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Do Asymmetric Terms Of Trade Shocks Affect Private Savings In A Transition Economy?, Abdur Chowdhury
Do Asymmetric Terms Of Trade Shocks Affect Private Savings In A Transition Economy?, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
This paper examines whether terms of trade shocks have an asymmetric effect on private savings in transition economies. A simple three-period framework is developed to show that, in the presence of binding credit constraints in bad states of nature, savings rates can be sensitive to favorable movements in the permanent component of the terms of trade. This result contrasts with the prediction of the conventional consumption-smoothing model. Empirical analysis with a dynamic panel model further confirms that while favorable movements in the permanent component of the terms of trade have an asymmetric effect on private savings, the magnitude of the …
(Wp 2013-07) Terms Of Trade Shocks And Private Savings In The Developing Countries, Abdur Chowdhury
(Wp 2013-07) Terms Of Trade Shocks And Private Savings In The Developing Countries, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
Economic agents in the developing countries are subject to tight credit constraints, which are more pronounced during bad state of nature. Thus, adverse shocks to commodity prices in the world market can force them to reduce savings by a larger amount than they would otherwise have. Empirical analysis using a dynamic GMM model and data from 45 developing countries confirm that most of the determinants of savings identified in the literature also apply to the developing countries. The transitory component in the terms of trade have a larger positive impact than the permanent component. This reflects the lack of access …