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Adventures At The Zero Lower Bound: A Bayesian Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive Analysis Of Monetary Policy Uncertainty Shocks, Rachel M. Doehr
Adventures At The Zero Lower Bound: A Bayesian Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive Analysis Of Monetary Policy Uncertainty Shocks, Rachel M. Doehr
CMC Senior Theses
Using survey-based measures of future interest rate expectations from the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we examine the relationship between monetary policy uncertainty, captured as the dispersion of interest rate forecasts, and fluctuations in real economic activity and core inflation. We use a flexible time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model to clearly isolate the dynamic effects of shocks to monetary policy uncertainty. To further study possible a possible nonlinear relationship between monetary policy uncertainty and the macroeconomic aggregates, we extract the impulse-response functions (IRF’s) estimated at each quarter in the time series, and use a …
Pricing Bond Yields In The European Bond Market, David Cook
Pricing Bond Yields In The European Bond Market, David Cook
CMC Senior Theses
This paper analyzes macroeconomic factors and their effect on 2-year government bonds of 11 countries in the European Monetary Union. I specifically looked at how a simultaneous budget and trade surplus effect a country's bond yield spread relative to Germany's bond yield. My model showed that double surplus countries have a larger yield spread than countries that do not have a double surplus.