Economics Commons^™

Are Financing Constraints Binding For Investment? Evidence From A Natural Experiment, Katarzyna Anna Bilicka

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

This paper shows that the availability of cash flows dominates the effects of cost of capital for investment at the firm level. Using an exogenous tax reform in Canada as a quasi-natural experiment, I find that a temporary and unexpected increase in the cost of capital for firms with low availability of retained earnings has no effect on investment of those firms. A subsequent direct increase in the availability of cash flows has large effects on investment. This suggests that internal financing constraints are binding for firms, as they prefer to use low cost retained earnings to finance their investment.

Profit Shifting And Corruption, Katarzyna Anna Bilicka, André Seidel

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

This paper introduces heterogeneous profit shifting costs induced by corrupt tax officials to the analysis of profit shifting of multinationals. Using a theoretically derived corruption weighted tax differential, we show that corruption increases profit shifting of European firms. We use our estimates to calculate the implied tax revenue elasticities for European countries and find that countries with otherwise similar tax rates face lower tax revenue elasticities when they are more corrupt. This means that corruption negatively affects the revenue gains that countries could have from increasing their tax rates.

Comovement In The Cryptocurrency Market, Benjamin M. Blau, Todd Griffith, Ryan J. Whitby

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

This study examines the comovement between 17 of the most active cryptocurrencies. We are unable to statistically reject the presence of perfect comovement between Bitcoin and six of the 16 non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies. Consistent with the friction-based explanation for the presence of comovement, once the CBOE introduced futures contracts on Bitcoin, we find that all 16 cryptocurrencies comove with Bitcoin. These results suggest that introducing futures contracts improves the informational environment of the entire cryptocurrency market, which helps explain the unusual comovement in the cryptocurrency market.

Comparing Uk Tax Returns Of Foreign Multinationals To Matched Domestic Firms, Katarzyna Anna Bilicka

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

In this paper, I use confidential UK corporate tax returns data to explore whether there are systematic differences in the amount of taxable profits that multinational and domestic companies report. I find that the ratio of taxable profits to total assets reported by foreign multinational subsidiaries is one-half that of comparable domestic standalones. The majority of the difference is attributable to the fact that a higher proportion of foreign multinational subsidiaries report zero taxable profits. I document how the estimated difference is related to profit shifting and show that using accounting data leads to much smaller estimates of the difference.

The Introduction Of Bitcoin Futures: An Examination Of Volatility And Potential Spillover Effects, Benjamin M. Blau, Ryan J. Whitby

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

Theory in Stein (1987) suggests that introducing derivative contracts, such as futures, can destabilize underlying asset prices if the contracts attract enough speculative traders. This paper examines how the introduction of Bitcoin futures influences the underlying Bitcoin market. Consistent with Stein (1987), we find that that Bitcoin's volatility increases significantly during the post-introduction period. Perhaps more importantly, however, we observe significant spillover effects into related markets. For instance, in other cryptocurrencies, the increase in volatility in these markets is greater than the post-introduction increase in Bitcoin.

Smoothing, Discounting, And Demand For Intra-Household Control For Recipients Of Conditional Cash Transfers, Diego Aycinena, Szabolcs Blazsek, Lucas Rentschler, Betzy Sandoval

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

Inter-temporal preferences are important determinants of investment decisions, including investments in human capital. Yet, little is known about these preferences for recipients of conditional cash transfers (CCTs). We simultaneously estimate utility curvature (preference for consumption smoothing), discounting, and present biasedness for such recipients. We also introduce a financially motivated method of measuring willingness to forgo funds to control household finances. We find that female participants in a CCT program in Guatemala have very high degrees of utility curvature and low discount factors, which may lead to low levels of investment by participants in the human capital of the household. We …

Bounded Rationality And The Choice Of Jury Selection Procedures, Martin Van Der Linden

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

A peremptory-challenge procedure allows the parties to a jury trial to dismiss some prospective jurors without justification. Complex challenge procedures offer an unfair advantage to parties who are better able to strategize. I introduce a new measure of strategic complexity based on level-k thinking and use this measure to compare challenge procedures often used in practice. In applying this measure, I overturn some commonly held beliefs about which jury selection procedures are strategically simple.

