Economics Commons^™

In Pursuit Of Consumption-Based Forecasting, Charles Chase, Kenneth B. Kahn

Marketing Faculty Publications

[Introduction] Today's most mature, most sophisticated, best-in-class forecasting is what we call consumption-based forecasting (CBF). In contrast, the least sophisticated companies typically do not forecast at all, but rather set financial targets based on management expectations. Companies beginning to use statistical forecasting techniques usually take a supply-centric orientation, relying on time series techniques applied to shipment and/or order history. The next stage of progression is to incorporate promotions data, economic data, and market data alongside supply-centric data so that regression and other advanced analytics can be used. Companies pursing CBF utilize even more advanced capabilities to capture, examine, and understand …

National Integration And Institution Building, Haiwen Zhou

Economics Faculty Publications

The mutual dependence between national integration and institution building is established in a formal model. It is shown that a decrease in transportation costs, but not necessarily an increase in population size, reduces the equilibrium number of states and the adoption of rule-based institutions. With endogenous transportation costs or endogenous population size, the unification process can feed on itself. The model is illustrated by the state of Qin's unification of China in 221 BC. During this process of national integration, transformations from relation-based governance to rule-based governance happened.

Abmscore: A Heuristic Algorithm For Forming Strategic Coalitions In Agent-Based Simulation, Andrew J. Collins, Gayane Grigoryan

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

Integrating human behavior into agent-based models has been challenging due to its diversity. An example is strategic coalition formation, which occurs when an individual decides to collaborate with others because it strategically benefits them, thereby increasing the expected utility of the situation. An algorithm called ABMSCORE was developed to help model strategic coalition formation in agent-based models. The ABMSCORE algorithm employs hedonic games from cooperative game theory and has been applied to various situations, including refugee egress and smallholder farming cooperatives. This paper discusses ABMSCORE, including its mechanism, requirements, limitations, and application. To demonstrate the potential of ABMSCORE, a new …

The Role Of Discrete Emotions In Job Satisfaction: A Meta-Analysis, Courtney E. Williams, Jane Shumski Thomas, Andrew A. Bennett, George C. Banks, Allison Toth, Alexandra M. Dunn, Andrew Mcbride, Janaki Gooti

Management Faculty Publications

[Summary] The relationship between emotions and job satisfaction is widely acknowledged via affective events theory (AET). Despite its widespread use, AET was not designed to address why specific emotions might differentially relate to job satisfaction. We utilize appraisal theory of emotion to refine AET and provide this nuanced theorizing. We meta‐analytically test our ideas with 235 samples across 99 883 individuals and 22 600 intra‐individual episodes. We test two approaches—specific emotion experiences (16 discrete emotions) versus general emotion experiences (positive or negative emotions)—and present empirical evidence of their similarities and differences with job satisfaction. Our findings suggest that specific emotions …

Interactive Effects Of Climate Change-Induced Range Shifts And Wind Energy Development On Future Economic Conditions Of The Atlantic Surfclam Fishery, Stephanie Stromp, Andrew M. Scheld, John M. Klinck, Daphne M. Munroe, Eric N. Powell, Roger Mann, Sarah Borsetti, Eileen E. Hofmann

CCPO Publications

Rising water temperatures along the northeastern U.S. continental shelf have resulted in an offshore range shift of the Atlantic surfclam Spisula solidissima to waters still occupied by ocean quahogs Arctica islandica. Fishers presently are prohibited from landing both Atlantic surfclams and ocean quahogs in the same catch, thus limiting fishing to locations where the target species can be sorted on deck. Wind energy development on and around the fishing grounds will further restrict the fishery. A spatially explicit model of the Atlantic surfclam fishery (Spatially Explicit Fishery Economics Simulator) has the ability to simulate the consequences of fishery displacement …

Part 2: The Pillars Of The Hampton Roads Economy Remain Strong, Dragas Center For Economic Analysis And Policy, Old Dominion University

