents have rational forward looking expectations.
Nonstationary Discrete Choice: A Corrigendum And Addendum, Peter C. B. Phillips, Sainan Jin, Ling Hu
Nonstationary Discrete Choice: A Corrigendum And Addendum, Peter C. B. Phillips, Sainan Jin, Ling Hu
Research Collection School Of Economics
We correct the limit theory presented in an earlier paper by Hu and Phillips [2004a. Nonstationary discrete choice. Journal of Econometrics 120, 103-138] for nonstationary time series discrete choice models with multiple choices and thresholds. The new limit theory shows that, in contrast to the binary choice model with nonstationary regressors and a zero threshold where there are dual rates of convergence (n1/4 and n3/4), all parameters including the thresholds converge at the rate n3/4. The presence of nonzero thresholds therefore materially affects rates of convergence. Dual rates of convergence reappear when stationary variables are present in the system. Some …
Incidental Trends And The Power Of Panel Unit Root Tests, Hyungsik Roger Moon, Benoit Perrron, Peter C. B. Phillips
Incidental Trends And The Power Of Panel Unit Root Tests, Hyungsik Roger Moon, Benoit Perrron, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
The asymptotic local power of various panel unit root tests is investigated. The (Gaussian) power envelope is obtained under homogeneous and heterogeneous alternatives. The envelope is compared with the asymptotic power functions for the pooled t-test, the Ploberger and Phillips [2002. Optimal testing for unit roots in panel data. Mimeo] test, and a point optimal test in neighborhoods of unity that are of order n-1/4T-1 and n-1/2T-1, depending on whether or not incidental trends are extracted from the panel data. In the latter case, when the alternative hypothesis is homogeneous across individuals, it is shown that the point optimal test …
Building Social Trust: A Human Capital Approach, Fali Huang
Building Social Trust: A Human Capital Approach, Fali Huang
Research Collection School Of Economics
Much evidence suggests individuals differ in their predisposition to cooperate, which is essentially a component of human capital. This paper examines the role of individual cooperative tendencies and their interactions with institutions in generating social trust; it also endogenizes cooperative tendencies using a human-capital investment model. Multiple equilibria and inefficiencies exist due to positive externalities. An innovative finding is that, when institutions are more effective in punishing defecting behaviors, more people invest in cooperative tendencies and hence the endogenous social trust is higher, though the equilibrium cooperative tendencies are lower. This paper provides a plausible explanation for many empirical and …
Chinese Loyalty To Supervisor Questionnaire Development, Ding-Yu Jiang, Bor-Shuian Cheng, Chi-Ying Cheng, Li-Fang Chou
Chinese Loyalty To Supervisor Questionnaire Development, Ding-Yu Jiang, Bor-Shuian Cheng, Chi-Ying Cheng, Li-Fang Chou
Research Collection School of Social Sciences
Loyalty to supervisor is a prevalent but under-investigated phenomenon in Chinese organizations. One plausible reason for this is the lack of a reliable and valid measure of loyalty in the Chinese context. This study aims to develop a valid measure of Chinese loyalty to supervisor. In Study 1, we identify a four-dimension construct of loyalty to supervisor that consists of 11 sub-dimensions (factors) on the basis of loyalty literature. The four dimensions are: identification with supervisor, task assistance, obedience, and sacrifice for supervisor. In Study 2, a 40-item Chinese loyalty to supervisor scale was developed and examined by three independent …
The Business Of Healthcare: A Slippery Slope?, Knowledge@Smu
The Business Of Healthcare: A Slippery Slope?, Knowledge@Smu
Knowledge@SMU
In Singapore, healthcare consumes 3.7% of GDP and is rising. Jeremy Lim, director of policy and research at Singapore Health Services (SingHealth), was the featured speaker at a recent Singapore Management University Wee Kim Wee Centre event. Lim trained as a surgeon before moving into healthcare management and health services research. He talked to Knowledge@SMU about the business opportunities and challenges in Singapore’s healthcare sector.
