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(Wp 2020-03) The Effect Of Central Bank Credibility On Forward Guidance In An Estimated New Keynesian Model, Stephen J. Cole, Enrique Martínez-García
(Wp 2020-03) The Effect Of Central Bank Credibility On Forward Guidance In An Estimated New Keynesian Model, Stephen J. Cole, Enrique Martínez-García
Economics Working Papers
This paper examines the effectiveness of forward guidance in an estimated New Keynesian model with imperfect central bank credibility. We estimate credibility for the U.S. Federal Reserve with Bayesian methods exploiting survey data on interest rate expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The results provide important takeaways: (1) The estimate of Federal Reserve credibility in terms of for- ward guidance announcements is relatively high, which indicates a degree of forward guidance effectiveness, but still one that is below the fully credible case. Hence, anticipation effects are attenuated and, accordingly, output and inflation do not respond as favorably to …
(Wp 2016-02) The Limits Of Central Bank Forward Guidance Under Learning, Stephen J. Cole
(Wp 2016-02) The Limits Of Central Bank Forward Guidance Under Learning, Stephen J. Cole
Economics Working Papers
Central bank forward guidance emerged as a pertinent tool for monetary policymakers since the Great Recession. Nevertheless, the effects of forward guidance remain unclear. This paper investigates the effectiveness of forward guidance while relaxing two standard macroeconomic assumptions: rational expectations and frictionless financial markets. Agents forecast future macroeconomic variables via either the rational expectations hypothesis or a more plausible theory of expectations formation called adaptive learning. A standard Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model is extended to include the financial accelerator mechanism. The results show that the addition of financial frictions amplifies the differences between rational expectations and adaptive learning …