State of the Region Reports: Hampton Roads

Hampton Roads is a region rich with assets – a talented and diverse labor force, a distinctive role in the national security of the nation, a deep-water port that continues to set records, and beaches and amenities that attract visitors from near and far. The region’s economic performance is closely aligned with these assets. Defense spending, the Port of Virginia, and the hospitality and tourism industry are often referred to as the “Three Pillars” of the Hampton Roads economy – pillars that have continued to perform well in the aftermath of the economic shock of 2020. In this chapter, we …

Front Matter: The State Of The Region, Hampton Roads 2023, Dragas Center For Economic Analysis And Policy, Old Dominion University

State of the Region Reports: Hampton Roads

Cover, Front Matter, Table of Contents, Sponsors, and other materials for the 2023 The State of the Region Report authored by the Center for Economic Analysis and Policy at Old Dominion University.

Part 6: Should Taxpayers Subsidize Private Facilities In Hampton Roads? Glitz Vs. Reality, Dragas Center For Economic Analysis And Policy, Old Dominion University

State of the Region Reports: Hampton Roads

Hampton Roads can learn from the experience of other cities and states. If there is a strong business case for a sports stadium, sports park, or entertainment venue, then investors should be able to tap into financial markets. In this chapter, we examine the arguments surrounding public investments in highly visible facilities. We pose questions that should be asked when considering such investments and explore the potential opportunity costs of these projects. We offer a cautionary tale that such projects are sold as transformative but often fail to generate the promised benefits, not only for taxpayers but also for the …

Part 3: The Fourth Pillar: Veterans In Hampton Roads, Dragas Center For Economic Analysis And Policy, Old Dominion University

State of the Region Reports: Hampton Roads

In 2021, more than 1 in 10 residents of Hampton Roads identified themselves as a veteran of military service. Among these veterans, almost 1 in 3 were military retirees. With thousands of active-duty service members separating from service in Hampton Roads every year, we ask what is the impact of these veterans on the regional economy. We find that working-age veterans in Hampton Roads are more likely to participate in the labor force than their non-veteran counterparts and that the presence of veterans brings billions of dollars into the region.

Part 4: Get On The Bus: Public Transportation In Hampton Roads, Dragas Center For Economic Analysis And Policy, Old Dominion University

State of the Region Reports: Hampton Roads

In many countries, public transportation is a cornerstone of urban life. In Hampton Roads, public transportation is in a moment of transition, sparked by technological change, pandemic disruptions, a growing emphasis on social equity, and a longer term loss of riders. In this chapter, we discuss who provides public transportation in Hampton Roads. We explore the economics of public transportation and ask what the future holds for public transportation in the region

Part 7: The Virginia Museum Of Contemporary Art: Challenges, Opportunities, And Economic Impact, Dragas Center For Economic Analysis And Policy, Old Dominion University

State of the Region Reports: Hampton Roads

Museums are a part of the cultural life of a region and a component of the regional economy. The Virginia Museum of Contemporary Art in Virginia Beach is one such museum. The Virginia Museum of Contemporary Art (Virginia MOCA for short) is a cultural jewel that continues to provide the region with remarkable artistic resources and programming. In this chapter, we explore how museums can contribute to economic activity and explore the economic impact of the Virginia Museum of Contemporary Art.

Part 5: Death And Dying In Hampton Roads, Dragas Center For Economic Analysis And Policy, Old Dominion University

State of the Region Reports: Hampton Roads

Death and taxes may be inevitable, but where we die is usually not a topic of public policy or discussion. Hospice care is the specialized treatment that provides support and comfort to patients who are terminally ill with a general life expectancy of six months or less. In this chapter, we take a close look at serious disease and hospice care in the United States and Virginia. We examine the demand for hospice care by Medicare beneficiaries as well as the changing nature of hospice care suppliers as now more than two-thirds of hospices nationwide operate as for-profit entities.

