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Full-Text Articles in Economics
Labor Market Effects Of Paid Sick Leave: The Case Of Seattle, Hilary Wething, Meredith Slopen
Labor Market Effects Of Paid Sick Leave: The Case Of Seattle, Hilary Wething, Meredith Slopen
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
We investigate the impact of Seattle’s Paid Sick and Safety Time (PSST) policy on workers’ quarterly hours worked and separation hazard. Using Unemployment Insurance records from before and after the implementation of PSST, we examine individual-level employment behavior at the extensive and intensive margins and compare Seattle workers to workers in Washington state using a difference-in-differences strategy. Importantly, we consider how impacts vary by employment characteristics, including worker wage rate and tenure, and by firm characteristics, including industry and firm size. We find that PSST increased workers’ quarterly hours by 4.42 hours per quarter, or around 18 hours per year. …
Gender Gaps From Labor Market Shocks, Ria Ivandić, Anne Sophie Lassen
Gender Gaps From Labor Market Shocks, Ria Ivandić, Anne Sophie Lassen
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Job loss leads to persistent adverse labor market outcomes, but assessments of gender differences in labor market recovery are lacking. We utilize plant closures in Denmark to estimate gender gaps in labor market outcomes and document that women face an increased risk of unemployment and lose a larger share of their earnings in the two years following job displacement. When accounting for observable differences in human Capital across men and women, half of the gender gap in unemployment remains. In a standard decomposition framework, we document that child care imposes an important barrier to women’s labor market recovery regardless of …
Estimating The Effects Of The Ada Amendments Act On The Hiring And Termination Of Individuals With Disabilities, Using New Disability Categorizations, Patrick Button, Philip Armour, Simon Hollands
Estimating The Effects Of The Ada Amendments Act On The Hiring And Termination Of Individuals With Disabilities, Using New Disability Categorizations, Patrick Button, Philip Armour, Simon Hollands
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Disability discrimination laws are often used to potentially increase employment for individuals with disabilities. However, legal theory and empirical economics research do not provide conclusive answers as to how expansions in disability discrimination laws affect economic outcomes, namely hiring rates, for individuals with disabilities. We estimate the effect of the ADA Amendments Act (ADAAA) on employment transitions: hirings and terminations for individuals with disabilities relative to those without disabilities. To calculate employment transitions, we use data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). We also use the SIPP to develop additional measures and categorizations of disability based on …
Why Aren’T People Leaving Janesville? Industry Persistence, Trade Shocks, And Mobility, Sebastian Ottinger, Michael Poyker
Why Aren’T People Leaving Janesville? Industry Persistence, Trade Shocks, And Mobility, Sebastian Ottinger, Michael Poyker
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Particular industries have dominated many locations in the United States for more than a century. We show that individuals residing in such locations were systematically less likely to move away from there during the past few decades. By identifying locations with sizable employment shares in the same manufacturing industries in 1870 and 1980, we documented less out-migration in the decades following 1980 than earlier. In response to the largest shock affecting manufacturing employment since then, these locations adjusted differently: the “China shock” led to higher unemployment in their communities, but fewer people moved away. Drawing on rich data of social …
Income In The Off-Season: Household Adaptation To Yearly Work Interruptions, John Coglianese, Brendan M. Price
Income In The Off-Season: Household Adaptation To Yearly Work Interruptions, John Coglianese, Brendan M. Price
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Joblessness is highly seasonal. To analyze how households adapt to seasonal joblessness, we introduce a measure of seasonal work interruptions premised on the idea that a seasonal worker will tend to exit employment around the same time each year. We show that an excess share of prime-age U.S. workers experience recurrent separations spaced exactly 12 months apart. These separations coincide with aggregate seasonal downturns and are concentrated in seasonally volatile industries. Examining workers most prone to seasonal work interruptions, we find that these workers incur large earnings losses during the off-season. Lost earnings are 1) driven mainly by repeated separations …
The Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts Of The Covid-19 Pandemic, Guido Matias Cortes, Eliza C. Forsythe
The Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts Of The Covid-19 Pandemic, Guido Matias Cortes, Eliza C. Forsythe
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
We study the distributional consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic’s impacts on employment. Using CPS data on stocks and flows, we show that the pandemic has exacerbated pre-existing inequalities. Although employment losses have been widespread, they have been substantially larger in lower-paying occupations and industries. Individuals from disadvantaged groups, such as Hispanics, younger workers, those with lower levels of education, and women, have suffered both larger increases in job losses and larger decreases in hiring rates. Occupational and industry affiliation can explain only part of the increased job losses among these groups.
