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- Binomial economy (4)
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- Matrix games (4)
- Bounded rationality (3)
- Diluted leverage (3)
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- Nash equilibrium (2)
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- Social ethos (2)
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- Stochastic games (2)
- Structural properties of markets (2)
- Teaching and computerized games (2)
- Unit root test (2)
- Adaptive shrinkage; Automation; Cointegrating rank (1)
Articles 1 - 30 of 53
Full-Text Articles in Economics
Cost Innovation: Schumpeter And Equilibrium. Part 2: Innovation And The Money Supply, Martin Shubik, William D. Sudderth
Cost Innovation: Schumpeter And Equilibrium. Part 2: Innovation And The Money Supply, Martin Shubik, William D. Sudderth
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The control structure over money and real assets is considered in the process of cost innovation. The work here contrasts with the first part of this paper where the emphasis was on the physical aspects of innovation. Here the emphasis is primarily on the money supply aspects of innovation. We conclude with observations on evaluation and the locus of control in the process of innovation.
An Estimation Of Economic Models With Recursive Preferences, Xiaohong Chen, Jack Favilukis, Sydney C. Ludvigson
An Estimation Of Economic Models With Recursive Preferences, Xiaohong Chen, Jack Favilukis, Sydney C. Ludvigson
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper presents estimates of key preference parameters of the Epstein and Zin (1989, 1991) and Weil (1989) (EZW) recursive utility model, evaluates the model’s ability to fit asset return data relative to other asset pricing models, and investigates the implications of such estimates for the unobservable aggregate wealth return. Our empirical results indicate that the estimated relative risk aversion parameter ranges from 17-60, with higher values for aggregate consumption than for stockholder consumption, while the estimated elasticity of intertemporal substitution is above one. In addition, the estimated model-implied aggregate wealth return is found to be weakly correlated with the …
Mathematical Institutional Economics, Martin Shubik
Mathematical Institutional Economics, Martin Shubik
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
An overview is given of the utilization of strategic market games in the development of a game theory based theory of money and financial institutions.
Wealth Effects Revisited 1975-2012, Karl E. Case, John M. Quigley, Robert J. Shiller
Wealth Effects Revisited 1975-2012, Karl E. Case, John M. Quigley, Robert J. Shiller
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We re-examine the links between changes in housing wealth, financial wealth, and consumer spending. We extend a panel of U.S. states observed quarterly during the seventeen-year period, 1982 through 1999, to the thirty-seven year period, 1975 through 2012Q2. Using techniques reported previously, we impute the aggregate value of owner-occupied housing, the value of financial assets, and measures of aggregate consumption for each of the geographic units over time. We estimate regression models in levels, first differences and in error-correction form, relating per capita consumption to per capita income and wealth. We find a statistically significant and rather large effect of …
Asymptotic Efficiency Of Semiparametric Two-Step Gmm, Xiaohong Chen, Jinyong Hahn, Zhipeng Liao
Asymptotic Efficiency Of Semiparametric Two-Step Gmm, Xiaohong Chen, Jinyong Hahn, Zhipeng Liao
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
In this note, we characterize the semiparametric efficiency bound for a class of semiparametric models in which the unknown nuisance functions are identified via nonparametric conditional moment restrictions with possibly non-nested or over-lapping conditioning sets, and the finite dimensional parameters are potentially over-identified via unconditional moment restrictions involving the nuisance functions. We discover a surprising result that semiparametric two-step optimally weighted GMM estimators achieve the efficiency bound, where the nuisance functions could be estimated via any consistent nonparametric procedures in the first step. Regardless of whether the efficiency bound has a closed form expression or not, we provide easy-to-compute sieve …
