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Articles 1 - 30 of 39
Full-Text Articles in Economics
English Translation, Yale University Press, James Tobin
English Translation, Yale University Press, James Tobin
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Eduard Marz’s book was first published in German in 1983. I have read only his English translation, which he had completed with preliminary revisions, though not alas with final polishing, before his death in 1987. The book illuminates for us who knew him in America the intellectual and personal background of this fascinating immigrant. And not just for us, of course. World events and intellectual developments over the past two decades have heightened interest in Schumpeter not only among economists, but also among our social scientists and political philosophers. Indeed many people of all ages and all walks of life …
The Tail Behavior Of Maximum Likelihood Estimates Of Cointegrating Coefficients In Error Correction Models, Peter C.B. Phillips
The Tail Behavior Of Maximum Likelihood Estimates Of Cointegrating Coefficients In Error Correction Models, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper derives exact finite sample distributions of maximum likelihood estimators of the cointegrating coefficients in error correction models. The distributions are derived for the leading case where the variables in the system are independent random walks. But important aspects of the theory, in particular the tail behavior of the distributions, continue to apply when the system is cointegrated. The reduced rank regression estimator is shown to have a distribution with Cauchy-like tails and no finite moments of integer order. The maximum likelihood estimator of the coefficients in the triangular system representation has matrix t -distribution tails with finite integer …
Classification Of Two-Person Ordinal Bimatrix Games, Imre Bárány, Jon Lee, Martin Shubik
Classification Of Two-Person Ordinal Bimatrix Games, Imre Bárány, Jon Lee, Martin Shubik
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The set of possible outcomes of a strongly ordinal bimatrix game is studied by imbedding each pair of possible payoffs as a point on the standard two-dimensional integral lattice. In particular, we count the number of different Pareto optimal sets of each cardinality; we establish asymptotic bounds for the number of different convex hulls of the point sets, for the average shape of the set of points dominated by the Pareto optimal set, and for the average shape of the convex hull of the point set. We also indicate the effect of individual rationality considerations on our results. As most …
The Long-Run Australian Consumption Function Reexamined: An Empirical Exercise In Bayesian Influence, Peter C.B. Phillips
The Long-Run Australian Consumption Function Reexamined: An Empirical Exercise In Bayesian Influence, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper reports an empirical application of new Baynesian methodology to Australian data on consumption, income, liquid assets and inflation. The methods involve the use of objective model based reference priors and objective posterior odds test criteria. The paper provides an overview of this methodology, which is based on recent work by the author (1991) and joint work with Werner Ploberger (1991) and Eric Zivot (1991). The empirical application involves tests of nonstationarity and cointegration in the data and various long-run model specifications are studied in detail. Bayesian empirical results are presented alongside well-known classical tests and are shown to …
Vector Autoregression And Causality: A Theoretical Overview And Simulation Study, Hiro Y. Toda, Peter C.B. Phillips
Vector Autoregression And Causality: A Theoretical Overview And Simulation Study, Hiro Y. Toda, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper provides a theoretical overview of Wald tests for Granger causality in levels vector autoregressions (VAR’s) and Johansen-type error correction models (ECM’s). for VAR models the results for inference are not encouraging. The limit theory typically involves nonstandard distributions and nuisance parameters, and there is no sound statistical basis for testing causality in such a framework. Granger causality tests in ECM’s also suffer from nuisance parameter dependencies asymptotically and nonstandard limit theory. But, in spite of these difficulties Johansen-type ECM’s do offer a sound basis for empirical testing of the rank of the cointegration space and the rank of …
A Bayesian Analysis Of Trend Determination In Economic Time Series, Eric Zivot, Peter C.B. Phillips
A Bayesian Analysis Of Trend Determination In Economic Time Series, Eric Zivot, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
In this paper we provide a comprehensive Bayesian posterior analysis of trend determination in general autoregressive models. Multiple lag autoregressive models with fitted drifts and time trends as well as models that allow for certain types of structural change in the deterministic components are considered. We utilize a modified information matrix-based prior that accommodates stochastic nonstationarity, takes into account the interactions between long-run and short-run dynamics and controls the degree of stochastic nonstationarity permitted. We derive analytic posterior densities for all of the trend determining parameters via the Laplace approximation to multivariate integrals. We also address the sampling properties of …
A Reexamination Of The Consumption Function Using Frequency Domain Regressors, Dean Corbae, Sam Ouliaris, Peter C.B. Phillips