The Evolution Of Local Labor Markets After Recessions, Brad J. Hershbein, Bryan A. Stuart
The Evolution Of Local Labor Markets After Recessions, Brad J. Hershbein, Bryan A. Stuart
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper studies how U.S. local labor markets respond to employment losses that occur during recessions. Following recessions from 1973 through 2009, we find that areas that lose more jobs during the recession experience persistent relative declines in employment and population. Most importantly, these local labor markets also experience persistent decreases in the employment-population ratio, earnings per capita, and earnings per worker. Our results imply that limited population responses result in longer-lasting consequences for local labor markets than previously thought, and that recessions are followed by persistent reallocation of employment across space.
The Long-Term Effects Of Labor Market Entry In A Recession: Evidence From The Asian Financial Crisis, Eleanor Jawon Choi, Jaewoo Choi, Hyelim Son
The Long-Term Effects Of Labor Market Entry In A Recession: Evidence From The Asian Financial Crisis, Eleanor Jawon Choi, Jaewoo Choi, Hyelim Son
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper investigates the long-term effects of initial labor market conditions by comparing cohorts who graduated from college before, during, and after the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis in South Korea. We measure the overall welfare effect by examining their labor market activities, family formation, and household finances. Using data from 20 waves of the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study, we find a substantial and persistent reduction in employment, earnings, marriage, fertility, and asset building among men who graduated during a recession. For women, limited job opportunities at graduation result in an increase in childbearing. Our results suggest that labor …
Adverse Life Events And Intergenerational Transfers, Jessamyn Schaller, Chase Eck
Adverse Life Events And Intergenerational Transfers, Jessamyn Schaller, Chase Eck
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
While there has been broad interest in the direct effects of major life events on older households that experience them, little attention has been paid to the intergenerational transmission of those effects— how negative shocks in parents’ households affect the outcomes of their adult children—or to the role that grown children play in helping their parents recover from adverse events. We use regression and event study approaches to examine within-family changes in monetary transfers and informal care following wealth loss, involuntary job displacement, spousal death, and health shocks in retirement-aged households. We find that giving to adult children is responsive …
Computerization Of White Collar Jobs, Marcus O. Dillender, Eliza C. Forsythe
Computerization Of White Collar Jobs, Marcus O. Dillender, Eliza C. Forsythe
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
We investigate the impact of computerization of white-collar jobs on wages and employment. Using online job postings from 2007 and 2010-2016 for office and administrative support (OAS) jobs, we show that when firms adopt new software at the job-title level they increase the skills required of job applicants. Furthermore, firms change the task content of such jobs, broadening them to include tasks associated with higher-skill office functions. We aggregate these patterns to the local labor-market level, instrumenting for technology adoption with national measures. We find that a 1 standard deviation increase in OAS technology usages reduces employment in OAS occupations …
The Effect Of Job Referrals On Labor Market Outcomes In Brazil, Christopher J. O'Leary, Túlio Cravo, Ana Cristina Sierra, Leandro Justino Veloso
The Effect Of Job Referrals On Labor Market Outcomes In Brazil, Christopher J. O'Leary, Túlio Cravo, Ana Cristina Sierra, Leandro Justino Veloso
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper is the first to use program administrative data from Brazil’s National Employment System (SINE) to assess the impact of SINE job interview referrals on labor market outcomes. Data for a five-year period (2012–2016) are used to evaluate the impact of SINE on employment probability, wage rates, time until reemployment, and job tenure. Difference-in-differences estimates suggest that a SINE job interview referral increases the probability of finding a job within three months of the referral and reduces the number of months to find reemployment, the average job tenure of the next job, and the reemployment wage. Subgroup analysis suggests …
Unobserved Heterogeneity And Labor Market Discrimination, Miguel Sarzosa
Unobserved Heterogeneity And Labor Market Discrimination, Miguel Sarzosa
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Sexual minorities have historically been subject to many kinds of discrimination. Prejudicial treatment in the labor market could arguably be one of them. Despite that, economic literature has remained mostly silent on the topic. This paper fills that void by leveraging on a novel longitudinal data set that collects detailed information on sexual orientation. I develop an empirical strategy that exploits the fact that sexuality is not a dichotomous trait but rather a wide assortment of sexual preferences. I use empirical models that rely on the identification of unobserved heterogeneity, in the forms of skills and sexual orientation, to allow …
Health Shocks, Human Capital, And Labor Market Outcomes, Francisco Parro, R. Vincent Pohl
Health Shocks, Human Capital, And Labor Market Outcomes, Francisco Parro, R. Vincent Pohl
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Health, human capital, and labor market outcomes are linked though complex connections that are not fully understood. We explore these links by estimating a flexible yet tractable dynamic model of human capital accumulation in the presence of health shocks using administrative data from Chile. We find that (i) human capital mitigates the negative labor market effects of health events, (ii) these alleviating effects operate through channels involving occupational choice, the frequency of exposure to health events, and access to health care, and (iii) the effect of health shocks on labor market outcomes is heterogeneous across industries and types of diagnoses.