What Have They Been Thinking? Home Buyer Behavior In Hot And Cold Markets, Karl E. Case, Robert J. Shiller, Anne K. Thompson
What Have They Been Thinking? Home Buyer Behavior In Hot And Cold Markets, Karl E. Case, Robert J. Shiller, Anne K. Thompson
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Questionnaire surveys we have undertaken in 1988 and annually 2003–2012 of recent homebuyers in each of four U.S. cities shed light on their expectations and reasons for buying and selling during the recent housing boom and subsequent collapse, and on the reasons for the housing crisis that initiated the current financial malaise. We find that homebuyers were generally well informed, and that their short-run expectations if anything underreacted to the year-to-year change in actual home prices. More of the root causes of the bubble can be seen in their long-term, ten-year, home price expectations, which reached abnormal levels relative to …
Non-Linearity Induced Weak Instrumentation, Ioannis Kasparis, Peter C.B. Phillips, Tassos Magdalinos
Non-Linearity Induced Weak Instrumentation, Ioannis Kasparis, Peter C.B. Phillips, Tassos Magdalinos
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
In regressions involving integrable functions we examine the limit properties of IV estimators that utilise integrable transformations of lagged regressors as instruments. The regressors can be either I(0) or nearly integrated (NI) processes. We show that this kind of nonlinearity in the regression function can significantly affect the relevance of the instruments. In particular, such instruments become weak when the signal of the regressor is strong, as it is in the NI case. Instruments based on integrable functions of lagged NI regressors display long range dependence and so remain relevant even at long lags, continuing to contribute to variance reduction …
Nonparametric Predictive Regression, Ioannis Kasparis, Elena Andreou, Peter C.B. Phillips
Nonparametric Predictive Regression, Ioannis Kasparis, Elena Andreou, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
A unifying framework for inference is developed in predictive regressions where the predictor has unknown integration properties and may be stationary or nonstationary. Two easily implemented nonparametric F-tests are proposed. The test statistics are related to those of Kasparis and Phillips (2012) and are obtained by kernel regression. The limit distribution of these predictive tests holds for a wide range of predictors including stationary as well as non-stationary fractional and near unit root processes. In this sense the proposed tests provide a unifying framework for predictive inference, allowing for possibly nonlinear relationships of unknown form, and offering robustness to integration …
Leverage And Default In Binomial Economies: A Complete Characterization, Ana Fostel, John Geanakoplos
Leverage And Default In Binomial Economies: A Complete Characterization, Ana Fostel, John Geanakoplos
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Our paper provides a complete characterization of leverage and default in binomial economies with financial assets serving as collateral. Our Binomial No-Default Theorem states that any equilibrium is equivalent (in real allocations and prices) to another equilibrium in which there is no default. Thus actual default is irrelevant, though the potential for default drives the equilibrium and limits borrowing. This result is valid with arbitrary preferences and endowments, contingent or non-contingent promises, many assets and consumption goods, production, and multiple periods. We also show that no-default equilibria would be selected if there were the slightest cost of using collateral or …
Wages And Informality In Developing Countries, Costas Meghir, Renata Narita, Jean-Marc Robin
Wages And Informality In Developing Countries, Costas Meghir, Renata Narita, Jean-Marc Robin
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
It is often argued that informal labor markets in developing countries promote growth by reducing the impact of regulation. On the other hand informality may reduce the amount of social protection offered to workers. We extend the wage-posting framework of Burdett and Mortensen (1998) to allow heterogeneous firms to decide whether to locate in the formal or the informal sector, as well as set wages. Workers engage in both off the job and on the job search. We estimate the model using Brazilian micro data and evaluate the labor market and welfare effects of policies towards informality.
