Economics Commons^™

On The Total Duration Of Negative Surplus Of A Risk Process With Two-Step Premium Function, Pavlina Jordanova

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

We consider a risk reserve process whose premium rate reduces from c_d to c_u when the reserve comes above some critical value v. In the model of Cramer-Lundberg with initial capital u ≥ 0, we obtain the probability that ruin does not occur before the first up-crossing of level v. When u < v, following H. Gerber and E. Shiu (1997), we derive the probability that starting with initial capital u ruin occurs and the severity of ruin is not bigger than v. Further we express the probability of ruin in the two step premium function model - ψ (u,v), by the last two probabilities. Our assumptions imply that the surplus process will go to infinity almost surely. This entails that the process will stay below zero only temporarily. We derive the distribution of the total duration of negative surplus and obtain its Laplace transform and mean value. As a consequence of these results, under certain conditions in the Model of Cramer-Lundberg we obtain the expected value of the severity of ruin. In the end of the paper we give examples with exponential claim sizes.

Biomass And Biofuels In Maine: Estimating Supplies For Expanding The Forest Products Industry, Jonathan Rubin, Kate Dickerson, Jacob Kavkewitz

Energy & the Environment

This paper estimates the renewable energy potential of Maine’s forest resources, and how much energy these resources could potentially provide the state. Using the most recent state-specific data available, and a methodology similar to the Billion Tons Report, we find that ethanol production from Maine’s forest residues could potentially provide 18% of Maine’s transportation (gasoline) fuels with a fermentation wood to ethanol process. Making Fischer-Tropsch diesel (F-T diesel) using forest residues can replace 39% of Maine’s petro-diesel consumption. Actual levels of biofuels that can be produced will depend on conversion factors and forestry residue removals that are subject to uncertainty.

Concurrent Panel Session 1: Challenges Of Economic Growth & Diversification & Labor Preparation In Las Vegas, Maggie Arias-Petrel, Cedric Crear, Somer Hollingsworth, Mike Majewski, John Restrepo, Mary Riddel, Keith Schwer, Dina Titus

Shaping the Future of Southern Nevada: Economic, Environmental, and Social Sustainability

Moderator: Dr. Mel Jameson, UNLV College of Business Scribe: Angela Moor, UNLV Department of History Conference white paper & Full summary of panel session, 6 pages

An Assessment Of Factors Affecting Fleet Fuel Performance, Carlo D. Smith, John L. Kent, Cory J. Roberts

All Faculty Scholarship for the College of Business

Improving fuel performance in all modes of transportation is becoming more important as fuel prices increase and concerns over environmental issues rise. This is particularly relevant in the class 8 motor carrier sector which accounts for the majority of fuel consumption among all classes of motor freight movement. The present study evaluated the extent that existing technologies, systems and policies designed to improve fuel efficiency have been and are expected to be adopted by current class 8 fleets. Results suggest that while many of the efforts of suppliers to the industry are focused on new technologies, there remains an opportunity …

Tourism In Lugu Hu: Helpful Or Harmful? Examining The Impact Of Tourism On Lugu Lake’S People And Environment, Joana Chan

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Is tourism a boon or burden to the land and the people that it impacts? This question has plagued academics for ages. On the one hand, tourism brings not only definite economic growth for the local people, but also motivation for preservation of the local landscape. On the other hand, the arrival of tourists also ironically brings definite cultural and environmental transformations to the very people and land that visitors travel so far to see and experience.

My research examines the complexities of tourism and its impact on the environment and people of Lugu Lake, Yunnan. By surveying social and …

Watered Down: The Intersection And Integration Of Tourism Development And Water Resource Management In Marrakech, Morocco, Alison Maassen

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

No abstract provided.

Desarrollo Turístico Y Sustentabilidad: Caso Villa Pehuenia Y La Comunidad Mapuche Puel, Sasha Shahidi

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

With limited resources and overpopulation on a global level, sustainable development is the only way that human beings will be able to survive on this earth. The problem is that the dominant model of development stresses the importance of economic profits in the short term and far too often exploits natural resources and less powerful cultural groups. This creates dangerous long-term affects as natural resources and indigenous cultures that depend on them continue to disappear with no plan, or possibility, to replace them. Sustainability seeks the least negative impacts possible on the natural environment and indigenous cultures in order to …

The Apostle Table - Part Iii - Incompetent Endogenous Response Intransitivity, David Randall Jenkins

David Randall Jenkins

The Apostle Table illustrates a New Testament encryption scheme revealed in the Book of Matthew. Specifically, the list of the twelve apostles in Matthew, 10:1-4, points to the Matthew, Chapters 8 and 9, disciple characterizations. The disciples metaphorically characterize the social choice theory aspect of the scripture writers' (ordered relations theory: social choice theory: welfare model) regression. The paper is written in two parts: I. The Exogenous Pressures; and, II. The Endogenous Response. Interestingly, the paper explains why the crucified Jesus could not get off the cross.