Is Uber A Substitute Or Complement For Public Transit?, Jonathan D. Hall, Craig Palsson, Joseph Price

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

How Uber affects public transit ridership is a relevant policy question facing cities worldwide. Theoretically, Uber’s effect on transit is ambiguous: while Uber is an alternative mode of travel, it can also increase the reach and flexibility of public transit’s fixed-route, fixed-schedule service. We estimate the effect of Uber on public transit ridership using a difference-in-differences design that exploits variation across U.S. metropolitan areas in both the intensity of Uber penetration and the timing of Uber entry. We find that Uber is a complement for the average transit agency, increasing ridership by five percent after two years. This average effect …

Range-Based Volatility, Expected Stock Returns, And The Low Volatility Anomaly, Benjamin M. Blau, Ryan J. Whitby

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

One of the foundations of financial economics is the idea that rational investors will discount stocks with more risk (volatility), which will result in a positive relation between risk and future returns. However, the empirical evidence is mixed when determining how volatility is related to future returns. In this paper, we examine this relation using a range-based measure of volatility, which is shown to be theoretically, numerically, and empirically superior to other measures of volatility. In a variety of tests, we find that range-based volatility is negatively associated with expected stock returns. These results are robust to time-series multifactor models …

The Influence Of Height On Academic Outcomes, Devon Haskell Gorry

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

This paper examines whether the height premium for academic outcomes is driven by unequal opportunities for tall individuals. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health, this paper shows that taller individuals typically earn higher grades and attain more schooling, but the associations are not uniform across school size. Height is only associated with better outcomes for students attending large schools and these improvements are concentrated among males. Data suggest that height contributes more to sports participation and school satisfaction in large schools where resources are more scarce. Thus, differential opportunities or treatment across height in large schools …

The Impact Of Grade Ceilings On Student Grades And Course Evaluations: Evidence From A Policy Change, Devon Haskell Gorry

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

This paper analyzes the effects of a grade ceiling policy on grade distributions and course evaluations. Results show that the effects vary based upon the level of the grade ceiling. A ceiling set at 2.8 decreased overall grade point average (GPA) by reducing the number of As and Bs and increasing the number of lower grades given. This low ceiling also increased the number of withdrawals and significantly lowered course evaluations. A ceiling set at 3.2 decreased overall GPA by reducing the number of As and increasing the number of Bs given, but the effects on course evaluations were smaller …

The Integrity Of Financial Analysts: Evidence From Asymmetric Responses To Earnings Surprises, Rui Lu, Wenxuan Hou, Henry Oppenheimer, Ting Zhang

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

This paper investigates the integrity of financial analysts by examining their recommendation responses to large quarterly earnings surprises. Although there is no significant difference in recommendation changes between affiliated and unaffiliated analysts in response to positive earnings surprises, affiliated analysts are more reluctant than unaffiliated analysts to downgrade stock recommendations in response to negative earnings surprises. The evidence implies that conflicts of interest undermine the integrity of financial analysts. We further examine the effects of reputation concern and the Global Research Analyst Settlement as informal and formal mechanisms, on restoring analysts’ integrity. The results show that the positive bias in …

Experience And Worker Flows, Aspen Gorry

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

This paper studies the role of worker learning in a labor market where workers have incomplete information about the quality of their employment match. The amount of information about the quality of a new match depends on a worker’s past job experience. Allowing workers to learn from experience generates a decline in job finding probabilities with age that is consistent with patterns found in the data. Moreover, workers with more past experience will on average have less wage volatility on new jobs, which is also consistent with the data. In contrast to the fact that the cross-sectional wage distribution fans …

Hyperbolic Memory Discounting And The Political Business Cycle, T. Scott Findley

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

The vintage political business cycle framework of Nordhaus (1975) represents the idea that the macroeconomic business cycle is manipulated opportunistically by an incumbent government to achieve re-election. A key assumption in this prototypical framework is that voters discount their memories about unemployment and inflation at a constant rate. Yet starting with Ebbinghaus (1885) and Jost (1897), a large body of research in psychology documents an empirical regularity that has come to be known as Jost's Second Law of Forgetting-individuals discount recent memories at a higher rate compared to the rate at which they discount older memories. I find that incorporating …

Numerical Simulations Of Competition In Quantities, Devon Haskell Gorry, John Gilbert

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

We present a series of numerical simulation models built in Excel that can be used to explore the properties of various models of strategic competition in quantities and their economic implications. The resources incorporate both tabular and graphical data presentation formats and are built in such a way that they provide instant or ‘live’ feedback on the consequences of changes in the economic system. We discuss the theory behind the models, how they can be implemented as numerical simulations in Excel, and ways in which the simulations can be used to enhance student understanding of the material.