On Confidence Intervals For Autoregressive Roots And Predictive Regression, Peter C.B. Phillips
On Confidence Intervals For Autoregressive Roots And Predictive Regression, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
A prominent use of local to unity limit theory in applied work is the construction of confidence intervals for autogressive roots through inversion of the ADF t statistic associated with a unit root test, as suggested in Stock (1991). Such confidence intervals are valid when the true model has an autoregressive root that is local to unity (τ = 1 + ( c/n )) but are invalid at the limits of the domain of definition of the localizing coefficient c because of a failure in tightness and the escape of probability mass. Consideration of the boundary case shows that these …
Series Estimation Of Stochastic Processes: Recent Developments And Econometric Applications, Peter C.B. Phillips, Zhipeng Liao
Series Estimation Of Stochastic Processes: Recent Developments And Econometric Applications, Peter C.B. Phillips, Zhipeng Liao
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper overviews recent developments in series estimation of stochastic processes and some of their applications in econometrics. Underlying this approach is the idea that a stochastic process may under certain conditions be represented in terms of a set of orthonormal basis functions, giving a series representation that involves deterministic functions. Several applications of this series approximation method are discussed. The first shows how a continuous function can be approximated by a linear combination of Brownian motions (BMs), which is useful in the study of the spurious regressions. The second application utilizes the series representation of BM to investigate the …
Automated Estimation Of Vector Error Correction Models, Zhipeng Liao, Peter C.B. Phillips
Automated Estimation Of Vector Error Correction Models, Zhipeng Liao, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Model selection and associated issues of post-model selection inference present well known challenges in empirical econometric research. These modeling issues are manifest in all applied work but they are particularly acute in multivariate time series settings such as cointegrated systems where multiple interconnected decisions can materially affect the form of the model and its interpretation. In cointegrated system modeling, empirical estimation typically proceeds in a stepwise manner that involves the determination of cointegrating rank and autoregressive lag order in a reduced rank vector autoregression followed by estimation and inference. This paper proposes an automated approach to cointegrated system modeling that …
The Strategic Impact Of Higher-Order Beliefs, Yi-Chun Chen, Alfredo Di Tillio, Eduardo Faingold, Siyang Xiong
The Strategic Impact Of Higher-Order Beliefs, Yi-Chun Chen, Alfredo Di Tillio, Eduardo Faingold, Siyang Xiong
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Previous research has established that the predictions made by game theory about strategic behavior in incomplete information games are quite sensitive to the assumptions made about the players’ infinite hierarchies of beliefs. We evaluate the severity of this robustness problem by characterizing conditions on the primitives of the model — the players’ hierarchies of beliefs — for the strategic behavior of a given Harsanyi type to be approximated by the strategic behavior of (a sequence of) perturbed types. This amounts to providing characterizations of the strategic topologies of Dekel, Fudenberg, and Morris (2006) in terms of beliefs. We apply our …
What Have They Been Thinking? Homebuyer Behavior In Hot And Cold Markets — A 2014 Update, Karl E. Case, Robert J. Shiller, Anne K. Thompson
What Have They Been Thinking? Homebuyer Behavior In Hot And Cold Markets — A 2014 Update, Karl E. Case, Robert J. Shiller, Anne K. Thompson
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Questionnaire surveys undertaken in 1988 and annually from 2003 through 2014 of recent homebuyers in each of four U.S. metropolitan areas shed light on their expectations and reasons for buying during the recent housing boom and subsequent collapse. They also provide insight into the reasons for the housing crisis that initiated the current financial malaise. We find that homebuyers were generally well informed, and that their short-run expectations if anything underreacted to the year-to-year change in actual home prices. More of the root causes of the housing bubble can be seen in their long-term (10-year) home price expectations, which reached …
Endogenous Leverage In A Binomial Economy: The Irrelevance Of Actual Default, Ana Fostel, John Geanakoplos
Endogenous Leverage In A Binomial Economy: The Irrelevance Of Actual Default, Ana Fostel, John Geanakoplos
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We show that binomial economies with financial assets are an informative and tractable model to study endogenous leverage and collateral equilibrium: endogenous leverage can be highly volatile, but it is always easy to compute. The possibility of default can have a dramatic effect on equilibrium, if collateral is scarce, yet we prove the No-Default Theorem asserting that, without loss of generality, there is no default in equilibrium. Thus potential default has a dramatic effect on equilibrium, but actual default does not. This result is valid with arbitrary preferences, contingent promises, many assets and consumption goods, production, and multiple periods. On …
Leverage And Default In Binomial Economies: A Complete Characterization, Ana Fostel, John Geanakoplos
Leverage And Default In Binomial Economies: A Complete Characterization, Ana Fostel, John Geanakoplos
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Our paper provides a complete characterization of leverage and default in binomial economies with financial assets serving as collateral. First, our Binomial No-Default Theorem states that any equilibrium is equivalent (in real allocations and prices) to another equilibrium in which there is no default. Thus actual default is irrelevant, though the potential for default drives the equilibrium and limits borrowing. This result is valid with arbitrary preferences and endowments, arbitrary promises, many assets and consumption goods, production, and multiple periods. We also show that the no-default equilibrium would be selected if there were the slightest cost of using collateral or …