A Reexamination Of The Consumption Function Using Frequency Domain Regressors, Dean Corbae, Sam Ouliaris, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper reexamines the permanent income hypothesis (PIH) in the frequency domain. Using a simple model, we demonstrate that the PIH implies the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of zero frequency income is unity. The PIH also implies that the MPC out of transitory (or high frequency) income is smaller than the long-run MPC. The paper employs a systems spectral regression procedure to test the PIH that accommodates stochastic trends in the consumption and income series as well as the joint dependence in these series. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that single equation techniques can produce inefficient tests of the …
Commentary On Irving Fisher, James Tobin
Commentary On Irving Fisher, James Tobin
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Schumpeter regarded “The Nature of Capital and Income” as one of the three of Fisher’s contributions to general theory generally recognized, at the time Schumpeter was writing, as “of first-class importance and originality.” The other two were Fisher’s “Mathematical Investigations” (1982) and his statistical method for measuring the marginal utility of income (1972). Nature is the bridge, both in sequence and in logic, between the other two great works, the timeless general equilibrium theory of the 1892 dissertation and the extension of that theory to intertemporal choices in production and consumption in the theory of interest.
Price Flexibility And Output Stability: An Old Keynesian View, James Tobin
Price Flexibility And Output Stability: An Old Keynesian View, James Tobin
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The central macroeconomic issue is the same as ever. How reliable are automatic market adjustments in maintaining full employment equilibrium in the face of aggregate demand shocks? Many modern theorists assume that nominal prices, including wages, jump instantaneously to keep supply and demand equal in all markets. No excess supply, no involuntary unemployment, can ever arise. However, since actual price adjustments take real time, greater flexibility can be destabilizing. “Real balance” effects are overrated, and the demand effects of nominal price changes are perverse. Activist macro policies are necessary, as Keynes argued, even though nominal prices are far from rigid.
On The Internationalization Of Portfolios, William C. Brainard, James Tobin
On The Internationalization Of Portfolios, William C. Brainard, James Tobin
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Portfolio theory has been an important component of open economy macroeconomic models. In those models, it is essential to distinguish among several categories of assets, both foreign and domestic, and to specify the demands and supplies. This framework has become increasingly relevant. Movements of capital across regional and national boundaries, and across currencies, have exploded in volume, thanks to the dismantling of currency and exchange controls and other financial regulations and to revolutionary economies in technologies of communication and transactions. The globalization of financial markets was stimulated by the floating exchange rate regime established in 1973.
International Currency Regimes, Capital Mobility, And Macroeconomic Policy, James Tobin
International Currency Regimes, Capital Mobility, And Macroeconomic Policy, James Tobin
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The structure of the international monetary system is once again a topic of great interest and controversy — among economists, business managers, financiers, and government leaders. Many members of all these groups are acutely dissatisfied with the floating exchange rate regime that succeeded the Bretton Woods system two decades ago. Within the European Community, the Exchange Rate Mechanism has re-established a regime of “adjustable pets.” After 1992 financial markets and institutions will cover the entire Community. The further step of issuing a common European currency is under serious consideration, and beyond that the more drastic step of replacing national currencies …
Unit Roots, Peter C.B. Phillips
Unit Roots, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Nonstationarity is certainly one of the most dominant and enduring characteristics of macroeconomic and financial time series. It therefore seems appropriate that this feature of the data be seriously addressed both in econometric methodology and in empirical practice. However, until recently this has not been the case. Before 1980, it was standard empirical practice in econometrics to treat observed trends as simple deterministic functions of time. Nelson-Plosser (1982) challenged this practice and showed that observed trends are better modeled if one allows for stochastic trends. Since their work there has been a continuing reappraisal of trend behavior in economic methods …
Unidentified Components In Reduced Rank Regression Estimation Of Ecm's, Peter C.B. Phillips
Unidentified Components In Reduced Rank Regression Estimation Of Ecm's, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Reduced rank regression procedures in error correction models (ECM’s) permit consistent estimation of the cointegration space but do not provide consistent estimates of individual structural relations when the dimension of the cointegration space is greater than one. Indeed, individual structural cointegrating equations are unidentified without additional a priori restrictions, just as in the conventional simultaneous equations framework. The effect of this lack of identification is explored by considering the distributions and limit distributions of reduced rank regression estimates of unidentified components of the cointegrating matrix in a typical VAR formulation of the ECM. Some recommendations are made for empirical practice.
