Economics Commons^™

Enhanced Prediction Of Stock Markets Using A Novel Deep Learning Model Plstm-Tal In Urbanized Smart Cities, Saima Latif, Nadeem Javaid, Faheem Aslam, Abdulaziz Aldegheishem, Nabil Alrajeh, Safdar Hussain Bouk

School of Cybersecurity Faculty Publications

Accurate predictions of stock markets are important for investors and other stakeholders of the equity markets to formulate profitable investment strategies. The improved accuracy of a prediction model even with a slight margin can translate into considerable monetary returns. However, the stock markets' prediction is regarded as an intricate research problem for the noise, complexity and volatility of the stocks' data. In recent years, the deep learning models have been successful in providing robust forecasts for sequential data. We propose a novel deep learning-based hybrid classification model by combining peephole LSTM with temporal attention layer (TAL) to accurately predict the …

Global Energy Consumption: An Analysis Of Variables That Shape Per Capita Usage, Or How Pump Price, Urbanization, And Fossil Fuels Imports Impact Fossil Fuels Consumption Per Capita Across Oecd Countries, Mila Demchyk Savage

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

Among reasons explaining the importance of studying fossil fuel consumption are: crude oil is a subject of the international commodities market, thus, any fluctuation related to its' availability or price would impact the rest of the World; natural resources like oil, gas, and coal are limited; the extensive use of fossil fuels harms our surroundings, creating many environmental concerns; every human (on average) has been using more energy since 1971 and the trend is expected to continue. The upward trend is not consistent among individual countries. Therefore, the core question of my research is, `Why do some countries consume less …

Complex Global Value Chains And Economic Interdependence: A New Look At The Opportunity Costs Argument, Melle Scholten

Graduate Research Conference (GSIS)

The classical economic interdependence argument states that trade and investment between countries make conflict less likely, because they increase the opportunity costs of war. War means that trade and investment will dry up, to the detriment of society as a whole. The increased opportunity costs of war (vis-`a-vis peace) means war will be less likely to occur between interdependent states. Certain strands of realism have challenged this assertion. They argue that expectations that trade will decline in future can be a strong incentive for initiating conflict. Giving increasing political and economic tensions between the world’s superpowers – the USA and …

What Type Of Central Banker Dampens The Political Business Cycle? The Case Of Africa, Christine Strong

Economics Faculty Publications

This article investigates the extent to which central bank independence can help to reduce political business cycles in Africa. Like previous studies, we find evidence of political cycles in our sample of 34 African countries for the period 1980–2018, but our findings show that politicians' ability to manipulate both fiscal and monetary policy depends on the degree of alliance between the fiscal authority and the monetary authority. Indeed, our analysis reveals that the political business cycle worsens when the central banker is an ally whereas a non‐ally central banker is associated with a decrease in the ability of the incumbent …

Remittance: A New Instrument For Change -- Understanding The Impact Of Remittances On Home Countries Development, Alex M. Hamed

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation constructs a framework to investigate the impact of remittances on the recipient countries in the context of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and the European Union (EU). The framework will explore the effects of labor migration induced by bilateral labor agreements (BLAs). Such labor agreements are guided by the desire of autocratic governments to utilize their citizens to finance social contracts to sustain the authoritarian systems. The labor movements are further enhanced by accumulating social capital and remittances. The research also highlights the impact of remittances on the home country's institutional quality. It also highlights the …

The Political Economy Of Global Private Currencies, Girish Sreevatsan Nandakumar

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation examines regulatory responses to global private currencies (GPCs). Through detailed analyses of the history and evolution of private digital currencies, and through case studies of the United States, the European Union, and China, this dissertation identifies five factors that condition regulatory responses: (1) compliance with anti-money laundering (AML) laws, (2) compliance with systems built for fiat currencies, (3) degree of transparency in operations, (4) culture of sovereignty within the nation, and (5) great power competition with other nations. Throughout the dissertation, various political, economic, social, technological, legal, and environmental (PESTLE) characteristics of GPCs are highlighted. This dissertation also …

An Overlapping-Generations Model Of Firm Heterogeneity In Economic Development, Yu Chen, Haiwen Zhou

