Economics Commons^™

Milk Prices Coming Down; 1996 Grain Prices In Review; 1996 - A Mixed Year For South Dakota Livestock Producers, Donald Peterson, Alan May, Gene Murra

Economics Commentator

No abstract provided.

A Primer On Prejudgment Interest, Michael S. Knoll

All Faculty Scholarship

No abstract provided.

Household Saving: Micro Theories And Micro Facts, Martin Browning, Annamaria Lusardi

Dartmouth Scholarship

In this survey, we review the recent theoretical and empirical literature on household saving and consumption. The discussion is structured around a list of motives for saving and how well the standard theory captures these motives. We show that almost all of the motives for saving that have been suggested in the informal saving literature can be captured in the standard optimizing model. Particular attention is given to recent work on the precautionary motive and its implications for saving and consumption behavior. We also discuss the "behavioral" or "psychological" approach that eschews the use of standard optimization techniques and focuses …

The Generalized War Of Attrition, Jeremy I. Bulow, Paul D. Klemperer

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We generalize the War of Attrition model to allow for N + K firms competing for N prizes. Two special cases are of particular interest. First, if firms continue to pay their full costs after dropping out (as in a standard-setting context), each firm’s exit time is independent both of K and of the actions of other players. Second, in the limit in which firms pay no costs after dropping out (as in a natural-oligopoly problem), the field is immediately reduced to N + 1 firms. Furthermore, we have perfect sorting, so it is always the K -1 lowest-value players …

Promises Promises, John Geanakoplos

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

In the classical general equilibrium model, agents keep all their promises, every good is traded, and competition prevents any agent from earning superior returns on investments in financial markets. In this paper I introduce the age-old problem of broken promises into the general equilibrium model, and I find that a new market dynamic emerges. Given the legal system and institutions, market forces of supply and demand will establish the collateral levels which are required to secure promises. Since physical collateral will typically be scarce, these collateral levels will be set so low that there is bound to be some default. …

Pre-Commitment Vs. Flexibility : Uncertainty And Distribution Reform In P.R. China, Kong Wing, Clement Chow

Hong Kong Institute of Business Studies Working Paper Series

The Chinese economic reform is remarkably different from the East European reforms in which the Chinese model emphasizes competition over privatization. This paper explains why the Chinese distribution reform is successful, although the Chinese government has made no attempt in privatizing her inefficient state-owned enterprises. By extending Coughlan's (1 985) price competition model to endogenize the pre-commitment versus flexibility decision, it is shown that reducing uncertainty can encourage enterprises to pre-commit their investment which allows further development of the retail sectors. This results supports the gradual pace of distribution reform policy of China. By contrast, the 'renolutionary' East European model …

Exploring Social Polarization In Jefferson County, Kentucky: An Analytical Approach, Jason Finley

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

The purpose of this study is to explore the processes of social polarization, an increasing gap between the rich and poor, in Jefferson County, Kentucky, to determine the spatial characteristics involved and to investigate useful methodological tools. I argue that social polarization processes are evident in Jefferson County, and I attempt to describe and analyze the emerging spatial characteristics of polarization in the study area. The study area comprises the thirteen market areas of Jefferson County, which were broken down into 3 socioeconomic regions based on the natural breaks of market area median household income. Each market area is analyzed …

Exchange Rate Overvaluation Under Hyperinflation : The Case Of Peru, Rafael Amiel-Saenz

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation examines the behavior of the exchange rate under two different scenarios. The first one is characterized by, relatively, low inflation or a situation where prices adjust sluggishly. The second is a high inflation economy where prices respond very rapidly even to unanticipated shocks. In the first one, following a monetary expansion, the exchange rate overshoots, i.e. the nominal exchange rate depreciates at a faster pace than the price level. Under high levels of inflation, prices change faster than the exchange rate so the exchange rate undershoots its long run equilibrium value.

The standard work in this area, Dornbusch …

Increased Hog Production In South Dakota: One Possible Solution - Contracting, Gene Murra

Economics Commentator

No abstract provided.