Wage Inequality, Intergenerational Mobility, And Education In Singapore, Kong Weng Ho
Wage Inequality, Intergenerational Mobility, And Education In Singapore, Kong Weng Ho
Research Collection School Of Economics
Accompanying Singapore’s phenomenal economic growth over the past four decades has been a rapid increase in educational attainment over the years. In 1960, the mean years of schooling for residents aged 25 and over was 3.14 years; in 2006, it was 9.3 years. This dramatic increase in the supply of skilled labour in all sectors of the economy helped to power Singapore’s high growth rates over the past few decades of economic development, which also saw declining wage inequality and high upward intergenerational mobility in education. However, we need to ask if these trends will continue in the future and …
Tournaments With Ex Post Heterogeneous Agents, Theofanis Tsoulouhas, Kosmas Marinakis
Tournaments With Ex Post Heterogeneous Agents, Theofanis Tsoulouhas, Kosmas Marinakis
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper compares relative performance evaluation via tournaments to absolute performance evaluation via piece rates when agents are heterogeneous ex post, to make the point that agent heterogeneity compromises the insurance function of tournaments. In particular, we show that the more heterogeneous agents are the less insurance can be offered through tournaments and the less dominant tournaments are over piece rates. Thus, absolute performance piece rates should be preferred when agents are highly heterogeneous. However, even with heterogeneous agents, tournaments become more desirable when the number of agents or the uncertainty about the common shock increases sufficiently.
Direction-Of-Change Forecasts Based On Conditional Variance, Skewness And Kurtosis Dynamics: International Evidence, Peter F. Christoffersen, Francis X. Diebold, Roberto S. Mariano, Anthony S. Tay, Yiu Kuen Tse
Direction-Of-Change Forecasts Based On Conditional Variance, Skewness And Kurtosis Dynamics: International Evidence, Peter F. Christoffersen, Francis X. Diebold, Roberto S. Mariano, Anthony S. Tay, Yiu Kuen Tse
Research Collection School Of Economics
Recent theoretical work has revealed a direct connection between asset return volatility forecastability and asset return sign forecastability. This suggests that the pervasive volatility forecastability in equity returns could, via induced sign forecastability, be used to produce direction-of change forecasts useful for market timing. We attempt to do so in an international sample of developed equity markets, with some success, as assessed by formal probability forecast scoring rules such as the Brier score. An important ingredient is our conditioning not only on conditional mean and variance information, but also conditional skewness and kurtosis information, when forming direction-of-change forecasts.
Connected Lives And Embeddedness: Reading Zelizer With Granovetter – A Review And Critique, Deirdre Caputo-Levine, Alwyn Lim, Celine. Wills
Connected Lives And Embeddedness: Reading Zelizer With Granovetter – A Review And Critique, Deirdre Caputo-Levine, Alwyn Lim, Celine. Wills
Research Collection School of Social Sciences
Our concern is to read Viviana Zelizer’s Purchase of Intimacy inrelation to Mark Granovetter’s embeddedness framework. We compare Zelizer’s connected-lives approach to the embeddedness literature in orderto tease out the similarities, differences, and improvements in the wayseconomic sociologists examine the intertwining of economic and socialbehavior. We argue that although Zelizer and Granovetter both focus onthis intermeshing of socioeconomic action, their perspectives reflect theirdiffering starting points: economic transactions or intimate relationships.We believe Zelizer’s connected-lives approach gives fresh insight to thenew economic sociology but we have some reservations regarding hertreatment of reciprocity and power in intimate relationships.
Modeling Country Risks: An Asian Perspective, Swee Liang Tan, G. K. Randolph Tan
Modeling Country Risks: An Asian Perspective, Swee Liang Tan, G. K. Randolph Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper investigates the use of the Markov Regime Switching Model (MRSM) as a means to track changes in the levels of investor confidence. It also assesses the probabilities of a country switching between different regimes using the transition probability matrix. A maximum of three possible levels or regimes of risk – low, intermediate and high volatility regimes, is considered. From the smoothed probabilities calculated for different regimes, this paper makes inferences about timings of debt crisis. Comparing Brazil, Mexico, the Philippines and Indonesia in particular, we date the onset and subsequent dissolution of crisis-induced panic. We give interpretations of …
Some Empirics On Economic Growth Under Heterogeneous Technology, Peter C. B. Phillips, Donggyu Sul
Some Empirics On Economic Growth Under Heterogeneous Technology, Peter C. B. Phillips, Donggyu Sul
Research Collection School Of Economics
A new econometric approach to testing for economic growth convergence is overviewed. The method is applicable to panel data, involves a simple regression based one-sided t-test, and can be used to form a clustering algorithm to assess the existence of growth convergence clubs. The approach allows for heterogeneous technology, utilizes some new asymptotic theory for nonlinear dynamic factor models, and is easy to implement. Some background growth theory is given which shows the form of augmented Solow regression (ASR) equations in the presence of heterogeneous technology and explains sources of potential misspecification that can arise in conventional formulations of ASR …