An Implementation Of The Generalized Basis Reduction Algorithm For Integer Programming, William Cook, Thomas Rutherford, Herbert E. Scarf, David F. Shallcross
An Implementation Of The Generalized Basis Reduction Algorithm For Integer Programming, William Cook, Thomas Rutherford, Herbert E. Scarf, David F. Shallcross
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
In recent years many advances have been made in solution techniques for specially structured 0–1 integer programming problems. In contrast, very little progress has been made on solving general (mixed integer) problems. This, of course, is not true when viewed from the theoretical side: Lenstra (1981) made a major breakthrough, obtaining a polynomial-time algorithm when the number of integer variables is fixed. We discuss a practical implementation of a Lenstra-like algorithm, based on the generalized basis reduction method of Lovasz and Scarf (1988). This method allows us to avoid the ellipsoidal approximations required in Lenstra’s algorithm. We report on the …
Transformations Of The Commodity Space, Behavioral Heterogeneity And The Aggregation Problem, Jean-Michel Grandmont
Transformations Of The Commodity Space, Behavioral Heterogeneity And The Aggregation Problem, Jean-Michel Grandmont
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The aggregation problem in demand analysis and exchange equilibrium is studied by putting restrictions on the shape of the distribution of the agents’ characteristics. This is done by exploiting the finite dimensional linear structure induced on demand functions by affine transformations of the commodity space (or household equivalence scales). Increasing the degree of behavioral heterogeneity in the household sector or more specifically, making the conditional distributions in each equivalence class of demand functions fiat enough, has an important regularizing influence on aggregate budget shares: market demand has a negative dominant diagonal Jacobian matrix, aggregate excess demand has the gross substitutability …
Dynamic Structural Models: Problems And Prospects. Mixed Continuous Discrete Controls And Market Interactions, Ariel Pakes
Dynamic Structural Models: Problems And Prospects. Mixed Continuous Discrete Controls And Market Interactions, Ariel Pakes
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper reviews dynamic structural econometric models with both continuous and discrete controls, and those with market interactions. Its goal is to highlight techniques which enable researchers to obtain estimates of the parameters of models with these characteristics, and then use the estimates in subsequent descriptive and policy analysis. In an attempt to increase the accessibility of structural modeling, emphasis has been laid on estimation techniques which, though consistent with the underlying structural model, are computationally simple. The extent to which this is possible depends on the characteristics of the applied problem of interest, so the paper ends up covering …
The Ecology Of Markets, William D. Nordhaus
The Ecology Of Markets, William D. Nordhaus
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The notion that “everything is connected to everything else” runs through all of modern economics. Economies are connected in the production sphere through the inputs and outputs that circulate through the world; they are connected through the exchange of goods and services; and they are connected by flows of funds through which some people or nations finance the economic activity of others. It is generally believed that the great macroeconomic crises of this century — the periodic banking panics, the Great Depression of the 1930’s, the debt crisis of the 1980’s, the breakdown in socialist economies of today — occurred …
How Fast Do Old Men Slow Down?, Ray C. Fair
How Fast Do Old Men Slow Down?, Ray C. Fair