Review Of Private Means, Public Ends: Voluntarism Vs. Coercion, Edited By J. Wilson Mixon, Jr., Fred Foldvary

Faculty Publications

A review of Private Means, Public Ends: Voluntarism vs. Coercion, edited by J. Wilson Mixon, Jr.The Foundation for Economic Education. 1996 • 150 pages. $14.95 paperback.

Review Of "The First American Frontier: Transition To Capitalism In Southern Appalachia, 1700-1860,"By W.A. Dunaway, Mike Allen

SIAS Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Hyperfinite Asset Pricing Theory, M. Ali Khan, Yeneng Sun

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We present a model of a financial market which unifies the capital-asset-pricing model (CAPM) of Sharpe-Lintner, and the arbitrage pricing theory (APT) of Ross. The model is based on a recent theory of hyperfinite processes, and it uncovers asset pricing phenomena which cannot be treated by classical methods, and whose asymptotic counterparts are not already, or even readily, apparent in the setting of a large but finite number of assets. In the model, an asset’s unexpected return can be decomposed into a systematic and an unsystematic part, as in the APT, and the systematic part further decomposed leads to a …

On The Number Of Bootstrap Repetitions For Bootstrap Standard Errors, Confidence Internals, And Tests, Donald W.K. Andrews, Moshe Buchinsky

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper considers the problem of choosing the number of bootstrap repetitions B for bootstrap standard errors, confidence intervals, and tests. For each of these problems, the paper provides a three-step method for choosing B to achieve a desired level of accuracy. Accuracy is measured by the percentage deviation of the bootstrap standard error estimate, confidence interval endpoint(s), test’s critical value, or test’s p -value based on B bootstrap simulations from the corresponding ideal bootstrap quantities for which B = ∞. Monte Carlo simulations show that the proposed methods work quite well. The results apply quite generally to parametric, semiparametric, …

Prices, Asset Markets And Indeterminacy, Heracles M. Polemarchakis, P. Siconolfi

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Competitive equilibrium allocations are indeterminate when the net trades in commodities are constrained, while the asset market is incomplete

Bayesian Posterior Distributions In Limited Information Analysis Of The Simultaneous Equations Model Using The Jeffreys’ Prior, John C. Chao, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper studies the use of the Jeffreys’ prior in Bayesian analysis of the simultaneous equations model (SEM). Exact representations are obtained for the posterior density of the structural coefficient beta in canonical SEM’s with two endogenous variables. For the general case with m endogenous variables and an unknown covariance matrix, the Laplace approximation is used to derive an analytic formula for the same posterior density. Both the exact and the approximate formulas we derive are found to exhibit Cauchy-like tails analogous to comparable results in the classical literature on LIML estimation. Moreover, in the special case of a two-equation, …

Market Diffusion With Two-Sided Learning, Dirk Bergemann, Juuso Välimäki

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The diffusion of a new product of uncertain value is analyzed in a duopolistic market in continuous time. The two sides of the market, buyers and sellers, learn the true value of the new product over time as a result of experimentation. Buyers have heterogeneous preferences over the products and sellers compete in prices. The pricing policies and market shares of the sellers in the unique Markov perfect equilibrium are obtained explicitly. The dynamics of the equilibrium market shares display excessive sales of the new product relative to the social optimum in early stages and too low sales later on. …

Conditional Independence Restrictions: Testing And Estimation, Oliver B. Linton, Pedro Gozalo

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We propose a nonparametric empirical distribution function based test of an hypothesis of conditional independence between variables of interest. This hypothesis is of interest both for model specification purposes, parametric and semiparametric, and for non-model based testing of economic hypotheses. We allow for both discrete variables and estimated parameters. The asymptotic null distribution of the test statistic is a functional of a Gaussian process. A bootstrap procedure is proposed for calculating the critical values. Our test has power against alternatives at distance n -1/2 from the null; this result holding independently of dimension. Monte Carlo simulations provide evidence on size …

Where Do The Rents Go? Land Ownership In An Urban Model, Stephen Ross, John Yinger

Center for Policy Research

Despite the predominance of homeownership, general equilibrium urban models assume that rents flow to absentee landlords or are redistributed to residents. This paper explores open urban models with more realistic forms of land ownership, namely ownership of shares in a land corporation and individual home ownership. These models, which produce capital gains and losses for residents, can yield different comparative static results than previous open models, with post-shock bid functions that are flatter at the periphery or steeper at the center. Moreover, shocks to these models cannot in general be analyzed without knowing the characteristics of all the urban areas …

Learning About Employment Policy In North America: Study Tours By Hungarian Experts, Christopher J. O'Leary

Reports

No abstract provided.

