Economics Commons^™

Essays On The Role Of Uncertainty In The Economy, Amalia Sarah Jerison

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

In this dissertation, I study how uncertainty interacts with firm dynamics to affect aggregate economic variables. The first chapter proposes a measure of uncertainty based on forecaster surveys and compares it with another measure developed by Jurado, Ludvigson and Ng (2015). This chapter first investigates whether fluctuations in survey composition make the survey uncertainty measure too dependent on the identity of participating forecasters. An extension of the Breusch and Pagan (1979) test due to Breitung, Roling and Salish (2016) rejects constancy of parameters in regressions of GDP growth on survey uncertainty as the subsets of the forecasters differ. However, the …