A Hybrid Approach To Case Teaching, Swee Liang Tan, Roy Jin Hou Ng
A Hybrid Approach To Case Teaching, Swee Liang Tan, Roy Jin Hou Ng
Research Collection School Of Economics
We structure case based teaching using a combination of computer-support technology and in-class activities. We create and design an on-line learning tool, Case Study On-line (CSOL) that enables instructor to structure the delivery of teaching resources and set up assignment tasks in the system. The tool enables tasks to be set in a way that they can be completed sequentially, and learning resources can be accessed only when required by students. Upon submission of their assignments, students can promptly receive instructor’s explanations to the tasks. Follow up activities take place in class, with the objective to promote active learning. The …
Financial Development And International Capital Flows, Jürgen Von Hagen, Haiping Zhang
Financial Development And International Capital Flows, Jürgen Von Hagen, Haiping Zhang
Research Collection School Of Economics
We develop a general equilibrium model with nancial frictions in which internal capital (equity capital) and external capital (bank loans) have di erent rates of return. Financial development raises the rate of return on external capital but has a non-monotonic e ect on the rate of return on internal capital. We then show in a two-country model that capital account liberalization leads to out ow of nancial capital from the country with less developed nancial system. However, the direction of foreign direct investment (FDI, henceforth) depends on the exact degrees of nancial development in the two countries as well as …
Inefficient Worker Turnover, Nicolas L. Jacquet
Inefficient Worker Turnover, Nicolas L. Jacquet
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper considers the efficiency properties of risk-neutral workers’ mobility decisions in an equilibrium model with search frictions, but no search externalities, when the rent accruing to a match is split through bargaining. Matches are ex ante homogeneous and their true productivity is learnt after the match is formed. It is shown that the efficiency of worker turnover depends on contract enforceability, and that in the absence of complete enforceability the equilibrium fails to be efficient. This is because without complete enforceability firms cannot credibly offer workers contracts that will guarantee them the entire future of all potential future matches.
Un-Balanced Economic Growth, Hing-Man Leung
Un-Balanced Economic Growth, Hing-Man Leung
Research Collection School Of Economics
Since the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor is not always one, and since technical progress is not always Harrod-neutral, it is desirable to have an endogenous growth model that admits all sizes of the elasticity and all known technology modes. We derive an equation to do just that, fully describing the per capita income growth rate at all times. It shows a typical economy needing hundreds if not thousands of years to reach its long term growth rate, leading to the conclusion that even the short run may be very long indeed.
The Wto Trade Effect, Pao Li Chang, Myoung-Jae Lee
The Wto Trade Effect, Pao Li Chang, Myoung-Jae Lee
Research Collection School Of Economics
Rose (2004) showed that the WTO or its predecessor, the GATT, did not promote trade, based on conventional econometric analysis of gravity-type equations of trade. We argue that conclusions regarding the GATT/WTO trade effect based on gravity-type equations are arbitrary and subject to parametric misspecifications. We propose using nonparametric matching methods to estimate the 'treatment effect' of GATT/WTO membership, and permutation-based inferential procedures for assessing statistical significance of the estimated effects. A sensitivity analysis following Rosenbaum (2002) is then used to evaluate the sensitivity of our estimation results to potential selection biases. Contrary to Rose (2004), we find the effect …
Building Social Trust: A Human Capital Approach, Fali Huang
Building Social Trust: A Human Capital Approach, Fali Huang
Research Collection School Of Economics
Much evidence suggests individuals differ in their predisposition to cooperate, which is essentially a component of human capital. This paper examines the role of individual cooperative tendencies and their interactions with institutions in generating social trust; it also endogenizes cooperative tendencies using a human-capital investment model. Multiple equilibria and inefficiencies exist due to positive externalities. An innovative finding is that, when institutions are more effective in punishing defecting behaviors, more people invest in cooperative tendencies and hence the endogenous social trust is higher, though the equilibrium cooperative tendencies are lower. This paper provides a plausible explanation for many empirical and …
On The Segmentation Of Markets, Nicolas Laurent Jacquet, Serene Tan
On The Segmentation Of Markets, Nicolas Laurent Jacquet, Serene Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper endogenizes the market structure of an economy with heterogeneous agents who want to form bilateral matches in the presence of search frictions and when utility is nontransferable. There exist infinitely many marketplaces, and each agent chooses which marketplace to be in: agents get to choose not only whom to match with but also whom they meet with. Perfect segmentation is obtained in equilibrium, where agents match with the first person they meet. All equilibria have the same matching pattern. Although perfect assortative matching is not obtained in equilibrium, the degree of assortativeness is greater than in standard models.