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This study uses data on men’s track and field and road racing records by age to estimate the rate at which men slow down with age. For most of the running events (400 meters through the half marathon), the slowdown rate per year is estimated to be .80 percent between ages 35 and 51. At age 51 the rate begins to increase. It is 1.04 percent at age 60, 1.46 percent at age 75, and 2.01 percent at age 95. The slowdown rate is smaller for 100 meters. For the events longer than the half marathon, the rate is smaller …
Comment On ‘To Criticize The Critics’, By Peter C.B. Phillips, Christopher A. Sims
Comment On ‘To Criticize The Critics’, By Peter C.B. Phillips, Christopher A. Sims
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
In his paper “To Criticize the Critics” (1991), Peter Phillips discusses Bayesian methodology for time series models. The main point that Uhlig and I set out to make, however, was that careful consideration of the implications of the likelihood principle suggests that much of the recent work under the “unit root” label in the econometrics literature is being incorrectly interpreted in practice. We pointed out that time series models with possible unit roots are one of the few domains within which the implications of a likelihood principle approach to inference are difference, even in the large samples, from those of …
Bayesian Routes And Unit Roots: De Rebus Prioribus Semper Est Disputandum, Peter C.B. Phillips
Bayesian Routes And Unit Roots: De Rebus Prioribus Semper Est Disputandum, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper provides detailed responses to the following 8 discussants of my paper “To Criticize the Critics: An Objective Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Trends”: Gary Koop and Mark Steel; Edward Leamer; In-Moo Kim and G. S. Maddala Dale J. Poirier; Peter C. Schotman and Herman K. van Dijk; James H. Stock; David Dejong and Charles H. Whiteman; and Christopher Sims. This reply puts new emphasis on the call made in the earlier paper for objective Bayesian analysis in time series; it underlines the need for a new approach, especially with regard to posterior odds testing; and it draws attention to …
Stabilizing The Soviet Economy, William D. Nordhaus
Stabilizing The Soviet Economy, William D. Nordhaus
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The proposals in our policy memorandum on economic stabilization — a restrictive monetary policy and a fiscal policy that eliminates the government deficit — are shaped by our view that the Soviet Union today faces a mounting economic crisis. As we emphasized in our discussion in the policy memorandum, problems include issues of inefficient economic structures, distorted prices, large macroeconomic imbalances, divided government, and lack of popular support for steps to stabilize and restructure the economy.
Repeated Games: Cooperation And Rationality, David G. Pearce
Repeated Games: Cooperation And Rationality, David G. Pearce
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The paper is a survey written for the Sixth World congress of the Econometric Society. It is devoted largely to a discussion of the progress made in the last decade in understanding the structure of self-enforcing agreements in discounted supergames of complete information. Perfect and imperfect monitoring models are considered in turn, with attention given to the case of substantial impatience as well as to the various “folk theorems.” The emphasis is on the features of constrained-optimal perfect equilibria, causes of inefficiency, and some relationships among different strands of the literature. The remainder of the paper is a critical and …
Vector Autoregression And Causality, Hiro Y. Toda, Peter C.B. Phillips
Vector Autoregression And Causality, Hiro Y. Toda, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper develops a complete limit theory for Wald tests of Granger causality in levels vector autoregression (VAR’s) and Johansen-type error correction models (ECM’s) allowing for the presence of stochastic trends and cointegration. Earlier work by Sims, Stock and Watson (1990) on trivariate VAR systems is extended to the general case, thereby formally characterizing the circumstances when these Wald tests are asymptotically valid as chi-square criteria. Our results for inference from unrestricted levels VAR are not encouraging.