The Shift From Defined Benefit Pensions To 401(K) Plans And The Pension Assets Of The Baby Boom Cohort, James Poterba, Steven Venti, David A. Wise

Dartmouth Scholarship

The rise of 401(k) plans and the decline of defined benefit plans will have an important effect on the wealth of future retirees. Changing demographic structure also will affect the aggregate stock of retirement wealth. We project the stock of assets held in retirement plans and the average retirement saving of retirees through 2040. Our projections show large increases in wealth at retirement, especially if the returns on corporate equities are comparable with historical returns. Retirement wealth will grow, however, even if equity returns fall substantially below their historical level.

Financial Portfolio Strategy: Application To College Of Southwest, Grace S. Thomson

Dr. Grace S. Thomson

Financial Portfolio Strategy Creating value in the organization is the cornerstone of business activity. Value-creation is a concept that has evolved for the past fifty years, stimulating the generation of theories, techniques, models and institutions (Slater and Zwirlein, 1996). Financial markets have developed in response to the dynamic corporate activity, providing different options of financing and investment. Financial decision-making at the executive level becomes critical in the creation of wealth in the organization, and the financial strategies designed by the Top Management Team (TMT) are expected to seek beyond profit maximization (Lankau et al, 2007; Myers, 2001). However, there are …

Analysis Of The China Factor Effect On The International Dry Bulk Shipping Market, Xiaoxiao Bi

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Analysis Of Shanghai Port's Competitiveness After The Operation Of Yangshan Deep-Water Port, Wei Jiang

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Research And Analysis On The Competence Of China’S Chemical Shipping Enterprise, Huan Yu

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

The Study On The Vessel Size Of Container Transport In The Yangtze River, Chenchen Peng

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

The Study On Sinochem Shipping Corporation’S Fleet Expansion, Yunhao Ji

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Study On Grade Evaluation Of Port Shoreline In Jiangsu Province, Wei Li

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

The Analysis Of The Bullwhip Effect In Chinese Medicine Supply Chain, Haiming Zhu

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

A Decomposition Algorithm For N-Player Games, Robert B. Wilson, Srihari Govindan

Robert B Wilson

An N-player game can be decomposed by adding a coordinator who interacts bilaterally with each player. The coordinator proposes profiles of strategies to the players, and his payoff is maximized when players' optimal replies agree with his proposal. When the feasible set of proposals is finite, a solution of an associated linear complementarity problem yields an equilibrium of the approximate game and thus an approximate equilibrium of the original game. Computational efficiency is improved by using vertices of a triangulation of the players' strategy space for the coordinator's pure strategies. Computational experience is reported.

A Dynamic-Trend Exponential Smoothing Model, Don Miller, Dan Williams

Publications and Research

Forecasters often encounter situations in which the local pattern of a time series is not expected to persist over the forecasting horizon. Since exponential smoothing models emphasize recent behavior, their forecasts may not be appropriate over longer horizons. In this paper, we develop a new model in which the local trend line projected by exponential smoothing converges asymptotically to an assumed future long-run trend line, which might be an extension of a historical long-run trend line. The rapidity of convergence is governed by a parameter. A familiar example is an economic series exhibiting persistent long-run trend with cyclic variation. This …

Oil. Seeking Peace In The Niger Delta: Oil, Natural Gas, And Other Vital Resources, Darren Kew, David L. Phillips

New England Journal of Public Policy

Nigeria’s oil-rich Niger Delta region has seen little benefit from the billions of dollars earned from oil over the last four decades, prompting a growing but disorganized insurgency across the region. Irresponsible oil companies and government officials have reduced the Niger Delta to one of the most polluted environments on earth. Corrupt local and national politicians, many of whom came to power through rigged elections, have colluded to manipulate ethnic divisions amid poverty to loot the region’s wealth. Consequently, the people of the Niger Delta have no formal political voice in Nigeria’s nascent democratic system, increasing the appeal of militias …

