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Full-Text Articles in Economics
The Effects Of An Ellis Act Eviction On Neighborhood Socioeconomic Status, Brian J. Asquith
The Effects Of An Ellis Act Eviction On Neighborhood Socioeconomic Status, Brian J. Asquith
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Rent-control advocates argue that its strongest feature is offering tenants strong protections from economic displacement. Nonetheless, rent control may have negative effects on tenants, as previous research has shown that these tenants have longer commutes and higher unemployment rates because they are incentivized to stay in place even after their location is no longer optimal. I study what happens to tenants when they are displaced from their rent-controlled apartments by exploiting a California law called the Ellis Act that allows landlords in Los Angeles and San Francisco to evict tenants even if they are lease-compliant, under the condition that all …
The Case For Dynamic Cities, Brian J. Asquith, Margaret C. Bock
The Case For Dynamic Cities, Brian J. Asquith, Margaret C. Bock
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Cities today are confronting never-before-seen challenges to their top spot in the economic hierarchy. In this chapter, we lay out four challenges, past and future, that cities face today and identify policies that can help address the problems we identify. We call attention to the need for many U.S. cities to redevelop the large amount of aging postwar single-family housing, while reforming past exclusionary zoning and infrastructure decisions that exacerbated inequality. Cities will have to fix these past mistakes against the backdrop of an aging population and the rise of remote working, both of which undercut cities’ traditional source of …
Place-Based Consequences Of Person-Based Transfers: Evidence From Recessions, Brad J. Hershbein, Bryan A. Stuart
Place-Based Consequences Of Person-Based Transfers: Evidence From Recessions, Brad J. Hershbein, Bryan A. Stuart
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper studies how government transfers respond to changes in local economic activity that emerge during recessions. Local labor markets that experience greater employment losses during recessions face persistent relative decreases in earnings per capita. However, these areas also experience persistent increases in transfers per capita, which offset 16 percent of the earnings loss on average. The increase in transfers is driven by unemployment insurance in the short run, and medical, retirement, and disability transfers in the long run. Our results show that nominally place-neutral transfer programs redistribute considerable sums of money to places with depressed economic conditions.
Black Suburbanization: Causes And Consequences Of A Transformation Of American Cities, Alexander W. Bartik, Evan Mast
Black Suburbanization: Causes And Consequences Of A Transformation Of American Cities, Alexander W. Bartik, Evan Mast
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Since 1970, the share of Black individuals living in suburbs of large cities has risen from 16 to 36 percent. This shift is as large as the post-World War II wave of the Great Migration. We first show that Black suburbanization has led to major changes in neighborhoods, accounting for a large share of recent increases in both the average Black individual’s neighborhood quality and within-Black income segregation. We then show that changes in relative suburban amenities and housing prices explain about 60 and 30 percent, respectively, of Black suburbanization, while regional reallocation, changing educational attainment, and gentrification play only …
Warding Off Development: Local Control, Housing Supply, And Nimbys, Evan Mast
Warding Off Development: Local Control, Housing Supply, And Nimbys, Evan Mast
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Local control of land-use regulation creates a not-in-my-backyard (NIMBY) problem that can suppress housing construction, contributing to rising prices and potentially slowing economic growth. I study how increased local control affects housing production by exploiting a common electoral reform—changing from “at-large” to “ward” elections for town council. These reforms, which are not typically motivated by housing markets, shrink each representative’s constituency from the entire town to one ward. Difference-in-differences estimates show that this decentralization decreases housing units permitted by 24 percent, with 47 percent and 12 percent effects on multi- and single-family units. The effect on multifamily is larger in …
Supply Shock Versus Demand Shock: The Local Effects Of New Housing In Low-Income Areas, Brian J. Asquith, Evan Mast, Davin Reed
Supply Shock Versus Demand Shock: The Local Effects Of New Housing In Low-Income Areas, Brian J. Asquith, Evan Mast, Davin Reed
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
We study the local effects of new market-rate housing in low-income areas using microdata on large apartment buildings, rents, and migration. New buildings decrease nearby rents by 5 to 7 percent relative to locations slightly farther away or developed later, and they increase in-migration from low-income areas. Results are driven by a large supply effect—we show that new buildings absorb many high-income households—that overwhelms any offsetting endogenous amenity effect. The latter may be small because most new buildings go into already-changing areas. Contrary to common concerns, new buildings slow local rent increases rather than initiate or accelerate them.