Economics Faculty Publications

We study firm heterogeneity in economic development in an overlapping-generations general equilibrium model in which manufacturing firms engage in oligopolistic competition. Individuals differ in their productivities in the manufacturing sector and choose to become entrepreneurs or workers. The model is surprisingly tractable. In the steady state, an increase in the entry barrier in the manufacturing sector or an increase in the percentage of income spent on the agricultural good decreases the wage rate, but the level of output in the manufacturing sector does not necessarily decrease. An increase in the degree of patience of an individual increases the steady state …

How Do The Trans-Pacific Economies Affect The Usa? An Industrial Sector Approach, Takeshi Yagihashi, David D. Selover

Economics Faculty Publications

This paper studies how the Trans-Pacific region affects the US economy in terms of business cycle transmission. We use a large data set consisting of disaggregated sectoral industrial production indexes from selected countries in the region and employ a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) approach to analyze the transmission of shocks in different industries. We find that a positive output shock in the entire Trans-Pacific region has positive effects on the majority of US manufacturing sectors. We also find that sectoral shocks in five sectors of the Trans-Pacific region have a large impact on the overall US economy. Three of the …

Maritime Economics In A Post-Expansion Panama Canal Era, Grace W. Y. Wang, Wayne Talley, Mary R. Brooks

Economics Faculty Publications

(First paragraph) The 2016 opening of an expanded Panama Canal will allow for Post-Panamax containerships up to 12 500 twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) in size to transit the Panama Canal. In response, some US East Coast container ports are having their channels and berths dredged deeper—to allow Post-Panamax containerships from Asia (transiting the expanded canal) to call at their ports. What are the implications for the US West Coast ports? Will there be a cargo shift from West Coast to East Coast ports? These topics as well as the impacts of other changes in global shipping lanes (e.g., the Suez …

Two-Year And Four-Year Tertiary Education: Measuring Human Capital Effects On Economic Growth In Developing And Developed Countries With The Uzawa-Lucas Model, Darryl M. Tyndorf

Educational Foundations & Leadership Theses & Dissertations

Tertiary education is believed to be a driver of economic development through the relationship between human capital development and economic output. Global massification efforts of tertiary education have led to increased global demand. Countries with limited tertiary education systems, like developing countries, have employed policies to increase domestic tertiary education opportunities instead of sending students abroad. Many tertiary education policies have focused on importing tertiary education from countries with established tertiary education systems. Import efforts first emphasized university models, but limited success prompted the import of more flexible short-cycle education modeled after the United States’ community college system. Limited empirical …

Unemployment And Economic Integration For Developing Countries, Haiwen Zhou

Economics Faculty Publications

While financial or trade integration between countries may increase the size of the market and aid the adoption of more advanced technologies, will it also increase the level of urban unemployment for a developing country? In this model, there is unemployment in the urban sector. Manufacturing firms engage in oligopolistic competition and choose increasing returns technologies to maximize profits. Financial firms provide capital to manufacturing firms and they also engage in oligopolistic competition. We show that an increase in the wage rate in the manufacturing sector changes neither the level of technology nor the level of employment in the manufacturing …

Transnational Organized Crime And The Illegal Wildlife Trade Global Ties And Global Crime, Zachariah Edward Long

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

World biodiversity is faced with many different threats in today's globalized world. One such threat is the emergence of transnational organized crime in the illegal wildlife trade. But why would transnational organized crime which is traditionally associated with such crimes like illegal drugs, weapons, and human trafficking be interested in the illegal wildlife trade? This thesis seeks to explore why transnational organized crime as a rational business actor would it be interested in participating in the illegal wildlife trade. To explore this relationship, this thesis will look at several different variables. First the economic conditions oflocals living with wildlife and …

Great Powers, The Persian Gulf, And Global Oil: A Comparative Analysis, Katerina Oskarsson

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

Using original data, this study explores the changing capabilities of the United States, China, and Russia in the conflict-ridden Persian Gulf since 1980. It reveals what such shifts mean for American hegemony, the international distribution of capabilities in the region, relations among the great powers, and global oil security.