Oil. China And Oil In The Asian Pacific Region: Rising Demand For Oil, Pablo Bustelo

New England Journal of Public Policy

China’s growing demand for oil is significantly changing the international geopolitics of energy, especially in the Asian Pacific region. The recent growth in oil consumption, combined with forecasts of increased oil imports (especially from the Middle East), have led to deep concern among Chinese leaders regarding their country’s energy security. They are responding in a number of different ways. In particular, they are searching for new sources of supply and seeking to control purchases and transport lanes, while boosting national production at any cost. This is already causing tension with the United States and other big oil consumers, such as …

Fueling The Superpowers: Russia As A Player In World Energy, Theresa Sabonis-Helf

New England Journal of Public Policy

This article by Theresa Sabonis-Helf is taken from the proceedings of the EPIIC Symposium at Tufts University, February 2005

Oil. Geopolitics Reborn: Oil, Natural Gas, And Other Vital Resources, Michael T. Klare

New England Journal of Public Policy

Competition over vital resources is a potent source of international friction among nations and within states. The result is the increasing interplay of international and internal struggles and the growing militarization of the global energy resource quest.

Fueling The Superpowers: Potential Hazard For U.S.-China Relations, Travis Tanner

New England Journal of Public Policy

This article by Travis Tanner is taken from the proceedings of the EPIIC Symposium at Tufts University, February 2005

Oil. Changing Geopolitics Of Oil In Asia & The Usa, Jay Hein, John Clark, Robert Ebel, Dong Hyung Cha, Richard Lotspeich

New England Journal of Public Policy

One of the most important responsibilities the United States assumed following World War II was ensuring the stable flow of relatively inexpensive oil to the industrialized and industrializing countries of the world. A glance at a list of the top petroleum exporting countries shows that most of them are poor, have despotic governments, and experience frequent bouts of political instability and ideological extremism.

Oil. The Geopolitics Of Oil And Natural Gas, Alan Larson

New England Journal of Public Policy

Ensuring the reliability of global energy supplies will call for policies that both encourage the use of newer, cleaner energy technologies and address the political challenges posed by the world’s growing demand for oil and natural gas. U.S. policy seeks to encourage expansion and diversification of world energy supplies and to promote the transparency and democratic institutions that help energy-producing countries make the most productive use of their resources.

Fueling The Superpowers: Nexus Of Foreign Policy And Energy Security, Jack Blum

New England Journal of Public Policy

This article talks about the oil history and the role government and international politics has played in it.

Stochastic Modeling Of Retail Mortgage Loans Based On Past Due, Prepaid, And Default States, Chang Liu

Doctoral Dissertations

Stochastic models were developed that provide important measures related to retail mortgages and credit cards for the management of a bank. Based on Markov theory, two models were developed that predict mortgage portfolio size and expected duration of stay in each of the states, which are defined according to the criteria of Basel Accord II and the Federal Reserve Bank. Also, to facilitate comparisons among different types of credit products and different time periods, a model was developed to generate a health index for a retail mortgage. This model could be easily extended, using multivariate regression or multivariate time series …

A Taxonomy Of Finance Theories, Grace S. Thomson

Dr. Grace S. Thomson

Finance Theories Taxonomy This document presents a taxonomy of selected finance theories developed in past 5 decades by academics, practitioners and scholars in the United States, Europe, Asia and Latin America. A total of 14 theories and models are synthesized in this work, organized in five tables with the same structure: Theories of capital structure; capital budgeting and cost of equity; asset valuation, financial behavior and international finances. Each table contains theories organized alphabetically with an indication of its germinal or current character. The description of the theory is accompanied by current examples of empirical research that updates or contradicts …

Fueling Samoa’S Growing Transport Sector: The Impact Of Rising Oil Prices And Imports On A Pacific Island Economy, Janis Mcdaid Ikeda

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

The developed nations of the world are more concerned than ever with reducing their dependence on imported oil, lowering greenhouse gas emissions and developing alternative energy technologies. These issues are among the highest priorities for developing economies in the Pacific region as well. Samoa is a part of several regional initiatives that address petroleum and energy issues and is due to launch its own national energy policy in the coming months.

Petroleum prices in Samoa are low in comparison to other parts of the region because of the unique government/oil company partnership that administers its oil imports and pricing; however …