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Hong Kong's Inflation Under The U.S. Dollar Peg : The Balassa-Samuelson Effect Or The Dutch Disease?, Hiroyuki Imai
Hong Kong's Inflation Under The U.S. Dollar Peg : The Balassa-Samuelson Effect Or The Dutch Disease?, Hiroyuki Imai
CAPS Working Paper Series
Despite establishing the U.S. dollar peg in 1983, Hong Kong’s annual rate of inflation during the 1985-96 period was 4.3% higher than that of the U.S. The Dutch disease is found to be the main reason for Hong Kong’s high long-term rate of inflation. The Balassa-Samuelson effect contributed relatively little. From the 1980s, the relocation of Hong Kong manufacturing to southern China generated strong demand for Hong Kong’s tradable services to support the industrial activity in the mainland and subsequently raised the process of tradable services in Hong Kong. Growing wage costs and consumption demand, which accompanied the boom led …
Testing For A Nonlinear Relationship Among Fundamentals And Exchange Rates In The Erm, Yue Ma, Angelos Kanas
Testing For A Nonlinear Relationship Among Fundamentals And Exchange Rates In The Erm, Yue Ma, Angelos Kanas
CAPS Working Paper Series
We employ two nonparametric nonlinear testing methodologies, namely a nonparametric nonlinear cointegration approach and nonlinear Granger causality approach, to test for a nonlinear relationship between macroeconomic fundamentals and exchange rates for two country-pairs, namely the Netherlands-Germany and France-Germany. The result suggest that there is nonlinear cointegration among money, output and exchange rates for Netherlands-Germany, which can be interpreted as evidence of a long-run nonlinear relationship. For France-Germany, we fail to find evidence of nonlinear cointegration, but we find nonlinear Granger causality from French money to the FFr/DM exchange rate. These findings may be interpreted as evidence of a dynamic nonlinear …