Methods For Performance Based Management Of Active Labor Programs In Hungary: An Adjustment Methodology For Performance Indicators And A Proposal For Budget Allocation, Christopher J. O'Leary

Reports

No abstract provided.

Statistical Techniques For Labor Market Modelling: Seasonal Adjustment And Local Area Unemployment, Christopher J. O'Leary

Reports

No abstract provided.

Livestock: U.S. Production & Prices, Gene Murra

Economics Commentator

No abstract provided.

Promoting The Flow Of Investment Resources Into Nigeria's Petroleum Industry, M O. Ojo, C. M. Anyanwu

CBN Occasional Papers

The objective of the paper is to review the investment climate and policy incentives designed for the Nigerian oil industry with a view to evaluating how supportive they have been in terms of attracting investment funds into the sector. The industry has grown over the years to become the backbone of the economy. Given its strategic role, recent revelations of possible distress in the sector attributable to fast declining investment expenditure, deserves analysis and remedial actions. The investment needs of the industry are massive. A survey of the. sector shows that there is a large resource gap between its needs …

Public Sector Unions And Public Spending, Michael L. Marlow, William Orzechowski

Economics

This study examines the influence of public sector unions on the expansion of the public sector. Based on public goods theory, our paper models how unions influence the supply of and demand for public sector activities. On the demand side, public sector unions are special interests which advocate public sector expansion to policy makers; on the supply side, they exert pressure to maintain and expand monopoly powers. Empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that a positive relationship exists between public sector unionism and public spending.

Spurious Regression Unmasked, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper argues that trending time series can admit valid regression representations even when the dependent variable and the regressors are statistically independent, i.e., in situations that are presently characterized in the literature as “spurious regressions.” Our theory is directed mainly at the two classic examples of regressions of stochastic trends on time polynomials and regressions among independent random walks. But it has more general applicability and, we think, wider implications. Contrary to established wisdom, our theory justifies regressions of this type as valid models for the data. The radical conclusion that emerges from this study is that there are …

Small Business Lending: Barriers And Trends, Zhongcai Zhang, Ziona Austrian

All Maxine Goodman Levin School of Urban Affairs Publications

In recent years, small-business lending has been discussed widely among the commercial banking community, a reflection of both the growing relative importance of small businesses to the U.S. economy and the fact that large companies have developed the ability to access capital markets directly for debt and equity financing. Although their market share in small-business lending has been eroded in recent years by competition from depository and non-depository financial institutions, commercial banks remain the most frequently used source of financing for small businesses. Accordingly, this paper will focus on commercial banks. At some point during their operating history, most small …

Is The “Dominant Firm” Dominant? An Empirical Analysis Of At&T’S Market Power, Simran K. Kahai, David L. Kaserman, John W. Mayo

Economics & Finance

In this article, we estimate the degree of market power held by AT&T in the interstate long-distance market in the postdivestiture period. Our approach makes use of the dominant firm/competitive fringe model to impose the structure needed both to obtain estimates of the relevant structural parameters and to translate these parameters into an estimate of AT&T's residual demand elasticity and associated Lerner index. Because of the continued presence of regulation and other considerations, however, a direct estimation of the residual demand elasticity is not feasible. Consequently, we take a more indirect approach that combines estimation of the elasticity of fringe …

Assessment Of The Importance Of Small Business To Kalamazoo County's Economy And The Adequacy Of Services To Nurture Small Business Formation, George A. Erickcek

Reports

No abstract provided.

Planning Guidelines For Active Labor Programs In Hungary, Christopher J. O'Leary

Reports

No abstract provided.

A Reexamination Of Balassa's Productivity Bias Hypothesis, Mohsen Bahmani Oskooee, Farhang Niroomand

Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.