Careers Within Firms: Occupational Mobility Over The Life Cycle, Eliza C. Forsythe
Careers Within Firms: Occupational Mobility Over The Life Cycle, Eliza C. Forsythe
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
With falling labor market dynamism in the United States, opportunities within firms take on increasing importance in young workers’ career progression. Developing a variety of occupational ranking metrics, I show that occupational mobility within firms follows a standard life cycle pattern in which the frequency, distance, and wage return from mobility falls with age. However, when upward and downward mobility are considered separately, the average magnitude of directional mobility increases through middle age. I find that wage growth for young workers deteriorated substantially in the first decade of the 2000s, primarily driven by a reduction in wage growth within firms. …
Do Recessions Accelerate Routine-Biased Technological Change? Evidence From Vacancy Postings, Brad J. Hershbein, Lisa B. Kahn
Do Recessions Accelerate Routine-Biased Technological Change? Evidence From Vacancy Postings, Brad J. Hershbein, Lisa B. Kahn
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
We show that skill requirements in job vacancy postings differentially increased in MSAs that were hit hard by the Great Recession, relative to less hard-hit areas, and that these differences across MSAs persist through the end of 2015. The increases are prevalent within occupations, more pronounced in the non-traded sector, driven by both within-firm upskilling and substitution from older to newer firms, accompanied by increases in capital stock, and are evident in realized employment. We argue that this evidence reflects the restructuring of production toward more skilled workers and routine-labor saving technologies, and that the Great Recession accelerated this process.
Wage Insurance As A Policy Option In The United States, Stephen A. Wandner
Wage Insurance As A Policy Option In The United States, Stephen A. Wandner
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Wage insurance is a program that attempts to help permanently displaced workers transition to employment rapidly, effectively, and equitably. Because displaced workers have been found to suffer substantial earnings losses when they become reemployed, a wage insurance program provides a temporary wage supplement that partially reduces the wage loss experienced by targeted, newly reemployed workers. While participating workers receive a “wage supplement,” the program is called “wage insurance” because of its design as a social insurance program rather than an income transfer program. This paper provides a discussion of the development of wage insurance as a policy option in the …
The Impact Of Nurse Turnover On Quality Of Care And Mortality In Nursing Homes: Evidence From The Great Recession, Yaa Akosa Antwi, John R. Bowblis
The Impact Of Nurse Turnover On Quality Of Care And Mortality In Nursing Homes: Evidence From The Great Recession, Yaa Akosa Antwi, John R. Bowblis
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
We estimate the causal effect of nurse turnover on mortality and the quality of nursing home care with a fixed effect instrumental variable estimation that uses the unemployment rate as an instrument for nursing turnover. We find that ignoring endogeneity leads to a systematic underestimation of the effect of nursing turnover on mortality and quality of care in a sample of California nursing homes. Specifically, 10 percentage point increase in nurse turnover results in a facility receiving 2.2 additional deficiencies per annual regulatory survey, reflecting a 19.3 percent increase. Not accounting for endogeneity of turnover leads to results that suggest …
The Job Search Intensity Supply Curve: How Labor Market Conditions Affect Job Search Effort, Jeremy Schwartz
The Job Search Intensity Supply Curve: How Labor Market Conditions Affect Job Search Effort, Jeremy Schwartz
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
During the Great Recession of 2007, unemployment reached nearly 10 percent and the ratio of unemployment to open positions (as measured by the Help Wanted OnLine Index) more than tripled. The weak labor market prompted an unprecedented extension in the length of time in which a claimant can collect unemployment insurance (UI) to 99 weeks, at an expense to date of $226.4 billion. While many claim that extending UI during a recession will reduce search intensity, the effect of weak labor market conditions on search remains a mystery. As a result, policymakers are in the dark as to whether UI …
Aggregate Demand, Idle Time, And Unemployment, Pascal Michaillat, Emmanuel Saez
Aggregate Demand, Idle Time, And Unemployment, Pascal Michaillat, Emmanuel Saez