The State Of The Region: Hampton Roads 2023, Dragas Center For Economic Analysis And Policy, Old Dominion University, Vinod Agarwal, Aliou Ousmane Ba, Barbara Blake, Elizabeth Janik, Nikki Johnson, James V. Koch, Feng Lian, Terry Parker, Matt Voegel

State of the Region Reports: Hampton Roads

This is Old Dominion University’s 24th annual State of the Region Report. While it represents the work of many people connected in various ways to the university, the report does not constitute an official viewpoint of Old Dominion, its president, Brian Hemphill, Ph.D., the Board of Visitors, the Strome College of Business or the generous donors who support the activities of the Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy.

Over the past year, we have experienced rising interest rates, persistent inflation, and the continued impact of geopolitical shocks on our daily lives. We live, for better or worse, in interesting …

2023 State Of The Commonwealth Report, Vinod Agarwal, Aliou Ousmane Ba, Barbara Blake, James V. Koch, Ria Kolarao, Feng Lian, Anna Makhorkina, Melody Nguyen, Terry Parker, Mohamed Rahoui, Panagiotis Taoulas, Robert D. Mcnab

State of the Commonwealth Reports

This is Old Dominion University's ninth annual State of the Commonwealth Report. While it represents the work of many people connected in various ways to the University, the report does not constitute an official viewpoint of Old Dominion, its president, Brian Hemphill, Ph.D., the board of Visitors, the Strome College of Business or the generous donors who support the activities of the Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy.

Our work seeks to contribute to the conversation about how Virginia can foster growth across the Commonwealth without glossing over the challenges we face. Instead of retreating into partisan enclaves where …

Part 5: Virginia's Hotel Industry Grows, But Change Is Coming, Dragas Center For Economic Analysis And Policy, Old Dominion University

State of the Commonwealth Reports

This chapter assesses the performance of the hotel industry in the Commonwealth and discusses the challenges facing the hotel industry in 2024 and beyond. To understand the prospects for growth, we examine the recovery from the shock of 2020 and how different areas of the commonwealth fared with regard to hotel revenue and occupancy. We take stock of the competitive environment and how labor shortages continue to challenge hoteliers. We ask: what does the future hold for the hotel industry in Virginia?

Digital Platforms And Entrepreneurial Support: A Field Experiment In Online Mentoring, Saurabh A. Lall, Li-Wei Chen, Dyana P. Mason

Management Faculty Publications

The benefits of entrepreneurial mentorship are well documented, but there is limited research on how entrepreneurs connect with mentors, especially in digital settings. We partnered with an online platform that connects entrepreneurs to potential mentors to conduct a field experiment in online mentoring. Drawing on literature on entrepreneurial mentorship and Social Cognitive Theory, we compared the effects of three interventions on the likelihood of reaching out and making a connection with a mentor in a digital setting. We find that showing entrepreneurs a video of a successful mentor–mentee relationship increases the chances that they will reach out to a potential …

Do Lawyers Inhibit Economic Growth? New Evidence From The 50 U.S. States, James V. Koch, Richard J. Cebula

Economics Faculty Publications

Whether the activities of lawyers might hamper economic growth has been hotly contested over the past three decades. Contradictory conclusions have flowed from evidence that typically has focused on the impact of lawyers on the growth rates of countries. Disputes over definitions and samples that vary among countries have colored portions of these debates. We surmount many of these issues by adopting a 50-state panel covering the period 2005-2018 for the United States and by utilizing widely accepted variables regarding economic activity and who is considered a lawyer. Further, we utilize two distinct measures of the activity of lawyers and …

Using The Lsat As A Labor Market Thermometer For Lawyers, James V. Koch, Barbara Blake-Gonzalez

Economics Faculty Publications

We rely upon a 50-state, 20-year panel to find that the number of Law School Admissions Test (LSAT) takers is only loosely related to economic conditions—although slightly more for men than for women, who in 2020 accounted for 58% of all LSAT takers. The number of test takers rose more than 35% between 2014 and 2020. This wave accentuated an already existing downtrend in the median real income of lawyers, and thus provides support for the hypothesis that most states have more lawyers than they need.

