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Full-Text Articles in Economics

Spread Trading In Corn Futures Market, Ryan D. Napier May 2016

Spread Trading In Corn Futures Market, Ryan D. Napier

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The non-linear relationship between old crop – new crop year spreads in corn futures market and stock-to-use (S-U) ratios published by the United States Department of Agriculture is analyzed. Using a non-linear logarithmic smooth transition regression (LSTR) model, we capture asymmetric market behaviors in high and low S-U regimes. Capturing this relationship and understanding the non-linear aspects of the relationship is of interest of grain merchandizers and speculators in the market. A spread trading strategy is simulated for the sample period, January 1985 through April 2015, to determine if the non-linear relationship is a profitable arbitrage opportunity in the market.


Relationship Of Grain Stocks And Farmer Marketings, Tyler Holmquist Jan 2016

Relationship Of Grain Stocks And Farmer Marketings, Tyler Holmquist

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This research explores the relationship between quarterly grain stocks and monthly grain marketings. Reviewing when, how, and why stocks move from on-farm and off-farm inventories, an interpretation of quarterly commodity disappearance and crop marketings is formed. An explanatory model is first developed for farmer marketings, where price expectations are used to assess market signals to change ownership of crops. The model is applied to South Dakota corn, soybeans, and wheat from 1985 through 2015. The subsequent analysis contributes to a model that explains quarterly changes in stocks in terms of supply levels and the expected effect from marketings on disappearance. …