Leverage And Default In Binomial Economies: A Complete Characterization, Ana Fostel, John Geanakoplos
Leverage And Default In Binomial Economies: A Complete Characterization, Ana Fostel, John Geanakoplos
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Our paper provides a complete characterization of leverage and default in binomial economies with financial assets serving as collateral. Our Binomial No-Default Theorem states that any equilibrium is equivalent (in real allocations and prices) to another equilibrium in which there is no default. Thus actual default is irrelevant, though the potential for default drives the equilibrium and limits borrowing. This result is valid with arbitrary preferences and endowments, contingent or non-contingent promises, many assets and consumption goods, production, and multiple periods. We also show that no-default equilibria would be selected if there were the slightest cost of using collateral or …
Matching With Incomplete Information, Quingmin Liu, George J. Mailath, Andrew Postlewaite, Larry Samuelson
Matching With Incomplete Information, Quingmin Liu, George J. Mailath, Andrew Postlewaite, Larry Samuelson
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
A large literature uses matching models to analyze markets with two-sided heterogeneity, studying problems such as the matching of students to schools, residents to hospitals, husbands to wives, and workers to firms. The analysis typically assumes that the agents have complete information, and examines core outcomes. We formulate a notion of stable outcomes in matching problems with one-sided asymmetric information. The key conceptual problem is to formulate a notion of a blocking pair that takes account of the inferences that the uninformed agent might make from the hypothesis that the current allocation is stable. We show that the set of …
Runs, Panics And Bubbles: Diamond-Dybvig And Morris-Shin Reconsidered, Eric Smith, Martin Shubik
Runs, Panics And Bubbles: Diamond-Dybvig And Morris-Shin Reconsidered, Eric Smith, Martin Shubik
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The basic two-noncooperative-equilibrium-point model of Diamond and Dybvig is considered along with the work of Morris and Shin utilizing the possibility of outside noise to select a unique equilibrium point. Both of these approaches are essentially nondynamic. We add an explicit replicator dynamic from evolutionary game theory to provide for a sensitivity analysis that encompasses both models and contains the results of both depending on parameter settings.
Notes On Computational Complexity Of Ge Inequalities, Donald J. Brown
Notes On Computational Complexity Of Ge Inequalities, Donald J. Brown
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Recently, Cheryche et al. (2011) proved the important negative result that deciding the strong feasibility of the Marshallian equilibrium inequalities, introduced by Brown and Matzkin (1996), is NP-complete. Here, I show that the weak feasibility of the equivalent Hicksian equilibrium inequalities, introduced by Brown and Shannon (2000), can be decided in oracle-polynomial time.
The Anatomy Of French Production Hierarchies, Lorenzo Caliendo, Ferdinando Monte, Esteban Rossi-Hansberg
The Anatomy Of French Production Hierarchies, Lorenzo Caliendo, Ferdinando Monte, Esteban Rossi-Hansberg
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We use a comprehensive dataset of French manufacturing firms to study their internal organization. We first divide the employees of each firm into ‘layers’ using occupational categories. Layers are hierarchical in that the typical worker in a higher layer earns more, and the typical firm occupies less of them. In addition, the probability of adding (dropping) a layer is very positively (negatively) correlated with value added. We then explore the changes in the wages and number of employees that accompany expansions in layers, output, or markets (by becoming exporters). The empirical results indicate that reorganization, through changes in layers, is …
Notes On Computational Complexity Of Ge Inequalities, Donald J. Brown
Notes On Computational Complexity Of Ge Inequalities, Donald J. Brown
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper is a revision of my paper, CFDP 1865. The principal innovation is an equivalent reformulation of the decision problem for weak feasibility of the GE inequalities, using polynomial time ellipsoid methods, as a semidefinite optimization problem, using polynomial time interior point methods. We minimize the maximum of the Euclidean distances between the aggregate endowment and the Minkowski sum of the sets of consumer’s Marshallian demands in each observation. We show that this is an instance of the generic semidefinite optimization problem: inf x in K f ( x ) ≡ Opt ( K,f ), the optimal value of …
Simple Agents, Intelligent Markets, Karim Jamal, Michael Maier, Shyam Sunder
Simple Agents, Intelligent Markets, Karim Jamal, Michael Maier, Shyam Sunder
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Attainment of rational expectations equilibria in asset markets calls for the price system to disseminate agents’ private information to others. Markets populated by human agents are known to be capable of converging to rational expectations equilibria. This paper reports comparable market outcomes when human agents are replaced by boundedly-rational algorithmic agents who use a simple means-end heuristic. These algorithmic agents lack the capability to optimize; yet outcomes of markets populated by them converge near the equilibrium derived from optimization assumptions. These findings point to market structure (rather than cognition or optimization) being an important determinant of efficient aggregate level outcomes.