What Constitutes The Success Or Failure Of Multinational Corporations (Mncs) In Foreign Markets? A Case Study Of Chinese And American Mncs, Shiwei Jiang

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

Scholars have identified multinational corporations (MNCs) as increasingly important and influential actors in international politics. However, mainstream international studies scholarship has failed to explain why MNCs succeed or fail in entering foreign markets. Market entry is a particularly vexing question for U.S. and Chinese firms seeking to compete for each other's consumers. As this study shows, surprising differences in success among U.S. firms in China, as well as Chinese firms in the U.S., suggest that statist and market factors interact with corporate strategies in confounding ways. Through case studies in the internet, automobile and fast food industries, this dissertation builds …

Fair Trade An Analysis Of The Effects On Poverty Alleviation And Empowerment For Women In Developing Countries, Maribel Concepcion Lora

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

This thesis approaches the economic development model of Fair Trade with a critical analysis on determining its success in alleviating poverty and empowering women of the developing world. Because international labor regulations are not consistently enforced in all producer countries, the Fair Trade model has established labor standards that ensure above all, a fair wage and safe working conditions for producers participating in the international market. As a recent strategy of economic development, Fair Trade has made great strides to empower poor producers in impoverished countries; however there has been limited analysis focused on its impact for improving the quality …

Political Economy Of Vietnam: Market Reform, Growth, And The State, Joshua M. Steinfeld, Khi V. Thai

School of Public Service Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Developments In The Global Energy Markets And Constructing The Future Of The Persian Gulf Security, Nihat Cengel

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

This study analyses the global energy projections and regional dynamics in the Persian Gulf. It is shown that the future projections in the world energy markets signify the importance of cooperation between developed and developing countries. It is also suggested that connected to the global economic crises and the regional demand change in the energy market, there is a growing need for international support to the Persian Gulf security.

I argue that the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) could play a crucial role for eliminating political conflicts and maintaining the regional stability. As a result, collective arm transfer to the region, …

Guardians Of The Countryside Public Choice Theory And The Farm Lobby In The Eu's Common Agricultural Policy, Amy J. Costa

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

Through various waves of reform, the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy remains inefficient without meeting all of its stated goals. The MacSherry reforms of 1992 resulted in the opposite of what leaders intended: higher spending and a growing bureaucracy. Later in the 1990s, Agenda 2000 slashed its originally planned cutbacks after farmers protested. Though support exists for reducing spending on agriculture, market intervention remains.

This thesis explores the problem through the use of public choice theory. -Consumers make too large a group to organize effectively or inform themselves about the issue, while farmers consist of a smaller group with well-defined …

Austerity, Abundance, And The Investor States: The Political Economy Of Sovereign Wealth Funds, Manda Shemirani

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) are not new, but their foreign investment created concerns among many states in 2005 and 2006. Many policy makers argued that the ownership of foreign governments in specific areas may expose their countries to various risks. The concerns in the United States were from a national security perspective, while Europe was more worried about the lack of reciprocity and established standards. The political economy literature lacks a suitable framework for the study of investor states. The mainstream economic view contends that SWFs are a result of balance of payments surpluses and are used for economic smoothing …

The Return Of Russia: Energy's Superpower Or Potemkin Village?, Greg R. Bayes

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

George Kennan's prediction of the Soviet Union's downfall may have, in retrospect, jinxed Russia on the one aspect that had historically worked in its favor: time. The confluence of time and space--brought about by an emphasis on territorial expansion-had greatly aided Russia when difficulties had rendered the variable of time indispensable. When confronted by the likes of Napoleon and Hitler, for example, Russia had at its disposal the luxury of always trading space for time. Although deprived of its empire, the issue of space is not an overarching concern for a Russia that today still spans from Vladivostok to St. …

Oil And Remittances In The Middle East, Azza El-Sharabassy

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation constructs a framework for understanding the determinants of remittances. It develops the effects of multiple macro economic variables in one area in the Middle East on the remittances flows and the future development of (another Arab neighboring country) Egypt. The framework will explore the relationship between oil prices and remittances from oil based economies (mainly Saudi-Arabia, Kuwait and the Arab Emirates) to a labor exporting country (Egypt). It also highlights the impact of multiple variables affecting the flow of remittances from labor exporting Arab countries: (1) Prices of oil. (2) Oil revenues. (3) Differentials in deposit interest rate …

The Impact Of Privatization On Economic Growth And Income Inequality In Developing Countries, Samuel Adams

School of Public Service Theses & Dissertations

In the 1960s and 1970s academicians, economists and politicians favored state ownership over private ownership in the production and provision of goods and services. By the end of the 1980s, however, there was a reversal of public policy from state domination of the production and provision of goods and services to private ownership and operation. This was due in part to what the World Bank referred to as "state failure”, which was characterized by inefficient service delivery, unprofitable SOEs, high government debt, and stagnant economic growth rates. Accordingly, privatization caught on in many countries as a policy tool to foster …