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper develops a model of unemployment fluctuations. The model keeps the architecture of the Barro and Grossman (1971) general disequilibrium model but replaces the disequilibrium framework on the labor and product markets by a matching framework. On the product and labor markets, both price and tightness adjust to equalize supply and demand. There is one more variable than equilibrium condition on each market, so we consider various price mechanisms to close the model, from completely flexible to completely rigid. With some price rigidity, aggregate demand influences unemployment through a simple mechanism: higher aggregate demand raises the probability that firms …
Social Costs Of Jobs Lost Due To Environmental Regulations, Timothy J. Bartik
Social Costs Of Jobs Lost Due To Environmental Regulations, Timothy J. Bartik
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper estimates the social costs of job loss due to environmental regulation. Per job lost, potential social costs of job loss are high, plausibly over $100,000 in present value costs (2012 dollars) per permanently lost job. However, these social costs will typically be far less than the earnings associated with lost jobs, because labor markets and workers adjust, increased leisure has some value, and employers benefit from wage reductions. A plausible range for social costs is 8–32 percent of the associated earnings of the lost jobs. Social costs will be higher for older workers, high-wage jobs, and in high …
Policies For Displaced Workers: An American Perspective, Christopher J. O'Leary
Policies For Displaced Workers: An American Perspective, Christopher J. O'Leary
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
American employment policy for displaced workers started in the Great Depression with programs for the employment service, unemployment insurance, work experience, and direct job creation. Assistance for workers displaced by foreign competition emerged in the 1960s along with formalized programs for occupational job skill training. The policy focus on displaced workers was sharpened in the 1980s through the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act and the Economic Dislocation and Worker Adjustment Assistance Act. Field experiments on services to dislocated workers led to Worker Profiling and Reemployment Services systems in all states, and federal rules adopted as part of the North …
Employment And Training Policy In The United States During The Economic Crisis, Christopher J. O'Leary, Randall W. Eberts
Employment And Training Policy In The United States During The Economic Crisis, Christopher J. O'Leary, Randall W. Eberts
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper examines labor market conditions and public employment policies in the United States during what some are calling the Great Recession. We document the dramatic labor market changes that rapidly unfolded when the rate of gross domestic product growth turned negative, from the end of 2007 through early 2009. The paper reviews the resulting stress on labor market support programs and the broad federal response. That response came through modifications to existing programs and the introduction of new mechanisms to help Americans cope with job loss and protracted unemployment. The particular focus is on federally supported public programs for …
Displacement, Asymmetric Information, And Heterogeneous Human Capital, Luojia Hu, Christopher Taber
Displacement, Asymmetric Information, And Heterogeneous Human Capital, Luojia Hu, Christopher Taber
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
In a seminal paper, Gibbons and Katz (1991) develop and empirically test an asymmetric information model of the labor market. The model predicts that wage losses following displacement should be larger for layoffs than for plant closings, which was borne out by data from the Displaced Workers Survey (DWS). In this paper, we take advantage of many more years of DWS data to examine how the difference in wage losses across plant closings and layoffs varies with race and gender. We find that the differences between white males and the other groups are striking and complex. The "lemons effect" of …
Wages, Layoffs, And Privatization: Evidence From Ukraine, J. David Brown, John S. Earle, Volodymyr Vakhitov
Wages, Layoffs, And Privatization: Evidence From Ukraine, J. David Brown, John S. Earle, Volodymyr Vakhitov
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper estimates the effects of privatization on worker separations and wages using retrospective data from a national probability sample of Ukrainian households. Detailed worker characteristics are used to control for compositional differences and to assess types of observable "winners" and "losers" from privatization. Preprivatization worker-firm matches are used to control for unobservables in worker and firm selection. The results imply that privatization reduces wages by 5 percent and cuts the layoff probability in half. Outside investor ownership reduces separations but leaves wages unaffected. Winners from privatization tend to be higher-skilled employees of larger firms, but there is no discernible …
The Incidence And Cost Of Job Loss In The Ukrainian Labor Market, Hartmut Lehmann, Norberto Pignatti, Jonathan Wadsworth
The Incidence And Cost Of Job Loss In The Ukrainian Labor Market, Hartmut Lehmann, Norberto Pignatti, Jonathan Wadsworth