Employee Screening: Theory And Evidence, Fali Huang, Peter Cappelli
Employee Screening: Theory And Evidence, Fali Huang, Peter Cappelli
Research Collection School Of Economics
Arguably the fundamental problem faced by employers is how to elicit effort from employees. Most models suggest that employers meet this challenge by monitoring employees carefully to prevent shirking. But there is another option that relies on heterogeneity across employees, and that is to screen job candidates to find workers with a stronger work ethic who require less monitoring. This should be especially useful in work systems where monitoring by supervisors is more difficult, such as teamwork systems. We analyze the relationship between screening and monitoring in the context of a principal-agent model and test the theoretical results using a …
Dynamic Treatment Effect Analysis Of Tv Effects On Child Cognitive Development, Fali Huang
Dynamic Treatment Effect Analysis Of Tv Effects On Child Cognitive Development, Fali Huang
Research Collection School Of Economics
We investigate whether TV watching at ages 6-7 and 8-9 affects cognitive development measured by math and reading scores at ages 8-9 using a rich childhood longitudinal sample from NLSY79. Dynamic panel data models are estimated to handle the unobserved child-specific factor, endogeneity of TV watching, and dynamic nature of the causal relation. A special emphasis is put on the last aspect where TV watching affects cognitive development which in turn affects the future TV watching. When this feedback occurs, it is not straightforward to identify and estimate the TV effect. We adopt estimation methods available in the biostatistics literature …
More Efficient Estimation Of Nonparametric Panel Data Models With Random Effects, Liangjun Su, Aman Ullah
More Efficient Estimation Of Nonparametric Panel Data Models With Random Effects, Liangjun Su, Aman Ullah
Research Collection School Of Economics
We propose a class of two-step estimators for nonparametric panel data models with random effects that are more efficient than the conventional least squares estimators. We establish asymptotic normality for the proposed estimators and derive the most efficient estimator in the class.
Forecasting The Car Penetration Rate (Cpr) In China: A Nonparametric Approach, Sainan Jin, Liangjun Su
Forecasting The Car Penetration Rate (Cpr) In China: A Nonparametric Approach, Sainan Jin, Liangjun Su
Research Collection School Of Economics
With strong economic growth, the auto industry has made great breakthroughs in recent years and has become a backbone industry in China, while cars play an increasingly important role, and are now the principal part of the auto industry. Both China's government and academic circles take strong interest in the prediction of CPR (i.e. car penetration rate or cars per thousand people), which will be the main guidance for the future industry policy. We summarize the existing problems in recent research and propose to use nonparametric methods to estimate the CPR and its elasticity with respect to GDP per capita …
Avoiding Arbitrary Exclusion Restrictions Using Ratios Of Reduced-Form Estimates, Myoung-Jae Lee, Pao-Li Chang
Avoiding Arbitrary Exclusion Restrictions Using Ratios Of Reduced-Form Estimates, Myoung-Jae Lee, Pao-Li Chang
Research Collection School Of Economics
We show how to obtain coherent structural-form (SF) exclusion restrictions using the reduced-form (RF) parameter ratios. It will be shown that an over-identified SF corresponds to a group of regressors sharing the same RF ratio value; those regressors should be excluded jointly from the SF. If there is no group structure, then the SF is just-identified; in this case, however, it is no longer clear which regressor should be excluded. Hence, just-identified SF’s are more arbitrary than over-identified SF’s in terms of exclusion restrictions. This is in stark contrast to the notion that the former is less arbitrary than the …
Improved Maximum-Likelihood Estimation For The Common Shape Parameter Of Several Weibull Populations, Zhenlin Yang, Dennis K. J. Lin
Improved Maximum-Likelihood Estimation For The Common Shape Parameter Of Several Weibull Populations, Zhenlin Yang, Dennis K. J. Lin
Research Collection School Of Economics
The biasness problem of the maximum-likelihood estimate (MLE) of the common shape parameter of several Weibull populations is examined in detail. A modified MLE (MMLE) approach is proposed. In the case of complete and Type II censored data, the bias of the MLE can be substantial. This is noticeable even when the sample size is large. Such a bias increases rapidly as the degree of censorship increases and as more populations are involved. The proposed MMLE, however, is nearly unbiased and much more efficient than the MLE, irrespective of the degree of censorship, the sample sizes, and the number of …