What Type Of Central Banker Dampens The Political Business Cycle? The Case Of Africa, Christine Strong

Economics Faculty Publications

This article investigates the extent to which central bank independence can help to reduce political business cycles in Africa. Like previous studies, we find evidence of political cycles in our sample of 34 African countries for the period 1980–2018, but our findings show that politicians' ability to manipulate both fiscal and monetary policy depends on the degree of alliance between the fiscal authority and the monetary authority. Indeed, our analysis reveals that the political business cycle worsens when the central banker is an ally whereas a non‐ally central banker is associated with a decrease in the ability of the incumbent …

Unification And Division: A Theory Of Institutional Choices In Imperial China, Haiwen Zhou

Economics Faculty Publications

Ancient China experienced various rounds of division and unification. Unification was maintained through economic and political institutions such as low tax rates to reduce peasant rebellions and the division of authority among government officials to reduce usurpation of power. A ruler’s choice of institutions to maintain unification is studied in a theoretical model. Interactions among external threats, internal rebellions by peasants, and usurpation of power by government officials are established. A higher level of external threats induces the ruler to choose a higher level of autonomy for government officials and a higher tax rate. That is, equilibrium probability of internal …

Economic Freedom And One-Way Truck Rental Prices: An Empirical Note, Alexander Cardazzi, Robert A. Lawson

Economics Faculty Publications

This study examines the one-way truck rental prices for 378 cities. There are large price differentials in one-way rental prices between city pairs. The pull of people toward higher economic freedom locales and push away from lower economic freedom locales is found to be an important determinant of the city-pair price differentials.

The Choice Of Technology In Economic Development, Lei Wen, Haiwen Zhou

Economics Faculty Publications

The impact of capital accumulation on job creation is an important and interesting issue in economic development. This model provides a general-equilibrium framework for studying technology choice with unemployment in a developing economy based on micro-foundations. Unemployment in the urban sector results from the existence of efficiency wages. Manufacturing firms engage in oligopolistic competition and choose technologies to maximise profits. A more advanced technology uses more capital and less labour. In the steady state, an increase in the amount of capital induces firms to choose more advanced technologies and the wage rate increases. While a higher capital stock always induces …

Assessment Of Spatio-Temporal Variations In Pm2.5 And Associated Long-Range Air Mass Transport And Mortality In South Asia, Md Sariful Islam, Shimul Roy, Tanmoy Roy Tusher, Mizanur Rahman, Ryley C. Harris

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

Fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) is associated with adverse impacts on ambient air quality and human mortality; the situation is especially dire in developing countries experiencing rapid industrialization and urban development. This study assessed the spatio-temporal variations of PM_2.5 and its health impacts in the South Asian region. Both satellite and station-based data were used to monitor the variations in PM_2.5 over time. Additionally, mortality data associated with ambient particulate matter were used to depict the overall impacts of air pollution in this region. We applied the Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope trend analysis tool to investigate the …

Part 1: Growth Returns, Now Make It Last, Dragas Center For Economic Analysis And Policy, Old Dominion University

State of the Region Reports: Hampton Roads

There is some good news to report. Hampton Roads gained population but population growth continues to slow. A record number of residents were at work or looking for work in 2023. A record number of residents of the region reported they were employed in 2023. The number of jobs continued to recovery from the depths of the 2020 economic shock, however, a full recovery may not occur until 2024. Economic growth sharply rebounded from the declines of 2020, and we expect growth to continue in 2023. The region’s economic performance, however, continues to lag many of its peers.