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
We examine the effects of economic transition on the pattern and costs of worker displacement in Ukraine, using the Ukrainian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (ULMS) for the years 1992 to 2002. Displacement rates in the Ukrainian labor market average between 3.4 and 4.8 percent of employment, roughly in line with levels typically observed in several Western economies, but considerably larger than in Russia. The characteristics of displaced workers are similar to those displaced in the West, in so far as displacement is concentrated on the less skilled. Around one third of displaced workers find re-employment immediately while the majority continues into …
Do Job Search Rules And Reemployment Services Reduce Insured Unemployment?, Christopher J. O'Leary, Stephen A. Wandner
Do Job Search Rules And Reemployment Services Reduce Insured Unemployment?, Christopher J. O'Leary, Stephen A. Wandner
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper summarizes state unemployment insurance job search policies based on a recent survey of states by the National Association of State Workforce Agencies. It then reviews research results on the effects of reemployment services on durations of insured unemployment. The paper documents how state administrative practices have changed and questions whether these changes may have affected monitoring of claimant compliance with work search requirements. Since state policies on job search and service referral can affect insured durations of unemployment, these policies can also affect the measured total unemployment rate.
Group Wage Curves, Timothy J. Bartik
Group Wage Curves, Timothy J. Bartik
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Using panel data on U.S. MSAs, this paper estimates how a typical MSA's wages of different demographic groups, and prices, are affected by overall MSA unemployment, the distribution of unemployment among different groups, and national prices and wages. MSA unemployment has strong effects on MSA wages and prices, but the distribution of unemployment among different groups has weak effects on wages and prices. Using these estimates, simulations show that targeting high-unemployment groups for unemployment reductions will not reduce wage or price inflation pressures. The estimates also show that the effects of MSA unemployment on prices and disadvantaged groups' wages are …
The Implications Of Flexible Staffing Arrangements For Job Stability, Susan N. Houseman, Anne E. Polivka
The Implications Of Flexible Staffing Arrangements For Job Stability, Susan N. Houseman, Anne E. Polivka
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
In this paper, we examine the job stability of workers in a wide range of flexible staffing arrangements: agency temporary, direct-hire temporary, on-call, contract company, independent contractor, and regular part-time work. We draw upon two data sources in our analysis. The first is a nationwide survey of employers on their use of flexible staffing arrangements conducted by the Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. This survey provides evidence on why employers use various types of flexible staffing arrangements and the extent to which employers move workers in these positions into regular arrangements within their organization. The second data source is the …
Job Growth And The Quality Of Jobs In The U.S. Economy, Susan N. Houseman
Job Growth And The Quality Of Jobs In The U.S. Economy, Susan N. Houseman
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
During the 1980's employment grew rapidly in the United States, prompting many analysts to label the U.S. economy the great American job machine. But while aggregate employment increased rapidly during the 1980's, many did not benefit from the expansion. Among less educated prime-age males, unemployment rates rose and labor force participation rates declined sharply. Moreover, although job growth was high, many argued that the quality of American jobs as measured by wages, benefits, and job security deteriorated. The decline of jobs in the high-paying manufacturing sector and the growth of jobs in the low-paying services sector, the growth in part-time …
Wage-Rate Subsidies For Dislocated Workers, Carl Davidson, Stephen A. Woodbury
Wage-Rate Subsidies For Dislocated Workers, Carl Davidson, Stephen A. Woodbury
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
An array of innovative policies has been suggested to address more effectively the needs of dislocated workers. In this paper, we model and simulate the impacts of a wage-rate subsidy (or salary supplement) program in which a dislocated worker who becomes reemployed would receive a payment equal to one-half the difference between the wage previously earned and the wage currently earned. The simulations are based on a search model that is institutionally rich and that provides estimates of the impacts of a wage subsidy by incorporating empirical results from the reemployment bonus experiments that were conducted in the mid- to …