A Framework For Non-Drastic Innovation With Product Differentiation, Jeremy Jay Jackson, Jason Smith

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

We model non-drastic technological innovation in a duopoly model with differentiated products. We derive profit functions for both firms which depend on only one variable, the technological gap. As our model derives product demands directly from agent utility we are able to fully describe the welfare effects of innovation. We show that the welfare improvements from innovation come not only as firms accrue higher profits, by charging consumers higher prices, but also as consumers enjoy higher quality products.

An Analysis Of Risk-Taking Behavior For Public Defined Benefit Pension Plans, Nancy Mohan, Ting Zhang

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

This paper presents the first comprehensive study on the determinants of public pension fund investment risk and reports several new important findings. Unlike private pension plans, public funds undertake more risk if they are underfunded and have lower investment returns in the previous years, consistent with the risk transfer hypothesis. Furthermore, pension funds in states facing fiscal constraints allocate more assets to equity and have higher betas. There also appears to be a herding effect in that CalPERS equity allocation or beta is mimicked by other pension funds. Finally, our results suggest that government accounting standards strongly affect pension fund …

Corporate Lobbying, Political Connections, And The Bailout Of Banks, Diana W. Thomas, Benjamin M. Blau, Tyler Brough

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

Political involvement has long been shown to be a profitable investment for firms that seek favorable regulatory conditions or support in times of economic distress. But how important are different types of political involvement for the timing and magnitude of political support? To answer this question, we take a comprehensive look at the lobbying expenditures and political connections of banks that were recipients of government support under the 2008 Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). We find that politically engaged firms were not only more likely to receive TARP support, but they also received a greater amount of TARP support and …

Teacher Qualifications And Student Achievement: A Panel Data Of Analysis, Trevor Collier

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

Recent academic research suggests that teacher quality plays an important role in student achievement: however, empirical research on the efficacy of policies requiring teachers to obtain certain degrees is inconclusive, particularly in elementary education. This paper models a panel data production function with fixed effects using the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study (ECLS-K) to asses the relationship between different undergraduate and graduate majors and elementary student test scores. Specifcally, we aim to discern if there is a difference in teacher efficacy within the different education related majors (e.g. early childhood education and elementary education) and between education and non-education related majors.

What Determines Public Pension Investment Risk-Taking Policy, Nancy Mohan, Ting Zhang

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

State public pension plans, mostly defined benefit plans, cover pension benefits for 12.8 million active public employees and 5.9 million retirees and other annuitants. However, by the end of 2009, public pension plans had accumulated a total funding deficit of $697 billion (measured by the difference between actuarial pension assets and liabilities). On average, public pension funds cover 75 percent of their liabilities, but individual state results vary greatly.

The 2008 stock market crash strongly affected pension asset value in that equity allocation on average accounted for 56 percent of invested assets. The average 2009 pension asset beta of 0.63 …

Upjohn Institute Policy Paper: Public Pension Crisis And Investment Risk Taking: Underfunding, Fiscal Constraints, Public Accounting, And Policy Implications, Nancy Mohan, Ting Zhang

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

Public pension funds that cover retirement benefits for almost 20 million active or retired employees have been significantly underfunded. An important, though largely overlooked, issue related to pension underfunding is the excessive investment risk levels assumed by public plans. Our analysis suggests government accounting standards strongly affect public fund investment risk, as higher return assumptions (used to discount pension liabilities) are associated with higher investment risk.