The Spurious Effect Of Unit Roots On Exogeneity Tests In Vector Autoregressions: An Analytical Study, Hiro Y. Toda, Peter C.B. Phillips
The Spurious Effect Of Unit Roots On Exogeneity Tests In Vector Autoregressions: An Analytical Study, Hiro Y. Toda, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper analyzes whether inclusion of a statistically independent random walk in a vector autoregression can result in spurious inference. The problem was raised originally by Ohanian (1988). In a Monte Carlo simulation based on the VAR’s estimated by Sims (1980b, 1982), Ohanian found that block exogeneity of the genuine variables with respect to an artificially generated random walk variable was rejected too often. In the present paper we attempt a full analytical study of this problem. It can be shown that if the genuine variables are nonstationary, the Wald statistic for testing the block exogeneity hypothesis does not have …
A Bound Of The Proportion Of Pure Strategy Equilibria In Generic Games, Faruk Gul, David G. Pearce, Ennio Stacchetti
A Bound Of The Proportion Of Pure Strategy Equilibria In Generic Games, Faruk Gul, David G. Pearce, Ennio Stacchetti
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
In a generic finite normal form game with 2(α) + 1 Nash equilibria, at least alpha of the equilibria are nondegenerate mixed strategy equilibria (that is, they involve randomization by some players).
An ‘Average’ Lyapunov Convexity Theorem And Some Core Equivalence Results, Lin Zhou
An ‘Average’ Lyapunov Convexity Theorem And Some Core Equivalence Results, Lin Zhou
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
I prove an “average” version of the Lyapunov convexity theorem and apply it to establish some core equivalence results for an atomless economy.
Testing The Null Hypothesis Of Stationarity Against The Alternative Of A Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have A Unit Root?, Denis Kwiatkowski, Peter C.B. Phillips, Peter Schmidt
Testing The Null Hypothesis Of Stationarity Against The Alternative Of A Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have A Unit Root?, Denis Kwiatkowski, Peter C.B. Phillips, Peter Schmidt
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The standard conclusion that is drawn from this empirical evidence is that many or most aggregate economic time series contain a unit root. However, it is important to note that in this empirical work the unit root is set up as the null hypothesis testing is carried out ensures that the null hypothesis is accepted unless there is strong evidence against it. Therefore, an alternative explanation for the common failure to reject a unit root is simply that most economic time series are not very informative about whether or not there is a unit root; or, equivalently, that standard unit …
Time Series Modelling With A Bayesian Frame Of Reference: I. Concepts And Illustrations, Peter C.B. Phillips, Werner Ploberger
Time Series Modelling With A Bayesian Frame Of Reference: I. Concepts And Illustrations, Peter C.B. Phillips, Werner Ploberger
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper offers a general approach to time series modeling that attempts to reconcile classical and methods. The central idea put forward to achieve reconciliation is that the Bayesian approach relies implicitly a frame of reference for the data generating mechanism that is quite different from the one that is employed in the classical approach. Differences in inferences from the two approaches are therefore to be expected unless the altered frame reference is taken into account. We show that the new frame of reference in Bayesian inference is a consequence of a change of measure that arises naturally in the …
Exactly Unbiased Estimation Of First Order Autoregressive/Unit Root Models, Donald W.K. Andrews
Exactly Unbiased Estimation Of First Order Autoregressive/Unit Root Models, Donald W.K. Andrews
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper is concerned with the estimation of first-order autoregressive/unit root models with independent identically distributed normal errors. The models considered include those without an intercept, those with an intercept, and those with an intercept and time trend. The autoregressive (AR) parameter alpha is allowed to lie in the interval (-1,1], which includes the case of a unit root. Exactly median-unbiased estimators of the AR parameter alpha are proposed. Exact confidence intervals for this parameter are introduced. Corresponding exactly median-unbiased estimators and exact confidence intervals are also provided for the impulse response function and the cumulative impulse response. An unbiased …
-Person Game And Endogenous Coalition Formation, Lin Zhou
-Person Game And Endogenous Coalition Formation, Lin Zhou
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The two most fundamental questions in cooperative game theory are: When a game is played, what coalitions will be formed and what payoff vectors will be chosen? No previous solution concepts or theories in the literature provide satisfactory answers to both questions; answers are especially lacking for the first one. In this paper we introduce the refined bargaining set, which is the first solution concept in cooperative game theory that simultaneously provides answers to both of the fundamental questions.