The Effect Of New Market-Rate Housing Construction On The Low-Income Housing Market, Evan Mast
The Effect Of New Market-Rate Housing Construction On The Low-Income Housing Market, Evan Mast
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Increasing supply is frequently proposed as a solution to rising housing costs. However, there is little evidence on how new market-rate construction—which is typically expensive—affects the market for lower quality housing in the short run. I begin by using address history data to identify 52,000 residents of new multifamily buildings in large cities, their previous address, the current residents of those addresses, and so on. This sequence quickly adds lower-income neighborhoods, suggesting that strong migratory connections link the low-income market to new construction. Next, I combine the address histories with a simulation model to estimate that building 100 new market-rate …
Predictors Of Employment Growth And Unemployment In U.S. Central Cities, 1990-2010, Laura Wolf-Powers
Predictors Of Employment Growth And Unemployment In U.S. Central Cities, 1990-2010, Laura Wolf-Powers
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper considers employment growth and unemployment from 1990-2010 in a cross-section of cities in light of practical tools that city governments have at their disposal to provide relief. In particular, I test educational attainment (both initial levels and growth over time) and public capital investment as influences on job growth and changes in unemployment rates in 83 central cities in the United States. Change in educational attainment over time is suggestive of causing higher job growth and lower unemployment. The implication is that initiatives to attract and retain college-educated professionals and investments in increasing college attainment among incumbent residents …
The Revitalization Of Older Industrial Cities: A Review Essay Of Retooling For Growth, Timothy J. Bartik
The Revitalization Of Older Industrial Cities: A Review Essay Of Retooling For Growth, Timothy J. Bartik
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This review essay debates the policy issues raised by the book Retooling for Growth: Building a 21st Century Economy in America's Older Industrial Areas, edited by Richard M. McGahey and Jennifer S. Vey (Brookings Institution Press, 2008). I argue that the main rationale for adopting policies to revitalize older industrial cities is to improve the per capita earnings of urban residents. Therefore, urban economic development policy should be seen as urban labor market policy. Increasing city residents' earnings requires progress on two fronts: increasing metropolitan labor demand; increasing the quantity and quality of the effective labor supply of city residents …
Higher Education, The Health Care Industry, And Metropolitan Regional Economic Development: What Can "Eds & Meds" Do For The Economic Fortunes Of A Metro Area's Residents?, Timothy J. Bartik, George A. Erickcek
Higher Education, The Health Care Industry, And Metropolitan Regional Economic Development: What Can "Eds & Meds" Do For The Economic Fortunes Of A Metro Area's Residents?, Timothy J. Bartik, George A. Erickcek
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper examines the effects of expansions in higher educational institutions and the medical service industry on the economic development of a metropolitan area. This examination pulls together previous research and provides some new empirical evidence. We provide quantitative evidence of the magnitude of economic effects of higher education and medical service industries that occur through the mechanism of providing some export-base demand stimulus to a metropolitan economy. We also provide quantitative evidence on how much higher education institutions can boost a metropolitan economy through increasing the educational attainment of local residence. We estimate that medical service industries pay above …
How Do The Effects Of Local Growth On Employment Rates Vary With Initial Labor Market Conditions?, Timothy J. Bartik
How Do The Effects Of Local Growth On Employment Rates Vary With Initial Labor Market Conditions?, Timothy J. Bartik
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper examines how the effects of increased employment growth on a metropolitan area's employment to population ratio varies with the initial tightness of the metropolitan area's labor market. This examination is relevant to evaluating the benefits of local economic development policies in different metropolitan areas. Much of the benefits of such policies are in higher employment rates. The empirical estimates suggest that the effectiveness of employment growth in increasing the employment to population ratio is lower in metropolitan areas with "tight" labor markets. In addition, some estimates suggest that growth has the greatest long-run effects on the employment to …
Small Cities Blues: Looking For Growth Factors In Small And Medium-Sized Cities, George A. Erickcek, Hannah J. Mckinney
Small Cities Blues: Looking For Growth Factors In Small And Medium-Sized Cities, George A. Erickcek, Hannah J. Mckinney
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
The purpose of this exploratory study is to attempt to identify particular public policies which have the potential to increase the economic viability of smaller metropolitan areas and cities. We identify characteristics associated with smaller metro areas that performed better-than-expected (winners) and worse-than-expected (losers) during the 1990s, given their resources, industrial mix, and location as of 1990. Once these characteristics have been identified, we look for evidence that public policy choices may have promoted and enhanced a metro area's ability to succeed and to regain control of its own economic destiny. Methodologically, we construct a regression model which identifies the …
Black-White Segregation, Discrimination, And Home Ownership, Kelly Derango
Black-White Segregation, Discrimination, And Home Ownership, Kelly Derango
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
