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Full-Text Articles in Economics
Understanding Recent Trends In House Prices And Home Ownership, Robert J. Shiller
Understanding Recent Trends In House Prices And Home Ownership, Robert J. Shiller
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper looks at a broad array of evidence concerning the recent boom in home prices, and considers what this means for future home prices and the economy. It does not appear possible to explain the boom in terms of fundamentals such as rents or construction costs. A psychological theory, that represents the boom as taking place because of a feedback mechanism or social epidemic that encourages a view of housing as an important investment opportunity, fits the evidence better. Three case studies of past booms are considered for comparison: the US housing boom of 1950, the US farmland boom …
Historic Turning Points In Real Estate, Robert J. Shiller
Historic Turning Points In Real Estate, Robert J. Shiller
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper looks for markers of ends of real estate booms or busts. The changes in market psychology and related indicators that occurred at real estate market turning points in the United States since the 1980s are compared with changes at turning points in the more distant past. In all these episodes changes in an atmosphere of optimism about the future course of home prices, changes in public interpretation of the boom, as well as evidence of supply response to the high prices of a boom, are noted.