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Aggregate Effects In Local Labor Markets Of Supply And Demand Shocks, Timothy J. Bartik
Aggregate Effects In Local Labor Markets Of Supply And Demand Shocks, Timothy J. Bartik
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Anti-poverty policy in the U.S. has emphasized labor supply policies, such as welfare reform or job training. Anti-poverty policy in the U.S. has not emphasized policies to increase labor demand for the poor, such as public employment or subsidizing private employers to hire the poor. What are the aggregate effects of such policies on wages and unemployment of different groups? This paper estimates and simulates a model with several types of labor, using data from the Current Population Survey on state labor markets. The simulations suggest that forcing more disadvantaged persons into the labor market can displace many other persons …
Examining The Effect Of Industry Trends And Structure On Welfare Caseloads, Timothy J. Bartik, Randall W. Eberts
Examining The Effect Of Industry Trends And Structure On Welfare Caseloads, Timothy J. Bartik, Randall W. Eberts
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Previous studies of the macro-economic determinants of welfare caseloads have had difficulty in explaining changes in welfare caseloads during the last decade or so using the simple macroeconomic measure of unemployment. Because welfare recipients will typically get entry-level jobs, employment variables that are closely related to job vacancies, such as employment growth, are also important in determining welfare caseloads, as we show empirically in this study. Recognizing that welfare recipients face more substantial barriers to employment than those who typically have more education and skills, we constructed several macro-economic variables that reflect the education requirements of industries and the predominance …