The effect of discrimination on black-white racial segregation is studied using a confidential supplement of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). Audit studies reveal that the rate of discrimination in rental housing is substantially higher than in owner-occupied housing. Thus, a variable indicating home ownership is used to proxy for the discrimination rate faced by blacks. The fixed-effects estimates of segregation imply that home ownership is associated with a decline in black-white segregation. This effect decreases slightly at higher income levels but increases substantially with the education of the head of household. Evidence is presented that the effect of …
Solving The Many Problems With Inner City Jobs, Timothy J. Bartik
Solving The Many Problems With Inner City Jobs, Timothy J. Bartik
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Inner-city business development is often proposed as a solution to inner-city poverty. However, research evidence suggests that creating new jobs in the inner city is unlikely by itself to significantly increase the employment or earnings of the inner city poor. Public subsidies for inner city business development may be justified by greater environmental, congestion, and fiscal benefits of inner city vs. suburban business location decisions. The research evidence suggests that some boost in inner city business development may be provided by a combination of economic development incentives with enhanced public services. A different set of policies must be used to …
A Note On Commutes And The Spatial Mismatch Hypothesis, Kelly Derango
A Note On Commutes And The Spatial Mismatch Hypothesis, Kelly Derango
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
A number of empirical studies have tested the spatial mismatch hypothesis by examining the commuting times of blacks and whites. This note points out that the link between spatial mismatch and commuting times may be weak when employment probabilities decline as the distance from job site to residence increases. A simple spatial model of urban employment is developed in which a fixed number of agents live in the central city. Two examples are presented in which increased spatial mismatch may either increase or decrease the average commuting time of central city minorities, depending on the rate at which employment probabilities …
Urban Labor Markets, Randall W. Eberts
Urban Labor Markets, Randall W. Eberts
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Urban labor markets are characterized by the spatial proximity of households and businesses, which offers firms and workers advantages that lead to more efficient markets, enhanced productivity, and greater economic success. Nevertheless, the nation's city, while generating a large proportion of the nation's wealth, houses much of the nation's economic disadvantaged workers. This paper describes the current conditions of urban labor markets and outlines a national urban policy agenda that addresses these concerns by taking into account cities' spatial dimension. The paper argues that a national urban labor policy should emphasize the effects of physical and informational proximity on growth, …
What Should The Federal Government Be Doing About Urban Economic Development?, Timothy J. Bartik
What Should The Federal Government Be Doing About Urban Economic Development?, Timothy J. Bartik
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
The federal government should focus its policies towards economic development on areas in which the federal government has some unique advantages. Federal policy should: (1) discourage financial subsidies to specific large firms by state and local governments; (2) expand the federal role in economic development services in which national action has some special advantages, such as developing information on foreign markets, encouraging large national banks to be more involved in economic development, supporting the development of the "Information Superhighway," and encouraging new technology development; (3) provide modest support for state and local efforts to increase business productivity through technology extension …
The Effects Of Metropolitan Job Growth On The Size Distribution Of Family Income, Timothy J. Bartik
The Effects Of Metropolitan Job Growth On The Size Distribution Of Family Income, Timothy J. Bartik
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper examines how a metropolitan area's job growth affects its income distribution. The research uses annual Current Population Survey data on the income distribution in different metropolitan areas from 1979 through 1988. Faster metropolitan job growth increases real family income in the lowest income quintile by a significantly greater percentage than for the average family. Metropolitan job growth also increases the value of property owned by upper income quintiles, but property value effects are not large enough to offset the progressive effects of growth on labor income. Simulations indicate that economic development programs to increase metropolitan job growth will …
Maximum Score Estimates Of The Determinants Of Residential Mobility: Implications For The Value Of Residential Attachment And Neighborhood Amenities, Timothy J. Bartik, J. S. Butler, Jin-Tan Liu
Maximum Score Estimates Of The Determinants Of Residential Mobility: Implications For The Value Of Residential Attachment And Neighborhood Amenities, Timothy J. Bartik, J. S. Butler, Jin-Tan Liu
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper examines the determinants of the decision of low-income renters to move out of their current dwelling. Maximum score estimation is shown to be superior to ordinary discrete choice estimation techniques (probit, logit) for this problem, and for similar discrete choices that require revering a previously optimal decision. The estimation reveals psychological costs from moving for typical low income renters of at least 8% of their income ; these costs are even higher for older, longer tenure, or minority households. Policies that displace low income renters will have large social costs. In addition, the estimation results are used to …