Divergent Opinions And Value Stock Performance, John A. Doukas

Finance Faculty Publications

Those who believe that capital markets—that is, markets for stocks and bonds—operate efficiently and asset prices fully reflect all publicly available information are engaged in an ongoing debate about the exact interpretation of the “value premium” with those who reject this view. Value premium refers to the superior returns generated by the purchase of value stocks relative to growth, or glamour, stocks. Rationalists, the group believing in market efficiency, argue that because value stocks are fundamentally riskier than growth stocks, the value premium is compensation for bearing risk. Behavioralists, the group arguing that market asset prices don’t reflect all publicly …

The Impact Of Trade Liberalization On Growth, Unemployment, And Poverty In Bangladesh, Maha Z. Mirza

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

Trade liberalization has been one of the major policy components of the governments of the developing countries in the recent decades. Bangladesh as many other developing nations, has adopted different measures of trade reform policies as an element of International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Structural Adjustment Program (SAP), as well as to be an integral part of the world wide trend of globalization. Such policy measures include the reduction/rationalization of tariff rate, simplification of import and export trade procedures, relaxation of restrictive trade policies, and reform of financial and monetary policies. Even though, the trade reform measures were anticipated to increase …

Globalization And The Paradox Of Incorporation And Marginalization: An Exploratory Note On Sub-Saharan Africa, Charles R. Lartey

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

Globalization has of late become the lingua franca of the study of the international political economic system. As its ideological counterpart, globalization has elevated neoliberalism to the status of an international theology. To harness the benefits of a globalizing world economy, conventional wisdom consider the dictums underlying neoliberal policies as “immutable laws” that must be adopted by both the developing and the developed world.

Utilizing a structured, focused analysis based on a case study of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), this research challenges the orthodox notion that the new international context of development that is instigated by the imperatives of globalization, and …

Relative Gains Problem And Case Studies Of Economic Cooperation In East Asia, Ping Deng

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

Relative gains problem basically means unequal cooperative payoffs disproportionately favoring partners. With the relative gains problem widely accepted as a serious impediment to international cooperation, some scholars have theoretically argued or modeled several conditions that are most likely to foster a state's sensitivity to relative gains and thus substantially affect the prospects for cooperation. But little empirical work has been done to date. The central objective of this dissertation is to test whether those theoretical propositions can be supported by empirical evidence. For this purpose, we have deducted three hypotheses: (1) If a state faces military threat and zero-sum political …

A Historical, Theoretical, And Empirical Study Of Ppp Using Traditional And Alternative Methodologies, Kerry E. Clendenon

Economics Theses & Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Bark Or Bite Perspectives On Economic Sanctions For Foreign Policy Objectives, Rodney W. Skotty

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

Economic sanctions have been used throughout history to coerce target nations to acquiesce in the objectives of nations that impose them. The record of achievement, using sanctions as a tool of foreign policy, has been poor. Regardless, nations continue to use economic sanctions to attain their goals despite their relative ineffectiveness. And as nations apply sanctions frequently to resolve international conflicts, such frequency tends to impair the credibility of sanctions as an implement of foreign policy. The fact that they are imposed frequently, also reflects that they are used to rectify lesser violations of the international norm. In view of …

An Empirical Test Of Linder's Trade Hypothesis, James Norman Carnes

Economics Theses & Dissertations

Attempts have been made recently to empirically test several theories of the basis of international trade. These efforts have been concentrated mainly on the empirical testing of the Heckscher-Ohlin and the classical international trade theorems. The results so obtained are both complementary and conflicting. Although a greater degree of empirical relevance has been observed in the Ricardian model than in the Heckscher-Ohlin theorem, so far no sophisticated effort appears to have been made at the empirical testing of Linder's trade hypothesis.

Linder's thesis is that a country cannot achieve comparative cost advantage in that line of production for which there …

The Neo-Classical Contributions To The Theory Of International Trade, Mohammed Arifeen

Economics Theses & Dissertations

In a dynamic economy some of the most challenging policy problems tend to originate in the realm of international economic relations. In the post World War II period, these problems have been intensified and become more complex. Students of international economics often feel perplexed by numerous divergent and diametric views that well-trained and prudent men frequently offer for the solutions of what appear to be rather simple problems. Lack of understanding of the theoretical framework of international trade is largely responsible for students' puzzlement.

It is the purpose of this thesis to assemble a minimum framework of the theoretical issues …