Part 1: Virginia's Economy Grows, But Questions Linger About The Future, Dragas Center For Economic Analysis And Policy, Old Dominion University

State of the Commonwealth Reports

There is good news to report about the economy of the Commonwealth. Economic activity increased in 2022 and 2023. A record number of Virginians were at work or looking for work. Labor force participation increased above pre-pandemic levels. However, this news is tempered by the fact that Virginia grew slower than the nation and Virginians continue to migrate out of the Commonwealth. The Virginia economy should grow in 2024, but work remains to be done to match the economic performance of our peers.

Part 2: A Recovery In Progress: Virginia's Go Virginia Regions, Dragas Center For Economic Analysis And Policy, Old Dominion University

State of the Commonwealth Reports

For some areas of Virginia, the recovery from the economic shock associated with the COVID-19 pandemic has been robust, with evidence emerging of a new expansion in economic activity in 2023. For other areas of the Commonwealth, the recovery would be best characterized as anemic. As we conclude 2023 and look forward to 2024, the economic fate of the Commonwealth looks increasingly bifurcated, with economic activity and population concentrated in a handful of regions. Now, with evidence of a “soft landing” from the turbulence of 2022 increasingly evident, the open question remains: can we spur economic growth across the state?

Part 3: Virginia Is For Veterans, Dragas Center For Economic Analysis And Policy, Old Dominion University

State of the Commonwealth Reports

Approximately 1 in 10 Virginian adults ages 18 years and older was a veteran of military service in 2021. The Commonwealth only ranked behind Alaska in the proportion of adults who identified as a veteran of military service in 2021. Virginia ranked first for the share of veterans in the adult population among states with populations greater than 1 million in 2021. Military veterans in Virginia, on average, are more educated than their civilian counterparts and have higher household incomes. The presence of military veterans and retirees not only provides talents to employers, but also generates billions of dollars of …

Part 4: Death And Dying In Virginia, Dragas Center For Economic Analysis And Policy, Old Dominion University

State of the Commonwealth Reports

Death and taxes may be inevitable, but where we die is usually not a topic of public policy or discussion. Hospice care is the specialized treatment that provides support and comfort to patients who are terminally ill with a general life expectancy of six months or less. In this chapter, we take a close look at serious disease and hospice care in the United States and Virginia. We examine the demand for hospice care by Medicare beneficiaries as well as the changing nature of hospice care suppliers as now more than two-thirds of hospices nationwide operate as for-profit entities. We …

Ownership Of Esg Characteristics, Mark E. Bateman, Lisa R. Goldberg

School of Public Service Faculty Publications

A portfolio can be viewed as the collection of the businesses, policies and practices of constituent companies. We measure investors' Ownership of this collection. Ownership metrics aggregate an assortment of company specific Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) characteristics to the portfolio level, and they can inform investment and engagement decisions. Relative to a benchmark, investor Ownership is active and satisfies a zero-sum property, which underscores the distinction between Ownership and impact. Ownership of ESG characteristics may be interpreted as ascribing ethical responsibility, but that conclusion and any decisions that result from it belong to the investor.

Transitional Entrepreneurship: Unleashing Entrepreneurial Potential Across Numerous Challenging Contexts, Golshan Javadian, Anil Nair, David Ahlstrom, Kaveh Moghaddam, Li-Wei Chen, Younggeun Lee

Management Faculty Publications

[First paragraph] We are pleased to publish the special issue of the New England Journal of Entrepreneurship on transitional entrepreneurship. Transitional entrepreneurship refers to the practices of entrepreneurs from communities facing adversity who navigate substantial life transitions as they launch and manage new ventures in response to various changes and challenges in their environment. Entrepreneurship is not only a critical driver of economic growth and social development (Ahlstrom et al., 2019; McCloskey, 2010) but can also represent a life-changing transition for most, if not all, of the entrepreneurs themselves. Transitional entrepreneurship entails strategic pivots or transformations that enable entrepreneurs to …