Public funds undertake more risk if they are underfunded and have lower investment returns in previous years, consistent with the risk transfer hypothesis. Furthermore, pension funds in states facing fiscal constraints allocate more assets …

The Impact Of Institutional Arrangements On Educational Efficiency, Trevor Collier

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

Per-pupil expenditures on education in the United States have grown immensely in recent decades, yet student achievement has been stagnant. An abundance of research has sought to solve this enigma, much of it centered on the incentive structure facing administrators. Some recent papers use TIMSS data to analyze the relationship between institutional arrangements—that typically do not vary within a single country—and student achievement. Similarly, we utilize TIMSS 1999 to determine if there is an indirect relationship between institutional arrangements and student achievement, via a relationship with school efficiency. Our results show that the specified link between institutional arrangements and student …

Government Ideology, Democracy And The Sacrifice Ratio: Evidence From Latin American And Caribbean Disinflations, Tony Caporale

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

This study uses a sample of 34 disinflations undertaken by thirteen Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) nations to test if political institutions impact the cost of policy induced disinflations. We find, after controlling for several of the most important covariates in the literature, that disinflations are less costly for right vs. left governments and that sacrifice ratios are lower for more democratic vs. authoritarian governmental regimes. This is robust to different measures of government ideology as well as to alternative ways of computing the sacrifice ratio and lends support for political economy literature which argues that political institutions have significant …

A Positive Political Model Of Supreme Court Economic Decisions, Tony Caporale, Harold Winter

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

We develop a positive political model of the U.S. Supreme Court. Looking at the Court's economic cases for the period 1953-1993, we find a significant larger fraction of conservative decisions under Republican presidents and more conservative leadership of the House and Senate Judiciary Committees. Conservative decisions are also found to be positively correlated with the fraction of the Court appointed by Republican presidents and the rate of price inflation. We argue that our findings cast serious doubt on the common view of the Supreme Court as a completely independent, apolitical institution.

A Political Model Of Monetary Policy With Application To The Real Fed Funds Rate, Tony Caporale, Kevin B. Grier

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

We construct an empirical model of U.S. monetary policy assuming that the Federal Reserve is an ordinary federal bureaucracy. We use the real Federal Funds rate as our policy measure and show the existence of significant executive, legislative, and bureaucratic influence on the real rate of interest from 1961 to 1996. We find that presidential party is an adequate statistical measure of executive influence and that the voting scores of the Senate Banking Committee leadership best represent legislative influence. We argue that political changes cause systematic and predictable changes in monetary policy.

The Fischer Black Hypothesis: Some Time-Series Evidence, Tony Caporale, Barbara Mckiernan

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

We estimate an ARCH-M model to analyze the relationship between the conditional standard deviation of real gross national product (GNP) and its growth rate for the period 1871-1993. We find that variability significantly increases output growth rates. In addition, impulse response functions show that the effect of variability on growth rates is dynamic. These results provide evidence in favor of Black's (1987) business cycle hypothesis.

Tobin, James, Tony Caporale

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

James Tobin was born in Champaign, Illinois, in 1918. He received his bachelor's degree in 1939 and his master's degree in 1940, both from Harvard. Following naval service during the years 1942-6, he returned to his graduate studies and received his PhD from Harvard in 1947. In 1950, he joined the economics department at Yale University, and he has largely remained at Yale and has been identified with this institution throughout his career. He twice directed the Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, first from 1955 to 1961, and then from 1964 to 1965. He also served for two years, …

The Effect Of Right-To-Work Laws On Unionization In The United States, H. Craig Petersen, Keith Lumsden

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

State right-to-work laws, the subject of considerable controversy in the industrial relations field, typically state that no person will be required to become a union member or, conversely, be required to abstain from union membership as a condition of obtaining or retaining employment. Little hard evidence exists on the effect of right-to-work laws. Meyers (1955) concludes that in Texas the law does not appear to have had a noticeable impact on union strength. Kuhlman (1955) finds that the Virginia law has caused little change in hiring practices, and he cites lack of enforcement as a major cause. Novit (1969), in …

An Empirical Test Of Regulatory Effects, H. Craig Petersen

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

Averch and Johnson have provided analytical support for the assertion that rate of return regulation causes inefficient production because of the overuse of capital. Empirical evidence in support or refutation of their thesis is just beginning to appear. This paper provides additional evidence. The regulated firm's objective is stated in terms of cost minimization subject to a regulatory constraint. The effect of changes in the allowed rate of return on capital are evaluated. It is shown that as the allowed return approaches the cost of capital, costs increase and the percentage of total costs paid to capital also increases. These …