What Is A Solution To A Matrix Game, Martin Shubik
What Is A Solution To A Matrix Game, Martin Shubik
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
These notes are provided to describe many of the problems encountered concerning both structure and behavior in specifying what is meant by the solution to a game of strategy in matrix or strategic form. In the short term in particular, it is often reasonable for the individual to accept as given, both the context in which decisions are being made and the formal structure of the rules of the game. A solution is usually considered as a complete set of equations of motion that when applied to the game at hand selects a final outcome. There are many different theories …
What Is A Solution To A Matrix Game, Martin Shubik
What Is A Solution To A Matrix Game, Martin Shubik
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
These notes are provided to describe many of the problems encountered concerning both structure and behavior in specifying what is meant by the solution to a game of strategy in matrix or strategic form. In the short term in particular, it is often reasonable for the individual to accept as given, both the context in which decisions are being made and the formal structure of the rules of the game. A solution is usually considered as a complete set of equations of motion that when applied to the game at hand selects a final outcome. There are many different theories …
Decoupling Markets And Individuals: Rational Expectations Equilibrium Outcomes From Information Dissemination Among Boundedly-Rational Traders, Karim Jamal, Michael Maier, Shyam Sunder
Decoupling Markets And Individuals: Rational Expectations Equilibrium Outcomes From Information Dissemination Among Boundedly-Rational Traders, Karim Jamal, Michael Maier, Shyam Sunder
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Attainment of rational expectations equilibria in asset markets calls for the price system to disseminate traders’ private information to others. It is known that markets populated by asymmetrically-informed profit-motivated human traders can converge to rational expectations equilibria. This paper reports comparable market outcomes when human traders are replaced by boundedly-rational algorithmic agents who use a simple means-end heuristic. These algorithmic agents lack the capability to optimize; yet outcomes of markets populated by them converge near the equilibrium derived from optimization assumptions. These findings suggest that market structure is an important determinant of efficient aggregate level outcomes, and that care is …
The Financing Of A Public Utility, Eric Smith, Martin Shubik
The Financing Of A Public Utility, Eric Smith, Martin Shubik
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The interaction of capital stock with overlapping generations is investigated where the time structures of human capital and other physical capital does not match. We consider the economies with either gold or fiat as the outside money and consider the financing problems that appear in the financing of capital stock. The complexity of the underlying physical structure combined with concern for efficiency and equity help to determine the financial structure.
How Should The Fed Report Uncertainty?, Ray C. Fair
How Should The Fed Report Uncertainty?, Ray C. Fair
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
In January 2012 the Fed began reporting ranges of its economic forecasts. The ranges, however, measure differences of opinion, not variances of economic forecasts. This paper discusses what the Fed could report in a world in which it used a single macroeconometric model to make its forecasts and guide its policies. Suggestions are then made as to what might be feasible for the Fed to report given that it is unlikely to be willing to commit to a single model.
A Web Gaming Facility For Research And Teaching, Martin Shubik
A Web Gaming Facility For Research And Teaching, Martin Shubik
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This essay considers the potential for utilizing web games for research and teaching. It discusses a specific gaming facility that has been constructed and utilized. The gaming facility can be made available for use for those interested in utilizing it for teaching and/or research purposes. The goal is to have this facility be of use for both single play and repeated matrix games. Much of the discussion here is aimed at single play games as a desirable benchmark preliminary to the study of repeated games. Properties of the one stage games are discussed and instructions for the use of the …